Twins Video
Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Chris Paddack: 8 IP, 3 H 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K (100 Pitches, 72 Strikes, 72%)
Home Runs: Jose Miranda (3)
Bottom 3 WPA: Jhoan Duran (-.366), Carlos Santana (-.270), Ryan Jeffers (-.120)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):
The Twins came into today's matchup with the Guardians on a five-game losing streak, their offense completely shut down by an assortment of Yankees and Guardians pitchers. Those two teams have frustrated the Twins more than any other teams post-9/11, and that trend would continue today.
Tanner Bibee took the ball for Cleveland. He has had a down 2024 compared to his rookie season last year, in which he finished second in Rookie of the Year voting. His fastball has been hit hard, despite good velocity, (up to 98 MPH) as it registers in the first percentile regarding fastball run value, according to Baseball Savant. His offspeed? The 98th percentile.
His polar opposite is Chris Paddack, who took the start for the Twins. His fastball has rated highly and far outpaces his offspeed and breaking pitches. The first batter he faced grounded to Jose Miranda at third base, who couldn't handle the pick and allowed Tyler Freeman to reach. That would prove crucial, as Andres Gimenez jumped on a 2-0 fastball and crushed it to right center, 412 feet.
Jose Ramirez, fresh off being called underrated/unheralded/underappreciated for the 7,000th time, a league record, nearly hit another homer on Paddack's next pitch but Max Kepler made a leaping catch at the wall for the first out.
The second inning was much more impressive, as Paddack set the Guardians down in order, emphasizing his change-up and slider and getting several whiffs.
In the third inning, Miranda redeemed himself for his earlier misplay, as he took a fastball above the zone at 97 MPH from Bibee and deposited it in the left field seats to cut the lead in half. It was a quality swing from Miranda, but also underscores the weakness of Bibee- 97 MPH fastballs out of the zone should not be hit for damage, particularly if the hitter also has to guard against two other quality pitches.
Paddack was cruising by this point, taking advantage of an aggressive approach from Cleveland's hitters to get quick outs and lots of weak contact. He finished his fourth inning at 36 pitches, throwing every non-fastball for strikes, Gabriel Arias was able to hit two balls above 110 MPH, but one was a lineout to center, and the other an innocent double in the fifth.
The Twins made plenty of hard contact against Bibee, as well (Particularly Trevor Larnach), but were unable to string anything together. They began the seventh with a Max Kepler double, but Bibee struck out Santana on a questionable call to retire the side.
The Twins did the impossible in the ninth, as Jeffers drew a two-out hit-by-pitch and was pinch run for by Byron Buxton. Willi Castro smoked a ball up the middle, and shortstop Bryan Rocchio tried to beat Buxton to the bag. Buxton was ruled safe and that was upheld after review. Alex Kirilloff then hit a weak grounder to first, but Cleveland's closer Emannual Clase inexplicably dropped the ball. Buxton then got caught between third and home, but first baseman Josh Naylor threw to third, and Buxton dashed home to tie the game.
This was the traditional Guardians tease, as with two outs and facing Jhoan Duran, singles hitter Will Brennan hit a curveball on the inside corner out to right field to win the game. And I have to write that.
The Good:
-Paddack was efficient and effective, even while relying heavily on non-fastballs, a good sign for him going forward.
-Santana and Larnach were stinging balls all over the park, with almost nothing to show for it.
The Bad:
-Ryan Jeffers seems to be pressing to lift the offense all by himself. it's not working, although he did spur the Twins uprising in the ninth.
-Edouard Julien is really in a funk, unable to drive anything and getting consistently fooled by good pitch sequencing.
What’s Next: Pablo Lopez (4-3, 3.93 ERA), goes against Mitchell Parker (2-2, 3.09 ERA) as the Twins begin a series in D.C. Parker is a 24-year-old lefty with good stuff, while Lopez had one of his worst starts of 2023 against the Nationals, although that could be attributed to 30-degree temperatures for that April game.
Postgame Interviews:
Bullpen Usage Chart:
| WED | THU | FRI | SAT | SUN | TOT | |
| Boushley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Staumont | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
| Funderburk | 29 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 67 |
| Okert | 0 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 27 |
| Sands | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| Durán | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 14 | 24 |
| Thielbar | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Jax | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
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