Why You Should Believe in Bailey Ober, Mid-Rotation Starter - Caretaker Exclusive

[Matthew Trueblood]

This has been the winter of many Twins fans' discontent, as they impatiently await the addition of a frontline starting pitcher. While that sentiment is understandable, it fundamentally underrates one of the existing pieces the team has.

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

Since the start of the 2022 season, Bailey Ober has made 37 starts in the big leagues, totaling 200 innings. He has a 3.37 ERA. In addition to those, he made five starts in Triple A in 2023, with St. Paul, and ran a 2.38 ERA. Those are frontline starter numbers. That 3.37 mark is the same ERA as coveted trade candidate Dylan Cease and much-admired young Mariners co-ace George Kirby have over the same span.

Of course, both Cease and Kirby have thrown upward of 100 more innings than has Ober during those two seasons, at least in MLB. A groin strain cost Ober a good chunk of 2022, and the Twins' unexpectedly stout, healthy rotation led them to stash the optionable Ober in St. Paul for a couple stretches of the season. Health is a big part of the story with Ober, but it's been somewhat overstated recently. The groin strain was unfortunate, and isn't to be entirely dismissed, because he's a big guy with an athletic delivery, and injuries like that are part of the package there.

It's been several years since Ober's elbow trouble in the minor leagues, though, and he's an almost entirely different pitcher now than he was then. While he's not going to rack up a workload to match that of Jordan Montgomery (3.34 ERA since 2022, but 367 regular-season innings) or Logan Gilbert (376 innings of 3.47-ERA ball), Ober now has a platform of roughly 165 innings on which to build. Despite being a collegiate draftee who then got waylaid by injuries and the pandemic, Ober is still only 28 years old.

You can make a pretty strong argument, in other words, that the Twins have a strong mid-rotation starter here--and maybe more. If he pitches 175 innings in 2024 with a similar ERA to his past two seasons, he'll be the replacement for the departed Sonny Gray, and Twins fans needn't obsess further over that challenge.

"That's a pretty big if!" you exclaim. "Can he really do that?"

Yes.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I've never seen the word transmogrify before this article. I absolutely learned something today. Thank you.

Ober, when healthy, is very good. This does give hope for the upcoming season :)

[LA Vikes Fan]

I haven't seen the word "transmogrify" used in a sentence since the old "Calvin and Hobbes" comic strip. They had an overturned cardboard box they called the "transmogrifier"  which changed things in a magical way. Excellent use of vocabulary.

I agree on Ober. I do see him a solid #3 with #2 potential.  Frankly, same thinking on Ryan for different reasons. Their improvement looks like the only way to replace Gray's contribution. 

[Parfigliano]

Im more worried by Paddack then Ober.

[AceWrigley]

As we look at replacing the performance of Sonny Gray, and as well as he pitched, I find it interesting that the team only went 14-18 in his 32 games started. The Twins winning pct last year was .537, so an average Twins pitching performance should have got them 17 wins. Doesn't look that hard to replace in that light.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, AceWrigley said:

As we look at replacing the performance of Sonny Gray, and as well as he pitched, I find it interesting that the team only went 14-18 in his 32 games started. The Twins winning pct last year was .537, so an average Twins pitching performance should have got them 17 wins. Doesn't look that hard to replace in that light.

With that logic, why not sign JA Happ, the Twins were 9 -10 in his starts?

[AceWrigley]

4 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

With that logic, why not sign JA Happ, the Twins were 9 -10 in his starts?

Happ retired.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

14 minutes ago, AceWrigley said:

Happ retired.

Thank goodness for that!

 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

There was an article earlier this week about fans undervaluing Ober and Ryan as starters.  I think this is further proof that we shouldn't do that.  I think they are both solid, if inexperienced #3 pitchers who have some headroom left to grow and be better.  I doubt that they will become full blown aces (whatever that means), but it seems likely that they could makeup for some of the quality innings thrown by Gray last year and potentially slot into a starting role in the playoffs.  I personally find it fascinating to see all of the trade proposals for us to give up the farm for other teams' starters, most of whom have very similar stats to our own guys. 

[Nashvilletwin]

Agree with article - Ober should be seen, until proven otherwise, as a legit, young, cheap, controllable #2-3 starter.  Just like what many TDers want to acquire in a trade for Lee, Julien, Rodriguez, or even Lewis.  Ryan is pretty much the same as Ober. Paddack, for the innings he might throw this year, should be considered as such as well.  Heck, even Varland might be Ober a year ago.

With a couple of potential starters among our top prospects joining the possible rotation in ‘25, it could be that the FO wants to see how this young staff gestates before pulling the trigger on trading our top position player prospects.

Without a big influx of cash from a new TV deal (or less likely it now seems, but still possible, a trade of Polanco and or Kepler), we should anticipate a flyer “prove it” type deal with one or more fallen angel type starters at best before spring training starts.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

2 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Ober is still only 28 years old.

28 is not ancient, but for a comparison, Jose Berrios had already completed his entire Twins career and had been traded to the Blue Jays before he was 28. 

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I haven't seen the word "transmogrify" used in a sentence since the old "Calvin and Hobbes" comic strip. They had an overturned cardboard box they called the "transmogrifier"  which changed things in a magical way. Excellent use of vocabulary.

I agree on Ober. I do see him a solid #3 with #2 potential.  Frankly, same thinking on Ryan for different reasons. Their improvement looks like the only way to replace Gray's contribution. 

First thing that came to mind for me as well. 

https://disemvowel.wordpress.com/2010/05/20/calvin-and-hobbes-by-bill-watterson-transmogrifier/

[big dog]

Groin injuries are part of the package.

True, definitely true.

[jimbo92107]

It takes some pitchers a lot longer than others  to find a "sweet spot" in their training and mechanics that allows them to handle the load of a stable starting pitcher. Chris Paddack actually is a good example of a guy whose mechanics blew up his elbow. Now that he is sufficiently healed for pitching, the multi-million  dollar question  is, has he altered his mechanics enough to be a starter without wrecking his elbow again?

As for Ober, it looks like he has reached his sweet spot. He doesn't look like he's wrecking himself in any particular way. 

A rotation of Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Paddack would be formidable, if they can last through a season. 

[Fatbat]

Ober has always had a chance to be an ace. Another 5 years of him dealing and developing is absolutely possible.  Everyone of our SP’s are in a position to take another step in their development. 
Grays record last year was due to a lack of run support when we were was less than stellar on offense and bullpen malfunctions. 

[Paul Walerius]

19 hours ago, AceWrigley said:

As we look at replacing the performance of Sonny Gray, and as well as he pitched, I find it interesting that the team only went 14-18 in his 32 games started. The Twins winning pct last year was .537, so an average Twins pitching performance should have got them 17 wins. Doesn't look that hard to replace in that light.

Doesn't look hard no, just remember most of the games we lost, when Gray pitched, they didn't score runs or Rocco took him out at 80 pitches because he wasn't sharp (even though he was not giving up runs).

[JD-TWINS]

21 hours ago, AceWrigley said:

As we look at replacing the performance of Sonny Gray, and as well as he pitched, I find it interesting that the team only went 14-18 in his 32 games started. The Twins winning pct last year was .537, so an average Twins pitching performance should have got them 17 wins. Doesn't look that hard to replace in that light.

Agreed - it’s really about the outcome of the start. I realize one could be fortunate and have an ERA of 4.40 & win 14 games …….and that a 2.79 ERA gives the team a better chance. Not promoting mediocrity. Still, when discussing replacing guys, Gray & Maeda combined were 14-16 in ‘23. Maeda wasn’t sharp in relief in the playoffs. Gray was 1-1 with a pick off move to 2B that protected the one win, & he went 5 innings. That makes team 15-19 across all his starts or .441 win %.

Do the readers/writers here expect Lopez - Ryan - Ober to regress or stay static or improve? IMO, Ober regresses just a bit because he’s been so good, Ryan improves with health & Lopez pitches similarly with a slightly better record.

Point is, the outcomes for Maeda & Gray should be replaceable with Paddack & Varland. Could still use some starter depth help but not desperate times.

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Ober has always had a chance to be an ace. Another 5 years of him dealing and developing is absolutely possible.  Everyone of our SP’s are in a position to take another step in their development. 
Grays record last year was due to a lack of run support when we were was less than stellar on offense and bullpen malfunctions. 

Agree, Ober can be good!

Regardless of why the Team was 15-19 in Gray’s starts (Pen blew it - lack of offense - lack of depth in start) …….. the Team needs to positively replace the Outcomes of his starts…….2 of the above were playoff starts.  So, if a guy or two can start the 32 games Gray did in the regular season and the team goes 16-14 & all else stays the same, they win 89 games. To me, the Twins going 16-14 with another starter is not a big ask……..,gotta get the innings from someone, that’s the biggest challenge.

[stringer bell]

Agree with the OP. Ober is pretty good right now and could improve. I don't see his risk for injury as any higher than any #3 starter that logged in excess of 160 innings (majors and minors) last year.

I also agree that another major league quality starter is needed. The Twins got a lot of innings out of their eventual 1-5 starters (Ober for Mahle) and aren't guaranteed to do the same in 2024. Adding another guy is really necessary.

[Fatbat]

36 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Agree, Ober can be good!

Regardless of why the Team was 15-19 in Gray’s starts (Pen blew it - lack of offense - lack of depth in start) …….. the Team needs to positively replace the Outcomes of his starts…….2 of the above were playoff starts.  So, if a guy or two can start the 32 games Gray did in the regular season and the team goes 16-14 & all else stays the same, they win 89 games. To me, the Twins going 16-14 with another starter is not a big ask……..,gotta get the innings from someone, that’s the biggest challenge.

If the twins, and it appears this is plan A, throw out the first half of ‘23 and roll with 2nd half of ‘23 and build on it. Why can’t a 95 win season be a FO expectation instead of just wishful thinking?  
It really sounds like there are some very hungry young guys that are going to knock on MLB in ‘24.  Anyone that thinks a vet in spring training that obviously wants to hold onto his job but sees the future, wont play a little scared in April/May.  If that drives some extra motivation, we could get out to a very nice lead in the central. Then does the FO put the accelerator to the floor and bring up any one of a number of prospects that are tearing up the minors? Success breeds more success as they say.  
There is probably an equal chance of  some early struggles and major injuries but for the sake of argument, what if the season starts out similar to what the Rays in ‘23.  

[killertwinfan]

I am mostly puzzled by this narrative. Neither Bailey nor Ryan are in the bottom quartile of starting pitching in MLB. Yes, our starters, as a group, will take a step back with the loss of Gray but that doesn’t take away anything from either of these guys, who are quality bottom  to  middle rotation pitchers. 

[Aerodeliria]

I think he will have to go into the transmogrifier if he wants to cement his positiion in the rotation. (Hopefully, he won't come out of the box sporting Tommy John arms.) When he was pitching in the playoffs, I was not impressed at all. His fastball looked particularly hittable. He needs to get more movement from his pitches IMHO.