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Carlos Santana the All-Star is Closer Than You Think

Ted Schwerzler
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Ted Schwerzler MVP

Ted Schwerzler

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Carlos Santana, and All-Star? Certainly that would have been a wild thought to have in April if you had been following the Minnesota Twins. However, his performance since and the case amongst his peers at least deserves a review.

 

When the first update regarding Major League Baseball’s All-Star Game was reported on Monday, the only name present for the Minnesota Twins was Carlos Correa. He rounded out the top ten among shortstops, and that’s a relatively sad reflection of fan voting given his positioning in multiple categories this season. He took home Player of the Week honors anyways. Not present was Carlos Santana, and maybe he should have been.

With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leading the way for the American League at first base, the immediate reaction should have been that the big name was at the top. Obviously fan voting is largely driven by marketing and popularity, but it isn’t as though the Blue Jays slugger is having a bad year. With a 126 OPS+, he has produced at a higher level than last season (when he made a third consecutive All-Star Game), but for a mediocre Toronto team he hasn’t exactly been a dude.

Checking the Fangraphs fWAR leaderboards among qualified players at first base, Guerrero Jr. is at the top with 1.1 fWAR, but just behind him is the Twins other Carlos. Santana has accumulated 1.0 fWAR through his first 66 games, and that is with the caveat that the fan base wanted the Target Field masher designated for assignment just weeks into the season.

Through his first 18 games for his third AL Central team, Santana owned a .407 OPS and looked entirely overmatched at the dish. Since then, he has played in 46 games while owning an .895 OPS and slugging .542. Brought in to play first base with Alex Kirilloff being questionable there (and now demoted to Triple-A), he has been as advertised defensively too. Leading American League first baseman with three defensive runs saved and five outs above average, he’s well on his way to a Gold Glove award.

Having already hit 11 home runs, Santana is four clear of Guerrero’s tally, and they are neck and neck when it comes to doubles. Santana’s 111 OPS+ is just above league average, but if he continues even a percentage of this pace over the next month, then he should find himself overcoming the slow start to have a very similar slash line.

The newish voting system forces fans to select from finalists in Phase 2 of the All-Star Game balloting process (aside from the top overall vote getter that automatically earns a starting spot), and there’s almost zero chance that Santana goes from unlisted to being within that range. Guerrero currently leads the Orioles Ryan Mountcastle and Guardians Josh Naylor.

It’s possible that Santana could be an additional first baseman (as those that don’t win Phas 2 are not guaranteed a roster spot), or additional designated hitter chosen, as the league will have 18 additional position player roles to fill. Rocco Baldelli’s club could be among those that get just a sole representative however, and Correa has been the most productive player.

If those involved from around the league select someone outside of the norm, and it isn’t Santana, maybe Griffin Jax or a lack-of-qualifying-numbers Royce Lewis could be the choice. No matter what, seeing Santana position himself where he is now after such a dreadful start is something the Twins have to be ecstatic about. All-Star selection or not, and it would be just the second of his career, he’s well-positioned to help the club reach the postseason for a second straight year.

And hey, if Santana and Guerrero Jr. join up as teammates, maybe they'll stay as much the rest of the way as well.


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Brandon Ft Myers Mighty Mussels

Brandon

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What are the other 1B doing?  What are the top contenders numbers compared to Santanas?  I think on our list of potential all stars is maybe Ryan and Jax  with Correa and Jeffers as candidates on the position player side and Santana is on the periphery of the list of those deserving a spot.  He is definitely making his contract with the team a bargain. 

ChermesZ College Ball

ChermesZ

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The twins team marketing situation has cost votes for our players…but there are bigger problems.
 

I have not liked the voting situation for a while….a lot of uneducated yankee fans voting for Rizzo and his 85 ops+.i think he was 3rd in voting.  Yankees in top 5 in every position.  Toronto also has similar voting patterns.

 

Also take into consideration that players have all star clauses in their contracts - which benefit larger markets.   Which means they (Yankees, dodgers) get another mlb advantage.

Fatbat FCL Twins

Fatbat

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2 hours ago, ChermesZ said:

The twins team marketing situation has cost votes for our players…but there are bigger problems.
 

I have not liked the voting situation for a while….a lot of uneducated yankee fans voting for Rizzo and his 85 ops+.i think he was 3rd in voting.  Yankees in top 5 in every position.  Toronto also has similar voting patterns.

 

Also take into consideration that players have all star clauses in their contracts - which benefit larger markets.   Which means they (Yankees, dodgers) get another mlb advantage.

Big markets with more fans always get more fan votes.  Thats why its not just about fan votes. 

Ted Schwerzler MVP

Ted Schwerzler

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5 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's 113th in fWAR.....of those with at least 100 ABs this year. There are 113 hitters with a higher wrc+ (of those with at least 100 ABs). It seems unlikely he's an all star..... 

don't get me wrong, I hope he's awesome the rest of the way, but we seem to be getting ahead of ourselves here.

Now sort by American League first basemen...

Brandon Ft Myers Mighty Mussels

Brandon

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40 minutes ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

I mean, it's quite literally presented to you above...

You talked about Guerrero and mentioned 2 others.  I guess I was expecting you to compare them to Santana.  Instead of just linking them.  I’m sorry..  you did a great job building the case on how Santana deserves a shot based on him vs Guerrero but just links to two others.  

ChermesZ College Ball

ChermesZ

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7 hours ago, Alex Wilde said:

Fans should have nothing to do with All Stars let alone voting. We let the most uneducated and biased people decide who makes it to the All Star Game versus  other players, scouts, front office members, and baseball writers? Seems like an absolute joke to let fan bases vote who obviously favor New York, Chicago, Toronto, and LA.

Although, let’s be honest, the writers voted Raphael palmeiro a gold glove when he played 19 games at 1B as well as every Derek Jeter gold glove…..

 

they are not bastions of unbiased baseball fans.

Major League Ready Cedar Rapids Kernels

Major League Ready

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6 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Now sort by American League first basemen...

Good point Ted.  That's what I did after reading the title.   As of this morning, he is 2nd among American League 1B.  That's closer than I thought.  Yes, he had a bad three weeks in April since then his wRC+ is 150 and he has produced 1.7 WAR.  You are going to get grief because the majority of posters hated the signing.  There were still people wanting him cut a couple weeks ago. 

dxpavelka FCL Twins

dxpavelka

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It's almost as if fan angst based on a six week sample size early in the season is unwarranted.  I once again go back to Donovan Solano having 5 RBI as May passed the 3/4 pole last year and thinking this guy is basically useless.  And yet he was on of our most important sticks the rest of the way.  Whouldathunkit?

 

Karbo FCL Twins

Karbo

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I admit I was shocked when they signed him. I figured he was pretty much at or even below replacement value. I may end up eating crow, which is OK if he keeps hitting as well as he has for the last 4-5 weeks.

Doctor Gast Wichita Wind Surge

Doctor Gast

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Nice sell job Ted! Maybe you can use your talents to sell Santana to another team. We already have Miranda to hit LHPs & it's too bad we need to use Miranda against RHPs because switch-hitter Santana can't hit RHPs. Once Kiriloff & Julien come back we'll have the best against RHPs.

Major League Ready Cedar Rapids Kernels

Major League Ready

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1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

It's almost as if fan angst based on a six week sample size early in the season is unwarranted.  I once again go back to Donovan Solano having 5 RBI as May passed the 3/4 pole last year and thinking this guy is basically useless.  And yet he was on of our most important sticks the rest of the way.  Whouldathunkit?

 

If you were to look at the log, you would find a very clear point where he turned it around.  That point was April 20th.  To that point he had played in 16 games and had 63 PAs.  You are exaggerating by roughly 2X.   Yes, I do think fan angst over a 16 game (63 PA) slump is unwarranted when the man has provided the value has since then.  

That said, I would not have a problem with them trading him at the deadline if they could get something for him to make room for Wallner or Lee if they keep it going and inserting Miranda at 1B.  Hell, Severino is a candidate too if he keeps blistering AAA.

DJL44 St Paul Saints

DJL44

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11 hours ago, Alex Wilde said:

Seems like an absolute joke to let fan bases vote who obviously favor New York, Chicago, Toronto, and LA.

How did Toronto get in there? The All-Star Game is literally a popularity contest. Fans vote for who they want to see in an exhibition game designed for fans.

DJL44 St Paul Saints

DJL44

Verified Member
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Lewis would be a worthy All-Star except he's only played 12 games. Correa is having a great season but so are several other shortstops so his competition is stiff. I think Joe Ryan has been worthy of an all-star game selection. Griffin Jax would be the representative for several teams but I've always thought they put too many relief pitchers on the roster.

LambchoP FCL Twins

LambchoP

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Our best player is Royce Lewis, but he hasn't played enough this year. Our all-stars should be Jax, Ryan, and definitely Correa after the test he's been on. A month ago I would have said Jeffers but man he really fell off a cliff and has looked bad.

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Rather than accuse fans of over reacting to 16 games, how about assume they also looked at previous years, and used that as the basis of their opinion? If anyone thinks he's going to keep this up, I hope you aren't disappointed when he doesn't. I know asking posters to assume positive things about other humans is a stretch...

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