5 Top Prospects Who Can Still Impact the 2024 Minnesota Twins

[Cody Christie]

Last season, the Twins used a tremendous trio of rookies to bolster the second-half roster on the way to a division title. What’s the updated ETA for some of the team’s top prospects in 2024?

Image courtesy of William Parmeter (photo of Brooks Lee)

Fans get excited about the possibility of young talent impacting the big-league level, especially with top prospects garnering hype well before they reach the majors. Every year, prospects reach the big-league level and have varying impacts on the roster. Some players will struggle, while others will find immediate success. Here are five prospects from the updated Twins Daily Top-20 prospect list that can still impact the big-league roster this season. 

Brooks Lee, IF
Current TD Ranking: 2
Lee likely would have already made his big-league debut if he had been healthy enough to start the year. Unfortunately, he suffered a back injury toward the end of spring training that ended up being a herniated disc. Lee started his rehab assignment last week and should rejoin the Saints shortly. Last year, he posted a .731 OPS in 38 Triple-A games, so the team will likely want him to find some success at the level before giving him a call-up. ETA: July

Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF
Current TD Ranking: 3
Rodriguez has dominated the Double-A level to begin the 2024 season, putting himself into the conversation as the team’s top overall prospect. There seems little left for him to work on at Wichita, so he should don a Saints jersey before midseason. The Twins have been getting a lack of offensive production from the team’s left-handed hitting outfielders, so there might be pressure to push Rodriguez to the big leagues. However, he is only 21 years old, so there is no reason to rush him (yet). ETA: September

David Festa, RHP
Current TD Ranking: 4
The Twins have already needed to dig into their starting pitching depth this season, with Louie Varland struggling and Simeon Woods Richardson taking his rotation spot. Eventually, there will be another need at the big-league level, and Festa is showing that he is nearly a finished product. Over the weekend, he set the Saints franchise record with seven consecutive strikeouts in five scoreless innings. His 36.8% K rate is the highest of any Triple-A pitcher, with a minimum of 150 batters faced. ETA: July

Marco Raya, RHP
Current TD Ranking: 6
Raya is an intriguing prospect because the Twins have been cautious with his usage throughout his professional career. Last season, he never faced a batter beyond the fourth inning, and that trend has continued this season. His strikeout rate has jumped from 20.8% last year to 29.1% in 2024. It’s interesting to consider if the Twins might shift him to a bullpen role for the stretch run so he can help the big-league team. Minnesota would need to be in contention but he has the pitch mix to be a dangerous relief option. ETA: September

Yunior Severino, IF/DH
Current TD Ranking: 18
Severino was added to the 40-man roster this winter after tying for the minor league lead with 35 home runs. Minnesota assigned him to Triple-A this season, and he’s struggled to find consistent success at the plate. In 42 games, he has posted a .611 OPS with a 33.9 K%. His walk rate has jumped nearly two percent this season while being over two and half years younger than the average age of the competition in the International League. Severino is on the 40-man roster, so the team might need to turn to him sometime in the second half. ETA: August

Would you change any of the ETAs? What other prospects can help the team in 2024? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

View full article

[Karbo]

If Julian can't pick it up a bit, and if Lee does well at AAA I can see him up in a few weeks, maybe sooner if there is an injury. If SWR keeps pitching well I don't see Festa getting the call until the end of AAA season to be in the pen. If SWR goes in the tank then Festa will get his chance IMO.

[Dman]

I think Festa has a real shot at being the next man up even though he isn't on the 40 man roster.  HIs stuff has always been good, it has been more about keeping it going the second and third time through the order.  It is early and they just started letting him go 80 pitches or so in a game so hard to say his stamina will remain, but with the K rate he currently has I have to believe that should translate well to MLB.

If Lewis returns it seems harder to see them needing Lee.  Even if Jullien gets sent back they have Castro and Farmer for that spot so they wouldn't "need" Lee there, but if he is killing it in AAA sure I could see them switch Jullien for Lee if Jullien continues to slump.

I think the OP has the timing on Rodriguez about right.  Unless there is another Kepler and or Larnach injury I don't see them Moving Rodriguez to the MLB level.  He should face some AAA competition to be sure he can handle more breaking and off speed stuff from the AAAA, fringe MLB players that are there.  If he can do that then they might as well see what he can do at the MLB level.  Still I think they remain patient since he is only 21.

Raya and Severino would be huge long shots IMO.  Raya needs a lot of improvement just to be considered.  He has the pitches but he needs better command and control.  WHIP is too high especially for the small amount of innings pitched.  Hopefully he figures a few more things out and becomes a bit more dominant.

[LambchoP]

While not a top prospect because he's a bit older, I say Keirsey Jr!

[FlyingFinn]

Severino, no. He's in more danger of being dropped from the 40 man than playing for the Twins this year. Wallner's having a rough season but Severino's numbers are even worse (plus, when Lewis returns, we have more than enough players at 1B and 3B with Miranda playing well).

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Festa looked really good in a 2024 spring training game I saw. (I know that is not a key test of his readiness, but just saying.) He is the next SP for the Twins, should/ when the need arises. I would like to see Keirsey brought up and Margot released/traded/ optioned/ off the roster. But then do the Twins send Julian to AAA when Lewis is ready? Only if Lewis plays 2B. Farmer is having a really poor year so far. 

[thelanges5]

Raya only pitching 3.1 innings per. Anyone know why?

[Cory Engelhardt]

I don't see Severino as an option at all. Too many guys way ahead of him on the pecking order, and his numbers at AAA are extremely poor right now. 

What about Zebby Matthews? I almost see him as being more ready as a starter than Raya at this point. 

I also don't see a way that Rodriguez doesn't get a shot sooner if he keeps hitting like this. He is on the 40 man, which certainly means he is a phone call away. Jorge Polanco, if I remember correctly, got recalled directly from high A initially, maybe mostly because he was on the 40 man. Prospects don't NEED to have time at each level to prove they are ready, so I'd imagine Rodriguez, if there is an opening, gets a shot before others do BECAUSE he is on the 40 man now.

[IndianaTwin]

42 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Raya only pitching 3.1 innings per. Anyone know why?

I think they pay more attention to pitches than innings. It's been a slow progression: 

Last year, Raya didn't top 54 pitches in a game, so they've allowed him to jump up a bit, but he's also still only 21.

FWIW, Festa averaged 57.8 pitches over his first five starts, but 77.8 in his last five. That looks like the pitch count of someone they see as next in line (or next after Varland, particularly with Varland already being on the 40-man). 

EDIT to add: Last year Raya averaged 45 pitches over 22 starts. I'm guessing that if they get 22 starts and average around 60 pitches (assuming a slight increase as the year goes on), they'd feel pretty good.

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

If Julian can't pick it up a bit, and if Lee does well at AAA I can see him up in a few weeks, maybe sooner if there is an injury. If SWR keeps pitching well I don't see Festa getting the call until the end of AAA season to be in the pen. If SWR goes in the tank then Festa will get his chance IMO.

I don't want to jinx anyone but you're assuming none of the starters spend any appreciable time on the IL.

[bean5302]

37 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Raya only pitching 3.1 innings per. Anyone know why?

Drafted out of high school 2020 (obviously didn't pitch much)
Shoulder strain kept him off the field all 2021
Shoulder tightness showed back up in 2022 which shut him down for early/mid August
After that point, the Twins severely limited his innings/pitch count.
2023, started with a 3 inning limit, never pitched more than 54 pitches in a game.
2024, started with a 3 inning limit again, recently pitched 60 pitches.

Basically, the Twins are concerned his shoulder won't handle a full workload so they're bringing him along slowly.

[bean5302]

Festa is probably the most likely to get called up next. There are injuries in the rotation fairly frequently over the year. I don't think Varland has much more leash as a starter in AAA at this point. He's getting shelled down there.

[Doctor Gast]

I can see all but Raya & definitely not Severino make the team this year. None will make much of an impact except Lee. IMO Emma will have some problems with MLB pitching because he'll be well scouted. Even though Keirsey isn't on the 40-man he'd make more of an impact than Emma in '24. Festa will get his feet wet & that's all unless there is a big problem with injuries. If injuries become a bigger problem then Raya could become an opener but I don't see that happening.

[TopGunn#22]

A lot of this depends on health.  If guys get hurt, opportunities present themselves.  However, "performance" should also be a consideration.  The Twins have demonstrated in the past that they are VERY averse to making snap decisions based on "performance."  Witness...Gallo, Shoemaker, Sano, et al. (the list is quite long).  The Twins will stick with a poor performing player well past their "best used by" date.

Margot should be gone.  Farmer is doing nothing to compel me to WANT to stick with him.  That's $10 million of "mistakes."

If Julien continues to take called 3rd strikes and Lee gets hot right out of the gate at St. Paul there should be pressure to give Julien a chance to find his confidence and stroke down in St. Paul.  It doesn't mean Julien won't make it back up.

E-Rod is a VERY interesting case.  Keirsey is already performing well in St. Paul, and he has for the last 2 seasons.  But it's also true that guys can make the jump straight from AA. 

SWR is giving the Twins a tremendous lift to date.  If he maintains, he's not coming out of the rotation.  But if Paddack falters, that could open the door for Festa.  I think unless Louis Varland gets his act together at St. Paul he's pitching himself into a future bullpen role on the big club. 

Raya and Severino are farther away than projected.  I can't see Raya up until mid-late 2025 until he's proven he can hit 80-90 pitches.  That's as a STARTER.  If the Twins want to promote him to shore up the bullpen in a stretch run and for the playoffs he could get broken in slowly in a Johan Santana type of way.    

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, LambchoP said:

While not a top prospect because he's a bit older, I say Keirsey Jr!

As someone with a chance to make an impact he has to be up there.  Raya is not close. Erod is only slightly closer in that he had to be added to the 40.  Table those for next year.

Micheal Helman probably has a better chance at an impact than those two.

[jorgenswest]

Prospect is an arbitrary term. It is really about players in the organization. Does Festa’s performance open up the possibility that Varland can be moved to the bullpen. Can he make an impact there?

Wallner made an impact last year also. I think he will return later this year and be available part of the outfield.

[wabene]

If there is one thing I learned this year, is we have no clue what will happen. At least I don't. I said all spring that Julien was regression proof because he was "special". There you have it. Others, notably Bean I think, used actual stats to state why Julien was a regression candidate.

I will just let the rest of the season wash over me....

[BH67]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Festa is probably the most likely to get called up next. There are injuries in the rotation fairly frequently over the year. I don't think Varland has much more leash as a starter in AAA at this point. He's getting shelled down there.

I tip the hat to Falvine for developing a farm system in which a rise and fall like those of Julien, Wallner and Varland can be addressed with increasingly talented players from within. And the system has the skills to bring a renaissance with Miranda, and perhaps these three going forward. Applause is warranted.

[bean5302]

3 minutes ago, BH67 said:

I tip the hat to Falvine for developing a farm system in which a rise and fall like those of Julien, Wallner and Varland can be addressed with increasingly talented players from within. And the system has the skills to bring a renaissance with Miranda, and perhaps these three going forward. Applause is warranted.

I'm not sure if you're tipping your cap because Falvey hasn't been successful in developing virtually any reliable talent at the MLB level or if you're being serious that it's a good thing the farm system is still hanging in there middle of the pack style? LOL.

[BH67]

8 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I'm not sure if you're tipping your cap because Falvey hasn't been successful in developing virtually any reliable talent at the MLB level or if you're being serious that it's a good thing the farm system is still hanging in there middle of the pack style? LOL.

I disagree. There was a point two or three seasons ago when the Twins had allowed the fewest runs at midseason in three of their four post-complex leagues (not AAA). That's not accidental. I was frustrated a great deal by the free agent signings in the past few years in the hopes that reliable talent would finally emerge from the farm. I've seen enough to think the current situation is sustainable.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

 

Wallner made an impact last year also. I think he will return later this year and be available part of the outfield.

Especially in the post season which level he is still at today.

[Dman]

2 hours ago, wabene said:

If there is one thing I learned this year, is we have no clue what will happen. At least I don't. I said all spring that Julien was regression proof because he was "special". There you have it. Others, notably Bean I think, used actual stats to state why Julien was a regression candidate.

I will just let the rest of the season wash over me....

I was right there with you.  I really felt his mastery of the zone would buoy him through slumps.  His not swinging at strikes he doesn't like appears to be catching up to him.  I still think he will make the adjustments he needs to make and be a stronger hitter when it is all said and done.  Just hard to watch right now.

So much goes into the game that makes it so hard to predict.  just a centimeter off with the bat to the ball can be the difference in a ground ball, pop fly or home run.  Sometimes poor contact gets you a hit and hard contact an out.  With all the data out there teams can pinpoint weaknesses quickly and exploit them so it is hard to get consistent results.

Still yeah, I thought Julien had the elite plate discipline to slump proof him.  Looks like adjustments need to be made.

[RpR]

6 minutes ago, Dman said:

Still yeah, I thought Julien had the elite plate discipline to slump proof him.  Looks like adjustments need to be made.

NO player EVER, has been or will be slump proof.

What matters is if it is a slump or exposes the truth.

[DocBauer]

I look at it as prospects that have a chance to help this season even if they aren't on the 40 man at this time, or considered amongst the TOP prospects in the system.

Severino has been heating up and doing much better lately. But he's got to take a few more steps before he's even going to be considered as a late season option. And as pointed out, for the moment, we've got enough guys playing 1B.

Despite Raya being brought along slowly, and understanding why but hating the length of the process, he's just not going to be part of the equation for this season. 

Take those two off and add Keirsey and Helman instead. Neither on the 40 man, but Margot is not long for the team the way things are going. Keirsey and Helman are older "prospects" but prospects nonetheless. Helman has been on the Twins radar for a couple of years now, but has been held back due to injury. After a slow start this season he's been doing really well and he provides a POTENTIALLY decent RH bat with pop and speed and real position flexibility. He could be an option in the second half due to being RH, having speed, and filling in if we have some unfortunate injuries.

We've talked about Keirsey enough on so many different posts that going in to reasons why just aren't necessary at this point. 

[Dman]

17 minutes ago, RpR said:

NO player EVER, has been or will be slump proof.

What matters is if it is a slump or exposes the truth.

Yeah by slump proof I just felt that even if he didn't get a hit for a week he might walk 7 to 10 times keeping his OBP on track until the hits started falling again. HIs 20% walk rate in the minors seemed like it could help him avoid complete 0 for nights.

This year he is still walking at a good pace 12.6% but his K rate is 10% higher than at AAA at nearly 35% this year.  Lots of people were screaming regression was coming after last year because of the high BABIP of .371, but his BABIP had been in the .380 range the last three years so I got fooled by his numbers a bit and felt his unique approach might allow for a higher BABIP.  Certainly not at the .370 range, but I thought he could maybe hang around .350 with his picky approach.

The difference this year is his BABIP is more normalized at .280 and his K rate the highest of his professional career at 33.5%.  The higher K rate leaves fewer balls to be put in play and he isn't making the solid contact this year that he did last year.  Pitchers have caught on and are creating tougher decisions as they move those strike 3 pitches just into the zone instead of just outside.  Not all the time as his 12% walk rate shows but enough variance to up his K rate.  They also seem to be staying away from his hot zone or throwing tougher pitches there which explains the poor contact leading to the lower BABIP.

It looks like it is going to take some time for him to work through things IMO.  I still think he has a strong approach, but he needs to find ways to impact the ball in more areas of plate and he might need to swing at pitches slightly out of the zone after two strikes to protect the plate.  I still think he will make the adjustments but it might take longer than the Twins can afford.  Have to wait and see I guess.

To your point yes every player slumps during the year.  Often times due to small injuries or just tough BABIP luck.  Walks can help keep a hitter afloat though.

[FlyingFinn]

53 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Take those two off and add Keirsey and Helman instead. Neither on the 40 man, but Margot is not long for the team the way things are going. Keirsey and Helman are older "prospects" but prospects nonetheless.

Agreed.

I still think the Twins love the lefty/righty split that they currently have on the team. If Margot is dumped, they could call up Helman. You and I would probably be fine with it but I think most on TD will say "why not Kiersey?" Kiersey probably needs an injury to a LH hitting outfielder to get his shot (or Buxton getting hurt as I think he is our 2nd best defender out there - not lefty for lefty in this situation I know). 

[purplesoldier4u]

4 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

As always is the case, injuries will be the deciding factor for these guys to come up. The only other option for availability is if someone like Margot gets DFA'd but given the FO's track record (see Gallo), that won't happen.

The difference is the team is on the hook for much less money with Margot than with Gallo.

[purplesoldier4u]

3 hours ago, RpR said:

Especially in the post season which level he is still at today.

Long, loopy swings do not bode well for him.

[Patzky]

FWIW Royce Lewis and Keirsey Jr are sitting out tonight's Saints game.

[thelanges5]

12 minutes ago, Patzky said:

FWIW Royce Lewis and Keirsey Jr are sitting out tonight's Saints game.

Royce played 3B in the first game of the double header.