Who Do You Trust To Start a Playoff Game?

[Nick Nelson]

Isn't that really the defining question of this offseason? How many starters do the Twins currently have who meet this qualification, and how many more can they find?

Image courtesy of Jim Rassol, Bruce Kluckhohn, Jesse Johnson - USA TODAY Sports

Despite having one of the best rotations in franchise history this past year, the Twins ended up with only two pitchers whom they genuinely trusted to start a playoff game: Pablo López and Sonny Gray.

The All-Star pairing made four starts in the playoffs–one apiece in both the ALWC and the ALDS–and were given the chance to go fairly deep in those games. Meanwhile, significantly less confidence was shown toward Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan and Kenta Maeda. 

Ober pitched Game 1 of the ALDS against Houston and was pulled after three innings, at 43 pitches. He gave up three runs on a pair of homers. Ryan started an elimination Game 4, and was removed after just two innings and 26 pitches. Maeda was trusted seemingly least of all, demoted to a low-leverage bullpen role in which he, too, struggled (4 IP, 3 ER).

The Twins are looking ahead to a season in which they'll be favored to win the division, and aiming to take the next step in the playoffs. A rotation capable of meeting that challenge is crucial. Ultimately, the staff wasn't quite there this year, given the usage and the results beyond López and the now-departed Gray.

As we ponder the outlook for 2024 and what the front office is building from, let's assess the trust level for each of the five starters currently slotted into next year's rotation. For each, I'll call out a few things the pitcher could do next season to improve that level of trust before the postseason rolls around.

Pablo López
Trust Level: 9/10
He pitched like an ace for much of the season and definitely looked the part in the playoffs, holding the Blue Jays and Astros to one run over 12 innings in his two starts--both of them wins. Not sure what more you could ask for, other than cutting out the occasional clunker that inflated his regular-season ERA a bit.

What can he do to be a more trusted playoff option?
Just stay the course. If López pitches exactly the same way in 2024 as he did in 2023, he's a viable Game 1 playoff starter, and that's a great place to start. From here, however, things get murkier.

Bailey Ober
Trust Level: 6/10
Over the course of the season, Ober was quietly one of the most effective starters in the majors, but he wore down late in the year under the burden of a career-high workload. The Twins sent him down in late August, after he posted a 6.75 ERA over a six-start stretch. He returned a few weeks later and then made the one playoff start, but Ober never looked quite the same after the All-Star break.

What can he do to be a more trusted playoff option?
Stay strong and durable throughout the marathon. The version of Ober we saw in the first half, wherein he held opponents to a .207/.259/.345 slash line with a 2.61 ERA in 14 starts, is a clear-cut playoff starter. He just needs to maintain that form into September and October. After going from 70 innings pitched in 2022 to 170 in 2023, he'll be much more equipped for the task next year.

Joe Ryan
Trust Level: 5/10
Much like Ober, Ryan experienced a steep drop-off after a strong start in 2023, posting a 2.98 ERA in his first 15 starts and a 6.62 ERA in the last 14. The team's shattered confidence in him was made clear by his usage in the playoffs, where Ryan made one "start" and was essentially used as an opener. He threw fewer pitches (26) than any other Twin who appeared in the postseason.

What can he do to be a more trusted playoff option?
Much like Ober, Ryan is a quality playoff option if he's pitching the way he did in the first half. But he needs to prove he can carry that form into the end of the season. He also experienced a dropoff in his solid rookie season, when his 2.89 ERA through the first 15 starts gave way to 4.36 in the final 12 starts. Hopefully the righthander learned a lesson from tanking his promising sophomore campaign by hiding an injury.

Chris Paddack
Trust Level: 3/10
The Twins seem convinced that Paddack can step in as a No. 2 or 3 starter next year, and their faith might be well-founded. He returned with a bang in late 2023. The 27-year-old looked excellent in September and October, throwing fire out of the bullpen. Even if he does channel this success back into a starting role, the problem is that it's tough to envision Paddack remaining effective into October. He's thrown 27 combined innings over the past two years. 

What can he do to be a more trusted playoff option?
In addition to showing he can recapture the front-line starter profile of his rookie year in 2019 (140 IP, 3.33 ERA), Paddack needs to find a way to remain strong and effective through the finish line. As Ober exemplifies, even very good pitchers are bound to run out of gas when their bodies aren't conditioned for the rigors of six months and almost 200 innings. The Twins might need to get creative with his handling if they want Paddack to be a factor in their playoff rotation.

Louie Varland
Trust Level: 3/10
Unlike Paddack, Varland doesn't pose an obvious durability concern. He's been very healthy and dependable. The issue here is performance, and whether the righty can elevate to a level where he'd be in line for a playoff start. Right now, his future as a postseason difference-maker appears to be out of the bullpen, but he'd obviously be a much bigger asset if he could tap into some of that relief dominance in a starting role.

What can he do to be a more trusted playoff option?
Varland has shown signs of being a good MLB starter at times, and one who can handle the pressure of, say, making his major-league debut in Yankee Stadium. With nearly 100 MLB innings under his belt, he's ahead of the game when it comes to poise and stamina, He just needs to advance his stuff to a level where it's going to play against elite lineups multiple times on the biggest stage. If Varland can effectively incorporate the cutter that contributed to his bullpen breakthrough into his starting mix, that could be an interesting development. 

What Do the Twins Need?
Obviously, it will be helpful if any of the four non-López starters elevate their trust level, but regardless, it seems clear that the Twins need to add at least one outside starter this offseason who checks in with a trust level of a least 8/10 (which is around where I'd have pegged Gray).

That's the main lens through which I'll be looking at any offseason additions to the starting corps. It's less about upgrading the rotation, and more about making upgrades to the playoff rotation–which is why adding anything less than a Maeda-caliber starter would be unproductive.

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[notoriousgod71]

Lopez

 

Clearly his own manager doesn't trust Ryan.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I put a healthy Ryan over Ober. But this is a fantastic way to look at it

[weneedneshek]

Asking this question really frames what the expectation needs to be for this offseason. I've slowly seen the window shift from 'top of the order starter' to 'middle of the order starter' as everyone gets comfortable with the front office's messaging. The minimum needs to be someone who is a clear upgrade from Ryan and Ober, anything less is a failure in my opinion

[Cory Engelhardt]

11 minutes ago, weneedneshek said:

Asking this question really frames what the expectation needs to be for this offseason. I've slowly seen the window shift from 'top of the order starter' to 'middle of the order starter' as everyone gets comfortable with the front office's messaging. The minimum needs to be someone who is a clear upgrade from Ryan and Ober, anything less is a failure in my opinion

I don’t think a playoff level start equals a mid rotation starter. 
that said;

I do think the Twins coaching staff, their infrastructure if you will, along with their defense, can bring a guy in now who some would believe is a mid rotation guy, and get him to the point that he is a playoff game level starter.

For example, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan.

I still think Tyler Mahle was in that mold. I’d still love to bring him back this offseason.

 

[Karbo]

4 guys with durability issues. Hopefully Ryan and Ober stay heathy and can improve on the durability with a season behind them. Varland is a bit of a wildcard. Paddack will be on an innings limit for sure and may be a bullpen arm by playoff time.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Nick, Fascinating and spot on, article. I'm curious, are there any current (therefore Koufax and Gibson are unavailable) pitchers you would trust 10/10 to start a playoff game in 2024? As an aside, I would trust the 2023 version of Sonny Gray 10/10 to start a playoff game in 2023.  I am curious what more Gray could have done in 2023, to have garnered a 10/10 rating from you? The Twins are really going to miss him in 2024. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Ryan was injured and tried to fight through it in 2023. He should be fine, and certainly has been durable. He and Pablo are the two guys right now who clearly have the trust to go a 3rd time through the order.

Ober was great last year, and I hope he can take a next step. I hope he can get to the point that 3rd time through the order can be his. We will see.

Paddack, yes, he has had a couple of tommy John’s, but he has a year removed now and showed he is fully healthy 2 months ago. 
 

I won’t argue about Varland in the rotation or not. He will be on the pitching staff, but he certainly hasn’t show durability issues.

I want someone coming in who is coming off a healthy year, who won’t be on an innings limit, and will be ok with going a 3rd time through the order 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just now, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Nick, Fascinating and spot on, article. I'm curious, are there any current (therefore Koufax and Gibson are unavailable) pitchers you would trust 10/10 to start a playoff game in 2024? As an aside, I would trust the 2023 version of Sonny Gray 10/10 to start a playoff game in 2023.  I am curious what more Gray could have done in 2023, to have garnered a 10/10 rating from you? The Twins are really going to miss him in 2024. 

We will see if he ever gets to that level again. I have a hard time saying 2024 Gray will pitch to the level of 2023 Gray. Not betting against it, I just don’t know that I see it is all

[chpettit19]

I'm pretty much right in line with Nick. That's how I rank these guys, too.

Unless Pablo falls apart I have no problem with him starting a playoff game. And I was against him being the guy they got from the Marlins so that shows what I know.

Ober is good when he's strong. If he maintains his strength through the whole season I'd trust him as the #3 guy for sure, and maybe even the #2. He's had a ton of injury problems, and clearly tired as the season got longer. Which is obviously to be expected when he absolutely crushed his previous lifetime high in innings. If he stays healthy for a second straight year, and doesn't clearly tire, I'd have him as my #3 guy without much concern. Although, he can get a little homer prone, and that's not ideal for a playoff starter.

I'm not sold on Ryan, especially in the playoffs. As Nick noted, he didn't hold up well in the 2nd half of 2022 either, so I don't think we can just put it all on the hidden injury. His fastball can be dominant despite it's lack of velo when he's locating it well. His off-speed stuff isn't very good, though, and that leads to a homerun prone pitcher when he's not dotting his fastball. HRs kill you in the playoffs. My biggest question with him is if he can come into 2024 with a couple off-speed offerings that can truly be trusted. That's the next step in his development. We'll see.

Paddack has the best stuff of the guys below Lopez, and maybe even as good as Lopez's. But it feels like he's almost guaranteed to have an Ober/Ryan style second half swoon. Will be interesting to see how they handle him. I think he has the talent to be the guy to jump above Ober, but I wouldn't go into 2024 expecting that out of him come playoff time. Maybe 2025, but not 2024.

Varland is a regular season starter to me. I think having him start through August and then join the pen again (like him and Maeda did last year) is likely the best use of him. I just don't see a guy who can get much higher than he currently is. If one of the prospects has a good showing in their injury fill-in shots this year Varland may join Jax and Duran in the pen come 2025. I'd bet that's a pretty disappointing result for him, but he's 26 and the kids are breathing down his neck. As a fan I'd be quite happy with a Duran, Jax, Varland back end of the pen if that's how it turns out come 2025. 2024 may be Varland's last chance at the rotation. And he deserves that chance. Just not sold he can really claim that spot moving forward.

I think the Twins should be doing whatever they can to get another Lopez style trade done on someone they'd either already control for another 4+ years, or someone they could extend. I think locking in Lopez and another legit playoff arm through 2027 would put them in a place to not have to worry much at all about pitching moving forward and they can put all their efforts into improving the offense. Lopez, co-#1, Ober, Ryan, Paddack/youth would be a starting situation that shouldn't need much help at all over the next handful of years if they can pull it off.

[CRF]

I vote for Les Straker!

[mnfireman]

Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Paddack have all started play-off games...

[mikelink45]

They have to hope Paddack becomes the guy they envision because the other guys are good for the season, but not the shut down guy that the playoffs demand.  

So who will we trade with?

[JD-TWINS]

49 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I don’t think a playoff level start equals a mid rotation starter. 
that said;

I do think the Twins coaching staff, their infrastructure if you will, along with their defense, can bring a guy in now who some would believe is a mid rotation guy, and get him to the point that he is a playoff game level starter.

For example, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan.

I still think Tyler Mahle was in that mold. I’d still love to bring him back this offseason.

 

I live in Cincinnati and, trust me, watching Mahle pitch is a lot like watching Emilio Pagan. Constantly waiting for the inexplicable walk after up 1-2 in a count and then a HR! All the “baseball pundits” said when Mahle got out of Cinti he would not give up as many HR due to bigger confines. First start in Minneapolis, 3 HR.

Pretty good talent but not a good mental approach - always trying to strike guys out and then high pitch count and then walks and then HR’s. He’ll drive you crazy.

[hitterscount]

There isn't a team out there that has 5 shutdown guys, the Dodger's with their 500 million payroll only have 3. The Twins absolutely need one more dependable arm, but at some point you need a lineup that can score runs. There were multiple opportunities in the Houston series where a clutch hit could have changed game 2 and 4. 

Would love to see them go get Corbin Burnes and figure out the OF and 1st. They are so close, open the purse strings just a bit and shore up the areas of need.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

10 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

There isn't a team out there that has 5 shutdown guys, the Dodger's with their 500 million payroll only have 3. The Twins absolutely need one more dependable arm, but at some point you need a lineup that can score runs. There were multiple opportunities in the Houston series where a clutch hit could have changed game 2 and 4. 

Would love to see them go get Corbin Burnes and figure out the OF and 1st. They are so close, open the purse strings just a bit and shore up the areas of need.  

100% in favor of adding Burnes somehow. And I do think a healthy Kirilloff (with help, maybe that's a healthy Miranda and/or another outside addition like Rhys Hoskins) can cover 1B.

Buxton being health-ish feels like a pipedream, but if he is, then that solves that too right?

[JD-TWINS]

To me, expectations need to be tempered. There is no perfect team - no perfect staff. This, “we need to trade for a co-#1 or a #2 guy to start playoff games”, or else, is a little over the top.

Arizona was in the World Series in ‘23 & take a look at their staff. They won 84 games during the season. Chins up Twins fans!!

Let’s be realistic, Gray was 15-19 in his starts (lack of run support, true) a .441 winning % in ‘23. He won a playoff game and got out of a major jam v. Toronto by picking a guy off 2B. His other playoff start wasn’t good!! The team didn’t lose some savior! He was very good and fun to watch but he’s not Tom Seaver.

If we got Lugo (as an example), who carried a 3.53 ERA last year, for $13M it would be a huge plus. Added depth to keep himself, Ober, & Paddack fresh through the year with Varland contributing heavily as a starter.

Playoff Staff:

12 guys……….

Gm #1 Lopez

Gm #2 Ryan - Paddack as a piggyback

Gm #3 Ober - Varland as a piggyback

Gm #4 Lugo if needed with short rest days, doubtful

Funderburk - Thielbar - Canterino/Alcala - Jax - Stewart - Duran

Seems this is a very competitive staff up against nearly any other team.

Can we trade Polanco & Vazquez (kick in $3M/year to make happen)? This allows team to then take current payroll down to $100M & sign Jordan Montgomery for $26M……I like that as well but don’t see it as a do or fail!

 

[JD-TWINS]

2 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

100% in favor of adding Burnes somehow. And I do think a healthy Kirilloff (with help, maybe that's a healthy Miranda and/or another outside addition like Rhys Hoskins) can cover 1B.

Buxton being health-ish feels like a pipedream, but if he is, then that solves that too right?

Burnes as a rental at $14M for a bunch of trade capital & then sign Hoskins………that’s a pipe dream.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I don't know. If you pair Polanco with a prospect or two (say, David Festa and someone else) then the difference is only adding 4 million right?

I'd imagine another of Farmer or Kepler will be traded, which will also lower the payroll. 

I don't see Hoskins getting 20 million per year, more like 14-16 in 2024.

Anyway, that's not CRAZY, and certainly would fall in line with what we are all guessing would be the drop in their payroll right?

[Doctor Gast]

Yes, Nick, this subject is very relevent. Our focus needs to be about advancing in the post season. Lopez has the record & experience that'd envy any WS hopeful. Ryan & Ober have made good progress in stamina in '23 but they are still young, I expect further progress in '24 yet still need to take into consideration they are still young. Both Ryan & Ober now have limited PS experience that will help. But we still need an outside SP to add to our rotation.

I'd shoot much higher than Maeda, We need another Lopez type trade. Lopez was ranked upper 2nd tier when we got him but advanced well into top tier , We don't have to find a (finished product) '23 Gray substitute. An early Lopez type will be just be fine. Then we might have 3 or 4 to choose from along with Lopez to help us advance in the PS.

[Major League Ready]

29 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

To me, expectations need to be tempered. There is no perfect team - no perfect staff. This, “we need to trade for a co-#1 or a #2 guy to start playoff games”, or else, is a little over the top.

Arizona was in the World Series in ‘23 & take a look at their staff. They won 84 games during the season. Chins up Twins fans!!

Let’s be realistic, Gray was 15-19 in his starts (lack of run support, true) a .441 winning % in ‘23. He won a playoff game and got out of a major jam v. Toronto by picking a guy off 2B. His other playoff start wasn’t good!! The team didn’t lose some savior! He was very good and fun to watch but he’s not Tom Seaver.

If we got Lugo (as an example), who carried a 3.53 ERA last year, for $13M it would be a huge plus. Added depth to keep himself, Ober, & Paddack fresh through the year with Varland contributing heavily as a starter.

Playoff Staff:

12 guys……….

Gm #1 Lopez

Gm #2 Ryan - Paddack as a piggyback

Gm #3 Ober - Varland as a piggyback

Gm #4 Lugo if needed with short rest days, doubtful

Funderburk - Thielbar - Canterino/Alcala - Jax - Stewart - Duran

Seems this is a very competitive staff up against nearly any other team.

Can we trade Polanco & Vazquez (kick in $3M/year to make happen)? This allows team to then take current payroll down to $100M & sign Jordan Montgomery for $26M……I like that as well but don’t see it as a do or fail!

 

To add to your point, the Rangers pitching was suspect until the deadline.  I also agree with your point about spending $14m on Burnes plus the trade capital for a 1 year rental is not happening. 

[mnfireman]

Optioning the future for a rental SP is not smart/sustainable baseball. This team has a core that will mostly be together through 2027, but has new wave of prospects coming after that, and has already traded off some pieces that may have been part of the future for help now. They cannot keep emptying the cupboard and coming up short, its not good business.

So, short story long, develop the pitching needed, fill seasonal needs as necessary and go forward with the goal of winning the WS, not trying to win a play-off series this year.

[tony&rodney]

I am fine with any one of the current five on the roster starting a playoff game because it means we are in the playoffs. The way the pitchers are ranked is more or less how they are at this moment. All of the Twins current starting pitchers are at risk of injury and all could  have positive developmental steps forward too. The Twins knew that Ryan and Ober were less than 100% for the playoffs and thus they were well behind Lopez and Gray. We shall see how it plays out, but the odds today are pretty much what Nick has written.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I don't know. If you pair Polanco with a prospect or two (say, David Festa and someone else) then the difference is only adding 4 million right?

I'd imagine another of Farmer or Kepler will be traded, which will also lower the payroll. 

I don't see Hoskins getting 20 million per year, more like 14-16 in 2024.

Anyway, that's not CRAZY, and certainly would fall in line with what we are all guessing would be the drop in their payroll right?

It’s doable - don’t like displacing Kirilloff, our “Natural” just 18 months ago. Theoretically, he will be healthy and even stronger than ‘23 and available April 1. BA of .270 in first “full” season with a .793 OPS. IMO, he needs to play & start 130 games. Wallner & Kepler both had OPS north of .800 in ‘23.

I like Kirilloff and hope he can reach his potential of 20 HR & .285 BA in a near perfect world.

As I state essentially every day here, I take whatever assets we think Brewers will take for Burnes & shift off of him to obtain Devin Williams. He’s at $6.25M in ‘23 (which we can afford while keeping Polanco, etc.) & under control for TWO years. He can affect 115 games over 2 seasons. This makes our Pen elite and lessens the burden on the starters. Then, trade Polanco and maybe Vazquez (throw in $3M per year for salary help) to sign a Wacha or Lugo or such. Varland locked in as a starter.

Williams at the deadline might be more workable? Plant the seed now with Milwaukee.

To me, everyone not on 26 man nor Lee & Jenkins is tradable.

[jorgenswest]

I expect Ryan and Ober to take a step forward this year. I would trust them as much as I would have trusted Andrew Heaney and Jon Gray as a Ranger fan. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I don't at all think Hoskins would displace a healthy Kirilloff. Hoskins, to me, would be replacing the at bats that Solano had in 2023. 

If Kirilloff is healthy, he would be in the lineup, and probably at 1B. Hoskins could play 1B (against tough lefties for sure) as well as DH, but they could plop him in LF occasionally too. 

And of course, IF Kirilloff is not healthy at points, then we have very good insurance right?

[tony&rodney]

8 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I expect Ryan and Ober to take a step forward this year. I would trust them as much as I would have trusted Andrew Heaney and Jon Gray as a Ranger fan. 

Add Varland too. I trust all three of Ryan, Ober, and Varland as much as i would trust Heaney and Gray, two good pitchers. The three Twins are getting better.

[Beast]

Bailey Ober is a quality playoff option?  In what universe?  He gave up as many HRs and he had Ks against the Astros.  He gave up 6 ER in 4.1 innings.  He hasn’t shown even a glimmer of being a guy you can trust to hold down the best lineups in the league in a playoff game.

He’s a fine back end started in the regular season for a team scratching and clawing to win the worst division in the history of baseball.  But, he is not even in the ballpark of a quality playoff option.

Joe Ryan is such a quality option that a team with 2 good starting pitchers allowed him to pitch 2 innings in one appearance in 6 playoff games.  He gave up HRs at a higher rate than almost anybody in the MLB last year.  You can’t be giving that guy starts in the playoffs and tell fans with a straight face you’re doing everything you can to win a World Series.

Chris Paddack has started 5 games since 2021.  His last two seasons was a regular starter (12 starts in 2020, 22 in 2021, he had a negative WAR and ERAs of 4.73 and 5.07.  The Padres gave him a postseason start in 2020 and he gave up 8 hits and 6 runs in 2.1 innings.

I get we want to be positive and all that.  But believing we have more than 1 starter we can use in playoffs is based on nothing other blind, biased, unfounded, Hail Mary level hope.  This is not a good starting rotation after Lopez.

Maybe we just differ on the definition of “quality option.”  If you mean guys that physically stand in the mound and throw pitches, I guess they’re quality options.  My definition of quality is a guy that can go win you a playoff game without high end run support.

[PatPfund]

Great article, and pretty much why I have zero interest in the Twins trading-for or signing position players until they figure the whole "trusted starter" thing.

For every position question (CF? LF? RF? C? 1B? 2B?) I can give a plausible internal answer (Martin/Buxton/Castro, Wallner/Larnach/Gordon/Castro/Kirilloff, Max/Wallner, Camargo if you trade Vazquez, Kirilloff/Miranda/Julien, Julien/Polanco/Farmer).

But there really is no plausible MLB-ready starter, let alone a playoff-trusted one, evident in the Twins' system. They need to add from outside, and shouldn't waste salary or prospects on non-essentials until secure the arm.

[hitterscount]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Burnes as a rental at $14M for a bunch of trade capital & then sign Hoskins………that’s a pipe dream.

They could extend him with a contract offer a little higher than Lopez's. Burnes - Lopez would secure the SP for the next 4 years.