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When the first update regarding Major League Baseball’s All-Star Game voting was reported on Monday, the only name present for the Minnesota Twins was Carlos Correa. He rounded out the top 10 among shortstops, a relatively sad reflection of fan voting given his stats in multiple categories this season. He took home Player of the Week honors almost simultaneously. Nowhere on the leaderboard was Carlos Santana, and maybe he should have been.
With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leading the way for the American League at first base, the immediate reaction should have been that the big name was at the top. Obviously, fan voting is largely driven by marketing and popularity, but it isn’t as though the Blue Jays slugger is having a bad year. With a 126 OPS+, he has produced at a higher level than last season (when he made a third consecutive All-Star Game), but for a mediocre Toronto team, he hasn’t exactly been a dude.
Checking the FanGraphs WAR leaderboards among qualified players at first base, Guerrero is tops with 1.1 fWAR, but just behind him is the Twins' other Carlos. Santana has accumulated 1.0 fWAR through his first 66 games, and that's with the caveat that the fan base wanted the Target Field masher designated for assignment just weeks into the season. (Some of the calls even came from inside the house. Our bad.)
Through his first 18 games for his third AL Central team, Santana owned a .407 OPS and looked entirely overmatched at the dish. Since then, he has played in 46 games, while owning an .895 OPS and slugging .542. Brought in to play first base with Alex Kirilloff being questionable there (and now demoted to Triple-A), he has been as good as advertised defensively, too. Leading American League first baseman with 3 Defensive Runs Saved and 5 Outs Above Average, he’s well on his way to a Gold Glove award.
Having already hit 11 home runs, Santana is four clear of Guerrero’s tally, and they're neck-and-neck when it comes to doubles. Santana’s 111 OPS+ is just above league-average, but that has the nightmarish start baked in. He's been a star-caliber producer at first base since the late stages of April.
The newish voting system forces fans to select from finalists in Phase 2 of the All-Star Game balloting process (aside from the top overall vote-getter, who automatically earns a starting spot), and there’s almost zero chance that Santana goes from unlisted to being within that range. Guerrero currently leads the Orioles' Ryan Mountcastle and Guardians' Josh Naylor, who are positioned to take the other finalist spots.
It’s possible that Santana could be an additional first baseman (as those who reach but don’t win Phase 2 are not guaranteed a roster spot), or spare designated hitter chosen, as the league will have 18 additional position player roles to fill. Rocco Baldelli’s club could be among those that get just one representative, however, and Correa has been the most productive player.
If those involved from around the league select someone outside of the norm, and it isn’t Santana, maybe Griffin Jax or a lack-of-qualifying-numbers Royce Lewis could be the choice. No matter what, seeing Santana position himself where he is now after such a dreadful start has to have the Twins feeling ecstatic. All-Star selection or not (it would be just the second of his career), he’s well-positioned to help the club reach the postseason for a second straight year.
And hey, if Santana and Guerrero join up as teammates, maybe they'll stay as much the rest of the way, as well.
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