No Doubt About It: Emmanuel Rodriguez Proving Naysayers Wrong

[Cody Christie]

Emmanuel Rodriguez is considered one of the Twins organization's best prospects. However, plenty of evaluators have doubted him in recent years. It’s time to prove them wrong.

Image courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

There is little doubt that Emmanuel Rodriguez is one of baseball’s best prospects. Entering the 2024 season, the three national prospects lists all included him in their top-100 prospects, and Twins Daily ranks him as the organization’s third-best prospect behind Walker Jenkins and Brooks Lee. Any prospect in the low minors is going to have detractors who point out a player’s flaws, but Rodriguez is doing his best to prove those naysayers wrong with a strong start to the 2024 campaign.  

Doubt 1: His high walk rate can’t continue in the high minors
Many view the 2019 season as Rodriguez’s breakout performance, even though a knee injury limited him to 47 games. As a teenager in the Florida State League, he posted a 28.6 BB%, translating to an eye-popping .492 OBP. His walk rate dropped to 20.2% last year while still getting on base 40% of the time. At Double-A, he has a career-high walk rate (30.1 BB%) and has reached base in over 50% of his plate appearances. Rodriguez's knowledge of the strike zone has improved, which has helped him develop into a walk drawing machine. 

Doubt 2: He can’t hit for power with his passivity at the plate
Tied to his walk rate is the thought that being passive in the batter’s box means a hitter is limited in their power potential. Current Twins second baseman Edouard Julien fits in the same category and has produced positive results at the big-league level over the last two seasons. Over the last two seasons, Rodriguez has a K% of around 29%, but he has combined that with a .686 SLG during the 2024 season. If Rodríguez can continue to become more aggressive early in counts to bypass some of the swing-and-miss in his game, he has a chance to be an even more dangerous hitter. 

Doubt 3: He will get injured again
The Twins need better luck with their top prospects dealing with injuries on the way to sustained success at the big-league level. A list of those injured prospects stretches back through the franchise's history, but in recent years, the names include Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Austin Martin, and Brooks Lee. Rodriguez has yet to play 100 games in any professional season, so one would hope he can surpass that benchmark in 2024. He missed time during the 2022 season due to a knee injury and an abdominal strain in 2023. Last week, he missed time after an awkward slide on the bases. There is no way to avoid injuries, so Rodriguez must find a way to stay on the field. 

Doubt 4: His bat-to-ball skills will slow his progress as he climbs the organizational ladder
Last season, Rodriguez saw his batting average drop to .240 in his first season of more than 50 games. He continued to find ways to get on base with his walk-drawing ability, but there can be some worry when a player isn’t making consistent contact. So far, in 2024, he has gone 15-for-51 (.294 BA), with 11 of his 15 hits being for extra bases. Rodriguez is extremely young for Double-A, as he is over three years younger than the average age of the competition and has yet to face a pitcher younger than himself. He continues to make strides with his offensive approach, which is a scary proposition for other teams in the Texas League. 

Rodriguez has more to prove before he makes his big-league debut, but seeing him find early success at Double-A is encouraging. If he continues on this development path, he will be in the conversation as one of baseball’s top-10 prospects entering next season. 

What doubt are you most worried about? Will Rodriguez make his big-league debut in 2024? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.  

 

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[tony&rodney]

Last year I watched a ton of Em-Rod's at bats and commented in the winter that there was plenty of room for growth, primarily in the area of consistent focus from plate appearance to plate appearance and from game to game. I had him as the Twins best prospect.

This season, Emmanuel has started off with a more consistent approach. The number of uncontrolled swings is down as are the occasions when he just gives away the at bats. Baseball is a slog across six months of games. The youngster has a ways to go but right now he is looking really good. Having watched most of the games via milb.com, I cannot attest to the small details available to someone watching the games from the dugout or front row. I can state that Em-Rod has been the most impressive baseball player in AA to this point in the season that I have watched.

There is a ton to love in his game. The guy has style, plays great defense with an arm that shuts down players from taking the extra base, he is aggressive on the bases, and already draws outsized respect from pitchers when he steps into the batter's box. If Emmanuel maintains his focus and stays healthy, he should be in AAA by July at the latest. Consistency and endurance are difficult in baseball and necessary for success. Another month (maybe two) of the current performance would force the Twins to move Rodriguez up a level to provide another measure of the young man's promise.

[nicksaviking]

Real excited. He's my #2 prospect after Jenkins due to his high ceiling.

His progression and stats look almost identical to last year's #1 prospect and ROY Gunnar Henderson, even down to the age 21 batting average spike upon moving to AA. It would be great to see a late season MLB promotion too.

 

[LambchoP]

Excited to see more of E-Rod. I'd say if he keeps playing well move him to AAA around mid season. If that goes well, give him a chance to make the big league club out of spring training 2025. Could he be the Kepler replacement we're going to need next year?

[Doctor Gast]

It's hard not to see Emma's potential. He has proven all his neighsayers wrong by mashing at AA, He is a bright spot in Wind Surge's struggling season. He shall be soon MLB ready & start impacting our team. Many talk about trading him, I wouldn't trade him unless we get a great SP for him nothing less.

[Parfigliano]

Should he make it to MLB he can fill a hole in the lineup that needs filling as a crazy high OBP guy.  Cant have enough of those guys if your philosophy is to ride or die on multi-run HRs.

[FlyingFinn]

Just dreaming of Julien and E-Rod at the top of the lineup in 2025. If you don't throw strikes, you will walk two guys with Lewis, Correa etc. coming up, and the pitcher being pretty frazzled, as well as the pitch count climbing. Can't just throw it down the middle either as that's what they are waiting for and it ends up over the fence.

[DJL44]

You are linked to the wrong Emmanuel Rodriguez at Baseball Reference.

[DJL44]

He's arguably the best player in the Texas League. No problem with platoon splits, he hits everyone. He needs better competition soon. He also probably needs to play more often in RF as I don't see them moving Buxton.

[Twinsrtheworst]

Never doubted him from the first time I met him and watched him play.  He stood out then on the field and will stand out again at the MLB level.  Plus an awsome human being. Emma is dynamite.

[bean5302]

The question on Rodriguez was not whether or he could hit at AA, it's whether he can produce at MLB. That depends on whether the BB% turns into hits or Ks because it sure as heck isn't going to stay north of 20% in the big show.

Will he turn into .200/.275/.375 with a 10% BB and 50% K rate? Or will he turn into .275/.400/.500 with a 15% BB and 30% K rate? To know that, he needs a promotion to AAA sooner than I anticipated.

[2wins87]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The question on Rodriguez was not whether or he could hit at AA, it's whether he can produce at MLB. That depends on whether the BB% turns into hits or Ks because it sure as heck isn't going to stay north of 20% in the big show.

Will he turn into .200/.275/.375 with a 10% BB and 50% K rate? Or will he turn into .275/.400/.500 with a 15% BB and 30% K rate? To know that, he needs a promotion to AAA sooner than I anticipated.

I end up saying this in every Emma thread, but the walk rate in AAA is higher than in AA due to the automatic zone in AAA.  IMO a promotion to AAA kind of just reinforces his passive approach.  I'm not saying he couldn't benefit from some time there, but I'm not sure the quality of pitching is that much higher, so I actually think letting him see more of the pitchers in AA could be the right move developmentally for now.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

I actually think letting him see more of the pitchers in AA could be the right move developmentally for now.

The Texas League isn't that big and it's divided further to keep travel at a minimum. He starts repeating teams in the middle of May. If you want him to see more pitchers he'll have to go to AAA by mid-June.

[JD-TWINS]

Keep progressing - stay healthy!

Will check back in July.

[1985Fan]

Can’t assume his current numbers translate from MiLB to MLB. Shouldn’t plug him into the Twins lineup with <700 MiLB AB’s! Maybe another full season and at least 500 AAA AB’s of excellent results. 
Player development isn’t a linear process. Look no further than Larnach, Julien, and Miranda. Looks like Larnach is finally making adjustments to MLB pitching. Hope this doesn’t jinx his progress. 

[Linus]

I guess I didn’t realize there were naysayers on ERod. Vast majority of what I read is very positive. 

[bean5302]

19 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

I end up saying this in every Emma thread, but the walk rate in AAA is higher than in AA due to the automatic zone in AAA.  IMO a promotion to AAA kind of just reinforces his passive approach.  I'm not saying he couldn't benefit from some time there, but I'm not sure the quality of pitching is that much higher, so I actually think letting him see more of the pitchers in AA could be the right move developmentally for now.

The "stuff" talent level of pitchers at AAA is often lower than AA. 
The control and polish of most pitchers at AAA is much higher than AA.

AAA is a significantly harder level than AA for pitchers and hitters. The biggest jump in MiLB is from A+ to AA in my opinion, with AA to AAA being the next hardest step up.

Walk rates vary between AA and AAA for more reasons than just the robo ump, including the fact you have a lot of AAAA hitters with MLB experience drawing walks at AAA, and not all batters see an increase in walk rates. Brooks Lee, for example, saw his walk rate drop from 10.3% in AA to 8.9% in AAA last year. In addition, you're narrowing the field quite a bit as not all players reach AAA, and the pitchers who do spend time at AAA often need to work on their control and polish as a final step before MLB. Just blaming robo umps (which is tantamount to saying most umpires call a smaller strike zone than actual) doesn't seem realistic to me. Especially given how robo umps have only existed in all AAA for 2023.

Rodriguez has very little left to prove at AA at this point with 528 plate appearances at the level and climbing all while owning a wRC+ of 145-205. 

[tony&rodney]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Rodriguez has very little left to prove at AA at this point with 528 plate appearances at the level and climbing all while owning a wRC+ of 145-205. 

I'm confused by this line. I believe Em-Rod has 73 PA in AA this year. This is his first year at AA. Simple mistake or are you referencing something else?

A few other Emmanuel Rodriguez points: Health is the biggest gift for an athlete. Currently, Emmanuel is out with a hand injury of unknown seriousness (day to day). With good health and continued production it is doubtful that Rodriguez stays longer than mid June in AA. While the pitchers in the Texas League have equal velocity and great stuff, there is a big difference in the command and control at AAA. Em-Rod needs to see some stronger pitching. How Rodriguez progresses in his focus and consistency in addition to how he manages versus better off speed pitches should determine whether he is near MLB ready. Emmanuel has some potential unseen by previous Twins prospects. An OBP of .500, extra base pop, hitting for a decent average, stolen base potential, a big arm and the ability to play good defense in centerfield provide quite an impressive list of talents. I can't think of a comparable Twins prospect in recent times. Of course, every young phenom needs to produce when their opportunity arrives or get sent back to the minor leagues for additional experience (see Jackson Holliday). Hopefully the Twins are paying close attention every single thing that Emmanuel Rodriguez is doing on a baseball field. He may be ready to play in The Show sooner than projected.

Someone mentioned that they were unaware of naysayers concerning Em-Rod. I can only say that he was suggested in a couple of dozen trades last winter even as pretty much everyone rebuffed any suggested trades of Brooks Lee and the mere mention of thinking about what Royce Lewis could return was discouraged. I'm not suggesting anything, merely noting that there was a fair amount of skepticism concerning Rodriguez last offseason.

[nova_twins]

My concern with Emma is that only big league pitchers can really challenge him, so it will require significant adjustments . . . But on the flip side, he might already be better than Austin Martin (as an OF) and Margot for that matter. OF defense is extra important with a flyball staff.

[jkcarew]

Regarding doubt number 3…back in the lineup today!

Thankfully.

[twinstalker]

Really the only naysaying thing about him has been his too-high K rate.  I didn't see that in the four bullet points.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Me! It was me. Guilty.

This past off season I asked if people were ignoring his .240 batting average from last year.  I do not find a BA of .240 in A+ league having me getting anxious to grease his wheels to be fast tracked to MLB.

He's currently hitting .281. Very different. It's still a SSS, but my skepticism is waning. 

[wabene]

Way to fess up you old goat!