The Twins Made A Decision About Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien, But It May Not Be The Right Choice

[mickster]

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

I hope they give Julian some reps at 1B while he's in AAA. Thinking of the future. have Julian at 1st, Lee at 2nd, Lewis at 3rd, Correa at SS, seems like a pretty good infield.

I think it will be Miranda at 1B, and either Julian/Lee will be part of a trade if not this year in the offseason

[DJL44]

15 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's close to the worst hitter in the game. How much defense can fix that? Really. 406 batters have 50 or more at bats. He's the 400th "best" hitter......5 wrc+. That's not a typo......

And the catchers pile up at the bottom of that list. Out of catchers with 50 or more plate appearances he's 55th of 59 in fWAR because he's 9th in defense. That's not good but 60 catchers are guaranteed MLB roster spots. If you cut Vazquez you are more likely than not to end up with a player worse than Vazquez.

[Patzky]

So many people have awesome lineup ideas today that nobody is going to like Rocco's Tuesday lineup card in NY.

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

And the catchers pile up at the bottom of that list. Out of catchers with 50 or more plate appearances he's 55th of 59 in fWAR because he's 9th in defense. That's not good but 60 catchers are guaranteed MLB roster spots. If you cut Vazquez you are more likely than not to end up with a player worse than Vazquez.

He's already 55th of 59.....are we sure the next guy would be worse?

[DJL44]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

He's already 55th of 59.....are we sure the next guy would be worse?

Not sure, but more likely than not and if they're better it probably won't be that much better.

[Squirrel]

9 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

And the catchers pile up at the bottom of that list. Out of catchers with 50 or more plate appearances he's 55th of 59 in fWAR because he's 9th in defense. That's not good but 60 catchers are guaranteed MLB roster spots. If you cut Vazquez you are more likely than not to end up with a player worse than Vazquez.

 

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's already 55th of 59.....are we sure the next guy would be worse?

Back to topic. Sorry I responded to Nick in the first place. Please start a separate topic if you want to discuss the catcher situation. It is not related to sending down Julien.

[joefish]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm not opposed to sending Julien down to catch his breath.

I'm opposed to rostering Farmer. And Vazquez. And Margot. This was an easy opportunity to rip off the band aid.

Ouch. I cringed at that thought. I currently have stitches under all 3 of my band aids. Truth.

[Riverbrian]

38 minutes ago, Patzky said:

So many people have awesome lineup ideas today that nobody is going to like Rocco's Tuesday lineup card in NY.

I'll take a shot - Possible spoiler alert

1. Larnach - LF

2. Jeffers - C

3. Kepler - RF

4. Lewis - 3B

5. Correa - SS

6. Kirilloff - 1B

7. Buxton - CF

8. Castro - 2B

9. Miranda - DH

[MMMordabito]

Falvey:

Dah ... I think a -0.6 WAR 58 OPS+ negative defender guy is the best to keep on the team.  

[stringer bell]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Farmer has to get more playing time with Lewis returning and Julien gone or else Farmer is going to be used so sparingly that his roster position can't be justified. 

Unless Miranda plays 2B we don't have the cover at the position anymore. Juliens role has to be replaced by Castro... If not Castro... It's Farmer every day. So let's assume Castro takes Juliens Role because I'm sure that he will. 

Farmer would retain his short side duties at 2B

However.

Castro will add Juliens role while retaining his other roles with the club.

1. OF against Left Handers - Castro hits left handers best... If he isn't in the lineup against left handers... We will all know that the Twins have gone off the deep end. If Castro is in the OF against left handers... Farmer has to play 2B.  

2. CF when Buxton needs a maintenance day or plays the occasional DH. These Buxton maintenance days will occur against right handers so unless Margot steps into this CF role... Which I guess is possible... Although, Castro sure seems to be Rocco's first choice when Buxton takes time off. With Castro in CF... This means Farmer has to play 2B because there is nobody else unless Miranda plays 2B.  

3. SS when Correa needs a maintenance day. Correa took yesterday off. Correa will get maintenance days right handers. When that happens Castro will have to slide over to SS and that makes Farmer play 2B unless MIranda can play 2B because there is nobody else. Unless Rocco leaves Castro at 2B so making Farmer play SS. Either way... Farmer is playing against a right handed pitcher. 

Basically... Farmer keeps his short side job but adds starts against Right handed pitching due to the necessity of Castro playing CF and SS. With Julien on the roster... it was possible to limit Farmer to short side platoon work.  

So unless Miranda plays 2B. Farmer's playing time has to increase. 

The big difference here is that Castro is a switch hitter and will never be hit for by Kyle Farmer. Farmer will get his starts against lefty pitching and be hit for as soon as a right hander enters. When a left hander does enter the game, I don't think Farmer is the first choice to hit for Larnach or Kirilloff and I don't think any right handed hitter has hit for Kepler. There may be an occasion or two when Farmer starts because Buxton is either the DH or getting a day off, but they could go with the (slightly) better hitting of Margot in center field and keep Castro at second. With Correa having taken a day off on Sunday, I doubt he will have more than one day off in the coming weeks. 

I think it is only fair to say that projecting usage should be limited to a week or two. Injuries or a hot spell could change the equation, as it has for Jose Miranda.

[insagt1]

Correct move I think. Julien does need a reset and looking at strike 3 is not a good look. I had the opportunity to watch Lewis all last week. AAA pitching (and Rochester pitching is abysmal at best) handled him well. He did not have an impressive week at all. So maybe being called up will benefit him now. He wasn't  going to get a lot better down here. Actually most impressive bat during this 7 game series was 

Wallner. He hit a few a real long way.  Saints lost the series 4-3 but scored a ton of runs. Last 2 games they scored 16 but only won one of them. Lewis didn't play every game. I'm sure Twins will find a home for him. Let's hope he doesn't get hurt again.

Unfortunately they have to play red hot Yankees. Judge, Soto and Stanton can't make an out these days.

 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

35 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

The big difference here is that Castro is a switch hitter and will never be hit for by Kyle Farmer. Farmer will get his starts against lefty pitching and be hit for as soon as a right hander enters. When a left hander does enter the game, I don't think Farmer is the first choice to hit for Larnach or Kirilloff and I don't think any right handed hitter has hit for Kepler. There may be an occasion or two when Farmer starts because Buxton is either the DH or getting a day off, but they could go with the (slightly) better hitting of Margot in center field and keep Castro at second. With Correa having taken a day off on Sunday, I doubt he will have more than one day off in the coming weeks. 

I think it is only fair to say that projecting usage should be limited to a week or two. Injuries or a hot spell could change the equation, as it has for Jose Miranda.

True... there would be no need to utilize Farmer as a pinch hitter with Castro. However, He would be a consideration for pinch hitting Kirilloff or Larnach because one will occupy the DH spot and the other LF... which of course Castro can always shift to. 

Margot playing CF would surprise me. Possible for sure but yet it would be surprising. Margot has had 20 Innings in CF this year but Castro and Martin were both chosen over him time and time again. Castro 2B and Margot CF seems like a weaker defensive middle than Farmer 2B and Castro CF. While the offensive difference between Farmer and Margot is marginal. 

I agree that Correa hasn't been subbed much thus far. But when he does it is surely Castro sliding over.  

However... the true test is going to be: Who and where does Rocco deploy when a player is out for 4 or 5 days but doesn't go on the IL.  

On a side note:

Castro's usage has been interesting this year and will get even more interesting. 

So Far in 2024

SS - 164 Innings

CF - 136 Innings

3B- 99 Innings

LF - 94.2 Innings

2B - 3 Innings but this number is about to sky rocket. 

Starting every day - This guy has been living in the house for a long time and done so without a home. 

 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

The part that none of us know might be key to the decision to send Julien to St. Paul.  Do you think it was a surprise to Julien?  Do you think he was angry and did his best Kyle Lohse impression and punched a door?  Do you think major league pitching was eating him up mentally and he was looking forward to the relative break of AAA to reset?  Do we know how many and what kinds of conversations have been had between Julien (and others) and coaches and Rocco in the past week or so since Lewis' return became imminent? 

I definitely didn't want to see him sent to St. Paul, but given his lack of production, I can certainly see it. The ironic part is that when he came up last year, many of us saw him not sticking because of his limited defensive skills, but those have improved quite a lot and it's his bat that is getting him in trouble now.  The next step is up to Julien.  I hope he can really hit the ground running, get some confidence back and go back to being the hitter we saw last year and briefly in April. 

[stringer bell]

3 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

The part that none of us know might be key to the decision to send Julien to St. Paul.  Do you think it was a surprise to Julien?  Do you think he was angry and did his best Kyle Lohse impression and punched a door?  Do you think major league pitching was eating him up mentally and he was looking forward to the relative break of AAA to reset?  Do we know how many and what kinds of conversations have been had between Julien (and others) and coaches and Rocco in the past week or so since Lewis' return became imminent? 

I definitely didn't want to see him sent to St. Paul, but given his lack of production, I can certainly see it. The ironic part is that when he came up last year, many of us saw him not sticking because of his limited defensive skills, but those have improved quite a lot and it's his bat that is getting him in trouble now.  The next step is up to Julien.  I hope he can really hit the ground running, get some confidence back and go back to being the hitter we saw last year and briefly in April. 

The one warning sign that he might be optioned was his position in the batting order of late. Larnach and Kirilloff have hit higher in the order, so that might have been an indication. By the same token, I expect the other guys in jeopardy of losing their current major league job (Kirilloff, Margot, Farmer) will get similar clues in the coming weeks. 

[Mike Sixel]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/spencer-torkelson-and-edouard-julien-optioned-to-triple-a/

[stringer bell]

27 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

True... there would be no need to utilize Farmer as a pinch hitter with Castro. However, He would be a consideration for pinch hitting Kirilloff or Larnach because one will occupy the DH spot and the other LF... which of course Castro can always shift to. 

Margot playing CF would surprise me. Possible for sure but yet it would be surprising. Margot has had 20 Innings in CF this year but Castro and Martin were both chosen over him time and time again. Castro 2B and Margot CF seems like a weaker defensive middle than Farmer 2B and Castro CF. While the offensive difference between Farmer and Margot is marginal. 

I agree that Correa hasn't been subbed much thus far. But when he does it is surely Castro sliding over.  

However... the true test is going to be: Who and where does Rocco deploy when a player is out for 4 or 5 days but doesn't go on the IL.  

On a side note:

Castro's usage has been interesting this year and will get even more interesting. 

So Far in 2024

SS - 164 Innings

CF - 136 Innings

3B- 99 Innings

LF - 94.2 Innings

2B - 3 Innings but this number is about to sky rocket. 

Starting every day - This guy has been living in the house for a long time and done so without a home. 

 

(I could have sworn I responded to this already) Anyway, if a right hander starts, one of Jeffers, Santana, Miranda/Lewis should be on the bench to start the game. If Kirilloff is starting a game at first base, the "handcuff"(your term) would be Santana. Batting for Larnach or Kirilloff, when a lefty enters, should be one of those guys, not Kyle Farmer. To me, it is a coin flip between Margot and Farmer as to who would get at bats when Buxton is  rested or used as the DH. The same coin flip applies when a righty hitter bats for the left fielder--use Margot as the PH/LF or use Farmer and move Willi to left field. 

Farmer has pinch hit 11 times this year and played second base in 10 of them, indicating he hit for Julien and stayed in the game. In the eleventh PH he didn't play in the field. I think the reduction in playing time from him not pinch hitting for the starting second baseman will cost him more time on the field than he will gain from playing when Buxton/Correa are not on the field.

[SteveLV]

I think this is a lot of hand-wringing for not much real impact.  It is not like the remaining Twins have been tearing the cover off the ball.

And odds are someone is bound to get injured in the next couple weeks and Julien will be right back up.

[MABB1959]

Could probably make this statement about any player on this team.  They have all had horrible slumps.  Even Byron had a bad week and not a great month.

[Riverbrian]

4 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

(I could have sworn I responded to this already) Anyway, if a right hander starts, one of Jeffers, Santana, Miranda/Lewis should be on the bench to start the game. If Kirilloff is starting a game at first base, the "handcuff"(your term) would be Santana. Batting for Larnach or Kirilloff, when a lefty enters, should be one of those guys, not Kyle Farmer. To me, it is a coin flip between Margot and Farmer as to who would get at bats when Buxton is  rested or used as the DH. The same coin flip applies when a righty hitter bats for the left fielder--use Margot as the PH/LF or use Farmer and move Willi to left field. 

Farmer has pinch hit 11 times this year and played second base in 10 of them, indicating he hit for Julien and stayed in the game. In the eleventh PH he didn't play in the field. I think the reduction in playing time from him not pinch hitting for the starting second baseman will cost him more time on the field than he will gain from playing when Buxton/Correa are not on the field.

Quite Possible. Reasonable thoughts for sure. 

It won't take long to find out. Tuesday and Wednesday will provide a lot of information toward starters, platoons and pinch hitting going forward. 

It's a fun debate for now. Probably won't last long because an injury is sure to adjust it. 

 

[DJL44]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Julien's batting average being .190 over the recent games doesn't bother me a ton. He's always going to be a low AVG guy because he strikes out 30-35% of the time. 

It's also important to calibrate expectations to a season where the league is hitting .240 - the lowest league batting average since 1968 - the year of the pitcher. 

If Julien strikes out less he's probably also going to walk less and his OBP is still solid even with his recent struggles.

[Five minute major]

8 hours ago, USAFChief said:

The proper move was to send Farmer packing, but there are 6 million bad reasons they didn’t. 

Ridiculous. 

This is the only correct answer.   But was incredibly predictable because of this FO absolute inability to cut dead weight.   Jake Cave, Joey Gallo and now Farmer and Margot.    This offense is unwatchable with those two and Vasquez in the lineup.   Julien has actually been better at the plate over the past week and seemed like he was turning the corner.   I am not a fan of this FO and these moves continue to reinforce why.

[Patzky]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I'll take a shot - Possible spoiler alert

1. Larnach - LF

2. Jeffers - C

3. Kepler - RF

4. Lewis - 3B

5. Correa - SS

6. Kirilloff - 1B

7. Buxton - CF

8. Castro - 2B

9. Miranda - DH

It's good! Actually there are a lot more good possibilities now. Maybe I'd consider Santana instead at 1st and putting him 9th, moving Miranda to 6th. Let's see what happens tomorrow. 

[Patzky]

54 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

It's also important to calibrate expectations to a season where the league is hitting .240 - the lowest league batting average since 1968 - the year of the pitcher. 

If Julien strikes out less he's probably also going to walk less and his OBP is still solid even with his recent struggles.

You're right. Maybe expecting .275 out of Julien and .260 from Buxton is just not reality. 

I really wouldn't be surprised to see Correa lead the team in BA..

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

The one warning sign that he might be optioned was his position in the batting order of late. Larnach and Kirilloff have hit higher in the order, so that might have been an indication. By the same token, I expect the other guys in jeopardy of losing their current major league job (Kirilloff, Margot, Farmer) will get similar clues in the coming weeks. 

How do you feel about leading off w Castro on days we face a lefty (instead of Margot)

[JD-TWINS]

7 hours ago, saviking said:

Margot .209 .AVG  AVE279 OBP

Julian .207 AVG  ..309 OBP

Farmer .163  AVG .274 OBP

---------------------------

Julian's lack of versatility, has options left, and the team isn't ready to admit they made bad signings, which is why Julian is the one. Any talk of his poor performance vs the other two isn't justified.

 

Julien has had way more OPPORTUNITIES to play well, as he should. 169 AB’s v. 92 AB’s for Farmer……..he had a .380 OBP in ‘23 as a Rookie - big shift so far this year and he needs a refresh.

Options, when faced with a Roster Crunch are always part of the deal.

Farmer hit .256 last year in 120 games & he was out a month after getting hit in the face……his career Average coming into ‘23 was .255.

To me, Margot is in the OF playing time mix with Larnach, Castro, Kirilloff, & Wallner……he’s becoming more effective, slowly bringing his average up. With a .255 career Average as well, he’s hit .254, .274, & .264 over the past 3 seasons.

Wallner had a really good 10 weeks ….. Julien had a really good 4 months…..hasn’t hit a HR since April 25th ……,something needs to get fixed …..,maybe a coach or a Sports Psychologist or maybe film study - I don’t know, but he’s better than his performance over the past 6 weeks.

The fact that Margot is 45 points under his career Average & many want him DFA’d and Julien is hitting lower says a lot about Julien’s performance.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, JD-TWINS said:

Julien has had way more OPPORTUNITIES to play well, as he should. 169 AB’s v. 92 AB’s for Farmer……..he had a .380 OBP in ‘23 as a Rookie - big shift so far this year and he needs a refresh.

Options, when faced with a Roster Crunch are always part of the deal.

Farmer hit .256 last year in 120 games & he was out a month after getting hit in the face……his career Average coming into ‘23 was .255.

To me, Margot is in the OF playing time mix with Larnach, Castro, Kirilloff, & Wallner……he’s becoming more effective, slowly bringing his average up. With a .255 career Average as well, he’s hit .254, .274, & .264 over the past 3 seasons.

Wallner had a really good 10 weeks ….. Julien had a really good 4 months…..hasn’t hit a HR since April 25th ……,something needs to get fixed …..,maybe a coach or a Sports Psychologist or maybe film study - I don’t know, but he’s better than his performance over the past 6 weeks.

The fact that Margot is 45 points under his career Average & many want him DFA’d and Julien is hitting lower says a lot about Julien’s performance.

Why are we only looing at batting average? Julien has been a league average hitter and slightly above average fielding 2B this year.....when taking into account slugging and walks, etc....Margot has not. And they won't even play him in CF....

[JD-TWINS]

34 minutes ago, Five minute major said:

This is the only correct answer.   But was incredibly predictable because of this FO absolute inability to cut dead weight.   Jake Cave, Joey Gallo and now Farmer and Margot.    This offense is unwatchable with those two and Vasquez in the lineup.   Julien has actually been better at the plate over the past week and seemed like he was turning the corner.   I am not a fan of this FO and these moves continue to reinforce why.

His last HR was April 25th after 7 in his first 24 games.

He strikes out routinely while trying to walk.

He’s hitting a few points less than a struggling Margot.

All of these things point to this being the right thing for the player because he needs a mental refresh.

[JD-TWINS]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

Why are we only looing at batting average? Julien has been a league average hitter and slightly above average fielding 2B this year.....when taking into account slugging and walks, etc....Margot has not. And they won't even play him in CF....

Are we crippled if Margot doesn’t play CF.

Julien plays ONLY 2B! I really like Eddie!! He’s not performing at the plate - nowhere near good - that’s a fact or he wouldn’t have been sent down after the Manager stood behind him and said “he needs to work things out here”.

He hit 7 HR’s in 24 games and hasn’t hit one since April 25th……through June 2. 4 good weeks don’t make 10 acceptable weeks…..he has stunk at the plate for the most part for 30 plus games.

His OBP is almost 80 points lower than last year and 55 of those points are batting average DROP.

He strikes out trying to walk, routinely. He needs to figure out a way to be more of a complete hitter with 2 strikes - coaching, mental refresh, something! What???? Seriously do not believe sending him to the plate in the Show & having him work it out now makes sense. If he gets help & then can still get plenty of opportunity from July 1 forward, that seems smarter. He can be back as soon as June 14 series if that makes sense - he’s not banished from the Roster.

The converse situation………They DFA Farmer - Julien pulls a hamstring 3 days later - they are scrambling……Castro loses position flexibility & Lee isn’t ready……..It’s only June 3rd lots more changes to come.

[RpR]

25 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Why are we only looing at batting average? Julien has been a league average hitter and slightly above average fielding 2B this year.....when taking into account slugging and walks, etc....Margot has not. And they won't even play him in CF....

Hmmm, this says he is either worse, or no better,  than he was.

[h2oface]

.