Why You Should Believe in Bailey Ober, Mid-Rotation Starter

As we look at replacing the performance of Sonny Gray, and as well as he pitched, I find it interesting that the team only went 14-18 in his 32 games started. The Twins winning pct last year was .537, so an average Twins pitching performance should have got them 17 wins. Doesn't look that hard to replace in that light.

1 hour ago, AceWrigley said:

As we look at replacing the performance of Sonny Gray, and as well as he pitched, I find it interesting that the team only went 14-18 in his 32 games started. The Twins winning pct last year was .537, so an average Twins pitching performance should have got them 17 wins. Doesn't look that hard to replace in that light.

With that logic, why not sign JA Happ, the Twins were 9 -10 in his starts?

4 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

With that logic, why not sign JA Happ, the Twins were 9 -10 in his starts?

Happ retired.

Agree with article - Ober should be seen, until proven otherwise, as a legit, young, cheap, controllable #2-3 starter.  Just like what many TDers want to acquire in a trade for Lee, Julien, Rodriguez, or even Lewis.  Ryan is pretty much the same as Ober. Paddack, for the innings he might throw this year, should be considered as such as well.  Heck, even Varland might be Ober a year ago.

With a couple of potential starters among our top prospects joining the possible rotation in ‘25, it could be that the FO wants to see how this young staff gestates before pulling the trigger on trading our top position player prospects.

Without a big influx of cash from a new TV deal (or less likely it now seems, but still possible, a trade of Polanco and or Kepler), we should anticipate a flyer “prove it” type deal with one or more fallen angel type starters at best before spring training starts.

Groin injuries are part of the package.

True, definitely true.

It takes some pitchers a lot longer than others  to find a "sweet spot" in their training and mechanics that allows them to handle the load of a stable starting pitcher. Chris Paddack actually is a good example of a guy whose mechanics blew up his elbow. Now that he is sufficiently healed for pitching, the multi-million  dollar question  is, has he altered his mechanics enough to be a starter without wrecking his elbow again?

As for Ober, it looks like he has reached his sweet spot. He doesn't look like he's wrecking himself in any particular way. 

A rotation of Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Paddack would be formidable, if they can last through a season. 

Ober has always had a chance to be an ace. Another 5 years of him dealing and developing is absolutely possible.  Everyone of our SP’s are in a position to take another step in their development. 
Grays record last year was due to a lack of run support when we were was less than stellar on offense and bullpen malfunctions. 

19 hours ago, AceWrigley said:

As we look at replacing the performance of Sonny Gray, and as well as he pitched, I find it interesting that the team only went 14-18 in his 32 games started. The Twins winning pct last year was .537, so an average Twins pitching performance should have got them 17 wins. Doesn't look that hard to replace in that light.

Doesn't look hard no, just remember most of the games we lost, when Gray pitched, they didn't score runs or Rocco took him out at 80 pitches because he wasn't sharp (even though he was not giving up runs).

36 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Agree, Ober can be good!

Regardless of why the Team was 15-19 in Gray’s starts (Pen blew it - lack of offense - lack of depth in start) …….. the Team needs to positively replace the Outcomes of his starts…….2 of the above were playoff starts.  So, if a guy or two can start the 32 games Gray did in the regular season and the team goes 16-14 & all else stays the same, they win 89 games. To me, the Twins going 16-14 with another starter is not a big ask……..,gotta get the innings from someone, that’s the biggest challenge.

If the twins, and it appears this is plan A, throw out the first half of ‘23 and roll with 2nd half of ‘23 and build on it. Why can’t a 95 win season be a FO expectation instead of just wishful thinking?  
It really sounds like there are some very hungry young guys that are going to knock on MLB in ‘24.  Anyone that thinks a vet in spring training that obviously wants to hold onto his job but sees the future, wont play a little scared in April/May.  If that drives some extra motivation, we could get out to a very nice lead in the central. Then does the FO put the accelerator to the floor and bring up any one of a number of prospects that are tearing up the minors? Success breeds more success as they say.  
There is probably an equal chance of  some early struggles and major injuries but for the sake of argument, what if the season starts out similar to what the Rays in ‘23.  

I am mostly puzzled by this narrative. Neither Bailey nor Ryan are in the bottom quartile of starting pitching in MLB. Yes, our starters, as a group, will take a step back with the loss of Gray but that doesn’t take away anything from either of these guys, who are quality bottom  to  middle rotation pitchers. 

I think he will have to go into the transmogrifier if he wants to cement his positiion in the rotation. (Hopefully, he won't come out of the box sporting Tommy John arms.) When he was pitching in the playoffs, I was not impressed at all. His fastball looked particularly hittable. He needs to get more movement from his pitches IMHO.