Looking back on the Graterol trade

[Squirrel]

At the time I thought it was a good, and fair trade. But I wonder … did we get the better end of it? We got a solid starting pitcher in Maeda and I think we will have a very good catcher in Camargo. I think some were disappointed in losing Graterol at the time, but I think it has worked out well for us in the end, even if we had some lean years in the reliever department.

[Riverbrian]

Unless Camargo becomes decent value. We lost the deal. But... not as bad as the Red Sox lost in the deal.

I have no complaint from what we received in Kenta Maeda. Kenta pitched very well for us. Maeda's time with us is done while Brusdar and the Dodgers still have 3 years to go.

Starting pitching is more valuable than relief pitching... however... Brusdar has become one of the top relievers in baseball. 

I'm willing to say Brusdar for Kenta straight up... just might be a draw. 

It's the rest of the deal where we lost. 

Luke Raley and Clayton Beeter.

Beeter was who the Dodgers selected with the competitive balance pick we traded in the deal. He just might open the year in the Yankees rotation this season. The Dodgers traded him for Joey Gallo so the competitive balance pick part was squandered but no matter what the Dodgers did... that was a draft pick that was not made by the Twins. 

and then we get to Luke Raley. 

What have the Twins given up in Luke Raley? Did the Twins know what they had in Luke Raley? Did the Dodgers know what they had in Luke Raley? 

At the time of the trade... he was a 25 year old .310 hitter with a .878 OPS in AAA. Decision time was coming up on Luke Raley. We keep trying to make Larnach type hitters fly right while Raley and Wade type guys fall away. 

I'll say... We lost the trade until Camargo can make up the difference of Raley and Beeter. 

But... we didn't lose it as bad as the Red Sox did. Oh Boy... did they lose that trade. 

[Squirrel]

Eeeek, totally forgot Luke Raley.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Unless Camargo becomes decent value. We lost the deal. But... not as bad as the Red Sox lost in the deal.

I have no complaint from what we received in Kenta Maeda. Kenta pitched very well for us. Maeda's time with us is done while Brusdar and the Dodgers still have 3 years to go.

Starting pitching is more valuable than relief pitching... however... Brusdar has become one of the top relievers in baseball. 

I'm willing to say Brusdar for Kenta straight up... just might be a draw. 

It's the rest of the deal where we lost. 

Luke Raley and Clayton Beeter.

Beeter was who the Dodgers selected with the competitive balance pick we traded in the deal. He just might open the year in the Yankees rotation this season. The Dodgers traded him for Joey Gallo so the competitive balance pick part was squandered but no matter what the Dodgers did... that was a draft pick that was not made by the Twins. 

and then we get to Luke Raley. 

What have the Twins given up in Luke Raley? Did the Twins know what they had in Luke Raley? Did the Dodgers know what they had in Luke Raley? 

At the time of the trade... he was a 25 year old .310 hitter with a .878 OPS in AAA. Decision time was coming up on Luke Raley. We keep trying to make Larnach type hitters fly right while Raley and Wade type guys fall away. 

I'll say... We lost the trade until Camargo can make up the difference of Raley and Beeter. 

But... we didn't lose it as bad as the Red Sox did. Oh Boy... did they lose that trade. 

Does anyone know what they have in Luke Raley? Tampa just traded him as well. First half last year he had a .925 OPS, 2nd half was .677. OPS by month went .913, .859, 1.039, .754, .662, .630. He will be very interesting to watch in Seattle this year. Did he just have a hot streak to start the year and now he's back to the well below average hitter he was in his first 55 games in the bigs in '21 and '22? Or did he figure it out and just have a bad stretch to end last year? Who is the real Luke Raley?

[FlyingFinn]

Maeda was 2nd in the Cy Young voting with us. I think you make this trade every time if you are the Twins. The amount we paid Maeda allowed us to have room in the payroll to add others in prior years. You pray for good health throughout his contract but with pitchers, it doesn't always happen.

[Riverbrian]

9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Does anyone know what they have in Luke Raley? Tampa just traded him as well. First half last year he had a .925 OPS, 2nd half was .677. OPS by month went .913, .859, 1.039, .754, .662, .630. He will be very interesting to watch in Seattle this year. Did he just have a hot streak to start the year and now he's back to the well below average hitter he was in his first 55 games in the bigs in '21 and '22? Or did he figure it out and just have a bad stretch to end last year? Who is the real Luke Raley?

I certainly don't. 

He is out of options so Luke Raley is comparable to Nick Gordon in that fashion. The Rays traded him for a 26 year old unheralded SS (never ranked as a prospect) with 3 options remaining. 

Luke Raley isn't allowed to face left handers so he is comparable to Alex Kirilloff in that fashion and he will never be of significant value as long as that is the case and at age 29... that is probably the case. 

But... Decent Defense, can steal a bag and a really nice OPS last year when it all gets added together. 

These decisions are tough. I don't blame the Twins however... I will point out that Aaron Whitefield and Jake Cave were on the 40 man in 2020.    

[nova_twins]

The Twins obviously won the deal, it's not even close. 

[jorgenswest]

Maeda finished second in the Cy Young voting in a year the Twins won the division. I want to lose more of those deals.

[SaberNerd]

Graterol has turned into a good reliever, but his fastball doesn't miss enough bats for him to be an elite reliever.  His 1.2 ERA last year was significantly lower than the 3.0 that his peripherals suggested or his career 2.8.  Maeda was elite in 20, and was solid in 21 and 23 even though he wasn't able to pitch the entire year.

 

Good but not great relievers make 5-10 mil/yr.  I'd easily do that deal again.

[bean5302]

35 minutes ago, SaberNerd said:

Graterol has turned into a good reliever, but his fastball doesn't miss enough bats for him to be an elite reliever.  His 1.2 ERA last year was significantly lower than the 3.0 that his peripherals suggested or his career 2.8.  Maeda was elite in 20, and was solid in 21 and 23 even though he wasn't able to pitch the entire year.

 

Good but not great relievers make 5-10 mil/yr.  I'd easily do that deal again.

Graterol throws a 100mph sinker, but sinkers don't generally generate a lot of strike outs. They generate slow rolling double play grounders and pop ups. Most people around here consider Duran elite so let's compare the two.

Graterol vs. Duran 
2022 = 3.26 vs. 1.86 ERA, 2.95 vs. 2.52 FIP, 3.12 vs. 2.11 xFIP, 0.99 vs. 0.98 WHIP
2023 = 1.20 vs. 2.45 ERA, 3.03 vs. 3.21 FIP, 3.53 vs. 2.75 xFIP, 0.97 vs. 1.14 WHIP
Combined = 2.08 vs. 2.15 ERA, 3.00 vs. 2.85 FIP, 3.36 vs. 2.42 xFIP, 0.97 vs. 1.05 WHIP 

Graterol looks awfully similar to Duran in terms of results so if Duran is elite, it's awfully hard to argue Graterol isn't. Obviously, Graterol strikes out and walks fewer guys, but he makes up for it because when Graterol gives up a fly ball, it's often a pop-ups while Duran's fly balls allowed almost always leave the infield.

In any case, I don't know as the Twins won or lost the trade. Maeda was a big part of why the Twins made the playoffs in 2020 and in 2023 as he was outstanding down the stretch for that matter.

[KirbyDome89]

7 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Maeda was 2nd in the Cy Young voting with us. I think you make this trade every time if you are the Twins. The amount we paid Maeda allowed us to have room in the payroll to add others in prior years. You pray for good health throughout his contract but with pitchers, it doesn't always happen.

Making 11 starts in a 60 game season. He was pretty bad then hurt in 2021, didn't pitch at all in 2022, and a decent back end option last year. His Cy Young finish is massively overstated on this board. 

All that said, I too would swap a projected relief arm for a starter I thought would settle into the middle of a rotation. 

[gunnarthor]

7 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Maeda was 2nd in the Cy Young voting with us. I think you make this trade every time if you are the Twins. The amount we paid Maeda allowed us to have room in the payroll to add others in prior years. You pray for good health throughout his contract but with pitchers, it doesn't always happen.

This is the most over hyped statement in Twins history. He made less than a  dozen starts. Big whoop. Without looking, which was his Twins season and which was other random runs he's had with the Dodgers?

11 starts, 6-1, 66.2ip, 2.70 ERA, 3.00 fip, 80k, 10 walks 
11 starts, 4-2, 60.3ip, 3.13 ERA, 3.58 fip, 63k, 17 walks
10 starts, 5-2, 57.66, 2.34 ERA, 2.76 fip, 69k, 19 walks
11 starts, 10-3, 65ip, 2.63 ERA, 3.40 fip, 65k, 12 walks

The trade made sense but it worked out a lot better for the Dodgers. Graterol has amassed more WAR in the same period than Maeta and that doesn't count his excellent post-season numbers. 

[Linus]

1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

This is the most over hyped statement in Twins history. He made less than a  dozen starts. Big whoop. Without looking, which was his Twins season and which was other random runs he's had with the Dodgers?

11 starts, 6-1, 66.2ip, 2.70 ERA, 3.00 fip, 80k, 10 walks 
11 starts, 4-2, 60.3ip, 3.13 ERA, 3.58 fip, 63k, 17 walks
10 starts, 5-2, 57.66, 2.34 ERA, 2.76 fip, 69k, 19 walks
11 starts, 10-3, 65ip, 2.63 ERA, 3.40 fip, 65k, 12 walks

The trade made sense but it worked out a lot better for the Dodgers. Graterol has amassed more WAR in the same period than Maeta and that doesn't count his excellent post-season numbers. 

Nor the extra years of control. 

[Doctor Gast]

We made off pretty well on the deal. But we could have done better. Maeda was disgruntled with LAD and they wanted to unload him. I was all in on Maeda but I was against trading  Graterol & I advocated trading our #2 Balazovik plus another big bat.

[Linus]

If Camargo becomes a good starting catcher then the Twins win the deal for sure. Otherwise no. Kenta gave us a good year and a half and LA is going to get a minimum of 6 years of a good, potentially great reliever. 

[bean5302]

14 hours ago, Linus said:

If Camargo becomes a good starting catcher then the Twins win the deal for sure. Otherwise no. Kenta gave us a good year and a half and LA is going to get a minimum of 6 years of a good, potentially great reliever. 

Can't wait to hear the takes on Sonny Gray vs. Chase Petty in a year or two, haha.

[Shaitan]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Can't wait to hear the takes on Sonny Gray vs. Chase Petty in a year or two, haha.

His 2nd place Cy Young votes are vastly overstated, obv.

[Shaitan]

On 3/13/2024 at 8:36 AM, chpettit19 said:

Who is the real Luke Raley?

Brent Rooker.

A journeyman outfielder who occasionally gets hot.

[jkcarew]

Who saw Graterol becoming an extreme ground-ball pitcher with a low (easily below league average) K-rate…who relies on an extraordinary low BABiP-against??

I never saw him as a starter...but I didn’t see this coming, either.

[KirbyDome89]

5 hours ago, Shaitan said:

His 2nd place Cy Young votes are vastly overstated, obv.

One guy started 3x as many games and threw 3x as many innings as the other. I don't think there's a comparison to be made but YMMV. 

[DocBauer]

I think trades of this nature ALWAYS have to come with the caveat of "did you get what you needed/wanted in the trade". And to me, that's far more important than "did my team win this trade"? Now, don't get me wrong. It's always nice to come out on top of any deal! But there's just SO MANY FACTORS to consider. 

Has Graterol turned out to be a quality RP for the Dodgers even though he's doing it in a different way than expected, more ground balls and less K's? Yes. Do the Dodgers have him for more years of control than Maeda? Well, duh, yeah, lol. That's what happens when you trade a younger player for an older one. 

But let's then look at it from the Twins perspective. Did we get a frontline SP to lead our staff in 2020? Yes we did! He was so good, he got Cy Young votes. Would any of us...bizarre covid year notwithstanding...really trade a wonderful and fun 2020 season, and all the enjoyment to have Graterol now? I wouldn't. And while his TJ was a MAJOR drag, he also helped the Twins to have a very successful  division win in 2023 and subsequent playoff success for the first time in over a decade.

I'm taking that as a WIN for the Twins, and us as fans!

I have a really hard time looking at Raley as any part of the deal. He was a Dodger. Then a Twin. Then a Dodger again. Then he was traded to Tampa where he's had one good year, or at least half of one, at age 29. So 3 teams later, when you factor in all the moves, he had a good season. By that examination, we should still be bemoaning the loss of Rooker 2 plus years about 3-4 teams before he had a good year.

BUT, if we really want to include Raley in the conversation...and I don't...if Camargo has a solid career as a #2 catcher, I guess we MIGHT win the deal.

But the perspective is still skewed. GAINING what Maeda did vs what Graterol is doing is NOW is only part of the puzzle. Maybe having Maeda around allowed more time for Ober and Varland to develop? And in that same time frame, if you had Duran, and Jax, to simply "replace" the potential of Graterol still on the Twins roster, did you really LOSE anything?

The Gray trade for Petty has been brought up in this thread, more for giggles than anything, but let's examine it for a moment. I HATE the old, tired axiom of THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS PITCHING PROSPECT. OF COURSE THERE IS! The Twins and EVERYONE has pitching prospects. We talk about them all the time! We might as well adopt a similar THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A HITTING PROSPECT since so many position players simply flame out. Petty, as a HS prospect, like most HS arms, has a long road ahead of him. So does top prospect Raya, drafted a year before Petty. Raya and Petty, almost the same age, threw almost the same number of IP in 2023, though Raya threw far more IP at the AA level. 

Let's assume Petty turns out to be a quality ML SP a couple of years from now. The Twins got a really solid 2022 from Gray in a season that tanked due to massive injuries. But he was solid/good. Then we got an excellent, Cy Young runner up season from him. And THEN we get a late round, early 2nd round pick for losing him to FA that might or might not turn out to be a ML player. But we got 2yrs of reality vs the potential of someone.

Again, it's about perspective of what you gave up, what you got, did you have replacements on hand, AND did you lose so much you hurt yourself?

I don't really like the win vs loss idea of trades for everything I've stated here.

And over the course of decades of this FO and the previous FO, it could be argued about wins and losses. The current FO won with Duran. On a smaller deal, the won with Farmer. They won with P Lopez. They won with Taylor. They might end up winning or at least neutral with Alcala. They might end up with egg on their face for losing on the Mahle trade and the J Lopez trade. But the results of each trade should always be measured by the end results. 

The Twins got some great and good performances from Maeda. On its own initial investment, the Twins won that trade.

 

[Aerodeliria]

I say the Twins got creamed because they let Maeda walk, so in essence, they only have Carmago. If they had signed Maeda for three years, the Twins would have won.

I am still fuming about this because Maeda was just starting to get his groove back near the end of 2023 and then we let him walk for 12 million. That was a bad deal all the way around. We nursed him back to health and then showed him the door just when he was starting to get back to his old self. You know Maeda is going to give everything in his tank for the team he pitches for and he would have solidified the front line--you can call him whatever number you want in the pecking order, but he would have been there and given his all.

[Brandon]

I was thinking that our bullpen was pretty good without Graterol in it and is really looking good this year.  so do we really need another reliever at this point?  I think the trade is win / win for all involved.  Maeda salary was a guaranteed 3 million with incentives.  so yes we did real well because we couldn't get the team we had last year if his salary was a guaranteed 10-13 million could we?  no Correa and we would have a black hole at SS right now.

 

[bean5302]

20 hours ago, Shaitan said:

Brent Rooker.

A journeyman outfielder who occasionally gets hot.

Rooker appears to be an okay starting OF. He was fairly durable last year and qualified with 526 PA. Something only 1 Twins player did last year (Carlos Correa) While playing in 137 games, he received an All Star nod, and he continued to hit, putting together a wRC+ of 127 which would have placed him above Max Kepler on the season. Even throwing Rooker's torrid April out of the equation, he put up a wRC+ of 107 with absolutely no protection in the lineup around him and his xwOBA was .340 last year.

Rooker crushing baseballs was hardly a fluke. He ranked 85th percentile in exit velocity, 93rd percentile in barrel rate, and 71st percentile in xwOBA. If it weren't for his poor defensive instincts, he'd be a consistent 2-3 WAR outfielder (equal to Max Kepler).

 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

48 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Rooker appears to be an okay starting OF. He was fairly durable last year and qualified with 526 PA. Something only 1 Twins player did last year (Carlos Correa) While playing in 137 games, he received an All Star nod, and he continued to hit, putting together a wRC+ of 127 which would have placed him above Max Kepler on the season. Even throwing Rooker's torrid April out of the equation, he put up a wRC+ of 107 with absolutely no protection in the lineup around him and his xwOBA was .340 last year.

Rooker crushing baseballs was hardly a fluke. He ranked 85th percentile in exit velocity, 93rd percentile in barrel rate, and 71st percentile in xwOBA. If it weren't for his poor defensive instincts, he'd be a consistent 2-3 WAR outfielder (equal to Max Kepler).

He's an OK hitter who trades strikeouts for hitting the ball hard (42nd percentile xwOBA, 228/.302/.438 slash line & 35.5% K rate after April) and a bad fielder.

Seems like he's straddling the line between journeyman, or starting caliber for the A's, and someone who you wouldn't hate starting but is much better suited to a 4th OF/DH bench role. 

[bean5302]

29 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

...who trades strikeouts for hitting the ball hard...

That's the prototypical power hitter in baseball these days and the exact philosophy the Twins are committed to building.

He's better than "okay" at the plate and if we're shrinking sample sizes down, it's worth looking at them in portions, hoping for a trend. The trend I see from last year is he's likely a plus bat. There are definitely holes in his game that will prevent him from ever being an elite bat.
April 1.262 OPS
May .616 OPS
June .620 OPS <--- this is where almost everybody thought "pumpkin"
July .883 OPS
August .700 OPS
September .848 OPS

[jmlease1]

On 3/13/2024 at 6:28 AM, Riverbrian said:

Unless Camargo becomes decent value. We lost the deal. But... not as bad as the Red Sox lost in the deal.

I have no complaint from what we received in Kenta Maeda. Kenta pitched very well for us. Maeda's time with us is done while Brusdar and the Dodgers still have 3 years to go.

Starting pitching is more valuable than relief pitching... however... Brusdar has become one of the top relievers in baseball. 

I'm willing to say Brusdar for Kenta straight up... just might be a draw. 

It's the rest of the deal where we lost. 

Luke Raley and Clayton Beeter.

Beeter was who the Dodgers selected with the competitive balance pick we traded in the deal. He just might open the year in the Yankees rotation this season. The Dodgers traded him for Joey Gallo so the competitive balance pick part was squandered but no matter what the Dodgers did... that was a draft pick that was not made by the Twins. 

and then we get to Luke Raley. 

What have the Twins given up in Luke Raley? Did the Twins know what they had in Luke Raley? Did the Dodgers know what they had in Luke Raley? 

At the time of the trade... he was a 25 year old .310 hitter with a .878 OPS in AAA. Decision time was coming up on Luke Raley. We keep trying to make Larnach type hitters fly right while Raley and Wade type guys fall away. 

I'll say... We lost the trade until Camargo can make up the difference of Raley and Beeter. 

But... we didn't lose it as bad as the Red Sox did. Oh Boy... did they lose that trade. 

I think when you start looking at 3rd order impacts to evaluate a trade you're going down a rabbit hole with no end. It doesn't matter than Luke Raley had a good 2023 for TB or Beeter is a potential rotation guy for the Yankees: they're neither of those things for the Dodgers, and it's not like Raley or Beeter was immediately turned into something. (BTW, good luck on Beeter being a real choice for the yankees; dude might hunt Ks in the minors, but a 4.9 BB/9 for a guy who wasn't exactly unhittable in AAA isn't likely to do more than make some spot starts, get killed and sent back to the minors.)

Twins took a chance on Maeda staying healthy and while it didn't work out for them, the trade has still been good and the kind of deal I would still make. Starters are harder to find than relievers, and even with Maeda missing an entire season, he still threw 50 more innings for the Twins than Graterol has done for the Dodgers. yes, Graterol had an excellent season in 2023, but it's far and away his best season as a pro and from what we know about relievers and some of his underlying numbers...is it really likely to be repeated?

I agree with the sentiment though that this was a deal where both teams got what they wanted: Twins needed a starter who could throw at the top end of their rotation, Dodgers needed a reliever with upside. Both teams got it.

Raley having a good half season (notably, he was much worse in the 2nd half and played a lot less) really doesn't impact this deal. Camargo is the only other player outside of the principals still in either team's system, and if he turns out to be a quality backup MLB catcher...nice work by the Twins front office to grab a guy at a position of need.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

56 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

That's the prototypical power hitter in baseball these days and the exact philosophy the Twins are committed to building.

He's better than "okay" at the plate and if we're shrinking sample sizes down, it's worth looking at them in portions, hoping for a trend. The trend I see from last year is he's likely a plus bat. There are definitely holes in his game that will prevent him from ever being an elite bat.
April 1.262 OPS
May .616 OPS
June .620 OPS <--- this is where almost everybody thought "pumpkin"
July .883 OPS
August .700 OPS
September .848 OPS

Right, it's a prototypical approach that gets you 3 months of awful production in a 6 month season if the guy has this much swing & miss in his game. I don't view his 2023 season as all that dissimilar to Joey Gallo - his April was better for longer and overall made a bit more contact.

I like Brent Rooker, he's a great Twitter follow, but I think 1 month colored a lot of people's view on him. 

[Riverbrian]

48 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I think when you start looking at 3rd order impacts to evaluate a trade you're going down a rabbit hole with no end. It doesn't matter than Luke Raley had a good 2023 for TB or Beeter is a potential rotation guy for the Yankees: they're neither of those things for the Dodgers, and it's not like Raley or Beeter was immediately turned into something. (BTW, good luck on Beeter being a real choice for the yankees; dude might hunt Ks in the minors, but a 4.9 BB/9 for a guy who wasn't exactly unhittable in AAA isn't likely to do more than make some spot starts, get killed and sent back to the minors.)

Twins took a chance on Maeda staying healthy and while it didn't work out for them, the trade has still been good and the kind of deal I would still make. Starters are harder to find than relievers, and even with Maeda missing an entire season, he still threw 50 more innings for the Twins than Graterol has done for the Dodgers. yes, Graterol had an excellent season in 2023, but it's far and away his best season as a pro and from what we know about relievers and some of his underlying numbers...is it really likely to be repeated?

I agree with the sentiment though that this was a deal where both teams got what they wanted: Twins needed a starter who could throw at the top end of their rotation, Dodgers needed a reliever with upside. Both teams got it.

Raley having a good half season (notably, he was much worse in the 2nd half and played a lot less) really doesn't impact this deal. Camargo is the only other player outside of the principals still in either team's system, and if he turns out to be a quality backup MLB catcher...nice work by the Twins front office to grab a guy at a position of need.

All trades have branches that could potentially stretch on for decades so I do agree with you about the rabbit hole. Winners and losers often take a long long time to determine winners and losers... typically us fans don't have the patience to wait it out that long. 

Although... I will disagree with the idea that what the Dodgers got out of the deal matters in the assessment. That's a separate Dodger discussion and this is a Twins discussion on what the Twins gave up.  

If the Dodgers didn't get anything out of Raley or Beeter that's on them. The return the Dodgers got for those players are Joey Gallo for a real bad half of a year and a kid currently in AAA named Tanner Dodson who doesn't appear to be knocking down the door. The Dodgers didn't lose the trade with the Twins... they potentially lost their trade with the Yankees and they lost the trade with the Rays.   

The only part that matters is that it cost the Twins paid... which was Brusdar, Raley and the 66th pick overall in the 2020 draft.

There are no guarantees that Luke Raley would be playing in the major leagues right now if the Twins kept him and included someone else in the deal.

I'll contend that opportunity for Luke would have been plentiful with the Twins in 2021 but it doesn't mean that he would have shown anything in that opportunity. But... we won't know that because the chance for him to show major league ability with the Twins was removed as a possibility immediately after the trade. that potential to become a major league player with the Twins is part of the cost and potentially not insignificant.  

There are also no guarantees that the Twins would have actually selected Clayton Beeter like the Dodgers did if they would have hung on to that pick. Maybe the Twins scouts didn't like Beeter, maybe the Scouts liked Kyle Harrison or Coby Mayo or Joey Weimer or Spencer Strider better then Beeter. Maybe the Twins liked Tom Terrible Player in that draft slot if they kept that selection. We don't know but the potential of the draft slot could have been Spencer Strider who was available to be drafted out of Clemson at 66 in 2020. That is cost... that was included in the deal.   

The draft pick and Luke Raley are considerations in my mind and so is Jair Camargo. If Camargo turns out to be a decent major league players at C... I'll declare the Twins the winner of the trade. Until then... I think the potential of Raley and the  indirect potential of a Spencer Strider makes the possibility of this trade going into the loss column. 

Either way... I'm not disappointed in the deal. Kenta was a good pitcher for us. Brusdar is a good pitcher for the Dodgers. Win Win even if we lost it slightly. 

[jmlease1]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Rooker appears to be an okay starting OF. He was fairly durable last year and qualified with 526 PA. Something only 1 Twins player did last year (Carlos Correa) While playing in 137 games, he received an All Star nod, and he continued to hit, putting together a wRC+ of 127 which would have placed him above Max Kepler on the season. Even throwing Rooker's torrid April out of the equation, he put up a wRC+ of 107 with absolutely no protection in the lineup around him and his xwOBA was .340 last year.

Rooker crushing baseballs was hardly a fluke. He ranked 85th percentile in exit velocity, 93rd percentile in barrel rate, and 71st percentile in xwOBA. If it weren't for his poor defensive instincts, he'd be a consistent 2-3 WAR outfielder (equal to Max Kepler).

 

sure, but let's not pretend he was an all-star caliber player. He's a very streaky hitter on a terrible team that needed to be represented on the squad. Yes, he can crush fastballs...but is he going to see any if it matters? There's a reason he was pretty bad with RISP, and better with the bases open then with anyone on. He's a starter on a bad team. I have more faith in Kepler this season than I do Rooker.

again, much like with Raley: it's nice for these guys that they had successful seasons. It doesn't mean that the teams that let them go were necessarily all that wrong about them. Wallner is younger and was as productive last season as Rooker was in about half the PT, and Wallner is substantially better defensively. And it made sense that SD didn't see him as passing their guys either. (A bit more surprising that he never got much of a chance in KC, because they stunk in 2022) Same with Raley: a not particularly good defender who had a hot first half in his age 28 season. There's a reason TB dealt him for a good defensive 2B, and he's going to be fighting for a job as a utility/4th OF now with Seattle.

how much more upside is in Rooker or Raley? How likely is it that they're going to be back in the sub/replacement player range again soon?