4 Former Top Twins Prospects Impacted By the Carlos Santana Signing

[Cody Christie]

The Twins are signing Carlos Santana to add veteran depth at first base and designated hitter. His addition will have roster implications for four former top-100 prospects.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Reports over the weekend have the Twins set to sign Carlos Santana to a one-year, $5.25-million deal. The veteran switch-hitter can fill multiple roles on the Twins roster, but any addition this close to spring training’s start will impact other players on the roster. Minnesota has former top prospects filling multiple roles for next season, and four of them have seen a shift in their projected usage after Santana signs.

Alex Kirilloff
Highest Top-100 Ranking: 18th (Baseball America, 2021)
Fans' last memory of Kirilloff is the diving play he missed at first base in the playoffs against Houston. It was later revealed that he had been dealing with a shoulder injury that required offseason surgery. Kirilloff looked like one of the best-hitting prospects developed in the Twins organization, but he hasn’t lived up to those expectations. Injuries have sidetracked Kirilloff’s professional career, from Tommy John surgery in the minors to wrist and shoulder issues in the big leagues. There are no guarantees that Kirilloff will be 100% healthy in 2024, so Santana adds depth at first base while having more defensive experience at that position. 
Previous Projected Role: Regular first baseman, especially against right-handed starters 
Current Projected Role: Platoon first baseman, with time at DH and corner outfield

José Miranda
Highest Top-100 Ranking: 90th (Baseball America, 2022)
Miranda struggled through a shoulder injury last season (56 OPS+ in 40 games) and saw his spot at third base taken over by Royce Lewis. Minnesota will have 13 position players on the roster, and Santana’s signing limits the available bench spots. Unless an injury occurs, Christian Vázquez, Kyle Farmer, and Willi Castro will occupy three of the four bench spots. Miranda had a chance to make the Opening Day roster as a platoon option at first base, but that changed with Santana’s signing. Miranda will be sent to Triple-A, where he must prove he is healthy and can hit his way back to the big-league level. Miranda still has a place in the team’s long-term plans, but his stock has dropped significantly over the last year. 
Previous Projected Role: Platoon option at first base and designated hitter
Current Projected Role: Depth at Triple-A

Nick Gordon
Highest Top-100 Ranking: 35th (Baseball Prospectus, 2018)
The Twins are quickly running out of roster spots with their moves over the last week, and Gordon is out of minor-league options. As a left-handed bat, he doesn’t offer enough to the roster as a backup outfielder, and the team might not trust him in an infield role. Gordon was one of the team’s lone bright spots in 2022, but he hit .176/.185/.319 with eight extra-base hits in 40 games last season. Gordon deserves a chance to be on a big-league roster, and the Twins only have so many bench spots; he might be left without a seat. Minnesota can try to sneak him through waivers, but another organization would likely claim him. 
Previous Projected Role: Utility Bench Role
Current Projected Role: Out of the organization

Trevor Larnach
Highest Top-100 Ranking: 39th (Baseball America, 2021)
Larnach is in a tough spot entering his age-27 season. The Twins have younger options who have passed him on the organizational depth chart, and he hasn’t shown the ability to claim a big-league role. Since his debut, Larnach has yet to emerge as the powerful hitter the team drafted with their 2018 first-round pick. In nearly 700 plate appearances, he has a 95 OPS+, with struggles against offspeed pitches being his most significant issue. There won’t be room for him on the Opening Day roster, which leaves him trying to break the mold of being a Quadruple-A player who can’t get significant big-league playing time.
Previous Projected Role: Depth at Triple-A
Current Projected Role: Pushed further down the depth chart

Only some top prospects can make it at the big-league level and find sustained success. Last season, the Twins had a trio of rookies perform well, but that group also passed many of the names above in the team’s long-term plans. This quartet of players will get opportunities in 2024 when injuries arise, and it will be critical for them to prove they can live up to their billing as former top prospects. The front office, for their part, needs to be on the lookout for ways to get value out of some of the guys being quietly squeezed out of the picture.

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Which player above will have the most significant impact on the 2024 roster? Will Gordon be in the organization on Opening Day? What’s Larnach’s role moving forward? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[mikelink45]

Larnach and Gordon have the most to lose. I do not see them with a long term role on the team.

Miranda also drops in expectations.  Not sure his performance warrants more than this, but I hope he blazes away in the minors and rises again. 

[Nashvilletwin]

Kiriloff will be just fine if he produces. Santana is on a one year deal, so the long term job is there for the taking. Kiriloff should ultimately probably be more worried about Severino.   In some respects, the second derivative of Santana showing up might be that it actually helps Kiriloff by taking some of the pressure off and giving him a chance to find his feet.   Regardless, Kiriloff will get as many ABs this season as he deserves.

Larnach and Miranda, sadly, are now (valuable from the FO’s perspective) AAA bench depth in case of injuries.  It’s not clear where they even stand on that hierarchy of players considering their competition for promotions include Lee, Martin, Severino, Keirsey and maybe Bubba.  If they’d like to see Target field again they’d better produce across the river.  Both are probably dying to be traded to get a shot at playing every day in the bigs (ala Steer); unfortunately for them, the FO probably will struggle to find a deal that returns a valuable MLB proficient player to replace their important AAA depth role. They might be here a while.

Gordon will get his chance in spring training. But, yes, more and more he looks like the odd man out.  He won’t make it through waivers. I really like Gordon - he was the spark plug that led our 2nd half in 2022.  However, it will be a surprise if he has not departed the organization by early May, if not before opening day.  This spring training is important for him as it might essentially be his “tryout” for a major league job elsewhere.

[Ricky Vaughn]

Kirilloff is the only one of the four that I have any confidence will have a future with the Twins. I think Gorden gets claimed off the wavier wire, and Larnach and Miranda get included in trades. I just don't see any place for those three to get playing time.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I see Gordon as having the most to lose, in terms of a numbers game. Larnach and Miranda both have options, so there is still opportunity for them to find their footing this season. Kirilloff, if healthy, will get every opportunity to perform.

The interesting thing to me is what will happen IF everyone is healthy AND Brooks Lee is ready. 

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I see Gordon as having the most to lose, in terms of a numbers game. Larnach and Miranda both have options, so there is still opportunity for them to find their footing this season. Kirilloff, if healthy, will get every opportunity to perform.

The interesting thing to me is what will happen IF everyone is healthy AND Brooks Lee is ready. 

At that point, the FO will probably start shopping guys for prospects or package some players together to get another ace SP. either way, the team will improve. 

[roger]

The Twins don't have a lot of depth ready for the corner outfield spots.  Castro is their super utility guy, and Larnach is at AAA.  With this signing, they could play Santana a lot at first base with AK moving to either left or right.  So I see this signing as a big boost to their depth at first base and the corner outfield spots.

With one spot available, looks to me like Gordon gets it, unless he has a terrible spring and one of Miranda or Larnach has a HUGE spring.  Would be surprised if any of this trio would bring much back in a trade, hopefully, either Miranda or Larnach has a nice first half with either the Twins or Saints and either secure a role with the Twins or gain another teams notice.

[gman]

I don't see Gordon on the Twins roster at the end of spring training. Larnach and Miranda are depth in 3A to start the year and will be injury replacements or bench bats when they get up. I don't see Larnach on the roster at the end of the season. Kirilloff will play most every day and probably bat in the 3 to 5 spots, with the occasional off day against a tough lefty. Santana won't play as much as people seem to be suggesting, I'm guessing less than 100 games. His bat seemed to have slowed last year.

[Drtwins]

Gordon will be on the opening day roster unless he's injured, Carlos Santana's signing has no impact on him. Santana is a 1st baseman and DH. Gordon will be the 13th man and fill a super utility role. I agree that he'll likely be gone at some point in the season, but they aren't going through arbitration with him currently if the plan was to just let him go.

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, roger said:

The Twins don't have a lot of depth ready for the corner outfield spots.  Castro is their super utility guy, and Larnach is at AAA.  With this signing, they could play Santana a lot at first base with AK moving to either left or right.  So I see this signing as a big boost to their depth at first base and the corner outfield spots.

With one spot available, looks to me like Gordon gets it, unless he has a terrible spring and one of Miranda or Larnach has a HUGE spring.  Would be surprised if any of this trio would bring much back in a trade, hopefully, either Miranda or Larnach has a nice first half with either the Twins or Saints and either secure a role with the Twins or gain another teams notice.

Agree 100%. Our overall outfield depth is not great.  Thus,  Gordon has a good chance to stick around a bit.  If we run into a need, Kiriloff can be that fill-in outfielder.  And if Severino starts smoking it, Kiriloff may find himself in that role more often than he probably would hope (but he’d still be in the show).

[chpettit19]

Confused on who the 13th guy is on the position player roster if it's not Miranda, Gordon, or Larnach. We have the 8 assumed starters, Santana, and 3 of 4 bench spots as the situation presented in the article. Who's the 4th bench spot going to if it isn't one of these 3 guys? Don't think they're carrying 3 catchers so Camargo is out. Are they going to cut Gordon to get Martin, Severino, or Rodriguez on their opening day bench?

I don't think the Santana signing effects Gordon in any way. I think Gordon remains the 13th position player on the team at this point. Another signing would push him off the roster, but this one doesn't.

[stringer bell]

IMHO Nick Gordon isn't the super utility guy, Willi Castro is. Willi is probably the preferred choice to fill in at second, left or center and certainly against left handed pitching. Castro is a better shortstop than Gordon and better at third base. 

So, the position in play is really fourth outfielder. That rules out Miranda unless there is another vacancy and leaves the competition for the spot between Larnach, Gordon and Martin. Larnach has the superior power profile, but hits left handed as Kepler and Wallner do, and he doesn't play center field. Martin hasn't seen a major league pitch, but hits right handed and can play in the infield, probably second base only. Gordon has flashed good offense in 2022, can also play second base, and is out of options. Gordon probably "wins" on Opening Day unless Larnach or Martin really impress in the spring. 

If Martin makes it to the majors in the first half of the year, he could end Gordon's time with the Twins if he shows he is a capable hitter and outfielder at the MLB level. 

[DocBauer]

Now that his wrist is taken care of, I have a lot of confidence Kirilloff is going to begin to shine. His numbers in 319 PA were just fine. Now, let's get him over this shoulder injury and have him available for a full season.

IMO, the Twins are going to re-unite with Taylor, or bring on one of Duvall or Pham in the next few days. Different players, but all fit on their own way. That leaves Gordon without a job unless someone is hurt. Betting he's got enough interest out there to snag an A ball prospect of some sort.

Miranda and Larnach open at St Paul and wait for opportunity. Miranda is just not as bad as he looked last season. Larnach has flashed at times, and IIRC he finished 2023 pretty strong for the Saints. Does he finally start to put it together for the Twins...or someone else...in 2024? 

Nice duo to have in reserve. 

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, gman said:

I don't see Gordon on the Twins roster at the end of spring training. Larnach and Miranda are depth in 3A to start the year and will be injury replacements or bench bats when they get up. I don't see Larnach on the roster at the end of the season. Kirilloff will play most every day and probably bat in the 3 to 5 spots, with the occasional off day against a tough lefty. Santana won't play as much as people seem to be suggesting, I'm guessing less than 100 games. His bat seemed to have slowed last year.

I agree. It begs the question, who gets the most DH starts over the course of the season? 

[Riverbrian]

My guess: 

We still have the DH position to play with. 

Kirilloff should feel no impact from the Santana signing with the exception of having to play some OF on occasion. 

Gordon won't be impacted by the Santana signing... Gordon would be impacted by Miranda and Martin because we are still short a right handed hitting hand cuff for Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner... Unless of course the plan is for Santana to act as that short side platoon which... I don't know... I don't think he will be.  

Miranda won't be impacted by the Santana signing... Miranda will be most impacted by the sin of having options left. He can be stashed for injury call up. 

Larnach won't be impacted by the Santana signing... Larnach will be impacted by having an option left and not quite doing what we hope he could do so far. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

I could see Larnach or Gordon getting traded but I doubt it's in a package for a MLB starting pitcher. I think it's a lot more likely that they get traded for someone farther down in a struggling organization like Oakland who has at least two options left, maybe an A ball pitching type.  Gordon will go if we sign Taylor or Duvall (Pham makes no sense) and Larnach may go as the season wears on. 

[sftwinsfan]

Gordon will be on the team (unless traded) on opening day, outside of just being terrible in training camp. I don't think they offer him arbitration if that wasn't the plan. I know, not a ton of money, but they're pinching pennies like it's the late 90's lately. What role they have in store, I have no clue, Castro is probably better in the same role. Again, another LH hitter, no real point in plugging him in at 2B, LF or RF for Julien, Wallner or Kepler against a tough lefty. Has never been a big enough bat to consider at DH. 

Larnach is in a tough spot, one of way too many LH hitters that can play the OF. His best shot is probably being traded to a non-contender that will just play him and he doesn't have to look over his shoulder after a bad 2 week stretch and gets the chance to make the adjustments at the MLB level. 

Miranda I'd say is most impacted. His most likely chance was to be a RH bat backing up 1B and maybe 2B, occasional DH. Santana takes up two of those. Outside of injury I see him at AAA.

Kirilloff should only be slightly impacted as long as he can stay healthy and produce. This is the make it or break it year for him. Last year, he was coming off multiple years of the wrist thing and nobody knew if that surgery would work. He didn't do too bad when out there. As long as the shoulder thing is in the past, maybe he can settle in and show us what made him one of the top prospects. 

[PatPfund]

Not sure Santana affects Gordon at all; he was skating on thin ice before, and he still is. I think he'd have to have a really good spring (as Castro did last year) to make the team, and either way, he is an OF now for the most part.

Kirilloff will either be healthy (like he was winning AL Player of the Week last year) and play a lot, or he won't, and neither likely have anything to do with Santana. With a relatively normal-ish offseason that didn't involve experimental surgery, I like his odds.

Oh, and this just in. Santana is in DEEP decline as an offensive weapon at 1B, and with the Twins wasting 5+million on him, Carlos is likely to win this year's Joey Gallo Project/Roadblock-To-Actual Talent Award. I suspect he will continue getting older and worser, but the Twins will cling to him long after his expiration date (which I suspect was a year or two ago). They could have gone with Miranda or Severino (who may both be better right now that the remains of Santana) and banked the money for a good starting pitcher (either now or at the deadline).

[Doctor Gast]

We have a lot of players on this club who need to prove themselves & take that step. Signing Santana affected the 4 you mentioned but also signing all those poke-and-hope backend pitchers that will be given every opportunity to prove themselves over Varland who has already proven himself & pitchers like Canterino, SWR, Festa etc, who are very close, will be held up. You could argue that Balazovik was pushed out prematurely before being given the chance to prove himself in spring training. Just to give the fanbase the impression they are doing something.

Miranda has proven himself that he's a MLB hitter who can platoon at 1B/ DH for years. Santana has made him obsolete & worth very little in trade. IMO Miranda is the much better option in the soon-to-be and long run. Santana is like Gallo where he'd serve a non-important purpose in the beginning of the season but ends up as a waste of money.

Kiriloff will break out to be the hopefully primary 1Bman that can play RF & DH. Gordon & Larnachs' playing time lies squarely on themselves & how the other OFers shake out. IMO the OF Gordon will do well but if they keep experimenting w/ the INF Gordon, he's DFA'd. I hope that Larnach can adjust to the off-speed pitches & flourish. Odds are that Gordon will be the odd man out & be traded if everything else doesn't blow up. Meaning, Buxton's health & Kepler able to adjust to the pitchers adjusting to him.

[MinnInPa]

lets just pray that AK finally stays healthy..and we see him playing somewhere in the lineup every day..be it 1B, LF or DH. I personally would rather have seen them resign Solano..dont see Santana helping at all

[Otaknam]

22 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Kiriloff will be just fine if he produces. Santana is on a one year deal, so the long term job is there for the taking. Kiriloff should ultimately probably be more worried about Severino.   In some respects, the second derivative of Santana showing up might be that it actually helps Kiriloff by taking some of the pressure off and giving him a chance to find his feet.   Regardless, Kiriloff will get as many ABs this season as he deserves.

Larnach and Miranda, sadly, are now (valuable from the FO’s perspective) AAA bench depth in case of injuries.  It’s not clear where they even stand on that hierarchy of players considering their competition for promotions include Lee, Martin, Severino, Keirsey and maybe Bubba.  If they’d like to see Target field again they’d better produce across the river.  Both are probably dying to be traded to get a shot at playing every day in the bigs (ala Steer); unfortunately for them, the FO probably will struggle to find a deal that returns a valuable MLB proficient player to replace their important AAA depth role. They might be here a while.

Gordon will get his chance in spring training. But, yes, more and more he looks like the odd man out.  He won’t make it through waivers. I really like Gordon - he was the spark plug that led our 2nd half in 2022.  However, it will be a surprise if he has not departed the organization by early May, if not before opening day.  This spring training is important for him as it might essentially be his “tryout” for a major league job elsewhere.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Gordon is traded before the season starts. Castro has bypassed him based on last year, and provided more speed too. Also Martin may make the roster and has options.

[Cris E]

Kirilloff will be fine if he's healthy, or he won't.  It's on him, as he's got a clear open window to step up and claim his spot. Many guys never get a chance as clean as this one, so I hope he's ready.

I could easily see the FO trading Gordon to an org that is thin in CF for a bag of balls and lunch money (which is to say a 19 year old "live arm".) It'll be a sign of how great an organization we are and how much we care for our guys, and free agents will talk about it next winter when they sign $2.0m deals to be part of this clubhouse.

Miranda won't be traded even if he spends the whole year in St Paul. We don't have many RH bats near ready in the org and he can use this season to reset as a 1B/OF/DH to be ready when Santana leaves or fails or whatever. He has been the type of guy they like so he only needs to return to level after injury, and that's easy to imagine happening this year.

Larnach is the one I have trouble seeing a future for.  They'll certainly leave him in St Paul to work on things, but ERod is coming and other callow youth are on his heels. Even if there are injuries Martin has passed him for the next shot at a long term gig in the outfield. So unless he figures out a lot this year and hits the living bejesus out of the ball there's a real and frightening chance he's going to be on the Balakvoizspelling career path in a couple years.

[stringer bell]

2 hours ago, MinnInPa said:

lets just pray that AK finally stays healthy..and we see him playing somewhere in the lineup every day..be it 1B, LF or DH. I personally would rather have seen them resign Solano..dont see Santana helping at all

I know we're all committed to the deeper stats like exit velocity and launch angle, but 23 homers would have been second on the Twins last year and 86 RBI was 20 more than a Twin has accumulated in a season since 2021. If Santana is 90% of what he was in '23, he'll help this club.

[Heiny]

I think that if the Twins could trade Gordon it would have been done by now.  I don't think anybody feels like Gordon could help their team.  He may have to be included in a larger package.  Package may also include Larnach.  I had really high hopes and expectations for Larnach but I am starting to sour considering he will be 27 years old.  I still think he could help a team and hit some massive homers, but I think his time with the Twins will be coming to an end soon.  Martin needs to get a chance in the  big leagues and I think Miranda needs another chance also when healthy.  All of the above could do themselves a huge favor by going off big in spring training.  Well,  I guess that is why we are so interested.  Let the battles begin.