Cody Christie’s Post-Draft Top 10 Minnesota Twins Prospects

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota has a strong farm system, and this week’s MLB Draft added considerably more talent to the organization. Here’s how the team’s top 10 prospects rank for me, as the second half begins and the trade deadline approaches.

Image courtesy of William Parmeter (photo of Walker Jenkins)

In each of the last two seasons, the Twins had a top-10 draft pick who immediately jumped into the conversation as the team’s top prospect. Two years ago, Brooks Lee was taken with the eighth overall pick, after he fell to the Twins amid some early-round surprises. Last season, Minnesota had the fifth overall pick, and used it to select Walker Jenkins. Both names continue to rank well on national lists and are featured on the list below. So, where does this year’s first-round pick fall among their top prospects?

Twins Daily consistently updates the prospect rankings to reflect players rising and falling throughout the season. Create your own Twins Daily account to help vote for the team’s top prospects when the list is updated.

10. Zebby Matthews, SP
2024 Level: High-A, Double-A, (and now Triple-A!)
The Twins took Matthews with their 8th-round pick in 2022, and he’s having a breakout season this year. In 14 appearances (78 innings), he has posted a 1.85 ERA, with a 0.76 WHIP and a 91-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. As his walk rate and that WHIP indicate, Matthews pounds the strike zone and has arguably the best command in the Twins’ system. 

9. Charlee Soto, SP
2024 Level: Low-A
Minnesota’s front office has tended to draft college pitchers, but Soto inspired them to break that mold. He was taken with the 34th overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft and made his professional debut at Low-A this season. In 15 games, he has a 5.73 ERA with a 1.60 WHIP. However, he is over four years younger than the average age of the competition in the Florida State League, and his recent starts have pointed to better results.

8. Kaelen Culpepper, SS
2024 Level: TBD
The Twins selected Culpepper with the 21st overall pick earlier this week. He moved from third base to shortstop for his junior season at Kansas State University, and there is hope that his athleticism will allow him to stick at the position. He hit .328/.419/.574, with 11 home runs, 35 walks and 41 strikeouts in 61 games this year. He has the potential to be a five-tool player, but the Twins will need to unlock some of his power potential after he signs. 

7. Luke Keaschall, IF
2024 Level: High-A, Double-A
After being one of the fastest-rising prospects in the system, Keaschall represented the Twins organization in MLB’s Futures Game over the weekend. The Twins drafted him in the second round in 2023, and he’s already reached Double-A. In 84 games, he is hitting .327/.438/.506, with 21 doubles and 11 home runs. Defensively, he is splitting time between second base and center field, which should help him reach the big leagues even quicker if he continues to hit at a high level.

6. Marco Raya, SP
2024 Level: Double-A
Raya continues to be a challenging prospect to rank because of how cautious the Twins have been with his usage. At the end of June, I argued that it was time for Minnesota to change how they handled Raya. In 15 starts (50 innings), he has posted a 5.40 ERA, with a 1.52 WHIP and a 28.4 K%. He’s pitched into the fifth inning in two starts, with over half of his starts being shorter than four innings. Raya must build up his workload to be considered a starting pitching prospect. 

5. Gabriel Gonzalez, OF
2024 Level: High-A
González was a borderline top-100 prospect when the Twins acquired him as part of the deal for Jorge Polanco. He missed time this season due to injury, and has struggled to replicate the numbers he had in 2023. In 40 games, he has posted a .732 OPS, over 100 points lower than last season. As a 20-year-old, he is over two years younger than the average age of players in the Midwest League. There is still room for him to add more power, which might help him move up this list in future years.

4. David Festa, SP
2024 Level: Triple-A, MLB
Twins fans got a first-hand view of Festa when he made his big-league debut earlier this season. He struggled in two games, but his performance improved during his time at Triple-A. In 15 starts, he has a 4.03 ERA, with a 1.36 WHIP and 34.9 K%. He wasn’t missing enough bats during the first call-up, but he did a good job limiting walks, which he struggled with in the minors. Festa has the ceiling to be a mid-rotation starter, which provides long-term value. 

3. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF
2024 Level: Double-A
Rodriguez is one of the most exciting prospects in the Twins organization, but he has missed time over the last three seasons due to multiple injuries. He suffered a knee injury in 2022, an abdominal strain in 2023, and a thumb injury this season. When healthy, he has demolished the ball at Double-A, with a 1.100 OPS and nearly as many walks (42) as strikeouts (46). Rodriguez must find a way to avoid the injured list so he can continue developing in the upper minors. 

2. Brooks Lee, SS
2024 Level: Triple-A, MLB
Lee has already shown fans why the Twins were so excited that he fell to them with the eighth overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft. In his first 11 games as a big-leaguer, he has gone 12-for-44 (.273 BA), with three extra-base hits and a 109 OPS+. Lee, a switch-hitter, revamped his swing from the right side over the winter and has already exceeded his extra-base hit total from last season as a righty. Lee is clearly part of the team’s long-term plans, with his long-term defensive home still up in the air. 

1. Walker Jenkins, OF
2024 Level: Low-A
In Fort Myers’s season opener on Apr. 5, Jenkins suffered a hamstring injury, and he went on to miss nearly two months. In 26 games, he has hit .260/.385/.375 with five doubles and two home runs. Some fans may be disappointed by those totals, but the team is being cautious with him as he comes back from the IL. Last season, he posted a .988 OPS in 26 games during his pro debut. There is a long way to go before he will reach Target Field, but his first season in the organization has seen plenty of positives.

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Do you agree with Culpepper’s placement among the team’s top 10 prospects? Should someone else make the above rankings? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Gotta say, I have a really hard time having Raya in the top 10 at all anymore. I'm also not super high on Gonzalez anymore either.

Zebby and Keaschall, to me, are easily above either of those 2, and I'd almost make a case for both of them being ahead of Festa, or at least they are very close. Frankly, I may even put Culpepper (Kaelen) ahead of Raya too. 

Fun to read.

[FlyingFinn]

Gonzalez is the only one I disagree with. His bat has to be great, even at this young age, as his defense and other tools aren't his calling card. At this point, I'm not seeing a great bat either.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

Zebby should be no lower than 5, pushing for #4. Gonzalez is certainly too high, not to say I'm out on him but he's outside their top 10 hitting prospects in my opinion. 

[DJL44]

Quote

Raya must build up his workload to be considered a starting pitching prospect. 

He also needs to pitch well. Right now he's being handled like an egg and throwing rotten.

[EGFTShaw]

1 hour ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Zebby should be no lower than 5, pushing for #4. Gonzalez is certainly too high, not to say I'm out on him but he's outside their top 10 hitting prospects in my opinion. 

Yeah, I didn't understand how low Zebby was given he is now at AAA and has the best stats across the MN farm system, I'd put him at #4.

[DJL44]

Andrew Morris is 22 and pitching great in Double-A, doesn't get noticed. Marco Raya is 21 and pitching poorly in Double-A, gets all sorts of attention. In Double-A it doesn't matter anymore where you were drafted.

[DJL44]

1) Jenkins

2) Lee (though he's probably coming off the list soon)

3) Rodriguez

4) Festa

5) Matthews

6) Keaschall (OF, not IF)

7) K Culpepper

8) Soto

9) Morris

10) CJ Culpepper

 

I'm not sure which Culpepper Fangraphs will rank higher.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I would rank the 2 North Carolina players one and two. But then I may be a bit biased, since I live in North Carolina. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

17 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

1) Jenkins

2) Lee (though he's probably coming off the list soon)

3) Rodriguez

4) Festa

5) Matthews

6) Keaschall (OF, not IF)

7) K Culpepper

8) Soto

9) Morris

10) CJ Culpepper

 

I'm not sure which Culpepper Fangraphs will rank higher.

This is about where I'm at. I could also see Keaschall above Festa and Matthews at 4, and really I see Zebby as a better starting pitcher prospect than Festa, even if I also think Festa's stuff is legit. The top 7 in that order I agree with in some capacity.

[LambchoP]

I think Raya is way too high based off his workload and performance so far. I say Zebby is our top pitching prospect. He has outperformed Festa and everyone else completely. I'm not too high on Gonzalez yet either, id like to see him start hitting more before putting him in top ten. Keaschal should be right up there with Lee and Rodriguez.

[chpettit19]

I'm more of a tier guy instead of list.

Tier 1: Jenkins, Keaschall, Lee, Matthews, Rodriguez

Tier 2: Festa

Tier 3: Culpepper (Kaelen), Morris, Raya, Soto

That'd be my top 10.

[Fatbat]

Sorry for the double post🤦‍♂️

[Fatbat]

@DJL44 you beat me to the list as it should be.  I might even just graduate Lee off of it since its obvious that he will accrue mlb time just due to injuries. A case could be made to flip flop Festa/Mathews.  
If you take Lee off, there is an argument also to put Dasan Hill in at 10/11 based on projectibility of an 18 yo lefty pitcher.

[Shaitan]

Remember when people said that this FO only drafted bat-first corner outfielders?

[bean5302]

I'm not sure about stuff at the moment. I know I wouldn't have Raya in the top 10, and Festa would be way at the back of that too.
1. Brooks Lee
2. Emmanuel Rodriguez
3. Walker Jenkins
4. Zebby Matthews
5. Luke Keaschall
6. Kaelen Culpepper
7. Andrew Morris
8. David Festa
9. Charlee Soto
10. Gabriel Gonzalez

Lee will drop off soon, Rodriguez has shown he can hit in the high minors. Jenkins is struggling to make good contact (tons of pop ups, super low ISO) and drive the ball in A ball. Matthews was the best pitcher in AA, Keaschall is just 21 and destroying AA. Festa only has 2 MLB caliber pitches so he's destined for the bullpen. Soto is young, and Gonzalez needs to show more bat in A+ ball.

I've always been more results oriented than swooning over draft profiles and draft pick pedigree than the average person. Prove the scouting reports.

[mikelink45]

You have Raya and Soto rated to high for my taste.  Let them prove something before we give them such a status.  I would also move Zebby way up the list.  Festa lost a lot of luster and would still be top ten, but down lower.  I like Winokur, Cossetti, and Olivar over the young pitchers as well. 

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

You have Raya and Soto rated to high for my taste.  Let them prove something before we give them such a status.  I would also move Zebby way up the list.  Festa lost a lot of luster and would still be top ten, but down lower.  I like Winokur, Cossetti, and Olivar over the young pitchers as well. 

Agree on both being well below Zebby.  Performance at higher levels, especially high performance is far more important than projections.

No idea why everyone is down on Festa all of a sudden.  What else would you expect for his first taste of the bigs?  

[Twinsrtheworst]

I still 100 percent believe in Raya.  Development isn't an exact science.  I know most want to see him prove it to dignity the high rating.  Yes they are developing him slow...but in my opinion it will be well worth it.  Trust the plan and talent with Marco.

[mark sills]

for pitchers only I have Zebby 1. Morris 2 Fiesta 3 Soto 4  Raya 5 Lewis 6 Culpepper 7

[mark sills]

1 minute ago, mark sills said:

for pitchers only I have Zebby 1. Morris 2 Fiesta 3 Soto 4  Raya 5 Lewis 6 Culpepper 7

Morris the only one giving Zebby competition

 

[D.C Twins]

Raya should be 10 (or higher) and Zebby 6 (or lower). 

Raya will be elite bullpen at best; not gonna stick as a SP

[Jeff K]

On 7/18/2024 at 10:34 AM, DJL44 said:

He also needs to pitch well. Right now he's being handled like an egg and throwing rotten.

But other than that...I don't get Raya in our top 10 either.

[bean5302]

19 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Agree on both being well below Zebby.  Performance at higher levels, especially high performance is far more important than projections.

No idea why everyone is down on Festa all of a sudden.  What else would you expect for his first taste of the bigs?  

To have more than 2 MLB caliber pitches? His calling card was strikeouts, but those vanished at the MLB level as he was laser focused on avoiding walks. Even so, he was still pretty wild. Basically, Festa looked pretty raw, and he's 24 now.

[Cory Engelhardt]

24 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

To have more than 2 MLB caliber pitches? His calling card was strikeouts, but those vanished at the MLB level as he was laser focused on avoiding walks. Even so, he was still pretty wild. Basically, Festa looked pretty raw, and he's 24 now.

I hope Festa can stick as a starter. I do have more confidence in Zebby being a starter. But reliever Festa has 2 elite pitches at minimum, and I do think as a 2 inning guy he could be lights out. But if he can stick as a starter, even better. He led AAA in strikeout percentage, so his stuff is not a fluke.

[LyleCole]

1.  Emmanuel Rodriguez   I have him ahead of Jenkins because of proven performance.  A career .940 OPS who mixes hit, power, and speed.  
2. Walker Jenkins  #5 overall pick in a stacked draft, he could have more power upside than Rodriquez with a solid projected floor for a 19 year old.

3.   Luke Keaschall  This guy has professional hitter written all over him.   Might be a bit aggressively ranked because I don't think all of the power will follow him to the MLB level, but the OBP should.

4.   Kaelen Culpepper   Most recent first round pick.  This ranking is assuming he shows he can stay at SS, eliminates his chase, and shows he has a bit more power than anticipated.  

5.  Brandon Winokur   Another 19 year old who is holding his own in professional baseball.  Probably more slated for corner OF than SS he is playing, but he has the potential to leverage his great size to be a solid hitter.

6.  Charlee Soto   Going from young to younger.  The 2023 draft is well represented on this list.  Soto has the raw stuff to be an ace, but at just 18 years old there is still a lot of development.

7.  Zebby Matthews  One of the college group of 2022 draft college arms (Matthews 8th, Connor Prielepp 2nd  Morris 4th,  Kyle Jones 7th,  Cory Lewis 9th,  CJ Culpepper 13th).  Matthews has improved his velocity and in the early break from the gate is in the lead.  

8.   Marco Raya   Based on age and stuff, ranks here and ahead of Festa and other pitchers.  Aggressively pushed to AA at age 20 he seems to have hit a bit of a wall there.   While he is holding his K/9 level his BB/9 almost doubles at the AA level.   Plus, while they have been uncharacteristic aggressive in promoting Raya, they are incredibly conservative in usage.   Raya has averages only 3 innings per start in his career and has pitcher only 154 innings to date.

9.   Andrew Morris   In the horse race to the big leagues, Morris is stride for stride with Zebby Matthews and there is no guarantee which will reach the big leagues first (and there are still dark horses in that race if they can get back healthy).

10.  David Festa  Solid stuff, but it appears to me that the results do not match the potential.

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

The rankings as a whole do not matter to me.  However,  what Matthews is doing deserves to be a top 5 ranking.  Festa slightly below.  Matthews is looking like a solid #3 type pitcher.   

Where it gets interesting is we now have 4 pitchers with extremely high ceilings, players could potentially be a #1 type pitcher with varying degrees on those probabilities.  The least likely is Canterino,  they guy has great stuff he just has been unable to stay healthy.   We will go with another health issue but I honestly feel more comfortable he has turn the corner and that is Priellip.  Honestly,  he may have the highest ceiling of any other pitcher.  If he continues to flash what he has done in his first 2 outings I don't know how you don't have him in your top 6-8 rankings.  Soto,  would be right there as well.  A very sturdy 18 year old,  that is making big strides on command and letting his above average to elite stuff start to over take games.  He still is a bit hit and miss,  1 to 2 good outings followed by a clunker,  but as an 18 year old more than holding his own at A ball,  and if continues what has done in his last 3-4 starts,  may be showing he is beginning to dominate that level.  Lastly Dasan Hill.  Hasn't signed yet or thrown a pitch for us,  but has an elite slider with a very good fastball.  He needs to add weight to his frame,  but again looks to have the potential to be a high end lefty pitcher.  We have plenty of other pitcher options from the 21-24 drafts.  The biggest knock is we have had no #1 type pitchers in the system.  If you remove Canterino,  we now have a shot at potentially 3 that could hold that mantle.  That is a huge accomplishment for this organization.  I hope one of those 3 or another pitcher in the system can get there in the next couple year.   

[jkcarew]

You make a great argument for Raya to be outside the top 10…then you put him at 6??

Zero evidence he’s on a path to be a major-league starter. Graterol 2.0, but without a dominant pitch.