Carlos Correa's Record-Breaking Season Leads Twins' Worst Base Runners

[Cody Christie]

There have been some baserunning blunders for the Twins in recent weeks. So, who are the team's worst base runners so far in 2023?

Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Like many teams, the Twins focused on improving base running this spring, including bringing in former manager Paul Molitor to provide instruction. It would be great if coaching and strategy could help a team improve on the base paths, but a team can't make giant strides without the appropriate personnel. Slow baserunners will continue to be slow baserunners, which has held true for Minnesota this season. 

Last week, FanGraphs ran through the players who get the least from their base running, and the Twins were featured prominently in the piece. The site uses a metric called Base Running (BsR) that includes stolen bases, caught stealing, and other base running plays (taking extra bases, being thrown out on the bases, etc.) into runs above and below average. The Twins have multiple players who rank poorly on the base paths, including some that may be surprising. Here are the team's five worst base runners.

5. Jose Miranda, 3B
Base Running: -1.5
The Twins expected Miranda to play a pivotal role during the 2023 campaign, but a shoulder injury limited him to 40 games. Even in limited action, Miranda's poor base running was in full effect. Last season, he finished with a -4.5 BsR, ranking fourth worst on the Twins. He would rank significantly higher on this list if he played more games this season. Minnesota moved Miranda to the 60-day IL over the last week, so he won't get to improve his baserunning until the 2024 campaign. 

4. Donovan Solano, UTL
Base Running: -2.4
Solano has been integral to the Twins' line-up this season, hitting .294/.379/.411 (.790) with 24 doubles and five home runs. His 117 OPS+ is the second-highest total of his career. Despite a solid offensive season, Solano is among the team's worst base runners. Last season, he posted a -2.0 BsR in 80 games for the Reds, and his 2023 BsR total is the second lowest of his career. 

3. Max Kepler, OF
Base Running: -4.4
Kepler looks the part of a player who would be a strong base runner, including having a sprint speed in the 54th percentile. However, Baseball Savant ranks him in the 10th percentile for baserunning value, which is worth -2 runs. Kepler has yet to steal a base this season, and he's had limited opportunities to take an extra base. In previous seasons, Kepler has been an above-average runner, so his early season leg injuries might have hampered his overall numbers. 

2. Christian Vazquez, C
Base Running: -4.1
Catchers typically fill up the rankings of baseball's worst base runners, and Vazquez is no exception. Over the last two seasons, Vazquez has been baseball's least valuable baserunner by accumulating -14.0 BsR. According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the second percentile for baserunning value and in the fifth percentile, which has cost the Twins three runs this season. His sprint speed is in the ninth percentile, so few runners are slower than Vazquez on the base paths. 

1. Carlos Correa, SS
Base Running: -7.7
Over the weekend, Carlos Correa set the team record by hitting into the most double plays in one season. He's been the team's worst base runner during the 2023 season, and only Vazquez has ranked worse than Correa over the last two seasons. Correa has dealt with plantar fasciitis throughout the season, which might have added to his poor baserunning. He has also been very aware of how slow he has been this season when talking to reporters. Correa has been undeniably slow, impacting the team throughout the season.   

How would you rank the Twins' worst baserunners? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Karbo]

I think his speed and base running has been effected by his planter injury. He isn't fast, even when healthy. But he sure can play defense, which IMO makes up and more for his base running.

[IndianaTwin]

The top (bottom) three guys are two players who've been hurt all season and a catcher, followed by two guys who aren't expected to help the team in this category. What a surprise.

Much more interesting to me would to be hear who has helped the team with their baserunning. 

 

[Jocko87]

Reading through the methodology of this stat it's a little bit of a misnomer to call it a baserunning stat. It very heavily weighs stolen bases and GIDP, both areas Correa is going to be poor in on a good year. It's a bit of a reach to call GIDP a base running stat vs a hitting stat.

I don't see Correa or Solano make the mistakes a Lewis does for example but this stat seems to factor speed over everything.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

In his current state it's not a surprise that Correa isn't contributing more on the bases.  Plantar Fasciitis is not fun.  What amazes me more is how effective he has remained on defense.  It obviously speaks to his tremendous defensive game smarts and some pretty good reaction times. 

[Blyleven2011]

18 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Reading through the methodology of this stat it's a little bit of a misnomer to call it a baserunning stat. It very heavily weighs stolen bases and GIDP, both areas Correa is going to be poor in on a good year. It's a bit of a reach to call GIDP a base running stat vs a hitting stat.

I don't see Correa or Solano make the mistakes a Lewis does for example but this stat seems to factor speed over everything.

I would concur with this analysis  ...

[tony&rodney]

Not much to glean from this Fangraphs work. We pretty much know how slow Vazquez, Solano, and Miranda are and Correa has played through injury all year. Kepler is a good base runner though and despite a few mistakes this year I would take him on the bases versus many rated much higher.

[laloesch]

plantar fasciitis sucks.  I suffered from it for almost 2 years straight.  It can linger a long time before healing and the older you are the harder it is to deal with.  Running on pavements or very hard surfaces can aggravate it.  There are certain exercises and roll devices that you can use to help stretch out the tendons, but it still needs time to heal, honestly downtime.

[MMMordabito]

More filler garb

[John Clinger]

Joey Gallo has some memorable base-running gaffes.

[jorgenswest]

3 hours ago, Cody Christie said:

There have been some baserunning blunders for the Twins in recent weeks. So, who are the team's worst base runners so far in 2023?

What does this number have to do with base running blunders?

Correa is right handed, hits the ball ball harder than most, hits ground ball more than average and is slower than average. Aren’t those the factors leading to his number? How much an impact are his blunders? 

[Cody Christie]

4 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

What does this number have to do with base running blunders?

Correa is right handed, hits the ball ball harder than most, hits ground ball more than average and is slower than average. Aren’t those the factors leading to his number? How much an impact are his blunders? 

I wasn't really connecting the recent base running blunders to Correa. It was more of an intro to get people thinking about some of the players that might be considered poor base runners. 

[Linus]

8 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I would concur with this analysis  ...

Me too. 

[stringer bell]

Base running blunders cost runs, but so does not taking extra bases. Not going first to third on a single or scoring from first on a double subtract from runs scored. Kepler, Solano, Miranda, Vázquez and Correa are all extremely conservative on the base paths.  

[joefish]

Hmm. More numbers I don't need. More negative focus.  We are in 1st place

 Let's enjoy that and look forward positively.

[Doctor Wu]

8 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Base running blunders cost runs, but so does not taking extra bases. Not going first to third on a single or scoring from first on a double subtract from runs scored. Kepler, Solano, Miranda, Vázquez and Correa are all extremely conservative on the base paths.  

Good point on taking the extra bases or not. That can be huge. I knew that Correa was being more conservative on the base paths this year, but I'm really surprised at how poor Kepler has been. I don't think he can plead the same injury issues, so what's his handicap?

[Linus]

I think they have made far fewer baserunning blunders this year compared to last year when they were terrible. That said they are not a particularly good baserunning team but that has mostly to do with lineup construction. 

[TopGunn#22]

Speed is what base running is all about.  Speed gives a player the "opportunity" to take the extra base when possible.  So of course SPEED is paramount to determining base running ability.  You can have a slower base runner who still makes good baserunning decisions.  Bill Buckner came up in the Dodgers system and had above average speed but good baserunning instincts.  Too many ankle injuries/surgeries destroyed his speed, but he was still able to take an extra base when he sensed the opportunity long after his speed deserted him. 

The biggest surprise to me is Kepler.  He should have at least 5 steals at this point of the season, early season leg injury or not.  Correa is SLOW, I'll grant that, and he hits the ball HARD.  So DP's grounded into are to be expected.  Tony-O had that problem later in his career as a DH.  But Correa's continued health issues does make one worry about how long he'll stay at SS.  I would bet he's got at least 3 more solid years, but 3B is in his future.  Would the Twins just switch Brooks Lee and Correa in 2027 or 2028?  I could see Lee getting games at SS on days Correa has off and/or DH's.  

But team SPEED is certainly an area the Twins need to improve upon for future rosters.  The element of speed is primarily why Castro has made Nick Gordon expendable for future Twins rosters.  The new rules have brought speed and the stolen base back into baseball and I for one am very happy with the results so far.  

[Minny505]

On 9/6/2023 at 9:38 AM, Jocko87 said:

Reading through the methodology of this stat it's a little bit of a misnomer to call it a baserunning stat. It very heavily weighs stolen bases and GIDP, both areas Correa is going to be poor in on a good year. It's a bit of a reach to call GIDP a base running stat vs a hitting stat.

I don't see Correa or Solano make the mistakes a Lewis does for example but this stat seems to factor speed over everything.

Are you referencing Fangraphs methodology or Baseball Savant?

[jkcarew]

Sorry…I can’t get past the fact that GiDP has nothing to do with base running. If you play a lot, in the front half of the order, don’t strike out much, tend to hit the ball hard, and hit right-handed…you’re going to have many GiDP. If you check all those boxes, as Correa does, you don’t even have to be particularly ‘slow’.

Rice, Ripken, Winfield, Miguel Tejada…these were not guys that ‘couldn’t run’…not known as ‘bad’ base runners. To be sure, the seasonal leaderboards through the years include some extremely slow runners…but there’s probably a stronger correlation to all-stars and even Hall-of-Famers.

 

[RpR]

23 hours ago, John Clinger said:

Joey Gallo has some memorable base-running gaffes.

So does Lewis.

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, Minny505 said:

Are you referencing Fangraphs methodology or Baseball Savant?

I clicked through to his link, it was fangraphs.