Who’s Heading Out In Free Agency for Twins, and Who May be Back?

[Ted Schwerzler]

With free agency now officially open for business, the Minnesota Twins will work towards putting their offseason plans into motion. Derek Falvey leads the front office, and Thad Levine remains with the organization. What players are on their way out, and who may be retained?

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Each year, there is a significant amount of roster turnover at the major league level. Thankfully the Twins saw an significant influx of youth on the 2023 team, and that should be reflected in continuity. Carlos Correa has been signed long-term, and if he can remain on the field, then Byron Buxton’s veteran presence will also be felt.

The Twins finished the season with eight unrestricted free agents heading out, and those players represent varying degrees of probability of return. Sonny Gray is really the only monumental name among the group, but more than a few of these players generated key contributions for Minnesota this last season.

In no particular order, here’s who is hitting the market for Minnesota and the likelihood that they return for 2024.

1B/OF Joey Gallo - 0%
Coming to Minnesota after unsuccessful stints in Los Angeles and New York, there was some hope that a smaller market may benefit the veteran slugger. He played a solid first base when Alex Kirilloff couldn’t go, and he factored in at multiple outfield positions for the Twins. At $11 million in 2023, he never came close to providing that value. He was hot out of the gate, then never found the same production level.

Minnesota does need a big bat and help at first base in 2024, but these two parties are best to distance from one another. Gallo did finish with a 101 OPS+, so it wasn’t as though his year was catastrophic, but he shouldn’t land a deal for much more than half of that next season.

SP Sonny Gray - 10%
It’s not as though the Twins don’t need a starter of Gray’s caliber, and they two sides have familiarity. He has said the right things about liking Minnesota and being open to returning, but money talks. Gray will be 34 years old, and this is probably the last opportunity for him to land a multi-year deal.

Minnesota will give Gray a qualifying offer, and they’d love to pay him $20.5 million for the 2024 season. They may even be open to paying that same amount for the 2025 season. Where it seems the Twins would draw the line is in spending a substantial amount on a 36-year-old in 2026, and one that has thrown more than 180 innings just once since 2015. Gray’s time with the Twins afforded him the opportunity for another big payday, and he should go and look for it.

SP Tyler Mahle - 30%
After acquiring Mahle from the Cincinnati Reds at the trade deadline in 2022, the Twins got minimal run from him before his elbow blew out in 2023. For pitchers in similar positions, like Michael Pineda and Chris Paddack, Minnesota has made deals that essentially pay for the rehab, in exchange for a chance to see the results. Something like that could work for Mahle, but neither side has indicated it being likely.

The Twins may want to wash their hands from the move that sent Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand to the Reds. Also, Mahle isn’t going to factor into the Twins' plans for 2024, so bringing him back would be about how the 2025 rotation is viewed. There’s a possibility that Falvey sees this as an opportunity to get more while paying less, but there is plenty of uncertainty here.

OF Michael A. Taylor - 60%
It’s a given that Minnesota needs not only a backup plan for Buxton but, more logically, a starting option. Taylor filled that role for Baldelli wonderfully this year, but can you count on him to hit enough? His 94 OPS+ was the second-highest mark of his career, and although he posted a 90 OPS+ in 2022, it’s been considerably below that for years.

Taylor will be 33 years old in 2024, and he will command more than the $4.5 million he made this season. There aren’t many great outfield options for Minnesota, and it seems unlikely they’ll spring for someone at the level of Cody Bellinger to replace him. Taylor is maybe the most likely free agent for the Twins to retain, but expecting a repeat of 2023 seems lofty at best.

RP Emilio Pagán - 20%
After drawing the ire of Minnesota’s fanbase during a poor 2022, Pagán showed the front office was right to believe in his peripherals with a strong 2023. He changed his pitch mix a bit and worked his way back to a high-leverage role. The Twins bullpen has some open spots for the year ahead, but they could look in a different direction.

Pagán will find suitors this offseason, especially after his solid rebound. He has talked about the comfort here and the belief from the front office could lend him towards finding common ground in a deal. Relievers tend to swap teams often, though, and Pagán looking to pitch in a setup or closer role for another organization would be a logical step in 2024.

UTIL Donovan Solano - 10%
Signed as an afterthought right before the year started, Solano played an integral role for the Twins. At times, he was the only first base option, and he filled in all over the place. Despite being 35 years old, Solano rebounded from 2022 and posted a solid 110 OPS+. It wasn’t the inflated 127 OPS+ he had during 2020, but Solano has been a solid offensive contributor since 2019.

Replacing Solano isn’t a straightforward task for the Twins, but bringing him back isn’t a safe fix either. He plays similar positions to some Twins prospects who will be close to a return, and players like Brooks Lee or Jose Miranda could replicate his production. Ultimately, the Twins need to find someone for Solano's role, but it doesn’t seem like they would just run it back.

SP Kenta Maeda - 25%
Maeda gets lost in the shuffle with Gray highlighting the departing class. He could be the most cost-effective to bring back, though, and he had a successful overall season. Although injury took away from his availability, Maeda posted a 3.36 ERA in his final 88 1/3 innings, which spanned 17 games. There was the blowup game against the New York Yankees in April, but almost every other outing was relatively successful.

Maeda will be 36 years old next season, which means he could potentially be had on a one-year deal. The Twins have leaned more towards short-term deals with pitching free agents, and one like Maeda brings familiarity with what to expect. The durability concerns are real, but this is a much higher water mark that Minnesota has gravitated toward compared to previous free-agent arms.

SP Dallas Keuchel - 0%
Brought in to eat innings down the stretch, Keuchel did everything that was expected of him. The Twins didn’t think they were getting the Cy Young version, but they hoped to avoid the 2022 version as well. Keuchel proved he had something left in the tank by throwing some solid innings in St. Paul, and though plenty of the results were ERA-related, he worked his way back to the big leagues.

Minnesota saw Keuchel strike out very few batters, and his 5.97 ERA didn’t lean at all toward the 4.56 FIP that was behind it. He did contribute 37 2/3 innings after August, though, and that kept the rest of the staff fresh for what was envisioned as a deeper postseason run. There won’t be a need for a veteran spot starter to open the season, but Keuchel should undoubtedly get a look from some team if he wants it in 2024, and more offseason work could push the effectiveness up a bit further as well.

What free agents for Minnesota are you hoping to return? Is there someone you certainly don’t want to see back? Share your thoughts in the comments.

View full article

[roger]

I see the probability of bringing Pagan back as higher than 20%.  Whereas the fanbase did not treat him kindly, the Twins FO and coaching staff seemed to have faith in him.  Considering he has stated he liked Minny, I think his return may be closer to 50/50.  And should he return, the bullpen is likely full.

Also expect that the likelihood of Maeda returning is higher than you indicated.  Although Gray may be their #1 choice, they may turn to Maeda once Sonny declines the QO.  He doesn't need to fill the open #2 slot as I believe Paddack will take that in spring training.  The Twins and Maeda seemed to be on good terms as he worked thru his recovery and he may just look favorably upon a return.

[LewFordLives]

Well written. No major disagreements, although I would put Solano a little higher....maybe 25%.  He still checks a lot of boxes for the Twins. Miranda or Lee could certainly fill that roll, but they (along with Kirilloff) are still question marks. The nice thing about Solano is that he can probably be signed for cheap, and if someone like Miranda steps up, they can release him or trade him without eating much money.

[EGFTShaw]

I'd put Gray at 30-35% chance of coming back.  10% is way too low.

I think Maeda is about right. I'd like to see him back on a 1-2 year contract.

Donnie Barrels: I am going lower.  Not because I don't think he is worth it, just that if the keep Farmer, (for trading possibilities) there is also Polanco who could fill that SUtil role.  This assumes that JP isn't traded.

If you keep Polanco, excellent value, he can play 2nd, SS and 3rd.  That means you don't have to worry about Donnie Barrels or KFarmer. 

It will be a very interesting, and in a positive way for once, this off season for the Twins.

Good foundation, some key moving parts, luxury of having assets to trade from experienced to prospects to fill the needs.

[jmlease1]

14 minutes ago, EGFTShaw said:

Donnie Barrels: I am going lower.  Not because I don't think he is worth it, just that if the keep Farmer, (for trading possibilities) there is also Polanco who could fill that SUtil role.  This assumes that JP isn't traded.

If you keep Polanco, excellent value, he can play 2nd, SS and 3rd.  That means you don't have to worry about Donnie Barrels or KFarmer. 
 

I think this is the biggest barrier to Solano coming back: there just isn't a roster spot for him if you keep Farmer and/or Polanco (unless you expect Farmer & Castro to be the 4th and 5th OF, which seems unlikely from the Twins). He was solid and did what was asked of him, but a healthy Miranda seems like as good a fit to fill that role and could still be stashed in AAA until needed.

It's nice to have the Twins needing to move players with talent and value in order to find a roster spot for a FA signing. That's the problem I want to have...

[Blyleven2011]

2023 was a year of depth so the front office will certainly try to duplicate that again for 2024 ...

Bringing back a centerfielder or a first basemen  is probably the highest priority for depth   ...

Taylor back ...

Gallo gone gone gone ...

Pagan ,  I just don't know what to expect from him , has he really turned into a trusting arm for the bullpen  after 4 years of why is this person a MLB player  ...

[LewFordLives]

29 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I think this is the biggest barrier to Solano coming back: there just isn't a roster spot for him if you keep Farmer and/or Polanco (unless you expect Farmer & Castro to be the 4th and 5th OF, which seems unlikely from the Twins). He was solid and did what was asked of him, but a healthy Miranda seems like as good a fit to fill that role and could still be stashed in AAA until needed.

 

That's fair, but I don't see them bringing back Farmer. He's in line to get $6+ million in arbitration. 

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, LewFordLives said:

That's fair, but I don't see them bringing back Farmer. He's in line to get $6+ million in arbitration. 

But he's worth it.  He's my top target to retain of the questionable guys.

His fit for the roster is as good as it gets, probably better than any player they could bring in.  Good at 4 infield spots, functional in the corner outfield, emergency catcher, RH, can be used as both a pinch hit and defensive sub, great leader, tough as hell he will play in 130 games even with everyone healthy.  He will be worth 6m easily.  I would expect that he works some in the outfield next spring. 

Unfortunately for Solano, it squeezes him out as Miranda will get a crack at that spot.  If I'm Rocco I'm salivating with Farmer and Castro as two bench options.  The permutations are endless.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I think Farmer comes back unless the FO and manager believe that they have a good replacement at SS for the 20-40 games Correa either rests or is unavailable AND we can get a good return in a trade. Having a competent fielding SS is pretty close to an absolute requirement on a MLB team. The backup SS doesn't have to hit but he absolutely has to have a plus glove. Can Lewis hold down SS? I don't think either Polanco or Castro can field the position at a good enough level to be the backup. There doesn't seem to be anyone at the AAA level either so having a decent glove to back up Correa is a necessity. 

I think the Twins trade Farmer if they think the have that backup SS, who I think has to be Lewis. I think Lewis can do the job so I would explore the trade market for Farmer. Famer is better than the best available SS out there. I expect the Twins to trade Farmer if they can get a good return like an established quality LH reliver with more than 1 year of control.  If so, Farmer goes and either Gordon makes the team or Solano stays. If not, there is no room at the Inn for either of them. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Not sure why everyone is generally down on Maeda coming back.  Relatively cheap, known product, successful in MN, does what is needed.  IMO he is pitching priority #2 behind Gray.

Pagan will be offered a reasonable contract, but may find more money elsewhere.

Taylor makes the most sense to come back, but the Twins may look elsewhere if they think they can upgrade (Kevin Kiermaier...). 

 

[PatPfund]

I agree pretty much with the percentages. Maeda and MAT would be great to have back. I can't really see Solano back until very late (if it turns out a key IF is still hobbled by injury); there are too many replacements (even if Farmer is gone) with Miranda, Kirilloff, Castro, maybe Gordon, and possibly Severino (dude co-led the minors in HR, plays Solano's positions, and will have to be added to the 40-man). Guessing they trade for a pitcher, though, which may shift needs depending on who goes.

[tony&rodney]

47 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I think Lewis can do the job

There is plenty of discussion about this issue. Every decent team needs a player who can play backup at shortstop. 

Lewis did not fare well in the minor leagues as a shortstop. In fact he was moved off of shortstop in high school because third base was a better fit for him. Royce is more of a reaction type fielder than  an anticipatory, quick, soft hands, etc. guy, which is needed to play in the middle of the field. While I have not been overly impressed by Farmer, I must admit that his versatility and competence are exactly what is needed in a utility player. Farmer's return from a broken face last year was a true sign of his toughness. A bonus is that it appears he is also a fine teammate. I'm keeping Farmer for $7 million if needed.

[JD-TWINS]

I would think that if they were going to spend any $$ on FA pitching (outside a BIG move) that Maeda would be first choice. Both sides are comfortable with each other - his elbow is basically brand new - 2 years with 2nd being his option at $12M/year. Gives him security, and unless he collapses, it gives us reasonable depth for 2 years.

[JD-TWINS]

IMO they keep Farmer for defensive flexibility at a certain competence level, along with durability. He plays 2B v. every LH pitcher we face and he rests CC 25 games and Lewis 30 games. that’s 90 starts or so……….pinch hitter or late defensive replacement another 30 games.

They trade Polanco and Julien starts all games at 2B v. RH pitching.

 

[DocBauer]

I'd be fine with Maeda back on a solid 1yr deal, say $12-14M. His arm showed real life left in it. But he's not a top priority. He's the floor we need to add. I do believe the Twins will consider FA, which includes Gray, and they have offered long term, high dollar deals in the past, just never quite as long or as high as someone else. (Darvish and Wheeler as examples). And I'm not going to debate the merits of those attempts, just that they have, believe they will look again, it just has to make sense to them. I think a trade still makes the most sense, but Maeda is still a solid arm.

Said before and say again now, I just don't think the payroll will allow them to keep both Farmer AND Polanco, though I'd like to see both. Over $6M on a 1yr for Farmer doesn't cripple the team. It's just an awful lot to spend on that roster spot/role. But if Polanco does get moved in part of a pitcher deal, Farmer definitely sticks as a back up at 3B/SS, and quasi platoon partner at 2B with Julien.

And I've watched enough of Castro across the INF to have ZERO issues with him filling in there as well. 

 

[CRF]

Please, please, PLEASE...don't bring Gallo back!

[Fatbat]

I can see Farmer coming back and signing Mahle to a rehab deal. The rest are going to down the road. The point of free agency is to find something better for the organization and as players. It’s possible that we roll with Lee at 2nd to save payroll and get an extra draft pick. Polo would be the 5th infielder and Farmer gone.  I would put the chance of Gray or Maeda coming back at 1%.  Its just not gonna happen.  We have pitching needs so it will be fun watching it play out to see who signs or gets acquired by trade. 

[mikelink45]

Interesting speculation - the beginning of the Hot Stove discussions.  Of course I have no idea (other than getting rid of Gallo).  So much depends on reading the minds of Falvey and Levine and I am not ready for that challenge. 

FA, resignings, and trades are all part of a mix that is too convoluted to figure out.  

It is also the mystery of injury recovery, staying healthy, youth versus veteran and finally the budget.

I will stay tuned and enjoy the speculation.

[Jeff K]

On 11/6/2023 at 5:36 PM, DocBauer said:

I'd be fine with Maeda back on a solid 1yr deal, say $12-14M. His arm showed real life left in it. But he's not a top priority. He's the floor we need to add. I do believe the Twins will consider FA, which includes Gray, and they have offered long term, high dollar deals in the past, just never quite as long or as high as someone else. (Darvish and Wheeler as examples). And I'm not going to debate the merits of those attempts, just that they have, believe they will look again, it just has to make sense to them. I think a trade still makes the most sense, but Maeda is still a solid arm.

Said before and say again now, I just don't think the payroll will allow them to keep both Farmer AND Polanco, though I'd like to see both. Over $6M on a 1yr for Farmer doesn't cripple the team. It's just an awful lot to spend on that roster spot/role. But if Polanco does get moved in part of a pitcher deal, Farmer definitely sticks as a back up at 3B/SS, and quasi platoon partner at 2B with Julien.

And I've watched enough of Castro across the INF to have ZERO issues with him filling in there as well. 

 

Castro had a tremendous season.  I thought he played a solid centerfield too.  Keep him!

 

[tony&rodney]

Mahle? He had surgery for his elbow, which was the blow that ended his season. Yet you should recall that he has had a bum shoulder off and on for several years. The elbow happened sort of suddenly but I'm wondering if he is done due to a bum shoulder ... like me.