2024 Minnesota Twins Opening Day Roster Projections: Finally Final

[jkcarew]

The class of the AL Central!

[gunnarthor]

I like out hitting depth. Lee and Martin (and Jenkins) are going to hit when they get up here. I don't like the pitching staff, so we'll see. Right now, I think they are good enough to win the Central but not much else. 

[Jocko87]

25 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I am not trying to predict what the Twins will do. These are my thoughts on where I think they need to be better against right handed pitching and how I would make room for that need.

Do you think it is a need? How would you fill that need?

 

A full year of Julien and Wallner, a healthy AK and second half Kepler cover it for me. They should be much better against righties but there was more on an issue against lefties, which Farmer helps.  Farmer's fit as everyone's backup and a rock to steady the kids is far more valuable than the incremental difference of Larnach stealing playing time from Margot.  They also can't use two bench spots on outfield only players. 

[stringer bell]

The only unsettled spot would be the last guy in the bullpen. Staumont has the most experience, but there are a lot of guys that can make a case for that spot. Alcalá and Funderburk being at the front of the line if someone disappoints or is injured.

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

I like out hitting depth. Lee and Martin (and Jenkins) are going to hit when they get up here. I don't like the pitching staff, so we'll see. Right now, I think they are good enough to win the Central but not much else. 

There's plenty of pitching depth as well. Good thing they have 6 months to sort out the playoff roster.

[Heinie Manush]

One more move, please.  Larnarch/Miranda plus any prospect except Lee or Jenkins for a decent middle of the rotation starter.  Hate to give up prospects but I think we're really close.

[RpR]

17 minutes ago, Heinie Manush said:

One more move, please.  Larnarch/Miranda plus any prospect except Lee or Jenkins for a decent middle of the rotation starter.  Hate to give up prospects but I think we're really close.

Alphabetically  - Julien, Larnach, Miranda, might get a usable pitcher.

[Dlee]

rotate the players on the hot streak, use the injury card when needed.

 

[Greglw3]

8 hours ago, Karbo said:

Can someone explain how so many writers on this site have Santana pegged as the main 1st baseman? I was under the impression he was signed to platoon with AK at 1st. If the Twins are hoping for more than that, it seems they will have a big hole in the lineup against RHP.

I hardly think the Twins would sign a gold glove caliber 1st baseman, who has 301 HR and 9-11 seasons with 90-110 BBs and had 86 RBIs last season, to platoon with Kirilloff. Carlos Santana is one of the great players of his generation. Kirilloff unproven

[arby58]

23 hours ago, Karbo said:

defensively yes, But he hasn't hit much against RHP for the last few years. Can he save enough runs to make up for his negative hitting?

I assume Santana will play close to 100 percent of the time against LHP (and Kirilloff not very much, given his .482 OPS against them last year) and play first base. I agree that Kirilloff will be in the line-up against RHP close to 100 percent of the time. While I don't think Santana will take AB from Kirilloff against RHP, he wasn't that bad last year against them - he hit 17 HRs off them and had an OPS+ of 98. IF he is in the line-up against a RHP, he'll generally play 1B and Kirilloff will probably DH. Santana is a better 1B defensively. At least that's my take on it.

[Doctor Wu]

11 hours ago, stringer bell said:

The only unsettled spot would be the last guy in the bullpen. Staumont has the most experience, but there are a lot of guys that can make a case for that spot. Alcalá and Funderburk being at the front of the line if someone disappoints or is injured.

I think the bullpen mix might change before opening day too. I'm still not convinced that the 4 news arms we added will all be there on opening day. Injuries are another wild card. As  you noted, a player like Alcala or Funderburk could definitely snag that last spot. 

[Karbo]

8 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

I hardly think the Twins would sign a gold glove caliber 1st baseman, who has 301 HR and 9-11 seasons with 90-110 BBs and had 86 RBIs last season, to platoon with Kirilloff. Carlos Santana is one of the great players of his generation. Kirilloff unproven

I agree he was one of the better players of his time, but time catches up with everyone, and looking at his past few seasons it has caught and passed him.

[Major League Ready]

9 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

I hardly think the Twins would sign a gold glove caliber 1st baseman, who has 301 HR and 9-11 seasons with 90-110 BBs and had 86 RBIs last season, to platoon with Kirilloff. Carlos Santana is one of the great players of his generation. Kirilloff unproven

How good he was and how good he is going to be at 38 are two very different things.  He was a great player but he has not been that player for the past 4 seasons.    I would be very happy if he can do the job he was brought here for which is to platoon against LHP where Kirilloff is bad.  

They would probably be better of having Castro as the DH against RHP or Castro spelling Lewis, Wallner, Julien, and even Correa while those players DH.  To put it in perspective, Gallo's wRC+ was 10 point higher than Santana last year against RHP and Santana's numbers were up from the previous 2 years against RHP last year.

[miracleb]

18 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Looks about right.  After much consternation over the offseason we can start to compare with last years opening day roster.  https://www.mlb.com/news/twins-2023-opening-day-roster

My summation 2023 > 2024

Gallo > AK

Solano > Santana

Gordon > Julien

Miranda > Lewis

MAT > Margot

Larnach > Wallner

Gray > Ober

Mahle > Paddack

Maeda > Disco

Lopez, Pagan, Alcala, Moran, Sands > Stewart, Topa, Jackson, Staumont, Okert

Some possible downgrades but a lot of this looks better to me.  There is significant reason they believe in the group they have.  LFG!

Not sure you understand how the "greater-than" and  "less-than" symbols work.......

:-)

 

[Jeff K]

19 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

How is a maxed and stacked team like the LAD projected as fWAR 41.5 and the TC 41.3?

I was wondering the same thing.  The audio doesn't match the video!

[arby58]

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

I agree he was one of the better players of his time, but time catches up with everyone, and looking at his past few seasons it has caught and passed him.

I think that is a little harsh. Last year, he had 2.7 WAR - would have tied for 3rd on the Twins. He had 23 HR, only Kepler's 24 were more for the Twins. He had 86 RBI - that would have been first on the Twins (by 20!). He had a 103 OPS+, meaning he was above league average. Throw in a good glove at first base, and it doesn't look like time has 'passed him' yet. Granted, it may this year, but that would not be based on last year's performance.

[Trov]

20 hours ago, Karbo said:

Can someone explain how so many writers on this site have Santana pegged as the main 1st baseman? I was under the impression he was signed to platoon with AK at 1st. If the Twins are hoping for more than that, it seems they will have a big hole in the lineup against RHP.

AK numbers against RHP is not that much better than Santana's numbers against RHP.  The difference in OPS from AK career to even Santana last year is only .040 points about, and slugging is only .020 points.  That is not a black hole in comparison. I have high hope for AK but he has yet to show he can reach what we thought. 

[Major League Ready]

43 minutes ago, arby58 said:

I think that is a little harsh. Last year, he had 2.7 WAR - would have tied for 3rd on the Twins. He had 23 HR, only Kepler's 24 were more for the Twins. He had 86 RBI - that would have been first on the Twins (by 20!). He had a 103 OPS+, meaning he was above league average. Throw in a good glove at first base, and it doesn't look like time has 'passed him' yet. Granted, it may this year, but that would not be based on last year's performance.

Not sure where these numbers are coming from.  He had 1.7 fWAR and 1.6 bWAR.  What concerns me is that the 3 previous he produced a total of 1.2 WAR or an average of .4 WAR. 

[chpettit19]

13 minutes ago, Trov said:

AK numbers against RHP is not that much better than Santana's numbers against RHP.  The difference in OPS from AK career to even Santana last year is only .040 points about, and slugging is only .020 points.  That is not a black hole in comparison. I have high hope for AK but he has yet to show he can reach what we thought. 

2023 vs RHP:
Kirilloff- .300/.373/.485/.858
Santana- .231/.306/.421/.727

Santana's quad-slash the 2 previous years vs righties were .178/.289/.366/.655 in 2022 and .184/.309/.327/.636 in 2021.

I'd say AK reached what we thought last year vs righties. You're taking AK's first 2 injury riddled years and counting those vs Santana's best year by far in 3 years. 

2021-2023 vs RHP:
Kirilloff- .274/.328/.440/.768 and a 112 wRC+
Santana- .200/.302/.372/.675 and a 86 wRC+

So for 2023 Kirilloff beat him by 131 points of OPS and for the 3 year stretch of AK's injury riddled career he's beat him by 93 points of OPS. It's a black hole in comparison.

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, miracleb said:

Not sure you understand how the "greater-than" and  "less-than" symbols work.......

:-)

 

Meh, begat didn't exactly work either. Technically speaking of course. 😂

[DJL44]

19 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO the fWAR made very little if any difference by the off-season transactions, The new additions just replace our capable in-house players Varland, Alcala, Funderburk, and Sands; took playing time from Kiriloff; took away essential evaluation & testing of players like Miranda & Larnach to see if they have what it takes to belong in the MLB and delayed the promotions of Martin, Cantarino, SWR, Festa etc.

200 innings by Ober, 150 innings by Paddack & any substantial innings by DeSclafani are absurd. I hope management isn't taking any of this seriously & plan accordingly.

They're planning accordingly by keeping all of those capable players in AAA. No opening day roster survives more than a couple weeks without a callup due to injuries. 48 different players (27 pitchers) received playing time for the Twins in 2023.

[arby58]

17 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

2023 vs RHP:
Kirilloff- .300/.373/.485/.858
Santana- .231/.306/.421/.727

Santana's quad-slash the 2 previous years vs righties were .178/.289/.366/.655 in 2022 and .184/.309/.327/.636 in 2021.

I'd say AK reached what we thought last year vs righties. You're taking AK's first 2 injury riddled years and counting those vs Santana's best year by far in 3 years. 

2021-2023 vs RHP:
Kirilloff- .274/.328/.440/.768 and a 112 wRC+
Santana- .200/.302/.372/.675 and a 86 wRC+

So for 2023 Kirilloff beat him by 131 points of OPS and for the 3 year stretch of AK's injury riddled career he's beat him by 93 points of OPS. It's a black hole in comparison.

Kirilloff last year was horrible against LHP - .482 OPS.

[arby58]

43 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Not sure where these numbers are coming from.  He had 1.7 fWAR and 1.6 bWAR.  What concerns me is that the 3 previous he produced a total of 1.2 WAR or an average of .4 WAR. 

Baseball Reference dot com. for WAR.

The rest of the stats are public knowledge - he had a good year last year in terms of HRs, RBIs, OPS+.  Maybe the Twins actually scouted him a bit and went further than looking at prior year stats? 

[chpettit19]

21 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Kirilloff last year was horrible against LHP - .482 OPS.

Correct. But the discussion was about Santana taking ABs from him against righties or Santana hitting against righties at all. Santana has no business hitting against righties. AK needs to be the everyday 1B against righties and Santana needs to enjoy the seeds and gum on the bench.

[Oldtimer]

20 hours ago, cmoss84 said:

I like Funderburk...hope he makes opening day roster. Will be interesting to watch him and Canterino...if he can stay healthy at all. 

Lefty Funderburk belongs on the opening day roster.. Don't understand some of management's off season bullpen acquisitions.

[DJL44]

35 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

2021-2023 vs RHP:
Kirilloff- .274/.328/.440/.768 and a 112 wRC+
Santana- .200/.302/.372/.675 and a 86 wRC+

Kirilloff is going to be in the lineup against RHP or there is really no reason to have him on the roster at all.

At least one relatively weak batter is going to have to play against RHP. That will be one of Margot (2023 694 OPS vs RHP), Santana (727), Jeffers (828) / Vazquez (547), Farmer (687) or Castro (803). It's going to depend on which regular (Kirilloff, Julien, Buxton, Wallner, Kepler) needs a rest day at DH and where they want to upgrade the defense that day. They have a lot of different options depending on matchups and rest.

Note that Jeffers had the best bat against RHP. It will make sense to give him some DH days and start Vazquez for defense against RHP.

Also, expect to see a lot of pinch hitting and defensive replacements this season. They have a lot of defensive flexibility on the bench. Rocco is going to use the whole roster in several games.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Santana has no business hitting against righties

Based on the above sentence... I'm willing to bet that you will be disappointed when it is all said and done. I hate to say that because you are a good guy and you deserve happiness. 😉

I'm willing to bet that Santana faces a lot of right handers.

Barring a significant injury that puts him on the shelf for a long time. I'll set the Over/Under at 250 AB's versus right handers and I will take the over. 

I'll predict that he has twice as many AB's against right handers then he does against left handers. 

If you are right though and the Twins do indeed strap Santana into a Kyle Garlick role. If Santana joins Farmer and Margot. I'm going to chuckle a bit because it will mean that our Twins have $21,500,000 worth of ball players stuffed into the SHORT SIDE.  With all of the discussion of belt tightening... after you take the 8 million that Dodgers included in the Margot trade... the Twins have 21.5 million worth of ball players and 13.5 million of actual money stuffed into the short side. 

That's tightening the belt to make plenty of room for junk food. 😄 

 

 

[chpettit19]

43 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Kirilloff is going to be in the lineup against RHP or there is really no reason to have him on the roster at all.

At least one relatively weak batter is going to have to play against RHP. That will be one of Margot (2023 694 OPS vs RHP), Santana (727), Jeffers (828) / Vazquez (547), Farmer (687) or Castro (803). It's going to depend on which regular (Kirilloff, Julien, Buxton, Wallner, Kepler) needs a rest day at DH and where they want to upgrade the defense that day. They have a lot of different options depending on matchups and rest.

Note that Jeffers had the best bat against RHP. It will make sense to give him some DH days and start Vazquez for defense against RHP.

Also, expect to see a lot of pinch hitting and defensive replacements this season. They have a lot of defensive flexibility on the bench. Rocco is going to use the whole roster in several games.

Yep, I agree with all of that. And it's why I still don't like the Polanco trade. Or their obsession with platooning. They can't possibly imagine Santana is suddenly going to be a worthy 1B/DH bat against righties, or that Farmer, Margot, or Vazquez are going to be worth everyday ABs against them. Are they planning on throwing Castro into a legitimate everyday role? I'd bet Santana everyday is their plan, and I'm not excited about it.

I never understood the need for a right handed hitting OFer. I understood the desire to have Buxton insurance, but never understood the idea that they needed to add a 3rd short-side guy to the roster when they were still short a long-side guy. They will platoon and sub like crazy again. Often times using the entire position player group. I understand that strategy when you're forced into it, but I don't agree with it being the main strategy if you have other options. I think the offense will be very good, but I don't like their obsession with forcing multiple guys who can't hit righties onto the roster.

[Karbo]

2 hours ago, Trov said:

AK numbers against RHP is not that much better than Santana's numbers against RHP.  The difference in OPS from AK career to even Santana last year is only .040 points about, and slugging is only .020 points.  That is not a black hole in comparison. I have high hope for AK but he has yet to show he can reach what we thought. 

Maybe I'm more optimistic about AK. I look at what he has done healthy and I see him as a young guy who is on his way up (hopefully) vs an old guy who is definitely in decline. I'm guessing several other teams see the same thing in Santana or he would have been in higher demand getting a better pay day. After Gallo last year I am very cautious thinking about guys of yesteryear falling off a cliff. I also believe the Twins have so many good players in the minors that need room to make the roster. That's not to say I wouldn't have signed Santana, but if AK is relegated to DH or the bench how are they really going to know what he is capable of.

[chpettit19]

18 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Based on the above sentence... I'm willing to bet that you will be disappointed when it is all said and done. I hate to say that because you are a good guy and you deserve happiness. 😉

I'm willing to bet that Santana faces a lot of right handers.

Barring a significant injury that puts him on the shelf for a long time. I'll set the Over/Under at 250 AB's versus right handers and I will take the over. 

I'll predict that he has twice as many AB's against right handers then he does against left handers. 

If you are right though and the Twins do indeed strap Santana into a Kyle Garlick role. If Santana joins Farmer and Margot. I'm going to chuckle a bit because it will mean that our Twins have $21,500,000 worth of ball players stuffed into the SHORT SIDE.  With all of the discussion of belt tightening... after you take the 8 million that Dodgers included in the Margot trade... the Twins have 21.5 million worth of ball players and 11.5 million of actual money stuffed into the short side. 

That's tightening the belt to make plenty of room for junk food. 😄 

 

 

I'm setting my expectations very low so as to limit my disappointment!

I agree with everything you said. I fully expect Santana to be an everyday player at mostly 1B with some DH mixed in. And I don't like it. Even if Santana isn't as extremely platooned as Farmer and Margot likely are I still consider them to have 21.5 mil stuffed into the short side. Just because he's going to be out there a bunch against righties doesn't mean he isn't still a short-side bat. Bring back Polanco!