The Twins Have Rising Concerns with Workload Management

[Cody Christie]

Major League Baseball’s season is a grueling 162-game gauntlet with many challenges. Workload management might start becoming a concern for the Twins in the weeks ahead.

Image courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

In baseball’s current landscape, few players like Cal Ripken Jr. can play daily. Players get injured, wear down, or deal with poor performance. The Twins have a couple of players where workload management might become a more significant issue if the team doesn’t start managing playing time. Wins are great in the season’s early months, but it’s essential to be healthy in September and October. So, which players or position groups are most concerning regarding early season workload? How can the Twins strategically manage their workloads in the coming months?

Ryan Jeffers
Jeffers has been not only the Twins’ best hitter but also one of baseball’s best hitters this season. He’s near the top of the league in multiple offensive categories, which is remarkable for a catcher. The Twins have continued to use a two-catcher rotation, with Jeffers splitting time with Christian Vazquez. Last season, this worked well to keep both players healthy, as neither player needed time on the IL. Minnesota has used Jeffers regularly at DH this season to keep his bat in the lineup, which might cause his body to wear down throughout the season. He’s started 19 games at catcher and 14 at DH, with 40% of his plate appearances coming at DH. 

As the season progresses, there are ways for Jeffers to get more regular rest. Minnesota’s offense has been clicking with him in the lineup on a nearly daily basis. However, there are other options for the DH spot. Royce Lewis is scheduled to return in June, and the Twins might want to ease him back into a regular role with some time at DH. Other DH options include Byron Buxton, Jose Miranda, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner. Miranda and Larnach have shown improved offensive improvement since returning to the Twins. Buxton is on the IL but should return shortly, while Waller has been destroying the ball for the Saints. Jeffers has been the team MVP, but they need him to be healthy in the second half. 

Chris Paddack
During spring training, Paddack openly discussed wanting to be a workhorse this season but that is unlikely in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. He has averaged 5 1/3 innings in his seven starts while averaging 90 pitches per game. He had one clunker against Baltimore, allowing nine earned runs in 5 1/3 innings. Paddack bounced back in his next start with his best performance of the year, which included ten strikeouts in seven shutout innings. His fastball has been one of the most valuable in baseball, with a Fastball Run Value in the 82nd percentile with a 28.3 Whiff% and a 33.3 Put Away%. 

The Twins have already found ways to push back some of his starts this season by shuffling the rotation. It also wouldn’t be surprising for the team to skip some of his starts around the All-Star break so he gets a more extended period off. Last season, the Twins had to monitor Kenta Maeda’s innings since he was returning from Tommy John surgery. He combined for 104 1/3 innings in 21 appearances (20 starts). Paddack is already at 37 1/3 innings through seven starts. There can be some fatigue as his inning count rises, so he might need an IL stint to ensure he has innings left before finishing the season. 

Bullpen
There isn’t a specific player to target for managing the workload in the bullpen, but the entire group has been used regularly to start the year. Minnesota has found itself winning regularly in recent weeks, and those wins have included a lot of close games, putting increased pressure on late-inning arms. There have been some recent frustrating losses due to the best relievers not being available on a given night. The Twins bullpen looked great in the season’s early weeks. Still, injuries have already impacted the overall performance, with critical relievers Jhoan Duran, Brock Stewart, Caleb Thielbar, and Justin Topa missing time. Other relievers have been forced to take on higher leverage roles without these late-inning arms. 

The Twins rank 19th in innings pitched from the bullpen this season, but they have the highest K/9 and the second-highest LOB% in the American League. Since the start of last season, the Twins have been the best team in baseball when leading entering the 9th inning (90-1 record, .989 winning percentage). Twins manager Rocco Baldelli has also been more strategic in using his late-inning options, including having Duran enter in the eighth if the opposition has the heart of their lineup scheduled to hit. Besides Duran, five other players have earned a save this season, including Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Cole Sands, and Steven Okert. It’s been a recipe for success, but the team needs it to last all year. 

Minnesota has valued depth at multiple spots on the roster in recent years. As the season progresses, workload management needs to be part of the team’s plan. Jeffers and Paddack are critical to their position groups, while the bullpen needs to be effective for the team to have continued success. Every win is important, but it’s even more important to be healthy entering the playoffs.  

Which player or position group needs their workload managed the most? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[LambchoP]

I think the bullpen would benefit greatly from designating Sands as the multi inning long man reliever, and then calling up Alcala and Varland as high octane , one inning set up arms. Getting a solid starter at the trade deadline sure wouldn't hurt either...

[Karbo]

I don't see catcher being a problem unless someone gets hurt. I am concerned with the starting rotation though, The pen is getting a lot of work, but they do need to be better about having guys get warmed up and not using them, then the next night they warm again and don't get used, on the 3rd night warm up and come in. A full warm up should be considered an appearance and after 2 straight most will need a day off. It's not like the old days of bringing guys in 2-3 days in a row and expecting multiple innings. Sands came in on a 3rd warm up day and looked gassed. It would help to have a couple of 2 inning guys.

[USAFChief]

You know who doesn't worry about "workload management?"

The Dodgers, Braves, Yankees and Orioles.

The four best teams in the game.

If their best players are healthy, they play. Every day.

[RpR]

If a player is told he will play every day, he will play every day, of course with the Twins,  mommy will come running out and tell them they need to take a nap.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

44 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

You know who doesn't worry about "workload management?"

The Dodgers, Braves, Yankees and Orioles.

The four best teams in the game.

If their best players are healthy, they play. Every day.

The Braves might be the exception, as they have an absolute monster of a lineup, but for the most part, the Yankees, Orioles, and Dodgers aren’t that much different than the other teams where load management is concerned.  For the most part, outside of a couple of “iron men” on each team, you have “every day” types who play around 130-140 games, plus some players who will be in the 100-110 game range.  Some of that is surely due to injuries (which is part of what you are trying to avoid by resting them), but in many cases, the workloads are being controlled so that the player has something left in the tank in September.  Whether that is the magic bullet or not is certainly open to debate, but it’s not an uncommon practice throughout the league. 

[weneedneshek]

14 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

outside of a couple of “iron men” on each team

Do we have even one iron man?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

9 minutes ago, weneedneshek said:

Do we have even one iron man?

Last year we definitely didn't.  So far this year, I think Julien and Castro have played in every game, albeit not always in a starting role.  I would be surprised if they weren't at the top of the Twins' list at the end of the season as well. 

[FlyingFinn]

I'm a fan of rotating catchers to keep both healthy. But to limit Jeffers from DH'ing because of workload management? Really??? DH'ing for 4-5 at bats is really taking a tole on him? Have to disagree with that.

[weneedneshek]

11 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Last year we definitely didn't.  So far this year, I think Julien and Castro have played in every game, albeit not always in a starting role.  I would be surprised if they weren't at the top of the Twins' list at the end of the season as well. 

Personally I would not count sub appearances towards the definition of an iron man. I think plate appearances is probably the best stat. We have no one in the top 100

[DJL44]

Some of the workload comes during practice. That is an easy thing to limit as the season goes on. Maximize time on the field during games, especially during stretches of multiple days with no off day.

[Doctor Gast]

Workload management has been one of our biggest problem. At the end of every year we limp into the postseason (if even we make it there,) & bomb, contributing to the longest postseason losing streak. With fans complaining of rotten luck with the injuries & poor performance. Luck has very little to do with it, it's poor workload management. Last season except for the year prior holdovers, we had relatively few & minor injuries it's because of the better workload management. With the rotation, BP, battery & lineup fairly healthy & refreshed we were able to break that ugly record. 

IMO most everywhere is pretty well managed but my main concern is Paddack, SWR & our high-leverage BP. that they are properly managed & available to pitch quality innings when needed.

[CRF]

I'm concerned with Rocco's workload. I think he should take some time off. 

[Riverbrian]

Everybody's work load is being managed... Other than: Correa, Santana and Castro. 

[Danchat]

I'd be more on board with workload management if it actually reduced injuries... over the past few years with this roster, it hasn't.

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

The Braves might be the exception, as they have an absolute monster of a lineup, but for the most part, the Yankees, Orioles, and Dodgers aren’t that much different than the other teams where load management is concerned.  For the most part, outside of a couple of “iron men” on each team, you have “every day” types who play around 130-140 games, plus some players who will be in the 100-110 game range.  Some of that is surely due to injuries (which is part of what you are trying to avoid by resting them), but in many cases, the workloads are being controlled so that the player has something left in the tank in September.  Whether that is the magic bullet or not is certainly open to debate, but it’s not an uncommon practice throughout the league. 

False.

Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, Hernandez play almost every day. Will Smith has more PAs than any Twin.

There is zero evidence "load management" is beneficial. There are teams playing their best players virtually every day. As they should. 

[TwinsDr2021]

4 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

False.

Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, Hernandez play almost every day. Will Smith has more PAs than any Twin.

There is zero evidence "load management" is beneficial. There are teams playing there best players virtually every day.

There are 5 catchers in baseball that have more at bats than any twin. Castro is tied for 100th in MLB at bats. 13 catchers have more at bats than Jeffers. There is zero reason to talk load MGMT with the offensive players on the Twins.

[umterp23]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

There are 5 catchers in baseball that have more at bats than any twin. Castro is tied for 100th in MLB at bats. 13 catchers have more at bats than Jeffers. There is zero reason to talk load MGMT with the offensive players on the Twins.

AB's are somewhat deceiving in talking workload.  Position in lineup, inning to inning turnover of the lineup (is the team a good hitting team and scoring a bunch of runs).  I would rather look at games played, position played etc. vs strictly AB's.  Work load for some guys is something to pay attention but I don't believe we should be concerned at moments time.  Ride your best players until the need a day off and if so, schedule one knowing you may have a travel day next day as well.  

[Linus]

I am interested in if there is any data that suggests that load management prevents injuries?  It seems like a common sense notion but the Twins seem very proactive in this regard yet their injury history is pretty bad recently.  Makes me wonder if we are outsmarting ourselves. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

False.

Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, Hernandez play almost every day. Will Smith has more PAs than any Twin.

There is zero evidence "load management" is beneficial. There are teams playing their best players virtually every day. As they should. 

You are right.  Three guys from the Dodgers who will be in the discussion for MVP play almost every day.  We don't have a single player as good as Ohtani, Betts, or Freeman and we haven't since the days of Mauer and Morneau. 

I don't happen to think that load management is the be all and end all.  However, I also don't think it is as simple as "pencil your guys in every day and they will be fine".  There are absolutely players who can go out there every day no matter what, but there are a lot more who need the mental and physical break in order to keep fresh for the end of the season.  I don't think it's magic, but I don't think it's detrimental to the team.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

9 minutes ago, Linus said:

I am interested in if there is any data that suggests that load management prevents injuries?  It seems like a common sense notion but the Twins seem very proactive in this regard yet their injury history is pretty bad recently.  Makes me wonder if we are outsmarting ourselves. 

That is a great question.  Given the ridiculous number of variables, I'm not exactly sure how you come up with the data to figure it out.  It's hard to know if the Twins are better off for having done it, meaning their injury history would be even worse, or if it doesn't really matter anyway.  I happen to think the former, but I'm not sure how to test it. 

[bean5302]

41 minutes ago, Linus said:

I am interested in if there is any data that suggests that load management prevents injuries?  It seems like a common sense notion but the Twins seem very proactive in this regard yet their injury history is pretty bad recently.  Makes me wonder if we are outsmarting ourselves. 

There isn't because it doesn't. Over the past 25 years or so, the number of qualified batters has decreased a little. On average in 2000-2007, there would be 5-6 qualified position players on any given MLB team. In 2008-2020, it was 5 straight. After the 2020 season, things changed and it dropped to 4, but the projection is at 6 this season at the moment.

Terry Ryan 97%, Bill Smith 90%, Derek Falvey 74%

Tom Kelly 102%. Ron Gardenhire 100%, Paul Molitor 60%, Rocco Baldelli 78% (72% excluding 2020)

The Twins have consistently had few qualifying hitters the last few years. I remain convinced Baldelli's trying to revise his injury riddled career vicariously though his current players pretending more time off would have made him successful. It's purely my opinion I formed from reading his comments and interviews in the past.

[Patzky]

6 hours ago, weneedneshek said:

Do we have even one iron man?

Seems like it's been the elder statesman, Santana! If Correa wasn't hurt he'd be a 95 percenter too.

[Ctwink]

Its amazing how many World Series over the years were won by players who clearly needed a day off to rest their owies. Imagine how much better all those Yankees teams of yore would have been if only they knew their players should only be playing 4 days out of 5 rather than hitting homeruns EVERY day....  <tongue firmly planted in cheek>

The whole idea of workload management has been pushed as a requirement by the union to make sure players play to their full ability.  What its really been doing is keeping good players off of the diamond for no reason at all.  If workload management was really an actual thing, we would see players who are "properly rested" perform beyond expectations when they are allowed to play.  We don't.  The whole idea is idiotic...

[old nurse]

19 hours ago, USAFChief said:

You know who doesn't worry about "workload management?"

The Dodgers, Braves, Yankees and Orioles.

The four best teams in the game.

If their best players are healthy, they play. Every day.

The Orioles and Yankees fizzle out in the playoffs. The Dodgers have only won a WD is a short series and currently have 12 pitchers on the DL. Atlanta won their WS with 2 players who did not play every game that year as ther series MVPs. With potentially 22 more games in the playoffs maybe there is something to the load management 

[Riverbrian]

19 hours ago, weneedneshek said:

Do we have even one iron man?

Castro, Santana and Correa are our current versions. Miranda might be sliding into a 4th everyday guy.

The other 10 or 9 players on the roster get rest. 

[Riverbrian]

The Dodgers and Twins set up similarly. 

The Dodgers utilize 3 platoon sets which leaves 5 players for every day duty. The Twins utilize 4 platoon sets which takes the every day player number down to 3. 

There is a stark difference between the L.A. 5 and the Minnesota 3. 

Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, Teoscar and Pages

compared to

Correa, Castro and Santana. 

 

[rv78]

Every win is important, but it’s even more important to be healthy entering the playoffs.

Not if it takes every win to GET to the playoffs and/or it improves your seed in the playoffs. I've already seen Rocco throw enough games away by resting his best players to last a lifetime.

Take a player like Buxton, the only way he doesn't get hurt is if he doesn't play at all. How many injuries has he had that would have been prevented with more rest? Probably Zero. Pulling up lame with a sprained knee or busting your hand from a HBP have nothing to do with rest. Take almost any injury for that matter. How about Royce Lewis, would rest have prevented his injuries? Surely he wasn't "TIRED" from the long grind of the season when he strained his right quad on opening day?

If you need rest... to prevent injuries then you are a fool. What you need... is to be in better shape and play within yourself. Trying to do too much, or more than your body is accustomed to.... has more to do with injuries than not enough rest. 

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

The Orioles and Yankees fizzle out in the playoffs. The Dodgers have only won a WD is a short series and currently have 12 pitchers on the DL. Atlanta won their WS with 2 players who did not play every game that year as ther series MVPs. With potentially 22 more games in the playoffs maybe there is something to the load management 

Is this a serious post? Can't  be. The O's "fizzle out" in the postseason? They've made the postseason once since 2016. 4 times since 1998.

But ok, let's play this silly "postseason is too long" game.

Texas won the WS last year. Marcus Semien played 162 games in the regular season. Nate Lowe 161. Corey Seager 119 after missing 5 weeks to the IL in April/May. Adolis Garcia 148 with a 13 day IL stay. Catcher Josh Heim 131.

Their WS opponent? Christian Walker, 157 games. Corbin Carroll 155. Gurriel 145 with 2 injury stints.

It's almost like a team's best players should play. Virtually every day. Many do.

There's absolutely zero reason to think 3 days off in June will somehow make a player better in October.

 

 

 

  

[old nurse]

21 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Is this a serious post?

Texas won the WS last year. Marcus Semien played 162 games in the regular season. Nate Lowe 161. Corey Seager 119 after missing 5 weeks to the IL in April/May. Adolis Garcia 148 with a 13 day IL stay. Catcher Josh Heim 131.

Their WS opponent? Christian Walker, 157 games. Corbin Carroll 155. Gurriel 145 with 2 injury stints.

It's almost like a team's best players should play. Virtually every day.

And many do.

 

  

Many players do play every day. There is still nothing out there that says it has to be done that way. When your team has very little in the way of backups, your team has to have these players play everyday. When your team has players with holes in the game, you have to cover a bit.