Why the Minnesota Twins Should Explore Trading Away Max Kepler at the Trade Deadline

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

We can all agree that Max Kepler is inconsistent, often frustrating, and seldom confused for Juan Soto in the batter's box. 

It is fun to dream about the possibilities of the Twins AAA players, but those who believe Kepler can be replaced this season by a player in the organization are dreaming indeed. 

The Twins will be in a competition all season for a playoff position and moving a player that is penned into the lineup for a wish and a hope is just not good baseball management and it won't happen.

We may or may not see Kepler repeat his performance from the second half of 2023 but those odds are more favorable than expecting a miracle from a AAA player. 

Kepler is a league average bat with pretty good defense in right field at this point. Considering the level of talent in St. Paul, there are going to be players who are likely to perform as well or better than Kepler.

Is Wallner a AAA player?
Is Julien a AAA player?
Is Lee a AAA player?
Is Keirsey a AAA player?

They're on a AAA roster, but there are plenty of people who support the idea at least one of them or even all of them are better than a typical "AAA replacement player."

[D.C Twins]

This is a well thought out and presented article. 

We definitely need some more bullpen help, so if there was a real difference maker to get in return... I'd be open to that. 

It is a hard NO to trading for prospects during a playoff run

[USAFChief]

The only way this is even a remote possibility is if the Twins fall well out of the WC race. 

 

[The Mad King]

And watch our defense get worse? No thanks...

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Kepler is a league average bat with pretty good defense in right field at this point. Considering the level of talent in St. Paul, there are going to be players who are likely to perform as well or better than Kepler.

Is Wallner a AAA player?
Is Julien a AAA player?
Is Lee a AAA player?
Is Keirsey a AAA player?

They're on a AAA roster, but there are plenty of people who support the idea at least one of them or even all of them are better than a typical "AAA replacement player."

Well, despite my support via comments on Twins Daily for all four of the players you name, they are all actually AAA players and not ready to play at the level we see from Max Kepler at this time.

We may see Lee for Farmer at some point but even that is a tough decision because Miranda has placed himself into the everyday lineup, Santana continues to perform, Lewis will get at bats for sure, Larnach has shown his worth, and Castro is critical to the team. Tough to see a change right now without an injury. 

[Rosterman]

is a pure no-brainer. They have so many options. No way I see them extending him or giving him a qualifying offer.

Now Max just needs to make it worthwhile for someone to pick him up for the $4mill that remains. And that may be the tough call.

[IndianaTwin]

18 hours ago, DocBauer said:

…But they like Kepler. They're in contention. They aren't going to upset the clubhouse or roster construction at this point. Additionally, I can't recall the last time I saw a contending team trade from their current roster to add to another portion of their roster. Contend while weakening a spot to strengthen another spot? Kepler would be moved for prospects and that doesn't help this year.

This cuts to the chase for me. Trading Kepler is more likely to weaken this year’s team than enhance it, and they’re not going to mess up the clubhouse mojo for the minimal return that it would get. 

[Doctor Wu]

17 hours ago, joefish said:

You meant right field, right?

I'm surprised nobody else caught that one. Good eye!

[Doctor Wu]

If the Twins are still solidly in contention at the end of this month I can't see them trading Kepler. He's been up and down as usual, but he will have another hot month before the season is finished and hopefully that will come at the right time for the Twins.  I think he's a far more reliable option than Wallner, for example. And besides, I can't see us getting anything of real value if we did trade him at this point. Just keep him and hope he's productive down the stretch. But I also agree with others that would be surprised if the Twins gave him a QO after the season is over. Despite the questionable options in RF it may be best for the Twins to cut ties with Kepler at that point. 

[Trov]

When I saw the headline I was thinking the article would have several terrible ideas about who to trade to, but it was at least some thought into it.  The Philly idea makes the most sense overall.  However, the issue is that Kepler has very little value in trade.  He is league average hitter, that plays good to great defense.  Yes, he has had hot runs in his history but outside of his second half last, and no playoff output, he has never had long run of success but more so just a few weeks at a time. 

Corner outfield spots are easy to fill.  Just as the article points out we have much depth there.  Not many teams that are buying will give up much MLB ready talent for him on a rental.  He also will not be getting QO, because he would be a fool to turn it down.  

I agree it makes sense to trade Kepler to get something for him if you feel you can replace him for rest of year, but he will not fetch much of a return. 

[LambchoP]

Better move would be to trade Farmer and Theilbar for anything at all. If nobody wants them, which is very likely then DFA them both. Then call up Brooks Lee to cover second base. He'd be a MASSIVE improvement over Farmer. Then trade for a solid lefty at the deadline to replace Theilbar. I think a reliever or two is all we're going to get this year. Hopefully we get Stewart and Topa back soon. Really wish Canterino would get healthy but he's looking more and more like a lost cause.

[bean5302]

16 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Well, despite my support via comments on Twins Daily for all four of the players you name, they are all actually AAA players and not ready to play at the level we see from Max Kepler at this time.

We may see Lee for Farmer at some point but even that is a tough decision because Miranda has placed himself into the everyday lineup, Santana continues to perform, Lewis will get at bats for sure, Larnach has shown his worth, and Castro is critical to the team. Tough to see a change right now without an injury. 

Trade them all, then. If they can't produce at a 2.0 WAR level, they're of no future value.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, LambchoP said:

Better move would be to trade Farmer and Theilbar for anything at all. If nobody wants them, which is very likely then DFA them both. Then call up Brooks Lee to cover second base. He'd be a MASSIVE improvement over Farmer. Then trade for a solid lefty at the deadline to replace Theilbar. I think a reliever or two is all we're going to get this year. Hopefully we get Stewart and Topa back soon. Really wish Canterino would get healthy but he's looking more and more like a lost cause.

Farmer has no trade value. If Lee is such a massive upgrade over him, he's also an upgrade over Kepler.

[chpettit19]

33 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Trade them all, then. If they can't produce at a 2.0 WAR level, they're of no future value.

So if they can't produce at a 2.0 WAR level now they have no value in the future? Isn't it possible they get better and are able to produce at that level, or better, at a later point in time?

Ed Julien has 0.6 bWAR in 58 games this year. Max Kepler has 1.2 in 60 games. Wallner had -0.1 in his 13  game disaster. Brooks Lee has played 57 total games at AAA, he's no sure thing to outdo a 1.2 WAR per 60 game performance right out of the gate. Keirsey is interesting and I wish we would get a chance to see what he can do in the majors.

38 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Farmer has no trade value. If Lee is such a massive upgrade over him, he's also an upgrade over Kepler.

Kyle Farmer has -.05 bWAR in 57 games. That's a 1.7 WAR difference between him and Kepler in roughly 60 games. That's a 4.6 WAR player over a full season. That leaves an awful lot of space between being a massive upgrade over Farmer, but not being an upgrade over Kepler.

I would be fine moving on from Farmer, Kepler, Margot, and a number of other guys for some different roster construction options, but there's a huge gap between Farmer and Kepler. And just because people don't think already demoted guys or completely unproven prospects can produce at a 2 WAR clip right now doesn't mean "they're of no future value." Injuries are going to happen again and doors will open. Hopefully all the young guys kick them in when they get their chances.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

So if they can't produce at a 2.0 WAR level now they have no value in the future? Isn't it possible they get better and are able to produce at that level, or better, at a later point in time?

Ed Julien has 0.6 bWAR in 58 games this year. Max Kepler has 1.2 in 60 games. Wallner had -0.1 in his 13  game disaster. Brooks Lee has played 57 total games at AAA, he's no sure thing to outdo a 1.2 WAR per 60 game performance right out of the gate. Keirsey is interesting and I wish we would get a chance to see what he can do in the majors.

Kyle Farmer has -.05 bWAR in 57 games. That's a 1.7 WAR difference between him and Kepler in roughly 60 games. That's a 4.6 WAR player over a full season. That leaves an awful lot of space between being a massive upgrade over Farmer, but not being an upgrade over Kepler.

I would be fine moving on from Farmer, Kepler, Margot, and a number of other guys for some different roster construction options, but there's a huge gap between Farmer and Kepler. And just because people don't think already demoted guys or completely unproven prospects can produce at a 2 WAR clip right now doesn't mean "they're of no future value." Injuries are going to happen again and doors will open. Hopefully all the young guys kick them in when they get their chances.

Yep. They're not going to get better. Wallner and Julien are 27 and 26 next year, respectively. They're not going to become different players or a lot better. They're in their prime. Lee is entering his prime. He'll be 24 next year, which will be getting up there for a top prospect.

If you don't believe those guys can produce at a 2 WAR clip already, they're not worth hanging onto while they have team control and trade value. Lee being the exception for another year. Kepler is a below average value starting position player right now. Apart from last year, he's been below average for a few years now. Serviceable. Not desireable.

Farmer's been about league average at the plate since late April. While it's all fun to look at his full year stats and conclude he sucks, Farmer and Santana looked the same in April, but Santana continued to get every day at bats while Farmer was sporadically platooned and Margot got his daily play time to reverse his line. Farmer's consistently been a 1.0-2.0 WAR starter. Good enough.

[jkcarew]

I’d trade him and take my chances. Nothing against him.

And you’re not offering him a QO…so, this is the only chance to get something for him.

[chpettit19]

48 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Yep. They're not going to get better. Wallner and Julien are 27 and 26 next year, respectively. They're not going to become different players or a lot better. They're in their prime. Lee is entering his prime. He'll be 24 next year, which will be getting up there for a top prospect.

If you don't believe those guys can produce at a 2 WAR clip already, they're not worth hanging onto while they have team control and trade value. Lee being the exception for another year. Kepler is a below average value starting position player right now. Apart from last year, he's been below average for a few years now. Serviceable. Not desireable.

Farmer's been about league average at the plate since late April. While it's all fun to look at his full year stats and conclude he sucks, Farmer and Santana looked the same in April, but Santana continued to get every day at bats while Farmer was sporadically platooned and Margot got his daily play time to reverse his line. Farmer's consistently been a 1.0-2.0 WAR starter. Good enough.

I'm just going to assume sarcasm in all of this and move on.

But will note there were 189 guys with at least 100 PAs last year that earned enough bWAR/Game to have reached 2 WAR in 150 games. That's about 6 guys per team. If Wallner, Julien, Lee, and Keirsey have to be good enough to be a top 6 player on an MLB team right now or have no future value I think you're going to find a lot of teams have a lot of young players who have no future value. If you get wild and jump that number to 200 PAs as the cutoff you're down to 174 position players. Now you're below 6 guys per team. 300 PAs? 162 guys (5.4 guys per team). 502 to qualify for a batting title? 94 position players. So just over 3 guys per team. Tough crowd if 2 WAR is your requirement. 87 qualified hitters reached 2 fWAR last year. 133 total hitters.

[USAFChief]

43 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Farmer's been about league average at the plate since late April.

False.

May: .242/.306/.333

June: .250/.351/.313

 

MLB average OPS .705

 

 

[tony&rodney]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Trade them all, then. If they can't produce at a 2.0 WAR level, they're of no future value.

Could happen .... in time.

[tony&rodney]

Sometimes people get totally exasperated by Max Kepler and just want him to disappear because their disappointment has reached a break level. We have all seen this before and yet he is still a mainstay in the lineup and in the middle of some exciting wins. Maybe those who boil over because of Max need to take a few minutes off when he come to the plate, at least for their own personal mental health. It isn't very rational to get so dramatic about a baseball player who is good but not as good as one expects. Either that or try finding enjoyment in his smooth approach and demeanor for the next three plus months. After October Max is gone, even if the Twins extend a QO which I personally do not expect to occur.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

False.

May: .242/.306/.333

June: .250/.351/.313

 

MLB average OPS .705

 

 

4/27+ .263/.349/.368 wRC+ 111. Do you think I don't look this **** up before I post 99% of the time?

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm just going to assume sarcasm in all of this and move on...

Not sarcasm. Waste your resources however you see fit.

[USAFChief]

28 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

4/27+ .263/.349/.368 wRC+ 111. Do you think I don't look this **** up before I post 99% of the time?

I'll take carefully calculated misuse of selective endpoints for one thousand, Alex.

 

On 4/27, Farmer got 2 hits, including a double, in a game in which the Twins scored 16 runs. Against the bottom 2/3 of the Angel bullpen, and Aaron Hicks in mopup.

But by all means, let's start our count there.

 

Or..

 

.187/.291/.260

 

Farmer's 2024 batting line.

Sheesh.

BTW, your numbers since 4/27 are also false. 

[Major League Ready]

13 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I'll take carefully calculated misuse of selective endpoints for one thousand, Alex.

How is this a misuse?  He did not try to say Farmer has been good all year.  We all know Farmer had a miserable start.  In acknowledging that poor start, Bean5302 said Farmer had been about league average since late April which you proclaimed was false.  He then provided proof in the form of his wRC+ since 4/22.   I don't know how the statement and his follow-up could have been more factual.  

[Shaitan]

There are a curious amount of articles lately suggesting that the team should get rid of MLB players (and call up players from AAA) at the deadline to get better instead of the traditional angle to trade FOR proven MLB talent.

I'm sure it's due to the budget etc, but it's an interesting take. I don't agree, broadly speaking. Except for generational talents like Morneau over Doug M way back. Brooks Lee, perhaps. But he isn't really even blocked at the moment. That one is just a matter of getting minor league AB. We all know he'll be up before September if he stays healthy and keeps performing.

But I disagree here for the same reason as other commenters. The defense gets much worse and the outfielders in St. Paul right now don't move the needle for me. I think they would be a step down from Kepler at 2024 skill level.

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I'll take carefully calculated misuse of selective endpoints for one thousand, Alex.

 

On 4/27, Farmer got 2 hits, including a double, in a game in which the Twins scored 16 runs. Against the bottom 2/3 of the Angel bullpen, and Aaron Hicks in mopup.

But by all means, let's start our count there.

 

Or..

 

.187/.291/.260

 

Farmer's 2024 batting line.

Sheesh.

BTW, your numbers since 4/27 are also false. 

Yeah, 4/27 to current is selective. But, I stated Farmer was "about average." Choose most dates around that range and you'll get something "about average"

[Riverbrian]

Since April 27 - Farmer's OPS .717 - wRC+ 111

Since May 1 - Farmer's OPS .652 - wRC+ 93

Average? Not Average? I'll let others debate the 2024 Farmer definition. 

One thing is pretty clear in my mind. Farmer certainly isn't pushing anyone on the roster. 65 AB's in two months. He ain't pushing anyone. 

Kepler could use some pushing. Since May 1 his OPS is .713.

Since June 1 it's .517

[JAH]

For the last several years, there has been an outcry to trade Max Kepler.  Every year, we hear that the Twins have an overabundance of outfielders, especially left-handed outfielders.  Or, we hear the Twins are too left-hand heavy.  Each and all have served as reasons to trade Kepler.  Every reason given made some or a lot of sense at the time, but was short-sighted.  Time and reality have proven the front office's adroitness in holding onto him.  Rooker started gangbusters, got hit/hurt, struggled, was sent down, and traded.  Wallner, so far, has been on a similar track.  After the way he tore up AAA (and every prior level), I thought Kirilloff was going to be the Twins' next superstar.   It started out well until the wrist injury and operations.  I am holding out hope.  Along came Larnach, who again has shown flashes, but until this year has not stuck with the Twins due to injuries and lack of prolonged production.  There may have been others.  Jake Cave?  The point is, there have been a number of players who have given pundits reason to trade Kepler.  No one has measured up.  Now, again, we hear Wallner is ready.  Is he really?  Since trading Rosario, we have not even been able to figure out an everyday left fielder.  We have not had an everyday center fielder for years.  The only constant in the outfield has been Kepler.  So, instead of worrying about trading him or qualifying offers, how about a contract extension?!?!?  Max has given what, something like 15 years to the organization?  

[Riverbrian]

On Kepler... I'm staying out of it. 

I advocated releasing him last June and he was one of the hottest hitters in baseball in the 2nd half. 

Not going to do it this time.

Although... I will say this... It would be in Max's best interest to become one of the hottest hitters in baseball in the 2nd half again this year. His performance will have dollar signs attached to it with his pending free agency this off-season. 

[Road trip]

It looks to me like a classic strategy vs tactics question.

Tactically, the Twins are likely better off in 2024 season with Kepler playing right field (assuming the player received in return for Kepler isn't more valuable, currently).  If your goal is to put the best possible team out in 2024 you keep Kepler.

Strategically, the Twins must consistently identify and develop young players and turn them into major leaguers.  This must be done every season.  Some current "AAA players" must become MLB players, or else this franchise is doomed long term given their somewhat self-imposed payroll limits.  Simultaneously older, more expensive players must be shed at an appropriate rate and time, while receiving value back for them rather than just letting them go.  

Kepler certainly fits into the "expensive older player" category.  You can keep him and let him walk for nothing, be marginally better in 2024, and leave the youngsters down in AAA to batter AAA pitching.  The cost of doing this is that you are sacrificing the potential return on Kepler, and you aren't gathering much information about the possible MLB value of a variety of AAA players.

So, do you want to keep Kepler and bet on 2024?  As a fan I want the short-term gratification, but I also have to acknowledge the very real strategic cost of chasing this.