Edouard Julien Returns. What Can We Expect?

[Nick Nelson]

All things considered, the Twins offense had a very successful first half. And they did it without much contribution from arguably their best hitter a year ago.

Now that he's back from the minors – called up on Saturday to replace an injured Carlos Correa in the infield – can Edouard Julien recapture his 2023 form?

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

Last year, after his permanent promotion from Triple-A in mid-May, Edouard Julien was the straw that stirred the drink for the Minnesota Twins offense. He was the leadoff man for a top-notch lineup, posting a stellar .366 wOBA and ranking second among positon players in fWAR, behind only Max Kepler. 

Julien's immediate success in the majors was surprising, in a way, but also not. It's simply the continuation of a trend we've seen throughout his baseball career: he hits, everywhere. In college, in the minors, in spring training, in the World Baseball Classic, in the major leagues, in the postseason: no matter the setting, Julien has produced.

That's what makes his 2024 season so jarring. We've never seen Julien fail like this. And to be clear, I use "fail" in a relative sense because he was sent down with a 91 OPS+, meaning he was just 9% worse than the average MLB hitter. But it is Julien's performance since the demotion that really raises concern. In 35 games at Triple-A, he has slashed .233/.400/.380. He got on base at an exceptional rate in the land of automated balls and strikes, but remained unable to generate much power at all.

Over the past calendar month, Julien has an .850 OPS, but it's been driven almost entirely by walks. He has just five extra-base hits (two doubles, three homers) in 95 plate appearances during that span. And this is an environment where power is plentiful. We saw what guys like Matt Wallner and Brooks Lee did the pitching in this league.

So Julien returns to the Twins as a major question mark. He hasn't visibly resolved the issues that plagued him early in the season, although it could be viewed as a positive that he's homered three times in the past nine games and has a .528 slugging percentage in July. It's a small sample but has the makings of an upward trend.

 

You'd like to see the momentum develop a bit more, and I'm sure the Twins would have preferred it, but they didn't have much choice in the matter. He's clearly their highest-upside play in the absence of Carlos Correa, because we know from the long-term track record what a dominant hitter Julien can be. 

Presumably, the plan is to let the 25-year-old get some looks in the lower part of the order against right-handed pitchers, to take the pressure off and help him revive his aggressiveness in the box. If Julien can find it again, he'd be a massive difference-maker for an already elite lineup. With Correa sidelined, the Twins could badly use that jolt.

What are your expectations for Edouard Julien in his return to the Twins lineup? Sound off in the comments.

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[stringer bell]

Julien didn’t exactly force his way back, but it figures that he is back and he’ll play quite a bit. 

[Patzky]

Disappointment that Correa is IL but it's smart for the long haul. Imagine a week from now when Royce and Lewis return.. hope we don't slip until then. 

[KirbyHawk75]

2 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Disappointment that Correa is IL but it's smart for the long haul. Imagine a week from now when Royce and Lewis return.. hope we don't slip until then. 

Is that when they will be back?  I can't wait to watch Royce and Lee together.  

[stringer bell]

7 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Disappointment that Correa is IL but it's smart for the long haul. Imagine a week from now when Royce and Lewis return.. hope we don't slip until then. 

Did we clone him? j/k. You mean Lewis and Correa, I presume. 

[tony&rodney]

Time for the young guns to step up. Correa has been really good this year on both sides of the ball and he cannot be replaced. The only antidote is for multiple players to have consistently strong performances. The time to gain is now with a bunch of home games coming in August. 

Julien is just a part of the group that needs to step forward. 

[wabene]

It's not out of the question that Julien has a good run. He's at second, Lee at short and Castro at 3rd. Miranda back tomorrow.

[DJL44]

37 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Did we clone him? j/k. You mean Lewis and Correa, I presume. 

I thought he meant Lewis and Miranda

[DJL44]

Kikuchi gave up 4 runs in 5 innings vs the Tigers. 8K 2BB. Looks like every game is free on MLB.TV again today.

[stringer bell]

31 minutes ago, wabene said:

It's not out of the question that Julien has a good run. He's at second, Lee at short and Castro at 3rd. Miranda back tomorrow.

It looks like Willi will get the most reps as SS in Correa's absence. Nobody is saying for sure, but I think Miranda will be back tomorrow. 

[DocBauer]

Just my opinion broke down in two parts:

1} While Julien hasn't set the world on fire at AAA....though better the past 30 days or so...the OB% shows me his approach is still intact. And I find his approach to be sound:  be patient, work the count/pitcher, and take the BB if it's there, but look for something to make solid contact on.

2} I believe Julien is a natural hitter. Not saying he doesn't work hard, but some guys have a good, natural swing and good eye and some don't. As pointed out in Nick's OP, he hit in college, he hit in the minors, he's hit at the ML level, he's hit anywhere and everywhere until he struggled the first month of this year. I'm not saying it's GOING to happen, but I can see the focus and the energy suddenly rising in Julien as he steps in to a ML batter's box for the first time in months and things just sort of snap back in to place.

Yes, maybe wishful thinking. Then again, he's hit anywhere and everywhere before. If his mental set is right, why can't he begin hitting at, or close to the level, we saw last year? Not saying he's going 3 for 4 with a HR his first game back, but I expect him to be a lot closer to the version we saw last year than what we saw at the beginning of this one. 

[bean5302]

MLBTR is reporting Castro will handle primary SS duties. Austin Martin was activated from the IL so I suspect he'll have primary backup for Buxton.

Julien's swing has produced 3 HRs over the past 10 games so it seems like his power stroke might be returning. I don't think he's going to be as good as his production numbers from last year, but Julien playing well over the next couple weeks probably means a Kyle Farmer DFA.
 

[stringer bell]

6 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Just my opinion broke down in two parts:

1} While Julien hasn't set the world on fire at AAA....though better the past 30 days or so...the OB% shows me his approach is still intact. And I find his approach to be sound:  be patient, work the count/pitcher, and take the BB if it's there, but look for something to make solid contact on.

2} I believe Julien is a natural hitter. Not saying he doesn't work hard, but some guys have a good, natural swing and good eye and some don't. As pointed out in Nick's OP, he hit in college, he hit in the minors, he's hit at the ML level, he's hit anywhere and everywhere until he struggled the first month of this year. I'm not saying it's GOING to happen, but I can see the focus and the energy suddenly rising in Julien as he steps in to a ML batter's box for the first time in months and things just sort of snap back in to place.

Yes, maybe wishful thinking. Then again, he's hit anywhere and everywhere before. If his mental set is right, why can't he begin hitting at, or close to the level, we saw last year? Not saying he's going 3 for 4 with a HR his first game back, but I expect him to be a lot closer to the version we saw last year than what we saw at the beginning of this one. 

Nit pick here. Julien hit the skids in May, his first month was pretty good (.830 OPS). Julien had only one extra base hit after May 1 (a double).

[RpR]

19 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Nit pick here. Julien hit the skids in May, his first month was pretty good (.830 OPS). Julien had only one extra base hit after May 1 (a double).

His Minor League numbers, with very cloe to the same Plate apperences is down in 2024 from 2023, his single and double rate way down.

His fielding preformance is way down from 2023.

He is not back due to playing performance.

[stringer bell]

8 minutes ago, RpR said:

His fielding preformance is way down from 2023.

According to what? Fielding percentage? Have you been watching Julien play at St. Paul (I haven't). I'll say this one more time, basing someone's defense on small sample sizes and fielding percentages is a fool's errand. 

[Brandon]

49 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

MLBTR is reporting Castro will handle primary SS duties. Austin Martin was activated from the IL so I suspect he'll have primary backup for Buxton.

Julien's swing has produced 3 HRs over the past 10 games so it seems like his power stroke might be returning. I don't think he's going to be as good as his production numbers from last year, but Julien playing well over the next couple weeks probably means a Kyle Farmer DFA.
 

With Kyle Farmer, I can see the Twins trying to include him in a trade to get salary off the books.  Or replace in coming salary.  I doubt they DFA him.  

[RpR]

23 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

According to what? Fielding percentage? Have you been watching Julien play at St. Paul (I haven't). I'll say this one more time, basing someone's defense on small sample sizes and fielding percentages is a fool's errand. 

Wishful thinking is a fools errand; numbers as recorded by MLB are real.

If he sucks in a small sample  by what mystic spell is he going to suddenly get better.😋

[stringer bell]

15 minutes ago, RpR said:

Wishful thinking is a fools errand; numbers as recorded by MLB are real.

If he sucks in a small sample  by what mystic spell is he going to suddenly get better.😋

All right, so in the six games José Miranda has played first base, he is errorless and according to BBRef, he has two runs saved which projects to 36 runs saved over a full season. I guess Santana is no longer the best choice to play first base. 

Another example is Brooks Lee. He looked very good, made several nice plays, but made a throwing error at second base, according to your figuring, I guess it means we should never put Lee at second again. 

[stringer bell]

37 minutes ago, Brandon said:

With Kyle Farmer, I can see the Twins trying to include him in a trade to get salary off the books.  Or replace in coming salary.  I doubt they DFA him.  

Who wants Kyle Farmer for $2M for the rest of the year, much less getting something back for him?

[Shaitan]

32 minutes ago, RpR said:

Wishful thinking is a fools errand; numbers as recorded by MLB are real.

If he sucks in a small sample  by what mystic spell is he going to suddenly get better.😋

Here's a whole discussion about that 

 

[Bodie]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

According to what? Fielding percentage? Have you been watching Julien play at St. Paul (I haven't). I'll say this one more time, basing someone's defense on small sample sizes and fielding percentages is a fool's errand. 

How about last season then?

He was below average (some would just say bad, me included) everywhere he played. No "statistics" can make it otherwise. 

That said, nothing says he can't improve in the field (playing a regular position would help simply due to repetition).  Jeffers wasn't simply below average his first season, he was utterly overmatched - a true emergency catcher.  He has worked hard and improved significantly.  No real reason that Julien can't do something along those lines.  An average defensive 2B who hits .280 will have a career as long as the body holds up!

[DJL44]

Radio update from Gladden. Miranda should be back tomorrow. Royce should get a rehab assignment within a week.

[tony&rodney]

Julien is the focus of the question. Edouard has always hit and he should be fine. The Twins need a larger contingent  to contribute. There has been quite a dropoff this year from Jeffers and Kepler and inexperienced players like Miranda, Lewis, Lee, Martin, Larnach, and Wallner need to step forward as well. Buxton has been decent thus far in 2024, but only Correa and Castro have been truly above average. The offense needs those highly drafted guys to produce or the season will crater.

[RpR]

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

All right, so in the six games José Miranda has played first base, he is errorless and according to BBRef, he has two runs saved which projects to 36 runs saved over a full season. I guess Santana is no longer the best choice to play first base. 

Another example is Brooks Lee. He looked very good, made several nice plays, but made a throwing error at second base, according to your figuring, I guess it means we should never put Lee at second again. 

Call MLB they are he ones that print figures on a player plus and minus; right now Eddy is Minus.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Bodie said:

How about last season then?

He was below average (some would just say bad, me included) everywhere he played. No "statistics" can make it otherwise. 

That said, nothing says he can't improve in the field (playing a regular position would help simply due to repetition).  Jeffers wasn't simply below average his first season, he was utterly overmatched - a true emergency catcher.  He has worked hard and improved significantly.  No real reason that Julien can't do something along those lines.  An average defensive 2B who hits .280 will have a career as long as the body holds up!

Last season was last season; then  Cave, Rooker, Sano, Gordon should still be here; maybe when they are 35 a decision can be made.

Jeffers has changed little if any, it is his bat more than his glove that has problems.

Julien's defense fell apart in the Minors; Zero reason to think it will by a miracle get better in the Majors.

 

[JD-TWINS]

4 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Just my opinion broke down in two parts:

1} While Julien hasn't set the world on fire at AAA....though better the past 30 days or so...the OB% shows me his approach is still intact. And I find his approach to be sound:  be patient, work the count/pitcher, and take the BB if it's there, but look for something to make solid contact on.

2} I believe Julien is a natural hitter. Not saying he doesn't work hard, but some guys have a good, natural swing and good eye and some don't. As pointed out in Nick's OP, he hit in college, he hit in the minors, he's hit at the ML level, he's hit anywhere and everywhere until he struggled the first month of this year. I'm not saying it's GOING to happen, but I can see the focus and the energy suddenly rising in Julien as he steps in to a ML batter's box for the first time in months and things just sort of snap back in to place.

Yes, maybe wishful thinking. Then again, he's hit anywhere and everywhere before. If his mental set is right, why can't he begin hitting at, or close to the level, we saw last year? Not saying he's going 3 for 4 with a HR his first game back, but I expect him to be a lot closer to the version we saw last year than what we saw at the beginning of this one. 

He hit great for a month - 7 HR by April 27th. Then he went into the tank. In total, struck out at a 40% rate into early June……,hitting .204 with no more HR after April 27.

He needs to regain some aggressiveness on pitches in the zone, along with some better success with contact. Can’t hit .233 and rely on BB to carry your OBP. MLB pitchers will throw strikes if they don’t think you can hurt them with your bat!

I think he’ll be OK long-term but he may need to see a Sports Psychologist in the off-season because he has some mental issues in the box. Maybe he’s on the way to getting right but from what I read above, it’s not real positive to date in St Paul…….gotta say 3 HR’s in last 9 games does sound like a step in the right direction……..he needs to get XBH coupled with all of his walks.

Said this last year - just an opinion based on body language and outcomes - he seems arrogant to me. Last year I said, and still believe, he acts like he’s Ted Williams……meaning his fine eye for balls and strikes should get the same respect Ted used to get. Not realistic. ……there’s a fine line between being confident and being arrogant, & to me, Eddie’s on the edge.

[USAFChief]

We can expect Rocco to pinch hit for him in the middle innings.

 

[Karbo]

11 hours ago, Bodie said:

How about last season then?

He was below average (some would just say bad, me included) everywhere he played. No "statistics" can make it otherwise. 

That said, nothing says he can't improve in the field (playing a regular position would help simply due to repetition).  Jeffers wasn't simply below average his first season, he was utterly overmatched - a true emergency catcher.  He has worked hard and improved significantly.  No real reason that Julien can't do something along those lines.  An average defensive 2B who hits .280 will have a career as long as the body holds up!

He looked very good at 2nd last night. The kid has worked very hard at his defense, and it looks to be paying off. I'm more interested in how well he hits!

[Doctor Gast]

I've seen a lot of positives from Julien. #1 fewer SOs, I believe that is his main focus. Because of that I don't expect many HRs until he really feels comfortable with his new approach on the MLB level. #2 I've been a big critic of Julien's defense at 2B. & I haven't seen anything to support his improvement until yesterday. He got a good jump on a GB & showed good range while completing a play. So I congratulate him on a job well done on the fruits of his efforts.

[Parfigliano]

10 hours ago, USAFChief said:

We can expect Rocco to pinch hit for him in the middle innings.

 

Funny because its true.  PH will end games with more ABs then Julian too.