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Posted

Option restrictions play a big part in roster decisions. This spring, they may as well be that man behind the curtain controlling the Twins’ Opening Day roster--but you should pay attention to him. It’s essential to keep them in mind as you start to put together your own projected roster.

Image courtesy of © Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

Spring training is often a time when big-league hopefuls compete against each other to etch out a spot on the parent club. The last couple spots of the bullpen, the fifth starter, the fourth outfielder, or the utility guy are often contested. Sometimes, even a starting role is fought over between two veterans.

As time has passed, there have been fewer position battles, as teams tend to have a better idea of what each player on the roster is capable of, and less attention is paid to spring statistics. This year, it’s debatable how much flexibility for position battles the Twins have at all, but it’s not entirely because of clearly better or worse players—it’s also because of roster rules.

Enter the minor league option. Once Opening Day arrives, I’ll publish a complete primer on options and which Twins have them, as I did last year, but it’s worth discussing a few cases during the spring. Very quickly, to be eligible for an MLB active roster, a player must be on that team’s expanded 40-man roster. A player on the 40-man roster can be in the majors or minors.

If a player is sent to the minors while on the team’s 40-man roster, they must have option years remaining. If the player has no option years remaining, they must be exposed to waivers to be sent down. When a player is exposed to waivers, any team willing to pay their salary can acquire their services without the player or their original team having the ability to stop the move.

Why does this matter? Several players in the organization are out of options, and need to either break camp with the Twins or pass through waivers to be sent to Triple-A St. Paul.

Some of those players who are out of options aren’t send-down candidates anyway, as they’re expected to be significant contributors. Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Carlos Correa, Pablo López, Caleb Thielbar, and Brock Stewart are all out of options, but none are in any danger of getting sent down (regardless of what you wanted them to do last May with Kepler).

Other players who still have options can be considered locks to make the Opening Day roster, health permitting, such as Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner, Ryan Jeffers, Alex Kirilloff, Willi Castro, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Justin Topa. You can quibble with a few of these, but seeing them not head north with the club would be surprising.

If you haven’t been taking notes, that leaves three bench spots, two rotation spots, and three bullpen spots. But some of those are likely claimed.

Three Bench Spots
Unnamed in the top lists are Kyle Farmer and Christian Vazquez, both of whom have no options remaining but are still locks for the roster. Even if you believe Brooks Lee or Austin Martin should be the utility infielder or Jair Camargo should be the backup catcher, that can’t be solved by stashing Famer or Vazquez at Triple-A. They would need to be waived.

Farmer and Vazquez are locks because they were out of options and paid a combined $16 million. There was one spot left that could have gone to minor leaguers like Martin, Camargo, Jose Miranda, or Yunior Severino, but, with the arrival of Manuel Margot, that's unlikely. Margot is also out of options, all but guaranteeing a spot on the bench.

Two Starting Rotation Spots
There are two spots beyond Lopez, Ryan, and Ober, but options also cloud the process of picking those pitchers. Chris Paddack and Anthony DeSclafani are out of options, effectively penning them into the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation. Even if the Twins are not excited about these two options (DeSclafani more likely than Paddack), they’re compelled to keep them there.

Unfortunately for Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, or even Randy Dobnak, those spots are filled by pitchers who can’t be sent down, which means that the youngsters will need to wait their time, no matter how much they dazzle in the spring. How long a leash DeSclafani will get if his 2022 and 2023 struggles continue is a good question, but for Opening Day, his status will likely make the Twins’ decision for them.

Three Bullpen Spots
The Twins boast one of—if not the—deepest bullpen in team history. Behind the top five already mentioned are veterans like Steven Okert, Jay Jackson, Josh Staumont, and Zack Weiss, along with organizational products like Jorge Alcala, Kody Funderburk, Josh Winder, Cole Sands, and Jordan Balazovic.

There are a lot of names there, and it would be fun to watch a classic position battle for the last three spots, but options will get in the way again. Okert and Jackson are both out of options and making a few million dollars combined. That pretty much settles that debate. If the Twins are unwilling to expose those two veterans to waivers, they’re also locks for the Opening Day roster.

That brings the count down to one bullpen role, with many pitchers who can fill it. Unfortunately, for fans who love watching position battles, that’s the only spot that isn’t occupied by a lock or a player out of options. As a side note, Balazovic is out of options but not on the 40-man roster, so he's fine to be sent to the minors. If he gets added to the Twins roster again, though, he'd need to be DFAd and clear waivers to be sent down.

Conclusion
So, to count off the players whose option status is nigh on guaranteed by their being out of options, we have Vazquez, Farmer, Margot, Paddack, DeSclafani, Okert, and Jackson. If you wonder why one of these bums (your words, not mine) is on the team over your favorite prospect, options are part of the reason.

In truth, only one line won’t be occupied by a lock or a player out of options: the last reliever. Of course, injuries can change these situations, but it’s worth taking note of which players have little chance of not making the team, either because of their abilities or those pesky roster rules. Don’t say I didn’t warn ya!


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Posted

Question:  If Vasquez has a miserable spring training and he (and his $10M salary) were put on waivers, would any team claim him?  

This is NOT a speculation or a suggestion.  I'm just curious.

Posted
6 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Question:  If Vasquez has a miserable spring training and he (and his $10M salary) were put on waivers, would any team claim him?  

I would be surprised if he wasn't. The price is a little on the high side, but one bad year usually doesn't wipe out the memory of several good ones. And he wasn't horrendous last year, just not very good 

Decent catchers are hard to find - the Brewers just signed Gary Sanchez, and he hasn't been good for a while (and has never been good defensively)

Posted

Great read and timely article as we try to picture the final roster.  I agree with the author's sentiments that the roster may start out being constructed with a couple "out of option" guys that may or may not be the best player.  It seems to be a strategy.  Let the 30 year old out of option guy sink or swim as your first layer of depth.  If they sink, you can likely expose them to waivers with little risk and get them to AAA.  In the meantime, let the young guys earn their way out of AAA by showing who's ready for call ups.  I'll be shocked if all five of these guys make it the full year on the roster:

Anthony DeSclafani 

Jay Jackson

Josh Staumont 

Justin Topa

Zack Weiss 

Posted

The first derivative of the Margot trade is that it essentially eliminated Larnach and Martin as contenders to break camp with the team as the last (13th) position player on the roster.

The second derivative is that it puts more pressure on Wallner and Kiriloff, and maybe Castro (the pre trade #10-12 position players) as really the only candidates who can be sent down if someone heats up in AAA or is just ready to be brought up.  So if Lee is brought up, which we all expect at some point in the not so distant future, then, barring injury, one of those guys will be sent across the river.  Moreover, the trade makes the bar that much higher for a Larnach or Martin to be called up because then a second one of those three would need to be sent down as well - assuming Lee is brought up.

The Margot trade actually stinks for several of the younger players on the edge of making and/or staying with the big club. 

 

Posted
54 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Question:  If Vasquez has a miserable spring training and he (and his $10M salary) were put on waivers, would any team claim him?  

This is NOT a speculation or a suggestion.  I'm just curious.

Nothing would be made of a veteran player stinking in spring training.  He is good enough defensively that they would not even consider waiving him unless he absolutely sucked offensively for two-thirds of the season and Camargo was crushing AAA.

Posted
1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

Question:  If Vasquez has a miserable spring training and he (and his $10M salary) were put on waivers, would any team claim him?  

This is NOT a speculation or a suggestion.  I'm just curious.

I don't think he would be claimed but I think the Twins could work out a trade where they don't have to eat all $10M.

Posted
12 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

The first derivative of the Margot trade is that it essentially eliminated Larnach and Martin as contenders to break camp with the team as the last (13th) position player on the roster.

The second derivative is that it puts more pressure on Wallner and Kiriloff, and maybe Castro (the pre trade #10-12 position players) as really the only candidates who can be sent down if someone heats up in AAA or is just ready to be brought up.  So if Lee is brought up, which we all expect at some point in the not so distant future, then, barring injury, one of those guys will be sent across the river.  Moreover, the trade makes the bar that much higher for a Larnach or Martin to be called up because then a second one of those three would need to be sent down as well - assuming Lee is brought up.

The Margot trade actually stinks for several of the younger players on the edge of making the big club. 

They aren't going to send down a starting position player just because they have options. If Wallner or Kirilloff end up in AAA this season it will be due to poor performance. Spots will naturally open up due to injuries (I don't think any team has their top players all healthy at the same time) and if someone like Lee or Larnach shows they are ready to be a contributor as a starter then they will open a spot for them with a trade. The Twins have several veteran players with 1 season of team control remaining (Kepler, DeSclafani, Thielbar, Margot, Farmer, Santana). Those players are pretty easy to trade off at the deadline.

Posted
32 minutes ago, Kenny Powers said:

Great read and timely article as we try to picture the final roster.  I agree with the author's sentiments that the roster may start out being constructed with a couple "out of option" guys that may or may not be the best player.  It seems to be a strategy.  Let the 30 year old out of option guy sink or swim as your first layer of depth.  If they sink, you can likely expose them to waivers with little risk and get them to AAA.  In the meantime, let the young guys earn their way out of AAA by showing who's ready for call ups.  I'll be shocked if all five of these guys make it the full year on the roster:

Anthony DeSclafani 

Jay Jackson

Josh Staumont 

Justin Topa

Zack Weiss 

I like your note - I feel like we are putting too much expectation in the players you list.  All are just as likely to burn out as rise.  A player like Topa has a very short resume of success and non of the others have a career of high production or we would not have them.  So let's see the game play out. 

I am afraid I do not have faith in Balazovic rising to the level I once expected.  Dobnak was a nice story, but it is over.  Winder has risen and fallen and I no longer expect much from him.  The BP will be the turbulent aspect of the roster despite all the spring optimism. 

Posted
5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They aren't going to send down a starting position player just because they have options. If Wallner or Kirilloff end up in AAA this season it will be due to poor performance. Spots will naturally open up due to injuries (I don't think any team has their top players all healthy at the same time) and if someone like Lee or Larnach shows they are ready to be a contributor as a starter then they will open a spot for them with a trade. The Twins have several veteran players with 1 season of team control remaining (Kepler, DeSclafani, Thielbar, Margot, Farmer, Santana). Those players are pretty easy to trade off at the deadline.

All could be true, but it could change the definition of “poor performance” a bit.  The margin of error, so to speak, may be a little lower for those players. And, btw, trading one or more of those vets would likely mean the return are prospects - not a player looking to be an immediate contributor.  Also, sure it’s “pretty easy” to trade anyone if you are just looking to clear a spot and don’t care about the return or would be willing to eat some remaining salary.  But getting a good return for any of those vets may be harder to come by than suggested.  Of course, it also presumes you want to trade one of them - they all may be performing as or better than expected and are important contributors (oh, and DeSclafani doesn’t count - his spot on the roster would need to be filled by a pitcher).

Posted

Reasonable follow up to the article Wednesday that asked which positions are up for grabs. Most people felt the roster looks set, as you suggest, yet a few people disagreed with thumbs down on a set roster prognosis.

The Twins may be a little more proactive about putting a guy who doesn't produce on the IL this year, which would serve to give whomever is called upon from AAA an opportunity. 

There will probably be some very motivated players at AAA waiting for an injury or some roster move to open a spot on the 26 person MLB roster.

An unknown is how much patience the Twins will show for their younger players.

Posted
14 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

trading one or more of those vets would likely mean the return are prospects - not a player looking to be an immediate contributor

The whole point of the trade is to free up playing time for a rookie. Why would you want an immediate contributor in return? You'd want Lee or Larnach or Martin or Funderburk or Varland or Woods-Richardson to get the innings.

Posted

The Twins have traded flexibility for depth. They have two bench players ranking tied for 4th(Vazquez) and 6th(Farmer) in their burden on the payroll. Vazquez was signed at a time when the payroll was $32 million more. He fits on that roster. Farmer was signed with the knowledge they would reduce payroll. That doesn’t make sense to me. Both are great fits on a team that can spend another 32 million on an everyday position player and possibly starter. Neither fit so well on this trimmed budget. I wonder if they tried to trade both to reduce payroll and couldn’t find anyone to take their full salary. 

If I needed to cut 30+ million from the budget I would have filled the bench and 5th starter spot with rookies. How close can Helman or Martin or Lee come to replacing the production of Farmer? How close is Varland to DeSclafani? Is it close enough to combine those dollars with the Margot and Santana dollars to add an impact player or at least an everyday player like Justin Turner or Polanco? Would this be a better roster with that everyday player and the other spots filled with some from AAA?

Posted
2 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Question:  If Vasquez has a miserable spring training and he (and his $10M salary) were put on waivers, would any team claim him?  

This is NOT a speculation or a suggestion.  I'm just curious.

I think there’s a solid chance that he’d get claimed if that that happened but it would depend on the needs of the other 29 teams. I’d be stunned if he got waived over ST performance because that doesn’t really happen in modern baseball. However, even if he was passed through waivers, he has enough service time to refuse a trip to minors and would likely need to be released.

Posted
19 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The whole point of the trade is to free up playing time for a rookie. Why would you want an immediate contributor in return? You'd want Lee or Larnach or Martin or Funderburk or Varland or Woods-Richardson to get the innings.

It would be a big plus for this team if we get the same type of boost we got from Lewis/Wallner, and Julien last year.   While I appreciate the depth provided by Farmer / Santana / Margot, their ceilings are not that high and they have no chance of contributing in the future.  It would be very good news if a prospect crushed AAA and then earned their way on to the ML roster much like Lewis/Julien/Wallner.  Kepler is a different deal if he is playing like he did the last 4 months of 2023.  That rookie better be tearing it up and the return substantial.  It could make sense with Thielbar if the BP depth turns out as good as we hoped, assuming once again a decent return.

Posted
17 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

If I needed to cut 30+ million from the budget I would have filled the bench and 5th starter spot with rookies. 

That would stunt the growth of your prospects AND make sure you don't have any depth when some of them inevitably fail to meet expectations. Then you'd be searching the waiver wire for discarded veterans.

Posted

This years roster actually looks like we have luxury payroll with high paid bench players vs. some of the starters. It really means the FO did great at buying depth and AAA is loaded with talented youth.  All this and a reduced payroll. By the end of may, we will probably have an injury or 4 and the young guns across the river better be ready. If anyone remembers last years opening day roster, it lasted about 4 days. 

Posted
56 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The whole point of the trade is to free up playing time for a rookie. Why would you want an immediate contributor in return? You'd want Lee or Larnach or Martin or Funderburk or Varland or Woods-Richardson to get the innings.

No, that is not necessarily true. At the deadline we hopefully will want a player that will make an immediate impact for the remainder of the season who will help us get to the World Series.  That is what we all should hope for. 

Posted
3 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Question:  If Vasquez has a miserable spring training and he (and his $10M salary) were put on waivers, would any team claim him?  

This is NOT a speculation or a suggestion.  I'm just curious.

Interesting hypothetical question. My view is that for sure there isn’t any surplus value in his contract but I bet he would get claimed. Catching is so scarce. 
I actually had the same hypothetical thought about Correa. If the Twins are going to run with a lower payroll going forward would getting out of his contract be worth it?  For example go to him and say Carlos do you want another shot at free agency?  If he has a good year this year would he get a better deal than what he has?  I know it’s not happening but an interesting thought exercise (for me anyway). 

Posted
51 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

It would be a big plus for this team if we get the same type of boost we got from Lewis/Wallner, and Julien last year.   While I appreciate the depth provided by Farmer / Santana / Margot, their ceilings are not that high and they have no chance of contributing in the future.  It would be very good news if a prospect crushed AAA and then earned their way on to the ML roster much like Lewis/Julien/Wallner.  Kepler is a different deal if he is playing like he did the last 4 months of 2023.  That rookie better be tearing it up and the return substantial.  It could make sense with Thielbar if the BP depth turns out as good as we hoped, assuming once again a decent return.

Yeah, that's the goal. The problem though is that the last two years Miranda (2022), Lewis, Julien and Wallner all came up when the vet in front of them got injured. When the vet came back there was room to keep them because the team just sent Larnach, Kirilloff, Cave, Garlick and Miranda (2023) down to St. Paul.

Can't do that this year as there aren't enough players with options. So now what happens if Lee or whomever is raking at the majors and helping the team win games? They're going to get sent back down anyway when the vet returns.

Posted
41 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, that's the goal. The problem though is that the last two years Miranda (2022), Lewis, Julien and Wallner all came up when the vet in front of them got injured. When the vet came back there was room to keep them because the team just sent Larnach, Kirilloff, Cave, Garlick and Miranda (2023) down to St. Paul.

Can't do that this year as there aren't enough players with options. So now what happens if Lee or whomever is raking at the majors and helping the team win games? They're going to get sent back down anyway when the vet returns.

I would hope that they find a trade partner if we are talking about Farmer / Santana / Margot or perhaps even Thielbar.  We know they have been slow to move on but to keep Margot for example if martin is raking makes no sense.  It's also not terribly dissimilar to what they just did with Polanco and Arraez before him with the obvious exception those were off-season moves.   

Posted
3 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

The first derivative of the Margot trade is that it essentially eliminated Larnach and Martin as contenders to break camp with the team as the last (13th) position player on the roster.

The second derivative is that it puts more pressure on Wallner and Kiriloff, and maybe Castro (the pre trade #10-12 position players) as really the only candidates who can be sent down if someone heats up in AAA or is just ready to be brought up.  So if Lee is brought up, which we all expect at some point in the not so distant future, then, barring injury, one of those guys will be sent across the river.  Moreover, the trade makes the bar that much higher for a Larnach or Martin to be called up because then a second one of those three would need to be sent down as well - assuming Lee is brought up.

The Margot trade actually stinks for several of the younger players on the edge of making and/or staying with the big club. 

It may stink for those players, but it's also up to them to prove they're worthy of that roster spot. 

Posted
30 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

It may stink for those players, but it's also up to them to prove they're worthy of that roster spot. 

Especially for a team that has legit playoff aspirations. It’s one thing to roll the dice on a young player if you know you aren’t going anywhere. Different story when you are win now team. 

Posted
5 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Question:  If Vasquez has a miserable spring training and he (and his $10M salary) were put on waivers, would any team claim him?  

This is NOT a speculation or a suggestion.  I'm just curious.

He is still considered one of the best defensive catchers in the league.  I bet a team would claim him.  Sure, you hope he hits better than he has, but I doubt it was not a coincidence that our pitchers all did better last year, than the year prior when we had Sanchez as our main catcher.  

I know everyone loves Jeffers offense, but we have not seen him play the every day role long term.  He could take a step back if he is expected to play most of the games behind the plate.  Also, if we dump Vasquez, not like we will replace his 10 mil with anyone, and then if Jeffers gets hurt, which he has in the past, then we have a rookie running the pitching staff full time and finding some cast off guy. 

Posted
3 minutes ago, Trov said:

He is still considered one of the best defensive catchers in the league.  I bet a team would claim him.  Sure, you hope he hits better than he has, but I doubt it was not a coincidence that our pitchers all did better last year, than the year prior when we had Sanchez as our main catcher.  

I know everyone loves Jeffers offense, but we have not seen him play the every day role long term.  He could take a step back if he is expected to play most of the games behind the plate.  Also, if we dump Vasquez, not like we will replace his 10 mil with anyone, and then if Jeffers gets hurt, which he has in the past, then we have a rookie running the pitching staff full time and finding some cast off guy. 

This has been an interesting side discussion. 

I'd say there is a chance he gets claimed and the reason that I limit it to a "Chance":

In order to sign a free agent... a team usually must pay more than the other 29 teams are willing to pay. That's how free agency typically works so naturally by signing a free agent contract... they are immediately out of everyone else's price range meaning they will be unwilling to take on the contract whole. 

For Vazquez to be claimed and his contract taken over by another team. You would need a team to develop a new huge hole behind the plate and become suddenly willing to pay money that they were not willing to pay last off-season. Granted... a year being taken off the deal increases the odds but I guess only a little. 2 years at 10 million a pop is still pretty steep. 

It Could happen... but not likely so I think the most likely scenario would be the Twins place him on waivers and the Twins will try to find a trade partner and they will need to send money in the deal to get his contract to area where the acquiring team is comfortable. Or they send along Isiah Kiner-Falefa so the acquring team can patch a hole. 

If they can't find a trade partner. Vazquez would clear waivers, refuse assignment and he would be able to choose from multiple suitors as a free agent. He would sign elsewhere and play for the minimum while the Twins paid his contract off in full as dead money. 

In other words... There is absolutely no way that the Twins place Vazquez on waivers.  

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