Carlos Correa's Record-Breaking Season Leads Twins' Worst Base Runners

18 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Reading through the methodology of this stat it's a little bit of a misnomer to call it a baserunning stat. It very heavily weighs stolen bases and GIDP, both areas Correa is going to be poor in on a good year. It's a bit of a reach to call GIDP a base running stat vs a hitting stat.

I don't see Correa or Solano make the mistakes a Lewis does for example but this stat seems to factor speed over everything.

I would concur with this analysis  ...

Not much to glean from this Fangraphs work. We pretty much know how slow Vazquez, Solano, and Miranda are and Correa has played through injury all year. Kepler is a good base runner though and despite a few mistakes this year I would take him on the bases versus many rated much higher.

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More filler garb

Joey Gallo has some memorable base-running gaffes.

3 hours ago, Cody Christie said:

There have been some baserunning blunders for the Twins in recent weeks. So, who are the team's worst base runners so far in 2023?

What does this number have to do with base running blunders?

Correa is right handed, hits the ball ball harder than most, hits ground ball more than average and is slower than average. Aren’t those the factors leading to his number? How much an impact are his blunders? 

8 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I would concur with this analysis  ...

Me too. 

Hmm. More numbers I don't need. More negative focus.  We are in 1st place

 Let's enjoy that and look forward positively.

8 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Base running blunders cost runs, but so does not taking extra bases. Not going first to third on a single or scoring from first on a double subtract from runs scored. Kepler, Solano, Miranda, Vázquez and Correa are all extremely conservative on the base paths.  

Good point on taking the extra bases or not. That can be huge. I knew that Correa was being more conservative on the base paths this year, but I'm really surprised at how poor Kepler has been. I don't think he can plead the same injury issues, so what's his handicap?

I think they have made far fewer baserunning blunders this year compared to last year when they were terrible. That said they are not a particularly good baserunning team but that has mostly to do with lineup construction. 

Speed is what base running is all about.  Speed gives a player the "opportunity" to take the extra base when possible.  So of course SPEED is paramount to determining base running ability.  You can have a slower base runner who still makes good baserunning decisions.  Bill Buckner came up in the Dodgers system and had above average speed but good baserunning instincts.  Too many ankle injuries/surgeries destroyed his speed, but he was still able to take an extra base when he sensed the opportunity long after his speed deserted him. 

The biggest surprise to me is Kepler.  He should have at least 5 steals at this point of the season, early season leg injury or not.  Correa is SLOW, I'll grant that, and he hits the ball HARD.  So DP's grounded into are to be expected.  Tony-O had that problem later in his career as a DH.  But Correa's continued health issues does make one worry about how long he'll stay at SS.  I would bet he's got at least 3 more solid years, but 3B is in his future.  Would the Twins just switch Brooks Lee and Correa in 2027 or 2028?  I could see Lee getting games at SS on days Correa has off and/or DH's.  

But team SPEED is certainly an area the Twins need to improve upon for future rosters.  The element of speed is primarily why Castro has made Nick Gordon expendable for future Twins rosters.  The new rules have brought speed and the stolen base back into baseball and I for one am very happy with the results so far.  

On 9/6/2023 at 9:38 AM, Jocko87 said:

Reading through the methodology of this stat it's a little bit of a misnomer to call it a baserunning stat. It very heavily weighs stolen bases and GIDP, both areas Correa is going to be poor in on a good year. It's a bit of a reach to call GIDP a base running stat vs a hitting stat.

I don't see Correa or Solano make the mistakes a Lewis does for example but this stat seems to factor speed over everything.

Are you referencing Fangraphs methodology or Baseball Savant?

Sorry…I can’t get past the fact that GiDP has nothing to do with base running. If you play a lot, in the front half of the order, don’t strike out much, tend to hit the ball hard, and hit right-handed…you’re going to have many GiDP. If you check all those boxes, as Correa does, you don’t even have to be particularly ‘slow’.

Rice, Ripken, Winfield, Miguel Tejada…these were not guys that ‘couldn’t run’…not known as ‘bad’ base runners. To be sure, the seasonal leaderboards through the years include some extremely slow runners…but there’s probably a stronger correlation to all-stars and even Hall-of-Famers.

23 hours ago, John Clinger said:

Joey Gallo has some memorable base-running gaffes.

So does Lewis.