Which Former Twins Infielder is a Perfect Comp for Top Prospect Brooks Lee?

[Cody Christie]

Fans often develop unreasonable expectations regarding a team’s top prospects. Young players rarely develop into perennial All-Stars. So, is one former Twins infielder a reasonable comp for top prospect Brooks Lee?

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

Twins fans have followed Brooks Lee closely since the team drafted him with the eighth overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft. At the time, he was considered the best college hitter in his draft class, and the Twins have seen that play out throughout his professional career. In 156 minor-league games, he has hit .281/.355/.459, with 45 doubles, three triples, and 20 home runs. National prospect lists have included him in their top 100 prospect lists over the last two seasons, peaking at number 18 on MLB.com’s list for 2024. Lee is unquestionably among baseball’s best prospects, so what are reasonable expectations for his Twins tenure?

Every fan base believes their team’s top prospects will develop into the next superstar, but this rarely happens, because there are no guarantees with prospect development. Miguel Sanó was considered one of baseball’s best prospects before making his debut, and many fans would classify his career as a disappointment (even with a career 116 OPS+). Aaron Hicks peaked at 19th on Baseball America’s top 100 before posting an 81 OPS+ in a Twins uniform. Other players, like Byron Buxton and Alex Kirilloff, ranked highly but have dealt with injuries. For every successful career, there are players like Sanó and Hicks, who underachieve or even never make the big leagues.

Jorge Polanco was never considered the Twins' top overall prospect, but he was ranked as a top-100 prospect entering the 2016 season by multiple national outlets. He ended up playing parts of 10 seasons in a Twins uniform, while hitting .269/.334/.446 with a 111 OPS+. He started the 2019 All-Star Game at shortstop and finished in the top 13 for the AL MVP. Since 2016, his 15.1 rWAR ranks third on the team behind Max Kepler and Buxton. It’s easy to look at Polanco’s career and undervalue what he brought to the Twins over the last decade.

Lee is a higher-ranking national prospect than Polanco was in the minors, but Twins fans should be satisfied if Lee compiles career numbers similar to the former Twins second baseman. Like Polanco, Lee is climbing the minor-league ranks as a switch-hitting shortstop. The Twins have Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis on the left side of the infield, so Lee will start seeing more time at second base. Those traits are only the beginning of the similarities between these two players. 

Polanco has posted solid numbers from both sides of the plate throughout his career, with his OPS being 74 points higher as a lefty. Lee makes consistent contact from both sides of the plate and his .860 OPS was 253 points higher than the one he posted versus right-handed pitching. Last season, both players walked in around 10% of their plate appearances, while Lee’s strikeout rate was 9% lower than Polanco's. Evaluators commend Lee and Polanco on their baseball IQ, one reason Polanco could stick at shortstop for the beginning of his big-league career. As Lee begins his MLB career, his similarities with Polanco will likely start to stand out even more. 

The Twins hope Lee can establish himself as an above-average big-league player in the coming years. Some believe he can be a perennial All-Star, with the potential to win an MVP. Those accolades are still possible, but Lee’s profile might be closer to what Polanco accomplished with the Twins. Minnesota’s front office would love for Lee to develop into a consistent top-of-the-order hitter for the next decade. However, some fans would likely be disappointed with that result, since Lee has been highly ranked as a prospect. 

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What should be the expectations for Lee? Is Polanco a reasonable comp? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Jocko87]

Prospects like Lee and Walker rarely have in history comps in most organizations.  Sure, you can find someone for the Yankees but the Twins don't have a great prospect history.  It doesn't help that the best prospect was a catcher, Lewis and Buxton are different player types.

Lee and Walker are different and comps around the league make more sense.  I've got Astros comps for both, Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker.  The more I look, the more similar they are.  Sign me up.

[stringer bell]

Off the top of my head, Roy Smalley works as a comp. Defensively stretched a bit at short, but compensate for lack of foot speed by having a strong arm and good baseball IQ. Switch hitter with good bat-to-ball skills. 

[chpettit19]

Lee becoming Polanco would be a very nice result. I think Zach Neto has something to say about Lee having been the best college hitter so far to come out of that draft, though. Lee doesn't look like a star to me, but he does look like a heck of a baseball player who can make an all star team in his career year while putting up very nice numbers every year and being a vital part of a really good lineup. That's Jorge Polanco. He looks like he's just about ready and I'm excited to see what he can do when he gets to the big show.

[Brett]

I’m just thankful you didn’t say his comp was Nick Punto.

[bean5302]

I suppose Polanco isn't a terrible comp. Lee can't run like Polanco can, but Lee's fundamentals in fielding are better to make up for it. Polanco was a solid player when he wasn't hurt. Certainly not elite, but solid.

[Beast]

Brooks is a weird prospect.  Prospects ranked that highly are usually have some ridiculous physical tool that give them some sort of superstar projectibility. There seems to be consensus that he doesn’t have the huge upside, but more of a high floor.

He may be a good or great player.  But, kind of a boring prospect.

[DJL44]

52 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Off the top of my head, Roy Smalley works as a comp. Defensively stretched a bit at short, but compensate for lack of foot speed by having a strong arm and good baseball IQ. Switch hitter with good bat-to-ball skills. 

That is an excellent comp.

[Craig Arko]

56 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Off the top of my head, Roy Smalley works as a comp. Defensively stretched a bit at short, but compensate for lack of foot speed by having a strong arm and good baseball IQ. Switch hitter with good bat-to-ball skills. 

That was my first thought, too.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Gary Gaetti would be mine. Drafted #11 by the Twins in 1979 also out of college. Gary played most all of his games at 3B but he was also capable of filling in at SS. That would be a high bar for Brooks.

Brooks maybe a better pure hitter than Gary was. Time will tell but I'd take this as a repeat any day.

[stringer bell]

11 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Gary Gaetti would be mine. Drafted #11 by the Twins in 1979 also out of college. Gary played most all of his games at 3B but he was also capable of filling in at SS. That would be a high bar for Brooks.

Brooks maybe a better pure hitter than Gary was. Time will tell but I'd take this as a repeat any day.

I think Gaetti was more of a power guy than Lee will be. Gaetti only played 37 innings at shortstop in his career, so I don't think of him as more than an emergency guy there.

[sweetmusicviola16]

7 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I think Gaetti was more of a power guy than Lee will be. Gaetti only played 37 innings at shortstop in his career, so I don't think of him as more than an emergency guy there.

The jury is still out on whether Lee will stick at SS as well. I agree that Gary was more of a power hitter than Lee will become, but the game is more of a power game now than it was then. One would think that Lee will hit for higher average too. But who knows? I would be quite happy with a 42 WAR career from Lee. Whether at 3B, SS or 2B.

[Doctor Gast]

Polanco was a rock star when he started '19. He was the favorite for MVP & maybe would have won it if he had the ankles to play SS. If he had started at 2B like Lee, his stats would have been much better. IMO the comps are similar except Lee can play 3B much better.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Gaetti took 5 seasons and nearly 2400 PA before he generated an OPS+ of 100 or better.

I don't expect Lee to have the power Gaetti had, but I expect above average hitting to occur earlier in his career. 

That's largely why I'm happy to have Lee start the season in AAA. I want him to make a positive impact when he hits the big leagues. 

[DocBauer]

I think the Smalley com is very interesting, and probably pretty close.

While Lee doesn't have as much foot speed as Polanco, he's got the stronger arm. But hitting wise, I can see an easy comp between the two. And I'd be happy if Lee put up the same numbers as Polanco, just more OF THEM by simply being  healthier. But then again, to be fair, a healthier Polanco probably puts up higher career numbers than he has to this point. So yeah, sign me up for production similar to either exaple.

[ashbury]

Unless one thinks Lee's arm will be a problem in the infield, Polanco doesn't particularly jump out to me as a comp.

[jorgenswest]

Career path from college to majors in second full season it might be Knoblauch or Walker. Walker played 2B after his terrible shoulder injury as an amateur. The hit tool might be similar particularly the strength against right handed pitchers. Knoblauch made it out of spring training in his second full season as a non roster player. He also comes from a baseball family like Lee.

[Mydaughterhastwins]

Castino or Koskie.  Minus the career shortening injuries please!!

[jkcarew]

9 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Off the top of my head, Roy Smalley works as a comp. Defensively stretched a bit at short, but compensate for lack of foot speed by having a strong arm and good baseball IQ. Switch hitter with good bat-to-ball skills. 

Nailed it. Maybe a bit more upside than Smalley…but Smalley was a very highly regarded prospect, as well. I’d be good with that outcome.

[Dlee]

maybe not a Predroia type but close enough I hope.  Or that other shorter skinny guy that lit it up in post season, the name isn't rattling in the head; he produced when it counted.  Even if Lee is average and the team mojo melds some average players are the chrome on a playoff run.

[stringer bell]

More reasons I think Smalley is an apt comparison: 1) First round draft pick out of college (same as Lee). 2) Switch hitter. 3) Baseball family—Dad was a shortstop for almost a decade and his uncle was Gene Mauch.
 

Smalley made his MLB debut one year after signing. 

[cmoss84]

Probably Al Newman. 🧐

[twinstalker]

Smalley is the obvious comp.  Switch-hitting college shortstop.  Neither project(s/ed) as a star but might make an all-star game or two as an average starter having a good year.  That's a pretty good player.  Lee might have a hitting advantage if he plays primarily off short.

[Karbo]

I don't really like to compare youngsters to established players until they have a few years in. Lee will probably be a very good player. I expect him to be one of the top 2nd baseman in the league once he gets some reps in.

So that has to lead me too Julien. He's a very good player also. So I would guess he's going to have to learn a new position. Most "experts" think his home will be 1st base or DH. I sure hope he can get some time and reps at 1st because I hate to see a youngster start a career at DH. 

A future infield of Lewis, Correa, Lee, and Julian looks pretty good to me, at least offensively. All under team control for a few more years.

[Fezig]

17 hours ago, DJL44 said:

That is an excellent comp.

 

11 hours ago, Mydaughterhastwins said:

Castino or Koskie.  Minus the career shortening injuries please!!

I immediately thought the same thing with Castino. 

[old nurse]

What Brooks Lee will be is so up for debate. A less than stellar AAA part season is to blame. Some ranking systems have dropped him in ranking. Others have not. In 2016 a player got his fall cup of coffee, likely a September call up. Did not bat his jr high weight, Dropped in rank. 6 years later is signing a 300+ contract. Matt Olson was not even in some of the rankings and has had multiple All Star/VP consideration seasons They are the outliers. Generally with hitter when they start dropping in ranking they end up a complementary player MLB.Com has not dropped Lee’s ranking. They are generally the ranking quoted when discussing prospect ranking. 

Lee walks a fair amount, does not have a high strikeout rate, and could be a close to .300 hitter. He could be like that 1B they had a few years ago, or the one a few years before that. That would be a Joe and a Gene

[mikelink45]

Looking at second basemen in Twins history I would love to see Rod Carew, but Chuck Knoblauch put together the kind of season I could see Lee giving us. Brian Dozier would be another good comp.  I am hoping for more than Polanco.  Other than Arraez, those are the only 2B I would want Lee to  match.

Wilfong, Randall, Casilla, Allen, Lombardozzi, Castillo, and Teufel are good for trivia, but let's hope for a lot more from Lee. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

4 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Looking at second basemen in Twins history I would love to see Rod Carew, but Chuck Knoblauch put together the kind of season I could see Lee giving us. Brian Dozier would be another good comp.  I am hoping for more than Polanco.  Other than Arraez, those are the only 2B I would want Lee to  match.

Wilfong, Randall, Casilla, Allen, Lombardozzi, Castillo, and Teufel are good for trivia, but let's hope for a lot more from Lee. 

Knoblauch is a great comp. I had forgotten Chuck. I'm guessing more power from Lee. There would be nothing wrong with Lee becoming a 45 WAR player imo.

[bean5302]

Knoblauch has nothing in common with Lee.

Knoblauch wasn't a switch hitter, he walked about 50% more than he struck out, he had elite speed and he was an elite fielder. Chuck earned his value with his glove early on, and after he probably started juicing, with his bat and glove at his peak.

Brooks Lee doesn't profile as any of those things, and especially hopefully not the juicing part.