Guardians 5, Twins 2: Hiccup of a Comeback Goes for Naught

[Hans Birkeland]

The Twins have struggled against the Guardians recently, and Sunday was no exception. Cleveland took an early lead, gave it up in a fairly silly sequence, and then walked the Twins off on the strength of a walkoff homer by Twins killer Will Brennan.

Image courtesy of © Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Chris Paddack: 8 IP, 3 H 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K (100 Pitches, 72 Strikes, 72%)
Home Runs: Jose Miranda (3)
Bottom 3 WPA: Jhoan Duran (-.366), Carlos Santana (-.270), Ryan Jeffers (-.120)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

The Twins came into today's matchup with the Guardians on a five-game losing streak, their offense completely shut down by an assortment of Yankees and Guardians pitchers. Those two teams have frustrated the Twins more than any other teams post-9/11, and that trend would continue today.

Tanner Bibee took the ball for Cleveland. He has had a down 2024 compared to his rookie season last year, in which he finished second in Rookie of the Year voting. His fastball has been hit hard, despite good velocity, (up to 98 MPH) as it registers in the first percentile regarding fastball run value, according to Baseball Savant. His offspeed? The 98th percentile.

His polar opposite is Chris Paddack, who took the start for the Twins. His fastball has rated highly and far outpaces his offspeed and breaking pitches. The first batter he faced grounded to Jose Miranda at third base, who couldn't handle the pick and allowed Tyler Freeman to reach. That would prove crucial, as Andres Gimenez jumped on a 2-0 fastball and crushed it to right center, 412 feet.

Jose Ramirez, fresh off being called underrated/unheralded/underappreciated for the 7,000th time, a league record, nearly hit another homer on Paddack's next pitch but Max Kepler made a leaping catch at the wall for the first out.

The second inning was much more impressive, as Paddack set the Guardians down in order, emphasizing his change-up and slider and getting several whiffs.

In the third inning, Miranda redeemed himself for his earlier misplay, as he took a fastball above the zone at 97 MPH from Bibee and deposited it in the left field seats to cut the lead in half. It was a quality swing from Miranda, but also underscores the weakness of Bibee- 97 MPH fastballs out of the zone should not be hit for damage, particularly if the hitter also has to guard against two other quality pitches.

Paddack was cruising by this point, taking advantage of an aggressive approach from Cleveland's hitters to get quick outs and lots of weak contact. He finished his fourth inning at 36 pitches, throwing every non-fastball for strikes, Gabriel Arias was able to hit two balls above 110 MPH, but one was a lineout to center, and the other an innocent double in the fifth.

The Twins made plenty of hard contact against Bibee, as well (Particularly Trevor Larnach), but were unable to string anything together. They began the seventh with a Max Kepler double, but Bibee struck out Santana on a questionable call to retire the side.

The Twins did the impossible in the ninth, as Jeffers drew a two-out hit-by-pitch and was pinch run for by Byron Buxton. Willi Castro smoked a ball up the middle, and shortstop Bryan Rocchio tried to beat Buxton to the bag. Buxton was ruled safe and that was upheld after review. Alex Kirilloff then hit a weak grounder to first, but Cleveland's closer Emannual Clase inexplicably dropped the ball. Buxton then got caught between third and home, but first baseman Josh Naylor threw to third, and Buxton dashed home to tie the game.

 

This was the traditional Guardians tease, as with two outs and facing Jhoan Duran, singles hitter Will Brennan hit a curveball on the inside corner out to right field to win the game. And I have to write that.

The Good:
-Paddack was efficient and effective, even while relying heavily on non-fastballs, a good sign for him going forward.
-Santana and Larnach were stinging balls all over the park, with almost nothing to show for it.

The Bad:
-Ryan Jeffers seems to be pressing to lift the offense all by himself. it's not working, although he did spur the Twins uprising in the ninth.
-Edouard Julien is really in a funk, unable to drive anything and getting consistently fooled by good pitch sequencing.

What’s Next: Pablo Lopez (4-3, 3.93 ERA), goes against Mitchell Parker (2-2, 3.09 ERA) as the Twins begin a series in D.C. Parker is a 24-year-old lefty with good stuff, while Lopez had one of his worst starts of 2023 against the Nationals, although that could be attributed to 30-degree temperatures for that April game.

Postgame Interviews:

Bullpen Usage Chart:

	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	TOT
Boushley	0	0	0	0	0	0
Staumont	17	0	0	0	0	17
Funderburk	29	0	0	38	0	67
Okert	0	6	11	0	0	27
Sands	0	18	0	0	0	18
Durán	0	0	10	0	14	24
Thielbar	0	9	0	0	0	9
Jax	0	0	9	0	0	9

 

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[USAFChief]

ish.

[bean5302]

Ryan Jeffers wOBA .400 vs. xwOBA .359 (still great). He's got a ways to go on the regression, but no matter what way you look at it, he's been very good this year.

After clearly starting the season off on one side of luck, Larnach is now on the opposite side of the luck line. It seems like his bat will bounce back at this point.

Santana isn't taking walks anymore which has been the hallmark of his bat's value over the years. Expecting him to put up a season even at league average marks is probably a stretch.

[Patzky]

Man Paddock is just.. deserves better. Yes agree about Julien. Plus others! What a crusher..

[DJL44]

Duran has great velocity but often lousy location.

[Peter]

Umpires swept twins. When is mlb going to get rid of them??? They cost us first place. 24-22 5.5 games out. Sweep Washington then 2-1 against Texas! 3-1 against KC that puts us at 32-24, bad funk right now but just pissed twins lost to umpires this weekend. Hope wolves get win but will be hard to watch after twins losing 6 in a row. 

[mikelink45]

I can't ever blame. Umpires, this is a losing streak. It goes back to the beginning of the season. We had that wonderful winning streak that made us feel like the twins had their act together. But then we go against two first place teams and seem to lose confidence in ourselves

[Mark G]

Ouch!  Ouch!  OUCH!  That is what a 3 game sweep feels like, especially.......wait a minute.....I think I already sent this post after the Yankee series.  🤔  Well, at least we scored 8 runs this series; let's see......that makes 9 runs in the last 6 games.  Hmmm.....I do believe we will sweep the Nationals!  Yes!  We will sweep the Nationals!  We will........won't we?  🙄

[darwin22]

Not an unexpected result as this "offense" is truly OFFENSIVE.  Just pathetic. 

9 runs scored this week in 6 games.  Boy, SWR and Paddack deserved so much better.

I know many to blame for this recent offensive funk, but here are 4 that have been brutal in May:

Vazquez: 

1-30 (.033) with 2 RBI/ 8 K's-0 BB---------I understand his defense is good, but how much longer must we endure him as an AUTOMATIC out?

Kirilloff:

3 for his last 38 (.079), 2 HRs, 3 RBI with 12 whiffs and 4 BB.  Looks totally LOST at plate.  Does he have an option remaining?

Larnach:

Hit 2 balls hard today, but the numbers don't lie:  8-44 this month (.182), 1 HR, 4 RBI with 12 K's and only 3 BB.

Julien:

What has happened to his stroke?  Now in 9-49 stretch his month (.184) with ZERO pop--0 HRs & only 3 RBI.  Bigger concern is his 21 whiffs vs. only 7 BB.

Yes---there are others doing next to nothing (Buxton, Castro and Correa) that are daily starters, but these four have been especially awful.

Unless things turn around soon---settle in for a 4th place finish with a struggle to reach .500 by end of season.

 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

No position player is doing their job right now. That includes Correa. Changes need to be made in the dugout.

[Danchat]

Cleveland legitimately manufactured a run for us to blow that save... HBP + 2 errors is the only way this team was tying the game against Clase!

What a waste of a great start from Paddack. He has surpassed my expectations so far this year.

[Doctor Gast]

39 minutes ago, Peter said:

Umpires swept twins. When is mlb going to get rid of them??? They cost us first place. 24-22 5.5 games out. Sweep Washington then 2-1 against Texas! 3-1 against KC that puts us at 32-24, bad funk right now but just pissed twins lost to umpires this weekend. Hope wolves get win but will be hard to watch after twins losing 6 in a row. 

I watch everything but I agree we need to get rid umps calling strikes. Most of the time they get it right but when they don't it really affects the game. We don't need that.

[Doctor Gast]

Hats off to Paddack for pitching a great game & pitching into the 8th. He was pretty efficient,

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Interesting comments from Duran on the pitch selection. In short, thanks, Vazquez.

[IndyTwinsFan]

I think it's time to take a short break from watching this team.  The offense, defense, and bullpen have been so offensive lately that each game I watch becomes an exercise in seeing how much (or little?) nauseating play I can tolerate before deciding I've had enough for one day.  Right now, it's not even one inning. 

I'll be back to watch soon enough.  I'm just not sure when yet.

[IndyTwinsFan]

24 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Interesting comments from Duran on the pitch selection. In short, thanks, Vazquez.

Now it appears that some are starting to point fingers at some of their teammates.  That's definitely not a good sign.

[IndyTwinsFan]

1 hour ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

No position player is doing their job right now. That includes Correa. Changes need to be made in the dugout.

... and/or higher up than that.

[Mark G]

1 hour ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

No position player is doing their job right now. That includes Correa. Changes need to be made in the dugout.

I don't know, Castro is getting guys out in relief.  😉

[Schmoeman5]

43 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Interesting comments from Duran on the pitch selection. In short, thanks, Vazquez.

That was said the other day too. Is Duran shaking it off not an option?  Or call time and go out there and discuss.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

9 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

That was said the other day too. Is Duran shaking it off not an option?  Or call time and go out there and discuss.

Good question...

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I can't ever blame. Umpires, this is a losing streak. It goes back to the beginning of the season. We had that wonderful winning streak that made us feel like the twins had their act together. But then we go against two first place teams and seem to lose confidence in ourselves

The whole truth and nothing but the the truth ...

Are the twins winners or losers , It's hard to come to any conclusion yet ,   we got to beat the better teams , Chicago and Anaheim are bad teams we took batting practice against them and built up some confidence ...

We have to play better baseball against better teams and their starting pitchers  ...

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, darwin22 said:

Not an unexpected result as this "offense" is truly OFFENSIVE.  Just pathetic. 

9 runs scored this week in 6 games.  Boy, SWR and Paddack deserved so much better.

I know many to blame for this recent offensive funk, but here are 4 that have been brutal in May:

Vazquez: 

1-30 (.033) with 2 RBI/ 8 K's-0 BB---------I understand his defense is good, but how much longer must we endure him as an AUTOMATIC out?

Kirilloff:

3 for his last 38 (.079), 2 HRs, 3 RBI with 12 whiffs and 4 BB.  Looks totally LOST at plate.  Does he have an option remaining?

Larnach:

Hit 2 balls hard today, but the numbers don't lie:  8-44 this month (.182), 1 HR, 4 RBI with 12 K's and only 3 BB.

Julien:

What has happened to his stroke?  Now in 9-49 stretch his month (.184) with ZERO pop--0 HRs & only 3 RBI.  Bigger concern is his 21 whiffs vs. only 7 BB.

Yes---there are others doing next to nothing (Buxton, Castro and Correa) that are daily starters, but these four have been especially awful.

Unless things turn around soon---settle in for a 4th place finish with a struggle to reach .500 by end of season.

 

Not an unexpected result , I would agree with you ...

The whole team is a pathetic  , pitiful and piss poor except for the 2 good starts this week by woods richardson  and paddack ...

It's hard to watch and not to exciting  but watching paddack pitch 8 innings was nice ...

[howeda7]

1 hour ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Interesting comments from Duran on the pitch selection. In short, thanks, Vazquez.

At least he makes up for it with his bat. 

[howeda7]

Cleveland is just better than the Twins. They play defense. They get runners over. They actually play their best hitters every day instead of sitting them on the bench to platoon someone hitting .180 because a spreadsheet says to do so. 

[Vanimal46]

2 hours ago, Peter said:

Umpires swept twins. When is mlb going to get rid of them???

Blaming umpires rings hollow when the Twins offense is this bad. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

How in the heck is anyone blaming the umps for yesterday's debacle??!

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Patzky said:

Man Paddock is just.. deserves better. Yes agree about Julien. Plus others! What a crusher..

Dude is 4-2 with a 4.89 ERA coming into the game with 5 of his 8 prior starts having an FIP over 5.00. I think the woe is Chris Paddack stuff can wait.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The radio guys were gushing over Buxton’s speed creating that run in the 9th. True enough, but Buxton looked out on the force at second, which would have ended the game. And then got caught in the rundown but caught a break. 

Speaking of rundowns, it’s crazy that Julien just stood at his position when Gimenez was hung out to dry between second and third. If you are an infielder (including pitcher) and not being useful during a play, and there’s a base uncovered, go cover the empty base. Correa took off following Gimenez when Gimenez broke for third, which was the right play. But then Correa had to go back and cover second when Julien wasn’t there. That might have thrown off Vazquez that no one was really at the bag. 

Correa and Julien have this weird thing where Correa seems to do all the work on any difficult or unusual play that isn’t straightforward cut & dry. Not good!

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

35 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

The radio guys were gushing over Buxton’s speed creating that run in the 9th. True enough, but Buxton looked out on the force at second, which would have ended the game. And then got caught in the rundown but caught a break. 

Speaking of rundowns, it’s crazy that Julien just stood at his position when Gimenez was hung out to dry between second and third. If you are an infielder (including pitcher) and not being useful during a play, and there’s a base uncovered, go cover the empty base. Correa took off following Gimenez when Gimenez broke for third, which was the right play. But then Correa had to go back and cover second when Julien wasn’t there. That might have thrown off Vazquez that no one was really at the bag. 

Correa and Julien have this weird thing where Correa seems to do all the work on any difficult or unusual play that isn’t straightforward cut & dry. Not good!

Just one of too many examples where the Twins beat themselves. Cleveland isn't a more talented roster. They're smarter and better managed. 

[h2oface]

It was off speed breaking ball on Friday from Duran too. Friday it was Jeffers that just kept calling them, and today it was Vazquez on the first pitch. Just so so clever they are. The guy can blow it by the batter, but don't let him.

Julien was sleeping when the last out, Gimenez. was stranded between 2nd and 3rd, yes, but Vazquez could have faked a throw to solve the delay. I really don't see much value in a $10 million catcher that is supposed to be Mr. Defense, (especially because he hits worse than pitchers used to), can't get the third out there. We should have been into the 8th right then. No decision to walk Naylor and pitch to another batter needed.

This team is so very disappointing these last 6 games.