Should the Twins Pursue Slugger Jorge Soler to Beef Up Lineup?

[Hunter McCall]

3 minutes ago, RpR said:

Soler is a gaping hole in the outfield.!

Duvall is not much better in the field if at all, and Soler is a much better hitter.

[Hunter McCall]

7 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Soler for one year or three? One is OK.

Wasn’t he pretty healthy in 2021? He had 604 PAs and an uninspiring wRC+ of 100.

I doubt he'll sign a one year deal, but if he does I'd do it. Yes he was healthy. The advanced metrics were better than the numbers were. He was also much better after going to Atlanta that year in the second half of the season.

[DJL44]

25 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

As DJL44 indicated, you have other candidates here (Soler, Pham, Duvall, Martinez, Merrifield, Grichuk, Solano).  I like Soler, but not at that price.  I think that the FO should prioritize this list and wait this out some more to get a favorable deal.

There are also trade possibilities. JD Davis might get moved if San Francisco signs Chapman. Someone mentioned Connor Joe of the Pirates as a good fit. Neither one would cost much for prospects.

[EGFTShaw]

43 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

We have a hole. There's no DH. You can't go into the season relying on Jose Miranda to be your every day DH and having to play Willi Castro there handcuffs the lineup. There's the hole. Yes they need a right handed bat. Soler is not Joey Gallo 2.0. I actually compared the two's numbers right above if you care to read about it. Soler strikes out at only a 24% rate compared to Gallo's almost 43%.

Adding a guy like Nelson Cruz as you suggest does very little to help the issue with outfield flexibility. If they sign a guy, lets just say JD Martinez, who can only DH, and Buxton decides he can't play the field, you're in some trouble. At least if you sign Soler, he can play in the outfield. In my opinion you won't find a better fit for the Twins than Jorge Soler.

I was going to ignore avid defense of your opinion, but in re-reading your post I changed my mind.

If you had read my post correctly, I never compared Gallo to Soler. So, your petty comment about how you compared the two players is just that.

You never mentioned that Soler is expected to get at least 3 years at $15M, so where is the money coming from a team notorious about spending money conservatively.

SMH

 

[Hunter McCall]

20 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

If we can sign Merrifield on the cheap (1/5 or 2/10), I would love having his flexibility and mentoring abilities for our young homies. He can play any outfield position or could fill in at 2B or even 1B if needed. Still a solid hitter with solid speed as well.  

I would argue that Whit Merrifield is not a solid hitter. He's actually pretty bad...

Secondly, I think people put too much stock into the "locker room presence" thing. Plus, who's to say Jorge Soler isn't a good locker room mentor? He does have a World Series ring.

Merrifield runs and fields well, but it's hard to get fired up about this at the plate. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/whit-merrifield-593160?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

[Hunter McCall]

4 minutes ago, EGFTShaw said:

I was going to ignore avid defense of your opinion, but in re-reading your post I changed my mind.

If you had read my post correctly, I never compared Gallo to Soler. So, your petty comment about how you compared the two players is just that.

You never mentioned that Soler is expected to get at least 3 years at $15M, so where is the money coming from a team notorious about spending money conservatively.

SMH

 

I mentioned all those things in the article above.

[cmoss84]

22 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

I would argue that Whit Merrifield is not a solid hitter. He's actually pretty bad...

Secondly, I think people put too much stock into the "locker room presence" thing. Plus, who's to say Jorge Soler isn't a good locker room mentor? He does have a World Series ring.

Merrifield runs and fields well, but it's hard to get fired up about this at the plate. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/whit-merrifield-593160?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

Right...he is not as good as he used to be. But I would take him at half the cost of Soler...especially for how many positions he can play. I think the difference in cost could provide an additional decent RP. 

In essence: Merrifield + RP > Soler 

[Hunter McCall]

Just now, cmoss84 said:

Right...he is not as good as he used to be. But I would take him at half the cost of Soler...especially for how many positions he can play. I think the difference in cost could provide an additional decent RP. 

In essence: Merrifield + RP > Soler 

You're not wrong, there are far worse options. If you can get Merrifield at a third the price and add elsewhere it's not terrible. I would still prefer Soler myself because I think he makes the Twins' lineup really deep. I also think the bullpen is as good as it's been heading into a season. Outside of potentially maybe another stud starter, there aren't too many glaring holes on the roster. This is why I think they should spend the remaining money on a big bat and go after a starter at the deadline.

Just how I would do it, but there are certainly benefits to your suggestion!

[Basement Dweller]

Love this idea. Soler provides a bat that could put their potential opening day lineup over the top. Anyone disagreeing with this idea, question for you. Who do you have that are better options? There are so few available.

[Karbo]

I sure wouldn't go 3yrs 45 mil. He's a butcher in the field, and regressing by the eye test. There are other options available. I would much rather hold onto the $$ and hopefully go after a good starter at the trade deadline, when it will be clear what we need.

[Bright Twins]

Who would be better in the clubhouse?...Soler or Duvall?

[DJL44]

27 minutes ago, EGFTShaw said:

You never mentioned that Soler is expected to get at least 3 years at $15M, so where is the money coming from a team notorious about spending money conservatively.

There aren't many suitors. Early in free agency Boston, Seattle, Arizona and Toronto were rumored. Seattle traded for Haniger and signed Garver. Arizona signed Pederson and Gurriel. Toronto signed Justin Turner.

Latest On Jorge Soler's Market - MLB Trade Rumors

Duvall was looking at the Red Sox and the Angels. The Angels signed Hicks after this article was published and are rumored to be interested in JD Martinez.

MLB Rumors: Adam Duvall Down to Red Sox, Angels as 'Likely' Free-Agent Landing Spots | News, Scores, Highlights, Stats, and Rumors | Bleacher Report

If Duvall re-signs with the Red Sox then Soler's market is basically the Twins.

I don't think it will take 3 years $45M to sign Soler. I think 2 years $26M with some sort of option gets it done.

[Hunter McCall]

1 minute ago, Bright Twins said:

Who would be better in the clubhouse?...Soler or Duvall?

Again, not sure it really matters. I think people put way too much stock into "dugout leaders". They're both World Series champions if that means anything.

An honest question, can one have too many "dugout leaders"? I think about Correa and Buxton who seem to have a pretty good grasp on the clubhouse leadership thing.  I'm just really not sure it matters at some point. Adding good players to your clubhouse will likely build a good culture.

Soler's a better player so that's my preference I suppose.

[DJL44]

9 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

If you can get Merrifield at a third the price and add elsewhere it's not terrible.

Merrifield doesn't hit lefties much better (OPS below 700) than any of our LH batters. They already have Willi Castro to be a utility guy. They need someone who can hit for power off lefthanded pitching.

I also don't see many relievers left to add. They're pretty picked over and what's left won't cost much anyway.

[Hunter McCall]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Merrifield doesn't hit lefties much better (OPS below 700) than any of our LH batters. They already have Willi Castro to be a utility guy. They need someone who can hit for power off lefthanded pitching.

I also don't see many relievers left to add. They're pretty picked over and what's left won't cost much anyway.

Yeah, I prefer Soler as I mentioned. Merrifield would be a better glove/baserunning option, but that only goes so far. Like I mentioned, Merrifield doesn't hit much of anything very well nowadays. I think the bullpen is set as well.

[Hunter McCall]

17 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I sure wouldn't go 3yrs 45 mil. He's a butcher in the field, and regressing by the eye test. There are other options available. I would much rather hold onto the $$ and hopefully go after a good starter at the trade deadline, when it will be clear what we need.

I think the analytics and eye test say that Soler isn't regressing in my opinion. Hit 36 home runs in 2023 and has some eye popping advanced metrics. I agree that the fielding isn't great which is why he's not getting a massive contract. I think 3 for $45M is a decent deal but I could see the hesitance in going that far.

Following the Polanco trade I think the team has to spend the money now to replace his spot in the lineup and worry about the cost of adding a starter later. This is my preference.

[2wins87]

Here are the Fangraphs depth charts projected wRC+ for the right-handed (or switch) COF/1B/DH bats that seem to be in the discussion to bolster the lineup:

Soler - 118

Martinez - 106

Santana - 101

Pham - 100

Duvall - 98

Solano - 98

Grichuk - 89

I'm kind of surprised that Soler's projection is that high with a couple of rough seasons prior to last year, but all the projection systems more or less agree.  That's higher even than Rhys Hoskins at 116.

My initial reaction would be that at something like $18 million AAV for 3 years makes it really hard to see the fit for the Twins.  But none of the other free agents really seem worth it on a 1-year deal.  So I don't know, maybe I am a little on board.  The problem is, with the contractual and arbitration raises already baked in for next year, adding another $18 million for Soler probably pushes their payroll in 2025 to somewhere around $145 million as a baseline.

Seems like they are likely to get a 1 year TV deal, leaving all sorts of uncertainty around next offseason as well. and probably leaving them in an even trickier spot with the payroll.

[Hunter McCall]

4 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

Here are the Fangraphs depth charts projected wRC+ for the right-handed (or switch) COF/1B/DH bats that seem to be in the discussion to bolster the lineup:

Soler - 118

Martinez - 106

Santana - 101

Pham - 100

Duvall - 98

Solano - 98

Grichuk - 89

I'm kind of surprised that Soler's projection is that high with a couple of rough seasons prior to last year, but all the projection systems more or less agree.  That's higher even than Rhys Hoskins at 116.

My initial reaction would be that at something like $18 million AAV for 3 years makes it really hard to see the fit for the Twins.  But none of the other free agents really seem worth it on a 1-year deal.  So I don't know, maybe I am a little on board.  The problem is, with the contractual and arbitration raises already baked in for next year, adding another $18 million for Soler probably pushes their payroll in 2025 to somewhere around $145 million.

Seems like they are likely to get a 1 year TV deal, leaving all sorts of uncertainty around next offseason as well. and probably leaving them in an even trickier spot with the payroll.

Soler's a lot better than people seem to think, and has been for a while. Really if you factor out the unhealthy 2022 season and the first half of 2021, he's been really good for a long time. I know you can't just factor those out, but I'm saying there's a larger sample size to look at then just 2023. If they can make this work compared to one of the other options, this one is the best in my opinion.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Hunter McCall said:

Duvall is not much better in the field if at all, and Soler is a much better hitter.

LOL

Soler

Duvall

[Hunter McCall]

4 minutes ago, RpR said:

LOL

Soler

Duvall

2023 season:

Adam Duvall: -4 OAA

Jorge Soler: -3 OAA

[RpR]

6 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

2023 season:

Adam Duvall: -4 OAA

Jorge Soler: -3 OAA

lWhich means nothing.

[Hunter McCall]

1 minute ago, RpR said:

lWhich means nothing.

Ok lol... So you want to use his pre-2023 defensive stats as a defense that he's a much better fielder than Soler? He's still likely a better fielder but my point remains he's probably not as good as he once was defensively plus his bat is no where near as good as Soler's. Strikes out too much, doesn't walk enough, weak contact... Players don't get better when they're 35 either

[2wins87]

11 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

2023 season:

Adam Duvall: -4 OAA

Jorge Soler: -3 OAA

Duvall was -4 in CF but positive in LF/RF.  DRS and UZR agree with statcast on that directionally.

Duvall would have been a positive defender had the Sox played him in corners only, my guess is he still will be this year too.  He could be an emergency CF or 1B too, so I think he's a good fit position-wise.  He would probably be my 2nd best FA behind Soler. He's a much better defender but I wouldn't expect Duvall to be of particular impact in the lineup, more of a solid platoon bat 

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, RpR said:

LOL

Soler

Duvall

Career numbers: Soler is +11 RBat and -10 RField over 162 games. Duvall is -2 RBat, +10 RField over 162 games.

2022-23 numbers: Soler is +17 RBat -6 RField (89 games fielding). Duvall is -1 RBat and -7 RField (170 games fielding). Duvall gets dinged mostly because he can't handle CF anymore, he's still average in the corners.

36-year-old Duvall is still likely to be a better fielder than 31-year-old Soler. It matters how you deploy them. If you're looking for a bench outfielder then you probably want Duvall. If you want someone full time and more for DH you want Soler. The Twins need another bat more than they need another glove.

[Major League Ready]

I was on the fence with Soler but you guys have me convinced.  He is probably the best fit left out there.  The Twins are at 114M right now so he would put them at $130 which is within the range we have heard.   Don't think Duvall is a good fit because he does not hit LHP any better than RHP.  Merrifield makes no sense.  We don't need to say money to fill multiple roles or add a BP piece.  Let's get one guy who can make an impact.  We have a lot of BP depth at this point.  

[Hunter McCall]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

Career numbers: Soler is +11 RBat and -10 RField over 162 games. Duvall is -2 RBat, +10 RField over 162 games.

2022-23 numbers: Soler is +17 RBat -6 RField (89 games fielding). Duvall is -1 RBat and -7 RField (170 games fielding). Duvall gets dinged mostly because he can't handle CF anymore, he's still average in the corners.

36-year-old Duvall is still likely to be a better fielder than 31-year-old Soler. It matters how you deploy them. If you're looking for a bench outfielder then you probably want Duvall. If you want someone full time and more for DH you want Soler. The Twins need another bat more than they need another glove.

This is exactly the right take in my opinion.

[Hunter McCall]

Just now, Major League Ready said:

I was on the fence with Soler but you guys have me convinced.  He is probably the best fit left out there.  The Twins are at 114M right now so he would put them at $130 which is within the range we have heard.   Don't think Duvall is a good fit because he does not hit LHP any better than RHP.  Merrifield makes no sense.  We don't need to say money to fill multiple roles or add a BP piece.  Let's get one guy who can make an impact.  We have a lot of BP depth at this point.  

Agree! I've gotten to the point where I will be wildly disappointed if sign anyone else.

[spanman2]

While Soler appears to be a great fit, the Twins still have to find a way to make it work. According to our best info, the Twins have about $11 million available in the budget that they’re willing to spend, as they are expected to lower the payroll from previous years. As mentioned, Soler could cost around $15 million per season, though it might be too late in the offseason for him to get any more than that or to find that third or fourth year he's been seeking. The Twins will either have to shed more payroll or get creative with the potential contract to get a deal done.

BS on the payroll...with the success we had last year in the postseason that hadn't been since 2004 this is absurd!  Keep the payroll in the 150 mill range win the division again/advance and you make it all back no problem...there will be a tv deal of some sort in '24.  This is why some fans get so frustrated with ownership.  They seem to be animate about how 'this is a business'...well invest in your business to get results...results will yield more revenue!  No one has the expectation of 200 mill payroll but there is and should be of 150 or slightly higher if need be.  WIN TWINS!

[DJL44]

Another factor is they already have someone like Duvall on the 40-man roster: Austin Martin. They don't have anyone like Soler with his 1.080 OPS against LHP. That was an sOPS+ of 186 (he hit lefthanded pitching 86% better than league average).

[miracleb]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Agree. Will Soler sign for the money saved by trading Polanco? Hmmm.

The dude turned down 15M per year..........