Who Do You Trust To Start a Playoff Game?

[arby58]

3 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Nick, Fascinating and spot on, article. I'm curious, are there any current (therefore Koufax and Gibson are unavailable) pitchers you would trust 10/10 to start a playoff game in 2024? As an aside, I would trust the 2023 version of Sonny Gray 10/10 to start a playoff game in 2023.  I am curious what more Gray could have done in 2023, to have garnered a 10/10 rating from you? The Twins are really going to miss him in 2024. 

You're 10/10 on the 2023 postseason Sonny Gray who gave up 5 runs (4 earned), 8 hits (2 of which left the yard), in 4 innings pitched against Houston? THAT Sonny Gray?

[Brandon]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I don't know. If you pair Polanco with a prospect or two (say, David Festa and someone else) then the difference is only adding 4 million right?

I'd imagine another of Farmer or Kepler will be traded, which will also lower the payroll. 

I don't see Hoskins getting 20 million per year, more like 14-16 in 2024.

Anyway, that's not CRAZY, and certainly would fall in line with what we are all guessing would be the drop in their payroll right?

The issue with getting Hoskins is the 2025 payroll.  There are big raises coming and some of them are already known and built in already.  

[arby58]

4 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I put a healthy Ryan over Ober. But this is a fantastic way to look at it

The point that Ober went from 70 to 170 innings pitched is well taken. I won't trust Ryan as a number two starter until he gets another quality pitch so he can drop his fast ball usage to something under 50 percent - preferably increased command of the sweeper. That will keep more of his pitches from landing in the left and right field seats.

[Brandon]

After reading this article it makes me think the Twins should wait until the trade deadLine to get that starter. The moves Milwaukee is making I doubt they sell Burnes and go for it.  Now at the trade deadline if they are out of it….

on Paddack, I wonder if 2 or 3 planned 10-15 day DL stints to rest is an allowable DL stint by the league?  The Twins should do something like this more than once to help limit his workload and keep him fresh for the playoff run.

[jmlease1]

I'm still a big believer in Joe Ryan; his biggest hiccup this season was trying to play through an injury and hiding it from the training staff. That's a mistake, but it comes from a good place. I wouldn't have a problem with him starting a playoff game, and I think his short stint in the playoff game had more to do with it being an elimination game where there was no reason not to empty out all the resources than the team losing faith in him.

Ober is a quality starter as well; no fear there either, though it would help if the team doesn't think he needs a break to keep him going through the season.

(Obviously, there's no question on Pablo Lopez!)

Paddack is a biggest question mark to me than either Ober or Ryan: we don't know how he'll transition back to starting, and we don't know if he's got a 3rd pitch to keep people from keying on his fastball or sitting on the change.

[Cory Engelhardt]

39 minutes ago, Brandon said:

The issue with getting Hoskins is the 2025 payroll.  There are big raises coming and some of them are already known and built in already.  

I’d imagine Hoskins gets a 1 year deal, or a 1 year deal with an option. Things like that work itself out

[nicksaviking]

26 minutes ago, Brandon said:

After reading this article it makes me think the Twins should wait until the trade deadLine to get that starter. The moves Milwaukee is making I doubt they sell Burnes and go for it.  Now at the trade deadline if they are out of it….

on Paddack, I wonder if 2 or 3 planned 10-15 day DL stints to rest is an allowable DL stint by the league?  The Twins should do something like this more than once to help limit his workload and keep him fresh for the playoff run.

Midseason trades are done out of desperation though, while offseason trades are done out of optimism.

Comparing this front office's success in trades during these time frames, it seems clear that they need to do this in the offseason.

[Cory Engelhardt]

38 minutes ago, arby58 said:

The point that Ober went from 70 to 170 innings pitched is well taken. I won't trust Ryan as a number two starter until he gets another quality pitch so he can drop his fast ball usage to something under 50 percent - preferably increased command of the sweeper. That will keep more of his pitches from landing in the left and right field seats.

When healthy, through the end of June, Ryan was pitching every bit as well as Lopez or Gray. His fastball/splitter combo is pretty elite. 

[KBJ1]

Corbin Burns isn't realistic. Devin Williams is however and a strong bullpen like that can carry a team a long ways!

None of these "Pundits " seem to address the gaping hole in the Twins offense -  LF. Lourdes Gurriel is sitting there for 4yrs @60M for the taking.

RH 5 tool power hitter who does NOT strikeout, hits for average,  power, speed and excellent defense. What are we waiting for? As much as we may love Kepler, he is completely redundant with Wallner. Trade both Kepler & Polanco and free up $20M to trade and sign or sign a #2 SP.

We would still have money for Gurriel.

CF & 1B we have covered with players in the system. LF is and has been a gaping hole since Rosario left. You could not draw up on paper a more affordable perfect match for the Twins offensive needs than Gurriel. I don't get it? 

Discuss....

[Brandon]

33 minutes ago, KBJ1 said:

Corbin Burns isn't realistic. Devin Williams is however and a strong bullpen like that can carry a team a long ways!

None of these "Pundits " seem to address the gaping hole in the Twins offense -  LF. Lourdes Gurriel is sitting there for 4yrs @60M for the taking.

RH 5 tool power hitter who does NOT strikeout, hits for average,  power, speed and excellent defense. What are we waiting for? As much as we may love Kepler, he is completely redundant with Wallner. Trade both Kepler & Polanco and free up $20M to trade and sign or sign a #2 SP.

We would still have money for Gurriel.

CF & 1B we have covered with players in the system. LF is and has been a gaping hole since Rosario left. You could not draw up on paper a more affordable perfect match for the Twins offensive needs than Gurriel. I don't get it? 

Discuss....

We had a top offense after the all star break last season is why you don't hear anyone talking about the offense.  While it can improve.  we do have some internal improvements we are pretty confident in happening like Correa bouncing back even if not to previous levels he is likely to bounce back better then last year.  Lewis for a full season is a big improvement as well.  Buxton is looking more like an OF per reports.  and full seasons from Wallner and Julien and more playing time for Jeffers.  This all adds up.  

Vs we lost 2 starting pitchers and a reliever in FA and we need to replace at least one starter who can be trusted to start in the playoffs.

Also I keep hearing Devin Williams from Milwaukee.  I hate to burst your bubble but it seems Milwaukee is going for it. at least by the moves they have made so far.  If they get a hitter you know they are going for it so they wont trade their elite pitchers maybe at the all star break if they fall out of contention.  but resigning Miley and extending their phenom who will be a rookie next year points to trying again.  I can see them resigning Carlos Santana for 1B and if they can get another hitter like Cron or someone to DH and another 100-110 OPS+ hitter They could have enough offense with their pitching to make a run.  

[jdgoin]

They've got probably #2 starter, maybe #1, in Lopez. He has multiple above-average, to plus pitches with command of them. His ability to use his mix gives him ability to get through a lineup and make adjustments. He is the only one I would have true confidence in as a playoff starter right now.

Between Ober and Ryan they are probably current 4th starters. Ryan I believe has the chance to turn himself into a 3rd starter. Ryan isn't all that different than Paddack prior to Paddack's 2nd TJ. Unique approach with the fastball. Paddack had the CH, but no real breaking ball. 

Ober is more touch and feel. He is reliant on his command and feel for his CH. If he had a better ability to keep get the ball on the ground and avoid potential big innings you might be able to put a 3rd starter grade on him. Some people still might put a 3rd starter grade on him. However, if I am a GM I am looking to upgrade on someone like Ober at The Deadline if I believe I am a true contender. 

Paddack is a complete unknown right now as a starter.

 

[arby58]

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

When healthy, through the end of June, Ryan was pitching every bit as well as Lopez or Gray. His fastball/splitter combo is pretty elite. 

Through the end of June, Ryan had a 3.44 ERA. while Gray's was 2.67. Ryan's was better than Lopez' 4.24, but not really in Gray's stratosphere. The real problem, which I alluded to, was keeping the ball in the ballpark. Through the end of June, he'd given up 13 HRs. Gray 3.

[sweetmusicviola16]

I think the rankings are spot on. But would like to see someone acquired who could fit in behind Lopez into the #2 slot. If so Ober at #3 and Ryan at #4 could give us the best rotation in the game. The options are to open up the purse strings and go after Jordan Montgomery or trade for another guy like Lopez who you can extend. A couple names: Freddy Peralta, Edward Cabrera, Logan Gilbert, Andrew Abbott, etc

[Cory Engelhardt]

34 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Through the end of June, Ryan had a 3.44 ERA. while Gray's was 2.67. Ryan's was better than Lopez' 4.24, but not really in Gray's stratosphere. The real problem, which I alluded to, was keeping the ball in the ballpark. Through the end of June, he'd given up 13 HRs. Gray 3.

Through June 2023

Joe Ryan         96 2/3 innings, 79 hits, 105 k's, 15 walks, era of 3.44, FIP of 3.36

Sonny Gray    87 2/3 innings, 80 hits, 89 k's, 33 walks, era of 2.67, FIP of 2.80.

Pablo Lopez   102 innings, 87 hits, 126 k's, 30 walks, era of 4.24, FIP of 3.37

 

Gray threw the least amount of innings of the 3, and his homerun rate (I'd argue) was unsustainable, but all 3 were legit at that point. Ryan injured himself and tried to pitch through it to poor results, but his FIP was every bit as good as Lopez at that time.

Ryan's homerun rate is still closer to league average. Gray's homerun rate in 2023 is unsustainable/lucky ongoing, or at least that's what I'd argue.

 

[Danchat]

Ober and Ryan would have been fine starting a playoff game if it were in the first half / 75% point of the season, but they both seemed to run out of gas / momentum. Heck, Ryan got sent to the minors at the end of the year. At their best you could trust them, but they'd be doomed if they reach the playoffs with the same version of their 2023 September selves.

Paddack is a wildcard, he could return to being a quality starter like he was in San Diego or he could have a rocky "first year off TJ" season. Varland might make it as a #5 starter but certainly isn't going to be starting in the playoffs. It's nice to have the option to slide him to the pen.

So yeah, they need to add one starter who you could trust in the playoffs. Doesn't need to be an ace, Lopez can handle that.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Ryan's homerun rate is still closer to league average. Gray's homerun rate in 2023 is unsustainable/lucky ongoing, or at least that's what I'd argue

Ryan gave up the seventh most home runs of any pitcher in MLB in 2023. I understand starting pitchers will dominate that stat, but I highly doubt he was close to league average.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I mean he was league average through June. He was pretty awful July on. 

[DocBauer]

I've been a ML baseball for 50 years and a devout fan for 45. And I say again, there is NO WAY to predict the proverbial ACE in MLB with FEW exceptions.  Clemmons was one of those. Strasburg was one before his arm fell off. Randy Johnson was NOT one until later in his career. And I've seen so many Stiebs and Coles and Santanas over my time that it's almost impossible to predict who will become an ACE, or even a #1 starter.

I do think Lopez is on the right treak. 

I'm optimistic that Ryan and Ober are on that treat to be good to very good. Ryan's first 3 months were All Star caliber before his groin injury. Can he, fully healthy, replicate his 2023 1st half? I'm hopeful he can. I mean, forget ACE status, he looked really good. Ober was just as good. And he has been deliberately brought along slowly. And even when he was sent down late in 2023, it was just to help rest his arm. So he blew his debut in the playoffs. That doesn't dismiss his stuff or his career projection. 

No question Paddack is a question mark. And despite his aggressive approach to the end of last year, what we're looking for is to retain the some of the velocity shown, PLUS the changes in his breaking ball he showed in 2022 and late this past year. 

I trust in Lopez. And I have a good feeling about the 2024 rotation, even knowing there is going to be an X factor not know yet. There is a point in a pitchers career where stuff and experience comes together, late 20's, or early 30's, where it all comes together. Lopez is at that point. 

I am not going to anoint Ryan or Ober with that "I got it" a this point. But I've seen enough to believe both might have the potential to reach that point. Or at least a #2 status in time, though I expect both to be a good #3 right now.

But the FO is either going to grab a solid #3 type in FA...which I doubt. I think they are going to grab SP X via trade. 

ABSOLUTELY. TODAY, RIGHT NOW, Lopez is the ONLY SP I want to begin a playoff series.  But we're also talking about today vs late September next year. It's not hard to see a healthy and stretched out Ryan and Ober ready to take another step. Not hard to see a healthy Paddack regulated the same way Ober was in 2021...4-5 IP at a time. [Just being conservative]. And there is always Varland and pitcher X.

Not sure I trust ANYONE right NOW to start a playoff game other than Lopez. But it's also December. I like the odds of our  rotation,  right now, adding pitcher X, and our pen, hopfully adding one good arm, and a lineup, to MAYBE win 90 plus wins. 

But 9 months from now can change a whole of things. And I'm not worried about a game 2 starter right now...even Gray fell apart...I'm just worried about the best staff and lineup the FO can put together. 

Today's #2-3 starter might be an All Star come July.

[Doctor Wu]

20 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Gm #4 Lugo if needed with short rest days, doubtful

Lugo would have been a good back-end rotation piece, but Kansas City just signed him. As so many others are saying, if we want to compete at a higher level we need to add another arm in the range of Lopez or Gray, or something even better (dare I hope!). 

[JD-TWINS]

16 hours ago, arby58 said:

Through the end of June, Ryan had a 3.44 ERA. while Gray's was 2.67. Ryan's was better than Lopez' 4.24, but not really in Gray's stratosphere. The real problem, which I alluded to, was keeping the ball in the ballpark. Through the end of June, he'd given up 13 HRs. Gray 3.

HR’s are a problem with Ryan - no question. He just seems to get loose with his command within the zone.

The ERA separation between Gray & Ryan at the end of June - maybe 70 innings for each - could be 5 runs or so, not a different stratosphere.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Lugo would have been a good back-end rotation piece, but Kansas City just signed him. As so many others are saying, if we want to compete at a higher level we need to add another arm in the range of Lopez or Gray, or something even better (dare I hope!). 

Bummer - They’ll all be gone (FA arms) by the time we sort out what to do - just going to have to cross fingers & hope! ….This drives Wacha up to $18M for 3 years, more than likely.

[Doctor Wu]

20 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Bummer - They’ll all be gone (FA arms) by the time we sort out what to do - just going to have to cross fingers & hope! ….This drives Wacha up to $18M for 3 years, more than likely.

Yes, this yearly wait for the front office to decide on signings and/or trades drives me nuts!

[wabene]

On 12/14/2023 at 4:44 AM, Doctor Wu said:

Yes, this yearly wait for the front office to decide on signings and/or trades drives me nuts!

The only deciding by this front office seems to have been done years ago. They decided their strategy will always be to wait out the market when the prices comes down.