Chris Paddack’s Injury Necessitates Action for Twins

[Greggory Masterson]

Chris Paddack is on the injured list for the second time this month, and with the trade deadline less than a week away, his injury signals that it’s time for the Twins to stop pussyfooting around and make a move.

Image courtesy of © D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports

Throughout the first half, fans have frequently speculated about whether the Twins would be shopping in the starting pitcher department at the 2024 trade deadline. Chris Paddack’s recent forearm injury all but confirmed that they will be.

Paddack is in his first full season back from his second Tommy John surgery, and he already took a trip to the injured list at the end of June for arm fatigue. After returning ahead of the All-Star break, he started two games, but over the break, he felt some forearm soreness that re-shelved him.

Paddack’s season was somewhat wait-and-see. The Twins signed him to a low-end extension in 2023 as he recovered from Tommy John, because they saw something in the 28-year-old. Throughout his Twins (and Padres) career, there have been questions about his effectiveness, with high highs (such as his 2019 rookie season) and low lows (two torn UCLs).

This season has been a bit of the same story for Paddack, as he’s been inconsistent. He’s had great starts, like his eight innings of two-run ball against Cleveland in May; and he’s had terrible starts, like his five innings of nine-run ball against Baltimore in April. The Twins had four months to figure out who Paddack was.

Given that the team’s top three pitchers were already somewhat established coming into the season—some arrangement of Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober—it’s understandable that the club would be interested in slow-playing Paddack, letting him prove his worth. Now, though, he’s out through at least the deadline. They have all the information they’re going to get.

Internal replacements for Paddack are scarce. Simeon Woods Richardson has already replaced Louie Varland in the rotation, and Varland has not been promising as a starter in St. Paul this season. The only other pitcher to start a game for the Twins this year is rookie David Festa, whose two spot starts for Paddack left much to be desired. Other options internally would include Randy Dobnak, Caleb Boushley, or newly-promoted Triple-A starter Zebby Mathews.

But the Twins need someone who can start a playoff game, and Paddack, at this point, can’t be counted on for that. Woods Richardson would be the best bet, but there’s not a ton of confidence in the rookie, who has overperformed both his expectations and his expected numbers this year. If he does start in the playoffs, it would more likely be at the beginning of a bullpen-heavy game.

Making a trade for a Yusei Kikuchi, Nathan Eovaldi, or Jack Flaherty is the best way to counter this injury for Paddack and fill the playoff rotation spot. However, the injury and uncertainty might lower the bar for an acquisition below the Bailey Ober threshold.

It’s not sexy, but without Paddack, the Twins need to at least find someone who can throw competent innings down the stretch. Even if that pitcher doesn’t start a playoff game, or only goes once through the order, relying on some combination of Varland, Festa, and Dobnak to take the mound every fifth day is unbecoming of a team chasing Cleveland for the division. That opens the door for someone in the Michael Lorenzen or Tyler Anderson range. Even recently-waived James Paxton could be an option, if the goal is simply to find someone to throw innings down the stretch, a la 2023 Dallas Keuchel.

This discussion might seem like it’s ruling out a return for Paddack this season, but it’s not. Although we don’t have a timetable for his return, it’s possible that he recovers and is ready to pitch again this year. At this point, though, the Twins probably shouldn’t be planning on that. We’re weeks from that hypothetical (but not improbable) return, and by the time they have an answer, it might be too late. That’s not even factoring in potential injury to the rest of the rotation.

If Paddack is eventually back and healthy and the Twins have made a move to fill his spot in the rotation, there are a few different ways the rest of the season can go. First, as just mentioned, it’s possible that, by his return, the starting rotation (which has been largely healthy all year) is in need of an injury fill-in. That’s straightforward, though disappointing. Another disappointing option could be Paddack replacing Woods Richardson, while the rookie takes a few weeks to rest and consolidate in St. Paul as the season winds down. Paddack (as well as the rest of the rotation) is under contract for 2025, so it’s not like they’ll be cutting bait on him.

Another option may be a transition to the bullpen for the stretch run and postseason. Paddack agreed to play such a role last season, knowing he wouldn't have time to ramp up as a starter after rehabbing from the previous year's surgery. He only pitched five innings in relief across three appearances in the regular season, but he pitched well in the postseason, with two appearances totaling 3 2/3 innings, no runs, and six strikeouts. If he returns in mid-August and the rotation is full, that move might benefit the recovering pitcher whose 88 innings are already his most since 2021 (108) and the third-most of his six-year career.

No matter what the plan or outcome of Paddack’s latest injury may be, it’s clear that the Twins need to do something, and soon. They don’t have the luxury of being able to see into the future with Paddack’s arm. The odds of a move, big or small, went up drastically when Paddack hit the injured list again, which should excite fans who have been clamoring for a move (though we never celebrate an injury, of course).

Of course, all of this speculation is moot if the team is too hamstrung by budget constraints to add any players at all. Here's hoping that, given the fairly clear and increased degree of need at hand, the team is able to work around the financial constraints foisted on them by ownership, and that soon, we can stop talking about that at the end of this kind of article. The organization's voluntary self-defeat is no fun for anyone, from fans to the very people entrusted with building the team each year.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Depending on how they believe Paddack will respond and be able to come back, as well as how they see the last few months going with Woods Richardson, I could see a scenario where bringing in more than 1 starter could make sense. Hard to trust Paddack for SURE coming back, and Woods Richardson will go over his career high in innings after about 20 more innings total, so I have to think more depth here is a good thing at minimum. We'll see.

[thelanges5]

#1 Eovaldi - post season experience 

#2 Kikuchi - 10.1 k/9 lefty

#3 Anderson - lefty, not a lot of Ks but was an allstar

[Brandon]

Paxton because he is the easiest to make a cash neutral deal on.  

Kikuchi because he is next on the easiest to make cash neutral list.  

Eovaldi or Heaney after that.  

[Linus]

Here’s the thing. It seems the focus on Paddack relates to injury concerns which are true. My take is the guy isn’t that good. He is not the kind of starter that you wait around for because the production is worth the wait. Go get a starter and worry about Paddack later. 

[Jocko87]

Are you making the case they need 4 postseason starters?  Or the case that internal options for the Dallas Kuechel role are scarce?

Neither are the case.  The bar to clear for a starter acquisition is very high.  Better than Joe Ryan is the minimum level, and that guy better come with some control beyond the fall.

[Parfigliano]

5 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Are you making the case they need 4 postseason starters?  Or the case that internal options for the Dallas Kuechel role are scarce?

Neither are the case.  The bar to clear for a starter acquisition is very high.  Better than Joe Ryan is the minimum level, and that guy better come with some control beyond the fall.

Better then Ryan probably means more money and the Twins arent going there.

[tony&rodney]

Well, I hope people are not surprised if no pitcher is added.

[bean5302]

I'm not alone in that the likelihood I renew season tickets for next year may well hinge on the Twins' trade deadline moves to add a legitimate playoff rotation arm.

Another solid start from Blake Snell last night. He's the guy the Twins should be targeting. Not a career #4-5 guy. Snell's on a $15MM salary this year, and it's highly likely he opts out of his contract. The Giants are 48-53.

[chpettit19]

49 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Are you making the case they need 4 postseason starters?  Or the case that internal options for the Dallas Kuechel role are scarce?

Neither are the case.  The bar to clear for a starter acquisition is very high.  Better than Joe Ryan is the minimum level, and that guy better come with some control beyond the fall.

They don't NEED 4 postseason starters, but it sure would be nice. After the wild card round you need 4 starters, or 3 with a bullpen game if you want to do that. But the same 3 guys can't start every playoff game if you're planning a deep run. And if one of Lopez, Ryan, or Ober goes down (I assume those are the 3 everyone is counting on) you're then down to 2 playoff quality starters and bullpen games from there on out. That's a real bold risk if you're planning to go deep into October.

I'd say better (more reliable/trustworthy/established?) than SWR is the current bar. And it's highly unlikely they take on anyone with control because of their apparent payroll situation moving forward.

[USAFChief]

26 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Another solid start from Blake Snell last night. He's the guy the Twins should be targeting.

I've been on this train for a couple weeks now.

Make it so.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Well, I hope people are not surprised if no pitcher is added.

surprised? not really, pissed and disappointed, yup.

[Jocko87]

53 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

They don't NEED 4 postseason starters, but it sure would be nice. After the wild card round you need 4 starters, or 3 with a bullpen game if you want to do that. But the same 3 guys can't start every playoff game if you're planning a deep run. And if one of Lopez, Ryan, or Ober goes down (I assume those are the 3 everyone is counting on) you're then down to 2 playoff quality starters and bullpen games from there on out. That's a real bold risk if you're planning to go deep into October.

I'd say better (more reliable/trustworthy/established?) than SWR is the current bar. And it's highly unlikely they take on anyone with control because of their apparent payroll situation moving forward.

But that's why the bar is much higher for an additional starter.  If Paddack is healthy he likely gets a start.  SWR can also start a postseason game.  

Nothing short of the acquisition of Nolan Gibson or Max Scherzer is going to change what they ask for from a postseason starter outside Pablo.  From the law firm of Ryan, Ober, Paddack and SWR they are doing 4-5 innings at most and then heavy bullpen.  Almost anyone they aquire will have the same limitations.

This is a classic what we might do vs what is in their range of actually doing.  We know to probably a 90th percentile what their range of options are.  They aren't scared of making a move, but it's gotta be a very clear slam dunk upgrade.

[Whitey333]

It's highly unlikely the Twins add to payroll.  They may even cut it some more.  The only way would be to dump salary to take on salary or get significant cash back in a deal.  Then they can complain about not enough fans coming to the park and do the normal thing they do.  That is to blame the fans for their own undoing.  That's the Twins way.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I'm not alone in that the likelihood I renew season tickets for next year may well hinge on the Twins' trade deadline moves to add a legitimate playoff rotation arm.

Another solid start from Blake Snell last night. He's the guy the Twins should be targeting. Not a career #4-5 guy. Snell's on a $15MM salary this year, and it's highly likely he opts out of his contract. The Giants are 48-53.

My biggest concern with Snell has always been he runs up his pitch count and can have short starts. If you look at his game logs, if he goes 6 innings most of the time he is above the 100 pitch total. would the Twins run him out there for the 6th or 7th with a pitch count already in the 90's?

Last year he averaged 5 2/3 innings and 99 pitches a game.

This year 4 2/3 inning and 83 pitches, (His last 3 starts have been much, much better)

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, Parfigliano said:

Better then Ryan probably means more money and the Twins arent going there.

That is not in evidence. 

Not spending in the offseason makes spending at the deadline more likely, not less.  

Maybe counterintuitive but why would a business spend extra money months before it was needed?  The picture of what they have and want and need is much clearer now, making the spend more exact.  It might cost more in prospects, but that account is in good shape.  Dollar cost is less for less time.  

It's the smart "right sizing" move.  We don't have to like it.

One big move might erase all the offseason angst as well.  Marketing department be danged. 

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

But that's why the bar is much higher for an additional starter.  If Paddack is healthy he likely gets a start.  SWR can also start a postseason game.  

Nothing short of the acquisition of Nolan Gibson or Max Scherzer is going to change what they ask for from a postseason starter outside Pablo.  From the law firm of Ryan, Ober, Paddack and SWR they are doing 4-5 innings at most and then heavy bullpen.  Almost anyone they aquire will have the same limitations.

This is a classic what we might do vs what is in their range of actually doing.  We know to probably a 90th percentile what their range of options are.  They aren't scared of making a move, but it's gotta be a very clear slam dunk upgrade.

Fair. I really hope they aren't actually planning on only 4-5 innings at most out of Ryan and Ober, though. They definitely need to add somebody who can go multiple innings then if that's the case. You can't rely on half your playoff innings coming from 1 inning guys. If they don't think Ryan and Ober are good enough to be legit playoff starters (not saying they are or aren't, just what the Twins believe) they need to make a massive swing. I think we're agreeing on that.

I'm not sure they don't see Ryan and Ober as more than a 4 or 5 inning arm, though. I could make a pretty solid argument that Ober is their best starter right now. If he's a twice through the order guy in the playoffs (may be, the longball scares me with all 3 of their starters) they're in trouble. The pen is good, but they can't go 3 straight playoff games having to cover 4+ innings each time.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

That is not in evidence. 

Not spending in the offseason makes spending at the deadline more likely, not less.  

Maybe counterintuitive but why would a business spend extra money months before it was needed?  The picture of what they have and want and need is much clearer now, making the spend more exact.  It might cost more in prospects, but that account is in good shape.  Dollar cost is less for less time.  

It's the smart "right sizing" move.  We don't have to like it.

One big move might erase all the offseason angst as well.  Marketing department be danged. 

Except they're likely making less money than they'd planned, unless you think they were planning on losing attendance this year. They're down over 50k fans to this point year over year. That's millions of dollars lost over the course of the season in attendance based revenue. By all accounts they were counting on hitting 2 million fans this year. That would be an increase from last year. Instead they're looking at 75-85k less. Find it hard to believe they sat on a significant amount of money coming into the year and are looking to spend more when they're likely not even on target to hit their projections.

[Jocko87]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

Fair. I really hope they aren't actually planning on only 4-5 innings at most out of Ryan and Ober, though. They definitely need to add somebody who can go multiple innings then if that's the case. You can't rely on half your playoff innings coming from 1 inning guys. If they don't think Ryan and Ober are good enough to be legit playoff starters (not saying they are or aren't, just what the Twins believe) they need to make a massive swing. I think we're agreeing on that.

I'm not sure they don't see Ryan and Ober as more than a 4 or 5 inning arm, though. I could make a pretty solid argument that Ober is their best starter right now. If he's a twice through the order guy in the playoffs (may be, the longball scares me with all 3 of their starters) they're in trouble. The pen is good, but they can't go 3 straight playoff games having to cover 4+ innings each time.

I think they would let Ryan and Ober go longer if they are on their game.  I'm fine with that too.  I still see the plan for the bullpen to be a postseason weapon coming together as a substitute for a big starter.  If any of the top three struggles it will be a long day anyway so a pen that can handle 6 innings is pretty critical to give the offense a chance.

I could see a game with two from Paddack and SWR and two from Festa/Varland or something like that again.  

You can't ride the bullpen for the whole postseason but 6-7 solid arms make all the options available.  

[Jocko87]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Except they're likely making less money than they'd planned, unless you think they were planning on losing attendance this year. They're down over 50k fans to this point year over year. That's millions of dollars lost over the course of the season in attendance based revenue. By all accounts they were counting on hitting 2 million fans this year. That would be an increase from last year. Instead they're looking at 75-85k less. Find it hard to believe they sat on a significant amount of money coming into the year and are looking to spend more when they're likely not even on target to hit their projections.

Agreed, but it doesn't change the strategy, only the amount available to spend.  I have no reason to believe they sat on a significant amount of money in the offseason that was any amount higher than typical reserves for these type of things.  We also aren't sure they are even getting all the TV money they thought they would get.

It could be very bleak in Kip Elliotts office right now.  They still have the prospect account to spend from though.  

[DJL44]

20 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

By all accounts they were counting on hitting 2 million fans this year. That would be an increase from last year. Instead they're looking at 75-85k less. 

Watch how much attendance tanks if they're out of the wild card race in September. It could be 150k less.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Better than Joe Ryan is the minimum level, and that guy better come with some control beyond the fall.

They would need to trade Royce Lewis to get that.

[Major League Ready]

39 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Except they're likely making less money than they'd planned, unless you think they were planning on losing attendance this year. They're down over 50k fans to this point year over year. That's millions of dollars lost over the course of the season in attendance based revenue. By all accounts they were counting on hitting 2 million fans this year. That would be an increase from last year. Instead they're looking at 75-85k less. Find it hard to believe they sat on a significant amount of money coming into the year and are looking to spend more when they're likely not even on target to hit their projections.

There are a lot of assumptions here we can't validate.  The first one is that they spent all of their allocated budget.  It's quite possible for example that they had a budget of $130M and the additions they felt fit best left them with a little extra.  It's also possible the TV deal was a little better than they expected but by the time they figured that out the roster had been constructed.  We also don't really know what they forecasted for attendance.  It's quite possible that their messaging was they were hoping for 2M fans while they used 1.9 for constructing a budget.   

The attendance deficit you cited was also decreased by about 38,000 in the just the last 3 games.  With Lewis, Correa, Miranda, and Stewart all back very soon, they might believe they can still beat last year's attendance, especially with an addition that boosts fan confidence in this team.  

I don't know what they projected or budgeted either.  You might be spot on but we all just guessing.

[Road trip]

19 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

I think they would let Ryan and Ober go longer if they are on their game.  I'm fine with that too.  I still see the plan for the bullpen to be a postseason weapon coming together as a substitute for a big starter.  If any of the top three struggles it will be a long day anyway so a pen that can handle 6 innings is pretty critical to give the offense a chance.

I could see a game with two from Paddack and SWR and two from Festa/Varland or something like that again.  

You can't ride the bullpen for the whole postseason but 6-7 solid arms make all the options available.  

I agree, if the Twins don't have starters that can go deep they could ride the pen.  There are a lot of off days in the playoffs.  The traditional approach is to find dominant starters, but the Rangers pretty much rode their bullpen all postseason.  After the wildcard round (where they dominated and won quickly) roughly half of the innings thrown were from the bullpen... that's a pretty hard ride.  It worked out pretty well for them...

But I'd still like another solid starter, assuming the price is right.

[Pat]

All their lack of activity in the off season is coming back to haunt them. 

[NYCTK]

This idea that the Rangers are looking to sell Eovaldi is a three week old idea. They sit 4 games behind in the AL West and 7.5 from the 3rd WC. And they aren't in a rebuild phase, so why would they make their 2025 team weaker?

They'd have to get blown away with an offer. We're talking Brooks Lee, minimum. 

[big dog]

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

 

Nothing short of the acquisition of Nolan Gibson or Max Scherzer is going to change what they ask for from a postseason starter outside Pablo.  

 

Who the heck is Nolan Gibson?

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

They would need to trade Royce Lewis to get that.

It depends on how valuable you view Royce Lewis. It depends on 3 things. 
Control years.
Expected performance.
Expected future salary.

Zac Gallen for Eddie Julien straight up would be about right by Baseballtradevalues. I'd make that trade all day every day, but the Diamondback's GM just said they expect to be buyers, and they're especially interested in controlled starters. So are the Dodgers and some other teams out there. The Twins are probably in a better spot looking for rentals due to the future payroll considerations with Correa, Lopez and Buxton eating up $70MM on their own next year.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Pat said:

All their lack of activity in the off season is coming back to haunt them. 

While I agree Falvey botched the offseason going back to quantity over quality, what were you expecting the Twins to add? The Twins essentially added Farmer, Margot, Santana, Topa, Jackson, Okert, Desclafani, and Staumont off the top of my head. They were fairly active this offseason, they just didn't make the right moves IMHO. The payroll was right around where people expected after November's announcement. $125-135MM.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

My biggest concern with Snell has always been he runs up his pitch count and can have short starts. If you look at his game logs, if he goes 6 innings most of the time he is above the 100 pitch total. would the Twins run him out there for the 6th or 7th with a pitch count already in the 90's?

Last year he averaged 5 2/3 innings and 99 pitches a game.

This year 4 2/3 inning and 83 pitches, (His last 3 starts have been much, much better)

Snell throws a lot of balls and walks quite a few guys, but he owns a career 3.31 ERA and 3.46 FIP, is left handed, and can completely dominate even good teams. Snell entered the season without any spring training, signing with the Giants on March 20th. Snell was aggressive at being part of the rotation right away, and his overconfidence simulated games were equivalent to game action really showed. I wouldn't be interested in Snell if he were still pitching like Montgomery was. He's now looking like the potentially elite arm the Twins need, and the Twins should be aggressive at acquiring him.

The Giants have hinted it'd be valuable to them to get Snell off the books for future luxury tax reasons, and Snell's struggles out of the gate and lingering risk of the $30MM player option should keep his value lower. If the Twins can't make this type of deal, I'll be hoping it's Falvey's last year here.