Should the Twins Pursue Slugger Jorge Soler to Beef Up Lineup?

[Hunter McCall]

With a little newfound wiggle room in the payroll, could the Twins push to sign Jorge Soler to add outfield flexibility?

Image courtesy of © Jonathan Hui-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins finally made an offseason splash on Monday night, when they sent Jorge Polanco to the Seattle Mariners for a four-player package. In doing so, the team gained enough financial flexibility to focus on what is left of the free agent market. Jorge Soler is one intriguing name remaining on the market who could fit in well with the Twins.

According to Do-Hyoung Park at MLB.com, Derek Falvey indicated following the trade that the team will now turn its attention to the position player side of the roster. In the article, Park also mentions that Falvey admitted adding outfield depth flexibility is high on the list of priorities. Soler checks most of the boxes the Twins desire.

Coming off a monster 2023 season, Soler declined his option with the Marlins and tested the free-agent market. Soler’s projected contract, per The Athletic, was three years and $45 million, which comes out to $15 million annually. Following the Polanco trade, this contract isn’t too far out of the Twins' spending range, and there are rumors that a “mystery team” has entered the Soler market. Does Soler fit with the Twins, and could they create enough financial flexibility to pursue a deal?

Losing Polanco leaves a minor hole in the Twins lineup. If Byron Buxton plans on playing center field (as he says he does), the Twins need a guy to slot in as the primary DH. Signing Soler would help solve many minor problems with their outfield depth. On a day where the Twins are facing a right-handed pitcher with Buxton playing center field, Soler would DH. When Buxton needs a day off or moves to DH, Soler could play a corner spot, and Max Kepler or Willi Castro could play center field. As Lou Hennessy wrote earlier this month, Soler mashes left-handed pitching, so on days when the team faces a lefty, he could take over corner duties for Matt Wallner. This type of flexibility and platoon possibilities fit the Twins' preferred roster construction.

As mentioned before, Soler had a great 2023 season. Among the best parts about Soler’s game is his ability to provide elite power and on-base percentage to a lineup, without a sky-high strikeout rate. While his 24.3% strikeout rate was still in the bottom third of the league, his 11.4% walk rate and 36 home runs were more than enough to make up for the whiffs. For comparison’s sake, Joey Gallo had a 42.8% strikeout rate with a 14.5% walk rate in 2023. Adding a guy who can supply the power and on-base skills the Twins covet without adding a high strikeout percentage would be a significant upgrade to a team that set the major-league record for strikeouts in 2023.

On top of his excellent on-base skills, Soler also fits the Twins' preferred batting profile. In 2023, Twins hitters were 4th in the league in average launch angle, at 14 degrees. With an average launch angle of 17.7 degrees in 2023, Soler fits this philosophical mold. The Twins tend to look for guys who can pull the ball in the air, and Soler also checks this box.

While Soler appears to be a great fit, the Twins still have to find a way to make it work. According to our best info, the Twins have about $11 million available in the budget that they’re willing to spend, as they are expected to lower the payroll from previous years. As mentioned, Soler could cost around $15 million per season, though it might be too late in the offseason for him to get any more than that or to find that third or fourth year he's been seeking. The Twins will either have to shed more payroll or get creative with the potential contract to get a deal done.

The first option is to move more money to make room for Soler. The most obvious way to do this is to find a suitable trade partner for Kyle Farmer. While Farmer does provide a fine platoon option in the infield, it may not be enough to justify paying him $6.5 million. Farmer’s market (pun intended) may be thin, but the primary purpose of moving him would be to dump his contract. If they were to find a team who need an infielder and has a bit more certainty about their TV deal for this season, they should be able to trade him. Doing this would clear up more than enough space to sign Soler. In Farmer’s absence, the Twins could turn to the switch-hitting Castro or Yunior Severino as potential platoon options at second base, or speed the promotion of Brooks Lee.

Another way to make a deal work is to backload a potential contract. If they are cutting the payroll due to potential losses in TV money, they could still sign Soler to a three-year, $45-million contract, but instead of paying $15 million every year, they could structure the deal to pay less now, more later. For example, the Twins could give Soler $11 million in 2024, $15 million in 2025, and $19 million in 2026. If the team plans to increase the budget again once the TV mess is settled, this could be a possible solution. Again, since it's now February, maybe the third year isn't even needed. Perhaps $17 million in 2025 (with an opt-out) would be enough.

It’s hard not to consider Jorge Soler a really nice fit for the Twins. Though his defense is subpar, he would provide enough defensive flexibility while adding a big bat to a deep lineup. Even if the TV situation doesn’t get resolved and the Twins decide to cut down on spending, there are ways they can get something done. A move like this would earn the Twins another offseason gold star and deliver a noticeable improvement from the 2023 roster.

Should the Twins pursue Jorge Soler? What are your thoughts? Let me know in the comments! Go, Twins!

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[Muppet]

If they are keeping Kepler and Soler never has to play right field, then yes. Do it. 

[Riverbrian]

Budget aside... and you really can't throw the budget aside. 

Yes

We need a big bat

24% K Rate with those numbers

The answer is absolutely Yes

However... He must play in the field. 

We will need the DH spot for rotation. 

[pierre75275]

Couple of things. Kepler isn't going to be an option to play center. Soler can't play center or first base.  The Twins currently have other options for center ( Castro and Gordon) and first base ( possibly Julien, Farmer, and Vazquez and Miranda) all of which come with question marks.

I would prefer Adam Duvall, who also mashes lefties, could be had on a one yr deal, would be cheaper, and can play all 3 outfield positions plus first base.

I have no issue with Soler, but I would fear he would take away at bats from Wallner and I think, based on what the front office has said, Duvall would be a better fit.

[Nashvilletwin]

Bingo!  This is our guy: power, right handed, corner OF/DH

Outfield depth chart: Buxton, Kepler, Wallner, Castro, Soler

Infield depth chart: Lewis, Correa, Julien, Kiriloff, Farmer

Catching depth chart: Jeffers, Vasquez

Roving utility player (incl. CF): Gordon (who is out of options) or Martin

That’s 13 position players.

It would be nice if Soler could play some 1B (which, we know from Moneyball is not difficult, lol).

Regardless, Soler plays pretty much everyday - DH against righties and LF or RF against lefties.

Sign him without moving Farmer.  Soler is an instant hedge on Kepler - so we can move Kepler by the deadline if we really need the cash. Besides, Kepler is gone next year anyway so he pretty much just replaces Kepler’s salary in ‘25 and ‘26.  We then have a solid RH power corner outfielder to allow time for Rodriguez, Gonzales, and Jenkins to develop.

This is the move.  Boy, it’s great to see a plan come together….

[tony&rodney]

19 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Budget aside... and you really can't throw the budget aside. 

Yes

We need a big bat

24% K Rate with those numbers

The answer is absolutely Yes

However... He must play in the field. 

We will need the DH spot for rotation. 

Agree. Will Soler sign for the money saved by trading Polanco? Hmmm.

[Nashvilletwin]

16 minutes ago, pierre75275 said:

Couple of things. Kepler isn't going to be an option to play center. Soler can't play center or first base.  The Twins currently have other options for center ( Castro and Gordon) and first base ( possibly Julien, Farmer, and Vazquez and Miranda) all of which come with question marks.

I would prefer Adam Duvall, who also mashes lefties, could be had on a one yr deal, would be cheaper, and can play all 3 outfield positions plus first base.

I have no issue with Soler, but I would fear he would take away at bats from Wallner and I think, based on what the front office has said, Duvall would be a better fit.

DH against righties - 2/3rds of starts.  Can spell Wallner or Kepler against lefties (depending on who is swinging a hotter bat) - so Wallner won’t lose that many AB’s. Btw, Castro probably starts in CF against lefties (to give Buxton’s legs a rest) and Buxton gets DH time in those cases (so opposite Soler).

[Riverbrian]

5 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Agree. Will Soler sign for the money saved by trading Polanco? Hmmm.

The only clue that I have and I don't even know if it is a clue or just a unrelated bloody sock left nearby.  

He hasn't signed yet. That's the only clue that I have. 

I assume that because he is still on the board in February it is because his agent is trying to not sign cheaply.  

[Nashvilletwin]

Wow, I’m just thinking about turning Polanco into Soler, Topa, DeSclafini, Gonzalez, and Bowen - all essentially from the Mariners.  Even I’d have to give the FO credit for that 3D chess.

[Hunter McCall]

59 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Budget aside... and you really can't throw the budget aside. 

Yes

We need a big bat

24% K Rate with those numbers

The answer is absolutely Yes

However... He must play in the field. 

We will need the DH spot for rotation. 

Agreed. He has to be able to play the field. JD Martinez is great but his inability to play the field would severely handcuff the Twins especially with the uncertainty of Buxton playing the field.

[Hunter McCall]

51 minutes ago, pierre75275 said:

Couple of things. Kepler isn't going to be an option to play center. Soler can't play center or first base.  The Twins currently have other options for center ( Castro and Gordon) and first base ( possibly Julien, Farmer, and Vazquez and Miranda) all of which come with question marks.

I would prefer Adam Duvall, who also mashes lefties, could be had on a one yr deal, would be cheaper, and can play all 3 outfield positions plus first base.

I have no issue with Soler, but I would fear he would take away at bats from Wallner and I think, based on what the front office has said, Duvall would be a better fit.

Duvall just doesn't have the same optimistic outlook in his batting profile. His StatCast page is very underwhelming. They can make it work with a part time center fielder. Maybe Austin Martin even gets added to the mix out there. One thing they do need is an impact bat and Soler will be that and I'm not convinced Duvall will be.

[DJL44]

They have a two year need for this kind of player (there is no RH power bat OF in AAA) so a 2-year contract doesn't bother me. It will take more than just the $8M saved in the Polanco deal to get Soler but they're about $40M below last year's payroll at the moment so the money shouldn't be a problem unless they have a high-priced starting pitcher they're targeting for a potential trade.

There are a lot of free agent options for a RH bat (Soler, Pham, Duvall, Martinez, Merrifield, Grichuk, Solano). Picking the right one is important. Soler is the youngest option and an offense-first option. He's also the one you would want to use as a full-time starter rather than just a bench player.

[MMMordabito]

I'm on board with this only if Buxton is either regular CF or on the IL.   

A regular outfield of Soler - Castro - Wallner or, slightly less so, Soler - Castro - Kepler with Gimpy Buxton at DH,  while either Wallner or Kepler rides the pine, would be a defensive disaster for our flyball prone pitchers.

Soler OF 241 Innings (-3 OAA, -22.1 UZR/150)

Castro CF 261 Innings (-1 OAA, -19.1 UZR/150)

Wallner OF 487 Innings (-4 OAA, -0.4 UZR/150)

Kepler RF 972 Innings (4 OAA, 6.3 UZR/150)

 

[Hunter McCall]

37 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

DH against righties - 2/3rds of starts.  Can spell Wallner or Kepler against lefties (depending on who is swinging a hotter bat) - so Wallner won’t lose that many AB’s. Btw, Castro probably starts in CF against lefties (to give Buxton’s legs a rest) and Buxton gets DH time in those cases (so opposite Soler).

Agree with this. The flexibility it gives the team is clear. Soler is the best available option in my opinion and I think the Twins can make it work if they really want to, which they should.

[Hunter McCall]

31 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Wow, I’m just thinking about turning Polanco into Soler, Topa, DeSclafini, Gonzalez, and Bowen - all essentially from the Mariners.  Even I’d have to give the FO credit for that 3D chess.

Soler was with the Marlins, but yes, in my opinion, this would put the offseason at a B+. Only knock is come playoff time they could really use a second horse in the stable to pair with Pablo Lopez. That could be acquired at the deadline though. As it stands, the rotation is plenty good enough to win in the regular season.

Edited February 1, 2024 by Hunter McCall

[Hunter McCall]

3 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

I'm on board with this only if Buxton is either regular CF or on the IL.   

A regular outfield of Soler - Castro - Wallner or, slightly less so, Soler - Castro - Kepler with Gimpy Buxton at DH,  while either Wallner or Kepler rides the pine, would be a defensive disaster for our flyball prone pitchers.

Soler OF 241 Innings (-3 OAA, -22.1 UZR/150)

Castro CF 261 Innings (-1 OAA, -19.1 UZR/150)

Wallner OF 487 Innings (-4 OAA, -0.4 UZR/150)

Kepler RF 972 Innings (4 OAA, 6.3 UZR/150)

 

Oh yes, I agree. I didn't talk too much about it but Soler is certainly not a great fielder. His bat is what you are paying for. He's still good enough to play there part time while being the team's primary DH. One can't say the same about JD Martinez, which is why I prefer Soler. That and Soler strikes out less frequently while providing similar on-base and power abilities.

[jorgenswest]

He wants three years. He probably isn’t getting that offer yet.

Should we expect that his age 32-34 season will be as productive as his age 29-31 seasons? Some work ethic freaks like Cruz and Martinez defy expectations and play better in their 30s. Is that Soler’s reputation?

Over 1488 plate appearances ages 29-31 he slashed 230/322/457 for an OPS+ of 109. All of his RF defensive metrics over the three years are well in the negatives without a single positive number in any year any metric.

Is it reasonable to expect the OPS+ of 109 to decline some? Will he be playable in the outfield?

I think JD Martinez is the better hitter next year. I would prefer him and try to get him to a contract similar to the one they gave Cruz. I want the better hitter and would give up the occasional flexibility of the poor RF Soler can offer. 

[Hunter McCall]

4 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

He wants three years. He probably isn’t getting that offer yet.

Should we expect that his age 32-34 season will be as productive as his age 29-31 seasons? Some work ethic freaks like Cruz and Martinez defy expectations and play better in their 30s. Is that Soler’s reputation?

Over 1488 plate appearances ages 29-31 he slashed 230/322/457 for an OPS+ of 109. All of his RF defensive metrics over the three years are well in the negatives without a single positive number in any year any metric.

Is it reasonable to expect the OPS+ of 109 to decline some? Will he be playable in the outfield?

I think JD Martinez is the better hitter next year. I would prefer him and try to get him to a contract similar to the one they gave Cruz. I want the better hitter and would give up the occasional flexibility of the poor RF Soler can offer. 

Martinez is a great hitter, he just doesn't provide an option for flexibility like Soler does. When healthy, Soler has always been really good, especially since he cut down on his strikeout rate. No he doesn't have a great glove but there's far worse defenders. I don't know that it's fair to expect a drop off from Soler when there's really nothing to indicate an upcoming regression. Actually, wouldn't you be more worried about regression coming from the guy who will be 37 by the end of the season? I think there's a far better track record of hitters maintaining power at Soler's age than Martinez'.

[tony&rodney]

53 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Wow, I’m just thinking about turning Polanco into Soler, Topa, DeSclafini, Gonzalez, and Bowen - all essentially from the Mariners.  Even I’d have to give the FO credit for that 3D chess.

Soler will sign for the money (@$5M) saved by trading Polanco? Do it.

[EGFTShaw]

First, I loved Polanco.

Second, we don't necessarily have a hole because we traded Polanco. Stop with this storyline.  We needed a right-handed bat last year and we had Polanco.

That said, if we can find Cruz type DH with the ability to produce on the field and be a leader in the dugout, let's do it.  

But I am also on board in giving every opportunity to our young guns and for once we seem to have a fully loaded system of young guns.

I don't think we will get Soler on our budget.

I do NOT want a Joey Gallo 2.0 either.

[Hunter McCall]

1 minute ago, EGFTShaw said:

First, I loved Polanco.

Second, we don't necessarily have a hole because we traded Polanco. Stop with this storyline.  We needed a right-handed bat last year and we had Polanco.

That said, if we can find Cruz type DH with the ability to produce on the field and be a leader in the dugout, let's do it.  

But I am also on board in giving every opportunity to our young guns and for once we seem to have a fully loaded system of young guns.

I don't think we will get Soler on our budget.

I do NOT want a Joey Gallo 2.0 either.

We have a hole. There's no DH. You can't go into the season relying on Jose Miranda to be your every day DH and having to play Willi Castro there handcuffs the lineup. There's the hole. Yes they need a right handed bat. Soler is not Joey Gallo 2.0. I actually compared the two's numbers right above if you care to read about it. Soler strikes out at only a 24% rate compared to Gallo's almost 43%.

Adding a guy like Nelson Cruz as you suggest does very little to help the issue with outfield flexibility. If they sign a guy, lets just say JD Martinez, who can only DH, and Buxton decides he can't play the field, you're in some trouble. At least if you sign Soler, he can play in the outfield. In my opinion you won't find a better fit for the Twins than Jorge Soler.

[RpR]

Minnesota Twins Suddenly Eager to Spend in Free Agency and Falvey is Eyeing Up Outfielders

Minnesota Twins Suddenly Eager to Spend in Free Agency and Falvey is Eyeing Up Outfielders (msn.com)

Following the departure of longtime 2nd baseman Jorge Polanco on Monday, the Minnesota Twins suddenly find themselves with even more financial flexibility this offseason; $6.5 million to be exact. The Twins have already said they plan to take that money and put it back into the roster.

Minnesota Twins looking to spend… on Adam Duvall?

According to Dan Hayes (the Athletic), the Twins may be eyeing some free agent names that baseball fans might actually recognize. Among the speculated targets is 35-year-old outfielder, Adam Duvall, and others.

 

Adam Duvall emerges as one of the top free agents this offseason. Despite being 35 years old, his impressive track record includes being a former All-Star (2016) and Gold Glove winner (2021). Last season, he showcased his productivity in 92 games for the Red Sox, tallying 21 home runs, 58 RBIs, and an .834 OPS.....

 

[EGFTShaw]

13 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

We have a hole. There's no DH. You can't go into the season relying on Jose Miranda to be your every day DH and having to play Willi Castro there handcuffs the lineup. There's the hole. Yes they need a right handed bat. Soler is not Joey Gallo 2.0. I actually compared the two's numbers right above if you care to read about it. Soler strikes out at only a 24% rate compared to Gallo's almost 43%.

Adding a guy like Nelson Cruz as you suggest does very little to help the issue with outfield flexibility. If they sign a guy, lets just say JD Martinez, who can only DH, and Buxton decides he can't play the field, you're in some trouble. At least if you sign Soler, he can play in the outfield. In my opinion you won't find a better fit for the Twins than Jorge Soler.

It is not a hole caused by the Polanco trade.  Polanco has never been our everyday DH and there were no plans to make him our everyday DH.

 

[Hunter McCall]

2 minutes ago, EGFTShaw said:

It is not a hole caused by the Polanco trade.  Polanco has never been our everyday DH and there were no plans to make him our everyday DH.

 

No, but with Polanco, they had an extra bat they could use at DH every day. Whoever wasn't playing the field would rotate in at DH and still supply a good bat to the lineup. Without Polanco, the options are no longer there. The only bench guy left that isn't a utility or catcher is Jose Miranda. As I mentioned, you can't trust him until he proves you can.

I agree Polanco was never going to be the everyday DH but without him, they have 8 trustworthy every day hitters. Adding Soler would give them 9.

[chpettit19]

I think this all comes down to price. How much do the Twins actually have to spend? If it's just the 5+ cleared in the Polanco deal there's really not anything I'd be excited about available. If they're taking that 5 and adding it to another 5-10ish that they had available already then I'm in on some guys. Soler would be my #1 target if there's available funds for him. 3 years, 45 mil would be a deal I'd sign for sure on him if that's what it takes. 

I want nothing to do with Buxton as primary DH. If he can't play CF regularly put him on the IL. I wouldn't love the lack of flexibility from JD, but I'd take him on a 1 year deal if they're not willing to do any multi-year deals for Soler. If they think JD has another year in him at what he did last year he'd be a significantly better hitter in the DH spot than cycling through other guys. If they still had Polanco I'd be on board with the cycling through idea, but at this point cycling through is just putting lesser hitters into the lineup.

If they bring in Soler because they were able to free up just enough money in the Polanco deal I'll have a much better opinion of the Polanco deal. Let's see what they can do.

[Hunter McCall]

11 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

As DJL44 indicated, you have other candidates here (Soler, Pham, Duvall, Martinez, Merrifield, Grichuk, Solano).  I like Soler, but not at that price.  I think that the FO should prioritize this list and wait this out some more to get a favorable deal.

Soler's just so much more valuable than every player on that list and won't require a super long-term commitment. If the Twins sign him to a two or three year deal, they will have both Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins knocking on the doors of Target Field by the time his contract expires. He solves many problems and gives them much more production and flexibility than anyone else on the list you mentioned. This is why I think he's the perfect fit.

[Hunter McCall]

17 minutes ago, RpR said:

Minnesota Twins Suddenly Eager to Spend in Free Agency and Falvey is Eyeing Up Outfielders

Minnesota Twins Suddenly Eager to Spend in Free Agency and Falvey is Eyeing Up Outfielders (msn.com)

Following the departure of longtime 2nd baseman Jorge Polanco on Monday, the Minnesota Twins suddenly find themselves with even more financial flexibility this offseason; $6.5 million to be exact. The Twins have already said they plan to take that money and put it back into the roster.

Minnesota Twins looking to spend… on Adam Duvall?

According to Dan Hayes (the Athletic), the Twins may be eyeing some free agent names that baseball fans might actually recognize. Among the speculated targets is 35-year-old outfielder, Adam Duvall, and others.

 

Adam Duvall emerges as one of the top free agents this offseason. Despite being 35 years old, his impressive track record includes being a former All-Star (2016) and Gold Glove winner (2021). Last season, he showcased his productivity in 92 games for the Red Sox, tallying 21 home runs, 58 RBIs, and an .834 OPS.....

 

I personally would be pretty disappointed if the Twins went with Duvall over Soler just to save a couple bucks. These should speak for themselves:

Adam Duvall: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/adam-duvall-594807?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

Jorge Soler: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jorge-soler-624585?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

[cmoss84]

If we can sign Merrifield on the cheap (1/5 or 2/10), I would love having his flexibility and mentoring abilities for our young homies. He can play any outfield position or could fill in at 2B or even 1B if needed. Still a solid hitter with solid speed as well.  

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Hunter McCall said:

Martinez is a great hitter, he just doesn't provide an option for flexibility like Soler does. When healthy, Soler has always been really good, especially since he cut down on his strikeout rate. No he doesn't have a great glove but there's far worse defenders. I don't know that it's fair to expect a drop off from Soler when there's really nothing to indicate an upcoming regression. Actually, wouldn't you be more worried about regression coming from the guy who will be 37 by the end of the season? I think there's a far better track record of hitters maintaining power at Soler's age than Martinez'.

Soler for one year or three? One is OK.

Wasn’t he pretty healthy in 2021? He had 604 PAs and an uninspiring wRC+ of 100.

[RpR]

7 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

I personally would be pretty disappointed if the Twins went with Duvall over Soler just to save a couple bucks. These should speak for themselves:

Adam Duvall: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/adam-duvall-594807?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

Jorge Soler: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jorge-soler-624585?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

Soler is a gaping hole in the outfield.!