Are Twins fans underrating Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober?

[Rik19753]

Reading comments and articles on Twins Daily, I think Twins fans currently perceive Ryan and Ober as good-but-not-great pitchers that you preferably don't want to start in playoff games. The fact that Ryan was far from great in the 2nd half and that both pitchers were underwhelming in their playoff starts seem to reinforce this idea.

While I generally agree with this perception, a recent post on Fangraphs has me thinking that we may be selling Ryan and Ober short.

Fangraphs released their 2024 fantasy baseball SP rankings, and they had Ryan and Ober as the 30th and 31st ranked SPs, respectively. Obviously, fantasy baseball rankings are different from actual rankings in that they place some value on wins and Ks, but I think you can use them as an estimate as to how players stack up relative to the rest of the league.

Some interesting takeaways from this ranking are

・Ryan and Ober are fringe 1st starters/elite 2nd starters

・More than one third of teams (12 teams to be exact) don't have any pitchers ranked as highly as Ryan or Ober

・While the loss of Gray (ranked 25th) hurts, Ryan and Ober are pretty much in the same tier

・While we dream about trade targets like Luzardo (26th), Mitch Keller (50th), Bryce Miller (51st), Bryan Woo (55th) as playoff caliber starters, even if the Twins acquire one of them the playoff rotation may be Lopez, Ryan and Ober

・Teams can make playoff runs with much worse staffs.

ARI: Gallen(7th), Kelly(59th), Pfaadt(66th)

TEX: Montgomery(41st), Eovaldi(60th), Heaney(114th)

 

This has me thinking that maybe it isn't the worst thing in the world if we don't end up trading for a top of the rotation arm.

Edited January 14, 2024 by Rik19753

[Rik19753]

Here are the rankings if you want to see them for yourself

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-2024-fantasy-rankings/

[wabene]

Pablo at 11 and Berrios at 36. Thanks for this it is interesting. Ober broke an innings barrier and seems determined to excel, very competitive. I like his chances. Ryan is harder to read, he's a different cat. I don't know what to make of the whole phantom injury thing. One time thing or is he prone to fading as the season wears on? Regardless the Twins still need one more starter. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

New and shiny are always fun. But these guys are both very good in their own right :)

[stringer bell]

It will be interesting what a list of starting pitchers will look like a year from now. Except for the cream of the crop, pitching is so volatile that it is just hard to know. Like everyone else, I'd love to see the Twins add a quality arm before the season starts, but it isn't easy, especially given the (self imposed) salary restraints in place for the Twins.

[MGX]

Thanks for the writeup it's interesting to see where Ryan & Ober rank compared starting pitchers viewed as trade targets. It also highlights the fact that needing "an Ace" to win in the playoffs is a myth. If you have a strong position player group & a strong bullpen with solid starters that is a recipe for success. 

IMO the rotation should be Lopez, Ryan & Ober & then add a depth starter to join Paddack & Varland. If we go this route the pitcher can be added via free agency or a trade with a more reasonable cost. This allows us to keep our young core of position players to develop. 

[wabene]

21 minutes ago, MGX said:

Thanks for the writeup it's interesting to see where Ryan & Ober rank compared starting pitchers viewed as trade targets. It also highlights the fact that needing "an Ace" to win in the playoffs is a myth. If you have a strong position player group & a strong bullpen with solid starters that is a recipe for success. 

IMO the rotation should be Lopez, Ryan & Ober & then add a depth starter to join Paddack & Varland. If we go this route the pitcher can be added via free agency or a trade with a more reasonable cost. This allows us to keep our young core of position players to develop. 

I agree with this unless, of course, they can pull off another Sonny Gray trade. That would be Charlee Soto for two years of a front line starter and the opportunity for another comp pick. 

[tony&rodney]

Ryan and Ober are both very good starting pitchers. Varland may join them this year as a dependable starting pitcher after a full season of starts at the MLB level.

While i'm not going to complain if the Twins sign Blake Snell, I may say, "They did what?" Don't expect it.

There really isn't anyone to sign above Varland and a trade would need to be a real surprise challenge type deal. I would expect a pitcher added along the lines of Jose De Leon from last year.

There are several months left for teams to shake out what their plans are for the coming year. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

7 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Ryan and Ober are both very good starting pitchers. Varland may join them this year as a dependable starting pitcher after a full season of starts at the MLB level.

While i'm not going to complain if the Twins sign Blake Snell, I may say, "They did what?" Don't expect it.

There really isn't anyone to sign above Varland and a trade would need to be a real surprise challenge type deal. I would expect a pitcher added along the lines of Jose De Leon from last year.

There are several months left for teams to shake out what their plans are for the coming year. 

I’ll take that bet and say that a starting pitcher addition, one that would comfortably start a playoff game, will 100% be added before the season.

This front office, for everything that has happened, has always been transparent to the point that they have done what they say they will. 2019 was Odorizzi. 2020 was Maeda, 2022 was Gray and Correa, 2023 was Lopez and Correa a 2nd time. 2021 didn’t work out that way but they still signed Donaldson. 

When they say their goal and plan for this offseason is to add a high impact starting pitcher, I believe them. That is more than what a minor league signing constitutes. 
 

 

[Fatbat]

I am a bit surprised that Ryan and Ober are 30,31.  If they and Lopez get off to a great start, would he possibly have 3 allstar pitchers?? In addition, what if Varland and Paddack are for real and have an ERA close to 3.00 in the first half of ‘24.  The possibilities are exciting but not expected. Honestly, I would like to trade back for Berrios. Wouldn’t that be wild??

I have been perusing the top 100 amateur draft prospects and the international signees list.  The ‘24 class could be really something to watch over the next 4-5 years as they develop. Just sheer numbers of picks and signees could be amazing…. but I digress.  

Hopefully we stay healthy way longer than the ‘23 roster did and we have a commanding lead in the central going into the allstar break!! 

[Craig Arko]

Constantly. 

[Parfigliano]

Im happy with going with what we have.  Making a trade/signing in the offseason just because you have to or you're seen as doing nothing is a fools move.  If a perceived advantageous move (Lopez trade) is there do it.  If not dont.  Teams had enough Shoemaker-Happ level signings.  Those types will always be there.

[Danchat]

I'm going to guess a big reason why they are underrated are because of this:

Joe Ryan

2023 July and on: 6.09 ERA, only pitched 2 innings in the playoffs

Bailey Ober

2023 August and on: 3.94 ERA (down from 3.19 ERA the rest of the year), Playoffs 12.46 ERA

 

It's a "what have you done for me lately" league and Ryan was unplayable in the second half of 2023, while Ober was only bad for the playoffs and was still pitching pretty well down the stretch. Both are capable of being really good starters, but are we talking for a 2 month stretch or most of the season? I'm more concerned about Ryan and his tendency to give up too many HRs. Ober's numbers were strong for a majority of the season, so I'm less worried there.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think they're appropriately rated. They're two pitchers with upside and question marks. With Ryan, he needs to show that his pitch mix and stuff plays for an entire season. With Ober, he needs to show he can stay on the mound.

I think I have slightly more confidence in Ober at this point but it's close.

Also, no way in hell do I put them 30/31 if evaluating them in the actual baseball sense and not fantasy. I've have to spend the time to really break down the list but I'd be a little surprised if either of them were in the top 60 or so.

[Fatbat]

9 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think they're appropriately rated. They're two pitchers with upside and question marks. With Ryan, he needs to show that his pitch mix and stuff plays for an entire season. With Ober, he needs to show he can stay on the mound.

I think I have slightly more confidence in Ober at this point but it's close.

Also, no way in hell do I put them 30/31 if evaluating them in the actual baseball sense and not fantasy. I've have to spend the time to really break down the list but I'd be a little surprised if either of them were in the top 60 or so.

Agreed. Based on past results, 50 or higher. Possibly around 80.  But ‘24 may be a development point where they actually fit in about 30 which would be outstanding.

[Cory Engelhardt]

29 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think they're appropriately rated. They're two pitchers with upside and question marks. With Ryan, he needs to show that his pitch mix and stuff plays for an entire season. With Ober, he needs to show he can stay on the mound.

I think I have slightly more confidence in Ober at this point but it's close.

Also, no way in hell do I put them 30/31 if evaluating them in the actual baseball sense and not fantasy. I've have to spend the time to really break down the list but I'd be a little surprised if either of them were in the top 60 or so.

I also like to rate my teams players worse because it’s the team I follow the closest

[Rosterman]

I like watching Ryan pitch. As long as he can control the pace of the game, and give him a smart catcher with pre-game prep, and he should always dominate. That being said, get his timing off, and will he just unravel, or can he take back control. In the back of one's mind, you wonder why Tampa Bay let him go. Of course, he is on the "old" end - which ike Ober, is good. The Twins will have control of both into their 30/31 years. And, considering how this season goes, the Twins NEED to get another year out of them both.

Ober also can control his work. I'm looking forward to seeing a full season. This is where it is important to have a pitching coach, stat guys and such. The Twins have potential control guys.

All pitchers give up home runs. Even Louis Varland could fall into that category. And I hope Louie can join the duo into being a part of a longterm rotation for the Twins. Louie works fast. He has jsut learned, though, that major league batters can be mroe patient, are more powerful, more selective, and one mistake...pow.

Four or more years for all of the three, combined with Lopez. Now who gets a break and when to also become a aprt of the Twins rotation?

[mnfireman]

Ryan started falling apart after his second start in June, I don't remember exactly when he was injured, but I seem to recall hearing during the Atlanta start at the end of June:

Before the Atlanta start:  8-4 W/L record, 2.98 ERA, 100/15 K/BB ratio, 8 HRs allowed, 15 GS, 93.2 IP

Atlanta start to end of season:  3-6 W/L record, 6.62 ERA, 97/19 K/BB ratio, 24 HRs allowed 14 GS, 68 IP including 1-4 W/L record, 8.63 ERA, 52/10 K/BB ratio, 17 HRs allowed in 7 starts, 32. 1 IP from the Atlanta start until going on the IL after his August 2 start.

Hopefully this was just a case of an injury affecting performance, if you remove the Colorado start to end his season his slash line upon returning from the IL was 2-2, 3.82 ERA, 39/8 K/BB ratio, 4 HRs allowed over 30.2 IP covering 6 GS.

Removing the injury plagued starts and the Colorado start, Ryan had a very respectable, even Cy Young consideration worthy season, if carried over the whole season: 10-6, 3.26 ERA, 139/23 K/BB ratio, 12 HRs allowed, 21 GS, 121.1 IP. Let's hope this is the Ryan we get in 2024 over 32 GS and 185 IP.

[mnfireman]

Ober must have either gotten tired or suffered from some sort of dead-arm period last season:

April 23 - July 23: 16 GS, 94.2 IP, 10-6 W/L record, 2.76 ERA, 90/18 K/BB ratio, 11 HRs allowed

July 29 - August 27: 6 GS, 28 IP, 0-2 W/L record, 6.75 ERA, 30/8 K/BB ratio, 8 HRs allowed

Sep 4 to seasons end: 4 GS, 21.2 IP, 2-0 W/L record, 2.08 ERA, 26/3 K/BB ratio, 3 HRs allowed

Removing the 6 bad starts before being demoted to AAA, could have just used "dead arm" and placed him on the IL, his season might have been even better than Ryan's: 12-6, 2.63 ERA, 116/21 K/BB ratio, 14 HRs allowed, 20 GS, 116.1 IP. Let's hope this is the Ober we get in 2024 over 32 GS and 185 IP.

[old nurse]

Those ranking were for fantasy sports. That is a different agenda than winning playoff baseball games.

[sweetmusicviola16]

I don't feel like I am underrating, under estimating or under valuing either. But I would sure as heck like a guy to slot ahead of them behind Lopez, or better yet a guy that slots in ahead of all 3. My honest opinion? I don't think its happening this year. Every team has set a premium on starting pitching, a lot based on how expensive under performing back of the rotation guys are getting paid in FA. I don't think the FO is going to be willing to pay that premium this year in prospect talent. Plus we are cost cutting so even a Lorenzen type is beyond our pay scale in FA. I'm hoping that maybe a Ru type would come to us in FA. But my hope is fading.

So, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varland and Paddock will be our rotation. With AAA filling in the holes as they come throughout the season.

[tony&rodney]

Hey maybe the Twins do add a starting pitcher through a huge trade. As of right now though, only Seattle and Houston look to have a better top five (very subjective). i will be interested to see if Ryan, Ober, and Varland can all stay healthy and start 30 games each.

[Brock Beauchamp]

16 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I also like to rate my teams players worse because it’s the team I follow the closest

I run sites for three different teams. Watching the Twins isn't even close to the majority of baseball games I watch anymore. Last year I watched more Brewers games than Twins games.

[Cory Engelhardt]

7 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I run sites for three different teams. Watching the Twins isn't even close to the majority of baseball games I watch anymore. Last year I watched more Brewers games than Twins games.

I know Brock, you are great. Sorry for the snark.

That said, I do watch mostly the Twins. That is why I probably undervalue our guys more than other team’s players, when comparing. Or at least that’s what I tend to do generally. 

[wabene]

18 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I run sites for three different teams. Watching the Twins isn't even close to the majority of baseball games I watch anymore. Last year I watched more Brewers games than Twins games.

Blaspheme 

[SaberNerd]

Fangraphs currently only has a single projection system for 2024 predictions, so we can look at a non-fantasy based ranking

2024 Projections - Steamer | FanGraphs Baseball

Twins rankings are

7 Lopez

38 Ryan

70 Ober

81 Paddack

118 Varland (although it has him as mixing between starting and relief)

 

Ryan had elite K/BB last year, and the models believe he'll be better (but still bad) at limiting HRs than 2023

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I know Brock, you are great. Sorry for the snark.

That said, I do watch mostly the Twins. That is why I probably undervalue our guys more than other team’s players, when comparing. Or at least that’s what I tend to do generally. 

No worries at all about the snark, sometimes it's hard to read through the internet and try to guess intent.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

6 hours ago, wabene said:

Blaspheme 

[wabene]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

The Twins are my religion.

Twinsdaily is my church.

The bishop appears to have been led astray. 

[Riverbrian]

I don't do the 1,2,3,4,5 thing when labelling starters. These two can get people out so I'll let others slap numbers on them.  

I like them both and I am really glad that they wear a Twins uniform. If people are under-rating them... they should stop doing that.   

The average MLB pitcher in 2023 tossed a 4.26 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP. 

Ober has 292 innings with a career ERA of 3.63 with a 1.10 WHIP

Ryan has thrown 335 career innings with a ERA of 4.05 and a 1.10 WHIP. 

They both pitch for the minimum compensation.