Brewers 3, Twins 2: Rally Runs Short for Minnesota

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

Well, except for the one home run they hit.

Thank you, I lost track of that one. 

[JD-TWINS]

13 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I certainly love seeing Manny Margot up instead of Wallner in the 9th.

LEAVE THE BETTER HITTERS IN THE GAME INSTEAD OF PHing IN THE MIDDLE INNINGS.

FYI - Wallner has 5 K’s in 7 AB’s through 4 games……….won’t get into Spring numbers. Margot is NOT a favorite of mine!! However, when he initially pinch hit he got on base. Can’t have it both ways…………I get the frustration.

[TwinsDr2021]

On a positive note, a starter only went 4 innings, and only two relief pitchers were needed, that is not something we have seen much here the last few years.

On a bad note they have K'd 38 times and only have 24 hits which wouldn't be so bad but they only have 1 homer.

[JD-TWINS]

12 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

They've always used the extra rest at the beginning of the year 

I don’t think there is any distinction between 4 & 5 other than their first start. With innings being an issue there’s no reason to skip a guy to then have the other 4 throw sooner in the big picture. Seems any extra time between starts will be taken advantage of every time.

[JD-TWINS]

13 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Could Varland have gone further?  I don't know - just asking.

Do we have to have Lewis to get this lineup going?  If so we are in bad shape. 

Lewis is a huge hole…….Wallner - Jeffers and a couple others aren’t going to hit ZERO so there is hope over a bigger sampling size.

I thought Varland had good stuff! Velocity was good - change up looked good - cutter & slider had different speeds with movement. However, his command was not there. Actually, he didn’t miss spots that bad & could have gotten 2-3 calls that would have changed things. Can’t go 3-2 to guys routinely - his high fastball is a weapon but it has to hit the zone. Taking him out after 89 pitches was best physically early in the year and definitely best mentally for him.

[Karbo]

40 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Correa, Buxton, Kepler, Santana and Castro are going to play close enough to every day.

Our season will depend primarily on those 5 players or whoever replaces them with every day roles during times of injury due to roster size limitations. 

13 positions players - 2 are a catcher rotation - 6 players are part of rigid platoon combos. That leaves 5 players who play nearly every day. 

Rocco was rigid with his execution last year and he has started 2024 with the same rigid sensibilities. 

Julien, Wallner and Kirilloff not only won't start against left handers but they will be yanked mid game when left handers like Milner hit the stage.

Julien, Wallner and Kirilloff won't be around in the ninth to get a needed clutch hit against a right handed closer because they were lifted early. 

When the ninth comes it will be Margot in the box instead of Wallner to face Abner. 

 

 

I agree that is the way it is, but I'm thinking its the wrong way. Julian needs to see the lefties. Wallner seems lost right now so I can see that move. I was frustrated that Martin didn't attempt a steal. Milwaukee has had a tough time throwing out base stealers so far so why not try? Probably wouldn't have had a big change but why not try? DP instead so hindsight and all that but again, why not try?

[Karbo]

40 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Correa, Buxton, Kepler, Santana and Castro are going to play close enough to every day.

Our season will depend primarily on those 5 players or whoever replaces them with every day roles during times of injury due to roster size limitations. 

13 positions players - 2 are a catcher rotation - 6 players are part of rigid platoon combos. That leaves 5 players who play nearly every day. 

Rocco was rigid with his execution last year and he has started 2024 with the same rigid sensibilities. 

Julien, Wallner and Kirilloff not only won't start against left handers but they will be yanked mid game when left handers like Milner hit the stage.

Julien, Wallner and Kirilloff won't be around in the ninth to get a needed clutch hit against a right handed closer because they were lifted early. 

When the ninth comes it will be Margot in the box instead of Wallner to face Abner. 

 

 

I agree that is the way it is, but I'm thinking its the wrong way. Julian needs to see the lefties. Wallner seems lost right now so I can see that move. I was frustrated that Martin didn't attempt a steal. Milwaukee has had a tough time throwing out base stealers so far so why not try? Probably wouldn't have had a big change but why not try? DP instead so hindsight and all that but again, why not try?

[JD-TWINS]

14 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

On a positive note, a starter only went 4 innings, and only two relief pitchers were needed, that is not something we have seen much here the last few years.

On a bad note they have K'd 38 times and only have 24 hits which wouldn't be so bad but they only have 1 homer.

The Pen has thrown 15 2/3 according to my memory & they’ve given up runs in one of 4 games. 3 runs over 6 2/3 on Sunday.

ERA 1.72 for the group…….Ober’s performance is the only discouraging one from the Staff so far. Pretty good overall performance.

Gotta score to win.

A comparison, to keep hopeful - Bryce Harper was 0-11 going into last night after 3 games. He went 3-4 with 3 HR in game 4. There’s reason to stay upbeat.

[wabene]

From the beating a dead horse dept, Justin Morneau talks way too much. It is not getting better, so the Twins brass must not agree with me. Every pitch of every plate appearance does not need to be analyzed. I. Can't. Take. It.

[TwinsDr2021]

3 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

The Pen has thrown 15 2/3 according to my memory & they’ve given up runs in one of 4 games. 3 runs over 6 2/3 on Sunday.

ERA 1.72 for the group…….Ober’s performance is the only discouraging one from the Staff so far. Pretty good overall performance.

Gotta score to win.

A comparison, to keep hopeful - Bryce Harper was 0-11 going into last night after 3 games. He went 3-4 with 3 HR in game 4. There’s reason to stay upbeat.

I should have clarified, the positive was only using two relief pitchers for the rest of the game after a short start and them doing great, and I will say again that is something we haven't seen in MN lately. There have been games in the past that they would have used 4 or 5 guys to finish out that game.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

This was another Rocco and Popkins special. 

Rocco overthinking things and the line-up totally clueless with no plan of attack. 

[stringer bell]

27 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Lewis is a huge hole…….Wallner - Jeffers and a couple others aren’t going to hit ZERO so there is hope over a bigger sampling size.

I thought Varland had good stuff! Velocity was good - change up looked good - cutter & slider had different speeds with movement. However, his command was not there. Actually, he didn’t miss spots that bad & could have gotten 2-3 calls that would have changed things. Can’t go 3-2 to guys routinely - his high fastball is a weapon but it has to hit the zone. Taking him out after 89 pitches was best physically early in the year and definitely best mentally for him.

If it is a hitter's count, they won't chase as readily. Varland's stuff is good enough, but not good enough to be 2-0, 3-1 and 3-2 all the time. It is the same for all but the most dominant pitchers, throw strikes and make them swing at your pitches. 

[JD-TWINS]

5 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

If it is a hitter's count, they won't chase as readily. Varland's stuff is good enough, but not good enough to be 2-0, 3-1 and 3-2 all the time. It is the same for all but the most dominant pitchers, throw strikes and make them swing at your pitches. 

Seemed to me he wasn’t being handled properly  - he’s gotta do it, ultimately - but he was actually ahead a lot of the time and then nibbled his way into 3-2 counts…….time after time. 

Need to determine an out pitch or a pitch to weak contact offering. Change-up? Cutter in to lefties? Fastball up or away? There didn’t seem to be command with strikes. Just being an athlete & “throwing”. The Yelich at bat was typical outcome of going 3-2 way too often…………can’t go Middle-Middle to anyone, particularly the #3 hitter. He hit it about 425 straight away.

[Major League Ready]

13 hours ago, Aggies7 said:

We’ve lost 84 home runs from last year’s team that finished 1st in the AL with 233. These are guys not on the current roster or injured. Santana and Margot had 15 between them in 23. I would expect a decline this year in HRs, just hope it isn’t too pronounced 

MAT / Gallo, and Polanco had 56 HRs.  Who accounted for the other 28?  We also lost 360 SOs between those three.

Are you complaining about losing Gallo?

[MABB1959]

The record is okay but they did play KC.   More disturbing is the Twins are dead last in the MLB for hits and HR's.

[stringer bell]

13 hours ago, Aggies7 said:

We’ve lost 84 home runs from last year’s team that finished 1st in the AL with 233. These are guys not on the current roster or injured. Santana and Margot had 15 between them in 23. I would expect a decline this year in HRs, just hope it isn’t too pronounced 

Santana hit 23 homers by himself last year, Margot only hit four. 

[Aggies7]

37 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

MAT / Gallo, and Polanco had 56 HRs.  Who accounted for the other 28?  We also lost 360 SOs between those three.

Are you complaining about losing Gallo?

Lewis 15, Larnach 8, solano 5

Not complaining, just stating the fact that currently, there are a whole lot of home runs that aren’t on the roster. So thinking it will “come around” is bit optimistic. The twins will have to score in other ways this year, clearly they aren’t going to lead the league in home runs, barring some crazy unforeseen things happening

[Aggies7]

19 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Santana hit 23 homers by himself last year, Margot only hit four. 

You are correct. The point still stands, though. 

[Major League Ready]

2 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

Lewis 15, Larnach 8, solano 5

Not complaining, just stating the fact that currently, there are a whole lot of home runs that aren’t currently on the roster. So thinking it will “come around” is bit optimistic. The twins will have to score in other ways this year, clearly they aren’t going to lead the league in home runs, barring some crazy unforeseen things happening

I just don't find this reasonable logic.  Lewis is not lost for the year.  He is out for a month.  Solano is far from a HR hitter and Larnach was a modestly productive player.  Whoever takes his ABs is likely to be more productive.  That's why he is in AAA and he is not lost.  He can be brought up if his performance dictates.   MAT was a below average offensive player and does anyone want Gallo back.  This is just silly to paint these players as major losses.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

I agree that is the way it is, but I'm thinking its the wrong way. Julian needs to see the lefties. Wallner seems lost right now so I can see that move. I was frustrated that Martin didn't attempt a steal. Milwaukee has had a tough time throwing out base stealers so far so why not try? Probably wouldn't have had a big change but why not try? DP instead so hindsight and all that but again, why not try?

The question to me is this:

Would you rather have Wallner face a lefty in 7th or Margot face a righty in the 9th. 

Based on usage last year and so far this year... It's going to be Margot facing a righty in the 9th. 

I saw Wallner hit a ball over the batters eye in Fort Myers against a pretty good lefty in AJ Minter in spring training. 

I vote for Wallner facing a right handed closer in the 9th when you are down a run. Wallner is perhaps our biggest home run threat. 

But... It's going to be how it's going to be. 

[Aggies7]

4 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I just don't find this reasonable logic.  Lewis is not lost for the year.  He is out for a month.  Solano is far from a HR hitter and Larnach was a modestly productive player.  Whoever takes his ABs is likely to be more productive.  That's why he is in AAA and he is not lost.  He can be brought up if his performance dictates.   MAT was a below average offensive player and does anyone want Gallo back.  This is just silly to paint these players as major losses.

Lewis could be out for 2 months. 1/3 of the season. 
 

“The Twins have said Lewis will miss at least a month and now The Athletic's Aaron Gleeman is saying that if Lewis misses two months it "would likely be viewed as a positive outcome" and that the Twins "need to be prepared to play most or perhaps even all of the first half" without him.”

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Aggies7 said:

Lewis could be out for 2 months. 1/3 of the season. 
 

“The Twins have said Lewis will miss at least a month and now The Athletic's Aaron Gleeman is saying that if Lewis misses two months it "would likely be viewed as a positive outcome" and that the Twins "need to be prepared to play most or perhaps even all of the first half" without him.”

This does not change the fact that you presented this in a completely overblown way when you included Gallo, Salano, and Larnach.  MAT is a stretch as well given he had a career year and was still below league average offensively.  BTW, Lewis only played less than 40% of last season so at this point they lost nothing compared to last year.

[Hubie29]

Looks like Lewis is on track to be a 15 year vet (if he can still walk in 10 years), with 500 career AB's.  Not much of an "asset".  Time to find a trade partner when he is completely?? healthy.  Looks like a career chronic IL guy. 

[Aggies7]

2 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

This does not change the fact that you presented this in a completely overblown way when you included Gallo, Salano, and Larnach.  MAT is a stretch as well given he had a career year and was still below league average offensively.  BTW, he only played less than 40% of last season so at this point they lost nothing compared to last year.

So you think this twins roster will have nearly as many home runs as they had last year (233)?

I think we should bet on it 

[D.C Twins]

Spenser Steer would look pretty good in our line up right about now.....

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Thank you, I lost track of that one. 

So did our outfielders 

[USAFChief]

6 hours ago, wabene said:

They clearly have Paddack in the 5th slot only to facilitate having him miss starts to limit his innings. 

How does being in the 5th spot "facilitate" missing starts?

Past the first week or so, the 5th spot in the rotation comes around as often as any other and is no more or less likely to come with an extra day of rest. 

And in any case, the Twins don't typically skip starts even when able.

 

[bean5302]

15 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Guarantee they won't finish this road trip. 500. 

Guar-own-tee!

5 game road trip. I believe you're 100% correct. The Twins will not finish with 2-1/2 wins.

[stringer bell]

40 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

You are correct. The point still stands, though. 

From what I can see, the players on the '23 Twins hit 68 homers in 1668 plate appearances (4.01%), The team homered at a rate of 3.75%, a very negligible difference. Santana, who is so far a regular, homered at a 3.7% clip last year, while Margot was well below with 1.2%. If the Twins give the guys with high home run frequency more plate appearances (Julien, Wallner, Buxton, Lewis), they may equal or beat their homer total this year, if more PAs go to Martin and Margot, they probably won't.

[bean5302]

The Twins still have a lineup constructed with a lot of strikeout prone hitters. It's less problematic than last year, but it's till a high K unit. My hypothesis is lineups prone to high strike outs/high home runs with league average or better OPS+/wRC+ type production often have boom or bust results in games. Last year, it feels like the Twins were (totally random numbers following) 0-1-2-1-3-0-2-13-1-3-5-0-3-2-11 for runs scored out of the gate. The result was 4 runs per game average, but only 3 games where they actually scored 4+ runs and gave themselves a good chance to win. The elite rotation results we had got us a lot of wins.

In regard to Varland's start, it wasn't great. 4 innings 6 hits, 2 walks. That's a 2.00 WHIP, 6.87 FIP and 4.39 xFIP, though he generated quite a bit of poor contact, he was hit hard frequently enough the BABIP wasn't crazy high.