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Posted

To say it has been a quiet offseason for the Minnesota Twins is an understatement. The front office began talking about payroll uncertainty almost the moment the World Series was complete and virtually nothing has happened in the month+ since.

Jon Morosi tweeted today that the front office is still interested in dealing both Max Kepler (one year remaining until free agency) and Jorge Polanco (one year plus one option year until free agency) but no teams have been closely linked to either player. It's likely the Twins will also be interested in fielding offers for utility man Kyle Farmer and catcher Christian Vazquez.

This makes sense, as many felt certain dominos needed to fall in a specific order before a trade market could emerge: Shohei Ohtani needed to sign. Yoshinobu Yamamoto needed to do the same. This will open the door for some of the position player free agents to find homes, after which teams that missed out on free agency can pursue trades.

Long story short, don't expect anything to happen before we welcome the new year two weeks from now.

 


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Posted

The Twins are always listening on any and all trade offers. I'm skeptical that the Twins are hoping to trade Polanco and Kepler to save money. They are hoping to turn these guys who will soon be gone into players who will be around and feel like they can be covered by others if the return is decent; a win-win situation. 

Vazquez will be difficult to trade for a reasonable return and the money saved will be used to bring in an inferior player unless the Twins manage a major trade that includes a catcher coming back. Farmer makes sense as a utility player for the Twins still but we should expect him to be traded for a minor league kid with some hope for the future or as the tail end of a package of players in a bigger trade.

There has been a constant chorus of comments that suggest trading Polanco and Kepler to free up money in order to sign a free agent pitcher. I would be flabbergasted if that happened. It does make sense to probe the market in order to obtain value for any of the Twins players. It makes even more sense if those players are not likely to be a part of the team 2-3 years. 

Polanco has two more years and Max has one under contract. Neither can return a player who will help in 2024 by themselves. Either can be part of a larger trade to bring in a player that is impactful for 2024.

A much bigger decision, one that can be deferred easily, is how the Twins see using three young players for two positions. Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee are really third basemen, unless you believe that Carlos Correa will move to first base soon. Julien is rough but pretty much the most likely guy to work out at second base until someone else comes along. Nobody wants to see any of these three leave and I agree, yet it is these three whose names emit from the lips of GMs who seek transactions with the Twins.

Expect more silence.

Posted

I had thought that the Twins would match up with the Red Sox because the Sox have no useful second baseman on their roster.  There have been Merrifield rumors, but I have yet to see anything on Polanco.  I did make a comment on the Red Sox page of The Athletic and Jen McCaffrey commented that the Sox are looking for a good defender.  To my eyes it looks like Polanco fits the bill, but she stated that his analytics have him as below average.  I'm guessing that this may be contributing to the lack of activity at this point.

Posted

I agree with the FO that our solution to our needs is the trade market. Yet anyone that thinks that any team that needs Kepler or Polanco will offer us anything more than a bunch of worthless players & poor lotto tickets will be IMO very disappointed. We won't get anything close to what they are worth to us! Vazquez is worse where we'll have to pay someone to take him & then pay for a far inferior substitute. Farmer is a valuable quality INF piece.

Our main need is a frontline SP. Seatle is no longer an option, do we really want to go down that Burns or Cease route? Kepler & or Polanco will not land us a frontline SP, IMO MIA is the best route and IMO it's best to make a reasonable trade before Yamamoto signs & avoid the feeding fenzy that'll follow. After the dust settles following our frontline SP trade can we fully evaluate our situation & what we can do.

Posted

Was tendering Farmer a mistake? I thought they could find a team to pay his salary and give them a low level prospect. With several stop gap middle infield options on the market I am not sure he can be moved. The Twins might have been better off putting his salary towards pitching.

Posted
9 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins are always listening on any and all trade offers. I'm skeptical that the Twins are hoping to trade Polanco and Kepler to save money. They are hoping to turn these guys who will soon be gone into players who will be around and feel like they can be covered by others if the return is decent; a win-win situation. 

Vazquez will be difficult to trade for a reasonable return and the money saved will be used to bring in an inferior player unless the Twins manage a major trade that includes a catcher coming back. Farmer makes sense as a utility player for the Twins still but we should expect him to be traded for a minor league kid with some hope for the future or as the tail end of a package of players in a bigger trade.

There has been a constant chorus of comments that suggest trading Polanco and Kepler to free up money in order to sign a free agent pitcher. I would be flabbergasted if that happened. It does make sense to probe the market in order to obtain value for any of the Twins players. It makes even more sense if those players are not likely to be a part of the team 2-3 years. 

Polanco has two more years and Max has one under contract. Neither can return a player who will help in 2024 by themselves. Either can be part of a larger trade to bring in a player that is impactful for 2024.

A much bigger decision, one that can be deferred easily, is how the Twins see using three young players for two positions. Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee are really third basemen, unless you believe that Carlos Correa will move to first base soon. Julien is rough but pretty much the most likely guy to work out at second base until someone else comes along. Nobody wants to see any of these three leave and I agree, yet it is these three whose names emit from the lips of GMs who seek transactions with the Twins.

Expect more silence.

It’s been pretty widely discussed here that Lee’s tools translate at 3B better than Lewis. CC isn’t going anywhere as you state. Seems Lewis at 2B to replace an inferior defender makes sense. I don’t see any transition though until they get a longer look at Lee in St Paul & a longer look at Julien in the Show. Maybe late summer?

Seems it’s either Lewis to 2B by start of ‘25 or he shifts to LF & Wallner goes to RF.

I don’t think trying to trade Polanco as a stand alone asset is going to bring a great return but him, with Winder, and a good prospect from AAA level may do the trick. Club needs pitching & money to allow that to happen. Gotta move Jorge…………or trade Julien in his spot and get a lower cost arm in trade…….no sense in having these two guys on the roster together other than to hedge against Polanco’s fragile physical state & probable injury.

Posted
10 hours ago, Paul D said:

I had thought that the Twins would match up with the Red Sox because the Sox have no useful second baseman on their roster.  There have been Merrifield rumors, but I have yet to see anything on Polanco.  I did make a comment on the Red Sox page of The Athletic and Jen McCaffrey commented that the Sox are looking for a good defender.  To my eyes it looks like Polanco fits the bill, but she stated that his analytics have him as below average.  I'm guessing that this may be contributing to the lack of activity at this point.

Not sure about how to dive into the analytics but I do recall in September seeing Farmer was better than either Julien or Polanco at 2B in ‘23. I think he was a slight plus & Julien was neutral & Polanco was slightly subpar. I see the Sox reluctance because of his last couple years of a lack of durability! What would we get in return is my real question?

Posted

The Lourdes Gurriel contract (3 years $42M) is another read on Max Kepler's market value. If he's worth $14M a season and getting paid $10M he doesn't have a whole lot of excess trade value. It is also another data point that Kepler is unlikely to get a $22M qualifying offer next winter.

Posted
14 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Was tendering Farmer a mistake? I thought they could find a team to pay his salary and give them a low level prospect. With several stop gap middle infield options on the market I am not sure he can be moved. The Twins might have been better off putting his salary towards pitching.

Farmer would get snapped up on waivers.

Posted
8 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Was tendering Farmer a mistake? I thought they could find a team to pay his salary and give them a low level prospect. With several stop gap middle infield options on the market I am not sure he can be moved. The Twins might have been better off putting his salary towards pitching.

I am getting a little nervous about that as well.  Still he was a league average bat last year and he can actually play shortstop although depending on the metric might be a bit below average there in the field.  He can also play all infield positions including first base and he can play left field in a pinch as well. 

I still believe there are teams out there that could use his skill set and he is nice backup insurance for Short as well.  I don't expect a heavy return but I still think they will be able to trade him.  To your point though not sure how badly any particular team needs him so hard to say if they can make a deal or not.

Posted
39 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I agree with the FO that our solution to our needs is the trade market. Yet anyone that thinks that any team that needs Kepler or Polanco will offer us anything more than a bunch of worthless players & poor lotto tickets will be IMO very disappointed. We won't get anything close to what they are worth to us! Vazquez is worse where we'll have to pay someone to take him & then pay for a far inferior substitute. Farmer is a valuable quality INF piece.

Our main need is a frontline SP. Seatle is no longer an option, do we really want to go down that Burns or Cease route? Kepler & or Polanco will not land us a frontline SP, IMO MIA is the best route and IMO it's best to make a reasonable trade before Yamamoto signs & avoid the feeding fenzy that'll follow. After the dust settles following our frontline SP trade can we fully evaluate our situation & what we can do.

Burnes is a one year move & not very attractive. Sox won’t trade Cease to Division foe & it would be weird to send them anyone decent as well.

Farmer is a keeper as you elude to above.

Kepler & Polanco need to be hooked with a couple others from the organization to make any return Twins would get worthwhile.

How about a guy with some risk (all have risk) that could be picked up as a FA for 2 years and maybe $11-$13M……..make the 2nd year his option. Mike Clevinger - 9W - 9L with a bad White Sox team in 2023 - 131 innings pitched and a 3.77 ERA……..between him & Paddack & Varland we should be able to cover the lost starters innings with effective arms!

Posted

I don't think tendering Farmer was a mistake.  He's still a decent SS and hits lefties pretty well.  His versatility around the IF gives him value.  There are still teams looking for a SS so a trade is very likely to me.  The fact the Twins haven't made a move of any kind yet is very consistent with the Twins M.O.  I don't think anything happens until there are a few more big moves that sharpen the market parameters (Yamamoto and Snell signing, Bellinger signing) and the Twins don't sit down at the table until early 2024.  

I agree with the sentiment that our #1 priority is a frontline SP.  Getting that guy who could be our #2 could be accomplished either by trade or FA.  But the kind of guy we can get varies depending on which route you take.  A veteran FA like Giolito or Bauer is the type of pitcher you could slot at #2.  But they're not jumping at a Twins offer of $15 million per year until some big pitching dominos fall.  

A trade is more likely to involve a Miller/Woo from Seattle or a Trevor Rogers from Miami level pitcher than a Corbin Burnes, Jesus Luzardo, or Logan Gilbert level trade.  Miller, Woo or Rogers while talented, haven't done enough to be considered better than Joe Ryan to this point, so any deals involving them would slot them BEHIND Ryan in the rotation.  

Last season improved Kepler's value and lessened Polanco's somewhat.  I think we're all correct in assuming that we're not getting Jesus Luzardo for Kepler and Polanco.  Maybe Trevor Rogers, but then you're banking on the 2021 version of Rogers, not the 2022-2023 version.  That's the tough position the Twins find themselves in.  If they wait too long in FA they won't get a pitcher who will come close to what they need.  They would then be squeezed into a position of having to give up more than they would like via trade to get the right pitcher.

The veteran SP brings a track record.  The trade SP brings potential.  At this point, I would expect teams are low-balling the Twins for Kepler and Polanco.  I'm willing to trade Polanco for prospects or Garrett Mitchell from the Brewers.  To me, Julien is playing 2B and hitting at the top of the order every day.  And Brooks Lee either breaks camp with the Twins or joins shortly thereafter possibly moving Julien to 1B.  Kepler on the other hand, I'm not selling low on.  I have no problem having him on the Twins for all of 2024.  If last year wasn't a mirage he will be a valuable player for the Twins to have in 2024 and we're one year closer to Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins.   

It's too bad the Guardians are a division rival.  They need offense, which we could deal them, and they have SP, which we need.  Here's a list of Cleveland's SP and their BBTV:

Logan Allen  28.4  25 yo.  Shane Bieber  5.6  29 yo.  Tristen McKenzie  45.3  27 yo.  Gavin Williams  46.1  24 yo.  Tanner Bibee  42.6  24 yo.  Daniel Espino  16.2  22 yo.  The obvious target for me is Logan Allen.  He's the most affordable and he's 25 years old.  The Guardians are probably going to trade Bieber.  I think I'd be willing to trade Polanco for Bieber even up. 

We'd be overpaying slightly, but Cleveland would slide Gimenez to SS (they did last year after trading Rosario) and Polanco becomes they're everyday 2B.  The Twins would slot the 29 yo Bieber in at #2 behind Lopez and leave Ryan and Ober at #3 & #4.  The Twins could decide mid-season if they would like to offer an extension to Bieber if things are working out.  He's only 29.  He's the veteran SP that compares to Giolito/Bauer without the immediate outlay of money.  

Posted

Let's look at last off-season. 

On November 18th... The Twins traded Urshela to the Angels and acquired Farmer from the Reds. 

December 16th... The Twins signed Free Agent Christian Vazquez.

December 20th... The Twins signed Joey Gallo. 

January 11th... The Twins signed Carlos Correa. 

January 24th... The Twins acquired Michael A. Taylor. 

February 23rd... The Twins signed free agent... Donovan Solano. 

It might be quiet but it's not like other off-seasons are loud by this time. 

Posted
11 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins are always listening on any and all trade offers. I'm skeptical that the Twins are hoping to trade Polanco and Kepler to save money. They are hoping to turn these guys who will soon be gone into players who will be around and feel like they can be covered by others if the return is decent; a win-win situation. 

Vazquez will be difficult to trade for a reasonable return and the money saved will be used to bring in an inferior player unless the Twins manage a major trade that includes a catcher coming back. Farmer makes sense as a utility player for the Twins still but we should expect him to be traded for a minor league kid with some hope for the future or as the tail end of a package of players in a bigger trade.

There has been a constant chorus of comments that suggest trading Polanco and Kepler to free up money in order to sign a free agent pitcher. I would be flabbergasted if that happened. It does make sense to probe the market in order to obtain value for any of the Twins players. It makes even more sense if those players are not likely to be a part of the team 2-3 years. 

Polanco has two more years and Max has one under contract. Neither can return a player who will help in 2024 by themselves. Either can be part of a larger trade to bring in a player that is impactful for 2024.

A much bigger decision, one that can be deferred easily, is how the Twins see using three young players for two positions. Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee are really third basemen, unless you believe that Carlos Correa will move to first base soon. Julien is rough but pretty much the most likely guy to work out at second base until someone else comes along. Nobody wants to see any of these three leave and I agree, yet it is these three whose names emit from the lips of GMs who seek transactions with the Twins.

Expect more silence.

Agreed. The trade market has still not completely taken shape with Yamamoto just now having dinner with the Mets owner. Nothing will happen until he, Montgomery, and Snell sign, and may even have to wait until guys like Giolito and Stroman are off the market. If the Twins make a trade for a SP, and I think that's a pretty big IF, I don't expect anything until after January 15. I actually don't expect a trade for a #2 starting pitcher. I see the Twins signing Frankie Montas or Michael Lorenzen and rolling with what they have. I do think Polanco gets traded; I just think it's more likely to be for  a solid BP piece plus a AA type guy with upside. Probably a pitcher but maybe a catcher.  

By the way, Happy Holidays to all of you guys. You make following the Twins more fun and more special from out here in SoCal. I'm grateful for that.  

Posted
55 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I don't think tendering Farmer was a mistake.  He's still a decent SS and hits lefties pretty well.  His versatility around the IF gives him value.   

  

 

Agree with your thought that he hit lefties well and he's versatile, which gives him value. BUT, is there another team that wants Kyle Farmer to be their starting shortstop in 2024? I really don't think so. If you think you have a chance to contend you want someone better and if you don't think you'll contend you want someone younger and cheaper. 

Kyle Farmer falls into the hole of being too old and expensive for the role that he is best suited. How many teams can afford a $6.3M utility infielder? I have maintained all off season that Farmer's role would be diminished on the 2024 Twins because the team will have other, equally good options to be the backup shortstop Add in that he'll turn 34 and that he is an average runner at best and there are enough reasons to peg him as a backup and utility player.

The flip side of this is that he is a positive force in the clubhouse and has a history of hitting left handed pitching--two things that make him valuable to the Twins. I'm just not sure if the positives outweigh the negatives for Farmer.

Posted
2 hours ago, Dman said:

I am getting a little nervous about that as well.  Still he was a league average bat last year and he can actually play shortstop although depending on the metric might be a bit below average there in the field.  He can also play all infield positions including first base and he can play left field in a pinch as well. 

I still believe there are teams out there that could use his skill set and he is nice backup insurance for Short as well.  I don't expect a heavy return but I still think they will be able to trade him.  To your point though not sure how badly any particular team needs him so hard to say if they can make a deal or not.

I don't think Farmer's 6M gets the team the kind of pitching they need. It's got to be a trade unless they go nuts and chase Yamamoto or Montgomery. No other free agents fit their needs.

Posted
2 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I'll add that Farmer also can play catcher if needed.  He did not need to last year, but with Rocco catching Vasquez and DH'ing Jeffers it's possible that he could have been needed.  Not that much into a decision, but wanted to add it to what you already said he was valuable for.

Well, I'll be damned. The guy's been here nearly a full year and that's a tidbit I didn't realize. 333 games behind the plate in the minors and dabbled at the MLB level too. Yeah, an emergency third catcher is a pretty good bonus. It was more of a Ryan/Gardy bit, but I really disliked their fear of the infinitesimal chance that pinch hitting for your catcher might mean you have to go an inning or two with an unqualified backstop for one game.  

Posted

Here is a downer of a realistic trade.  Polanco to Milwaukee for Adrian Houser and a prospect.  Houser has 1 year till free agency and has ok numbers.  Can our coaches help add a few ticks to his fastball?  A sweeper?  We get a starter to add to with no long term commitments and a prospect to add to the system.  Milwaukee gets help at their black hole at 2B and an option to do that again in 2025.  
 

We could alter this deal and make it Farmer and a prospect or Sands or Winder for Houser as well.  There could be a few ways to make this deal.  

Posted
6 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Here is a downer of a realistic trade.  Polanco to Milwaukee for Adrian Houser and a prospect.  Houser has 1 year till free agency and has ok numbers.  Can our coaches help add a few ticks to his fastball?  A sweeper?  We get a starter to add to with no long term commitments and a prospect to add to the system.  Milwaukee gets help at their black hole at 2B and an option to do that again in 2025.  
 

We could alter this deal and make it Farmer and a prospect or Sands or Winder for Houser as well.  There could be a few ways to make this deal.  

Sorry, not interested in Houser. Too much contract, too few years and he still slots in behind Ryan and Ober, not ahead of them. 

If they're not going to get BETTER pitching, I'd rather they just stock up St. Paul with more junkballers like Sanchez and Keuchel on MiLB deals for their 'depth'.

Posted
8 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Was tendering Farmer a mistake? I thought they could find a team to pay his salary and give them a low level prospect. With several stop gap middle infield options on the market I am not sure he can be moved. The Twins might have been better off putting his salary towards pitching.

No, not a mistake.  He's a valuable piece, i want him on the team, even though he's overpaid.  

 

Posted
2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Sorry, not interested in Houser. Too much contract, too few years and he still slots in behind Ryan and Ober, not ahead of them. 

If they're not going to get BETTER pitching, I'd rather they just stock up St. Paul with more junkballers like Sanchez and Keuchel on MiLB deals for their 'depth'.

I thought the Twins were only interested in a 1 year deal.  Next year is going to be more expensive then this year and we should still have 5 options with several minor leaguers knocking on the door. I want a better pitcher then Hauser too but the deal fits what the front office is doing.  

Posted
5 minutes ago, Brandon said:

I thought the Twins were only interested in a 1 year deal.  Next year is going to be more expensive then this year and we should still have 5 options with several minor leaguers knocking on the door. I want a better pitcher then Hauser too but the deal fits what the front office is doing.  

I can't imagine the Twins are actively looking to trade for guys with only one year of control. That would be extremely short sighted.

Posted
8 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

It’s been pretty widely discussed here that Lee’s tools translate at 3B better than Lewis. CC isn’t going anywhere as you state. Seems Lewis at 2B to replace an inferior defender makes sense. I don’t see any transition though until they get a longer look at Lee in St Paul & a longer look at Julien in the Show. Maybe late summer?

Seems it’s either Lewis to 2B by start of ‘25 or he shifts to LF & Wallner goes to RF.

I don’t think trying to trade Polanco as a stand alone asset is going to bring a great return but him, with Winder, and a good prospect from AAA level may do the trick. Club needs pitching & money to allow that to happen. Gotta move Jorge…………or trade Julien in his spot and get a lower cost arm in trade…….no sense in having these two guys on the roster together other than to hedge against Polanco’s fragile physical state & probable injury.

I don't think the Twins will ever move Lewis to 2B. Why would you put a guy that has had 2 knee surgeries on 2B and need to make a pivot. I think that would be asking for trouble.

Posted
9 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I can't imagine the Twins are actively looking to trade for guys with only one year of control. That would be extremely short sighted.

I’d absolutely be open to someone with a one year deal left (Corbin Burnes for example) if they can fit in as a high impact starter for 2024. I wouldn’t say the same for someone who wouldn’t slot in as a playoff level arm

Posted
1 hour ago, twinsfansd said:

I don't think the Twins will ever move Lewis to 2B. Why would you put a guy that has had 2 knee surgeries on 2B and need to make a pivot. I think that would be asking for trouble.

I don’t think the double play pivot is anywhere near as dangerous as it used to be when guys were taking out second baseman frequently with takeout slides.

According to guys that are plugged into the Twins, Lewis is better equipped to play second and Lee’s more of a 3B. 

Posted

Would be nice for Lewis to have a full and healthy season in 2024. If he is preparing for 3b, I say let him stay there and get comfortable next to Correa. Figure out 2b after that, be it Lee or Julien. This team needs a healthy season out of Lewis, and he is fine at 3b. He has had so much turmoil (athletically) over the last few years, so put him at 3b for now and keep him there.

If he does eventually move to 2b, fine: just doesn’t have to be right now is all

Posted
2 hours ago, twinsfansd said:

I don't think the Twins will ever move Lewis to 2B. Why would you put a guy that has had 2 knee surgeries on 2B and need to make a pivot. I think that would be asking for trouble.

This has been mol what I have been saying in all of the move RL here or there discussions. Lewis can improve at third base. It is the position he has always been most comfortable playing. He was a 3B in high school and the Twins tried to make him a shortstop and then a brief trial in CF. I don't see him as anywhere but as a corner infielder. Then, it is back to where Brooks Lee plays. The decision impacts potential trades and any addition of either Polanco or Kepler in a package deal.

Posted
9 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Agree with your thought that he hit lefties well and he's versatile, which gives him value. BUT, is there another team that wants Kyle Farmer to be their starting shortstop in 2024? I really don't think so. If you think you have a chance to contend you want someone better and if you don't think you'll contend you want someone younger and cheaper. 

Kyle Farmer falls into the hole of being too old and expensive for the role that he is best suited. How many teams can afford a $6.3M utility infielder? I have maintained all off season that Farmer's role would be diminished on the 2024 Twins because the team will have other, equally good options to be the backup shortstop Add in that he'll turn 34 and that he is an average runner at best and there are enough reasons to peg him as a backup and utility player.

The flip side of this is that he is a positive force in the clubhouse and has a history of hitting left handed pitching--two things that make him valuable to the Twins. I'm just not sure if the positives outweigh the negatives for Farmer.

Don't forget that he got hit in the face with a fastball early last season.  It did quite a bit of damage both physically and mentally.  He was eventually able to shake it off, but it did bring his numbers down.  The guy's a tough competitor and he brings that elusive "grit" to the team.  Of course, it's hard, if not impossible, to measure grit; there are no metrics for it.  But if we lose Farmer, I think we'd lose a lot more than statistics can suggest.

Posted
3 hours ago, twinsfansd said:

I don't think the Twins will ever move Lewis to 2B. Why would you put a guy that has had 2 knee surgeries on 2B and need to make a pivot. I think that would be asking for trouble.

You played baseball? No stress difference on knee joints between SS & 2B. Throwing across your body on balls you are charging from 3B and throwing after you dive to the line to stop a ball behind 3B are tremendous strains on your knee joints. Have had my knee scoped twice and then ligament rebuild. Hip replacement as well. I get joint stress.

The 2nd baseman is protected from contact on plays at 2nd base. Twins have already eluded to the fact that 3B is Lee’s probable fit. Lewis can play 2B or LF or even 1B as far as I’m concerned. Lee & Lewis need to be in the line-up together somehow.

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