Waiver Mania: Minnesota Twins Come Up Empty, Again

[Aggies7]

5 games out with 28 to play and 3 of those against the twins, is not a “small chance” at winning the division

[SwainZag]

Much ado about nothing.  Twins could do no more than put in claims.  Saying they struck out is a bit clickbaity when they never had a chance.  Here's hoping that Cleveland just threw a couple million away.

[DJL44]

16 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

They are 5 games out with 48 games to go.

28 games to go. Still, the same point stands.

[tony&rodney]

8 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

They are 5 games out with 48 games to go. If the Twins go 19 and 29 the rest of the way. They just need to go 24 and 24 to force a playoff game with Moore and Lopez added to a pretty good pen. If they go 29 and 19... the Twins will need to play .500 ball to force a playoff game with Moore and Lopez added to a pretty good pen. If Cleveland sweeps us in Cleveland next week. That 5 becomes a 2. Or that 4 becomes a 1.   

The Twins need to play good baseball in September. Despite all ridicule of the AL Central, the baseball season is long and any team on top of the standings in their division at the end of the regular season should revel in the accomplishment.

There are 28 games remaining and Cleveland will have the edge on a tie in the standings unless the Twins sweep in Cleveland. There are no playoff games to break a divisional or wild card tie. Head to head is first determination. 

Cleveland will need to go 19-9 to tie if the Twins go 14-14. The Twins have a more favorable schedule. Whomever wins the AL Central deserves it. Anything can happen, but it would be cause for a drastic change in management if this rendition of the Twins implodes and does not win the AL Central title outright.

[Riverbrian]

3 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins need to play good baseball in September. Despite all ridicule of the AL Central, the baseball season is long and any team on top of the standings in their division at the end of the regular season should revel in the accomplishment.

There are 28 games remaining and Cleveland will have the edge on a tie in the standings unless the Twins sweep in Cleveland. There are no playoff games to break a divisional or wild card tie. Head to head is first determination. 

Cleveland will need to go 19-9 to tie if the Twins go 14-14. The Twins have a more favorable schedule. Whomever wins the AL Central deserves it. Anything can happen, but it would be cause for a drastic change in management if this rendition of the Twins implodes and does not win the AL Central title outright.

LOL 

OK... I'm going to edit my post again. 

And I'm going to remove my A game comment because I clearly didn't bring mine. 

[Mike Sixel]

39 minutes ago, Alex Wilde said:

5% chance...I thought Cleveland was a smart organization? I guess the trade deadline was a fluke too.

so you are arguing they are smart, and petty children?

[Alex Wilde]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

so you are arguing they are smart, and petty children?

They very well could be lol. Mike, I understand your position and opinions, and I appreciate your responses!

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Alex Wilde said:

They very well could be lol. Mike, I understand your position and opinions, and I appreciate your responses!

fair! Have a great day.

[Alex Wilde]

31 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

You say a 5% chance or some oddsmaker is saying 5% chance and you are repeating it like it's gospel.

So... that's what it is then? 5% chance? 

5% of what. 1 out of 20 bingo balls. 1 out of 20 Red Blankets? Did these moves make it 6%?    

They are 5 games out with 28 games to go. If the Twins go 9 and 19 the rest of the way. They just need to go 14 and 14 to force a tiebreker that Cleveland will win. If they go 19 and 9... the Twins will need to play .500 ball to force a tiebreaker that Cleveland will win. 

If Cleveland sweeps us in Cleveland next week. That 5 becomes a 2. Or that 4 becomes a 1 or that 6 becomes a 3.    

Please don't throw 5% chance at me like it means something. 

I mean 5% is 5%. The series next week pretty much decides that for the division, however, that doesn't change the overall numbers or the chances of the Guardians making the playoffs. These moves might swing their chances by a percent or two, but it doesn't change the Guardians' opponents for the rest of the season or the Twins' opponents for the rest of the season.

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, Alex Wilde said:

I mean 5% is 5%. The series next week pretty much decides that for the division, however, that doesn't change the overall numbers or the chances of the Guardians making the playoffs. These moves might swing their chances by a percent or two, but it doesn't change the Guardians' opponents for the rest of the season or the Twins' opponents for the rest of the season.

OK... 5% is 5%... I can't argue with that. 😉

What are the odds that the Twins would have gotten these three pitchers if Cleveland didn't hate us so much. 

[Alex Wilde]

Just now, Riverbrian said:

OK... 5% is 5%... I can't argue with that. 😉

What are the odds that the Twins would have gotten these three pitchers if Cleveland didn't hate us so much. 

They may have gotten Giolito if they even put a claim in for him and wanted him to pitch out of the bullpen or maybe take up a spot in the rotation while Maeda and DK piggyback. It isn't likely that the Twins would have got Lopez or Moore at all. It is obviously impossible though because Cleveland claimed them both first. I guess that is my point in its entirety.

[Riverbrian]

23 minutes ago, Alex Wilde said:

They may have gotten Giolito if they even put a claim in for him and wanted him to pitch out of the bullpen or maybe take up a spot in the rotation while Maeda and DK piggyback. It isn't likely that the Twins would have got Lopez or Moore at all. It is obviously impossible though because Cleveland claimed them both first. I guess that is my point in its entirety.

Allow me to make up a % chance that the Twins would have gotten any of these three players if Cleveland didn't claim them.

I'll say 1% chance and this is generous. 

Therefore my point in it's entirety: 

You are claiming that Cleveland spent 3 million dollars to spite the Twins with a 1% chance of getting any of these three players because the 5% chance of winning the AL Central is too high for them to seriously consider making the playoffs.  

Why didn't the Royals, Tigers and White Sox claim the players to spite Cleveland? It's only 3 million dollars. 😉 

  

 

 

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Alex Wilde said:

5% chance...I thought Cleveland was a smart organization? I guess the trade deadline was a fluke too.

You keep repeating this 5% chance mantra as if there is actually some factual basis for it. 

There isn't

 

[USAFChief]

And I believe MLB needs to reexamine the second half waiver process.

Dumping players into a pennant chase is bad for the sport, and the specific reason there are trade deadlines.

This entire situation can't become the norm.

[LastOnePicked]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

MO... While I point out the unfairness of what transpired today and I believe this is unprecedented unfairness with all of my heart. While I point out the bad luck that it has the potential to hurt us specifically.

You're right, I agree. It's mostly my trigger when I see the Twins and "luck" come up in posts. If the Twins played in any other division in baseball, they'd already be out of the playoff picture and probably have just half of their playoff banners flying over Target Field. The Twins certainly don't have a "luck" problem.

Yes, this year's odd waiver anomaly didn't bounce their way. But, stronger competition is a good thing, I think.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Let's dance with the ones who brought us here.

[nicksaviking]

35 minutes ago, Alex Wilde said:

I mean 5% is 5%. The series next week pretty much decides that for the division, however, that doesn't change the overall numbers or the chances of the Guardians making the playoffs. These moves might swing their chances by a percent or two, but it doesn't change the Guardians' opponents for the rest of the season or the Twins' opponents for the rest of the season.

Cleveland is 5 games back. New York is ten games back. If 5=10 in your book, there’s probably no point in furthering this discussion.

[RickOShea]

3 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

It is what it is.  We move on with what we have.  The FO will have to live with, and be judged by, the results at the end of the season.

The FO guys may be judged, but they aren't going anywhere.  I would not be surprised me to see the same batch of characters come the start of next season.

[KBJ1]

Waivers need to be reworked. No way o e team should be able to "claim" everyone. You get first pick, then go to the back of the line. This is BS.

Cleveland is going to win this division.

[Beast]

It is in their control.  They needed bullpen help.  They could’ve traded for Lopez.  They could’ve signed Matt Moore for relative peanuts.  Everything breaking wrong for this team (except injuries to an extent) isn’t an accident.  They put themselves in the position.
 

That said, dumb loophole that allows one team to load up like that.  It should go in some sort of order. Maybe based on priority assigned by the team to each player they submit a claim for.  Once you claim one player, you go to the back of the line on the next one. 

 

[thelanges5]

If we had scored more than 4 runs in the past 2 games we wouldn't even be having this debate.

[SwainZag]

24 minutes ago, KBJ1 said:

Waivers need to be reworked. No way o e team should be able to "claim" everyone. You get first pick, then go to the back of the line. This is BS.

Cleveland is going to win this division.

If Cleveland wins the division that means the Twins lost it, period.  Everyone is so worried about a team that is 6 games under .500 right now.  The Twins take care of business and Cleveland is an afterthought.  Adding 2 relievers and a struggling starter doesn't make them a super team.  If the Twins play better than .500 ball to finish the season they win the division by 5+ games.  Book it.

[Vanimal46]

7 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

If we had scored more than 4 runs in the past 2 games we wouldn't even be having this debate.

We could have scored 40 runs the past 2 games and I’d still be interested in 2 effective relievers available for pennies on the dollar. 

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

If Martin isn't up today, I can't see it happening. If he's not up today, he can't be on the playoff roster. He should have been up two weeks ago, but having Luplow on the team seems to be their preference.

Martin doesn't need to be up today, but I'd really like to see him added to the 40-man today. I'm fine waiting til tomorrow to add him to the 28-man, though. Very highly doubt that happens, though.

[Alex Wilde]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

You keep repeating this 5% chance mantra as if there is actually some factual basis for it. 

There isn't

 

Not everyone loves analytics, but these numbers aren’t pulled out of a hat “old timer”.
 

The Playoff Odds are based on our Depth Charts, which is a 50/50 Steamer and ZiPS blend scaled to individual playing time estimates programmed and updated by the FanGraphs staff.  We then simulate the season 10,000 times (using the actual remaining schedule) using a method adapted from the folks at CoolStandings.

If you don’t like our projections, you can also switch to “Season to Date” mode which runs the same simulations based on the current year statistics of the players in question rather than the projections. You can also view the results based on simulations which assume every game is a coin flip.

[Dave Borton]

4 hours ago, Azviking101 said:

...multiple twins daily writers said that Cleveland would never spend the money 

 Why do we cite our perception of other's being wrong? Present our case and leave it for others to decide. 

While I mean no disrespect to you, I have seen this occurring a bit too often recently. "The TD writers said..."

[Dave Borton]

4 hours ago, Azviking101 said:

... winning the series would give them the confidence to go out and claim everyone and look what happened. 

What surprises me is that they were sellers and now are buyers. I need to review their "sells" from Aug 1.

[RickOShea]

4 hours ago, CoastiePilot08 said:

#falvineout

Cleveland must be getting a good chuckle.  They taught Falvey everything he knows, but they didn't teach him everything, they know.  If they overcome Minn and win the Central, they will will really have schooled him.

[Nine of twelve]

I haven’t read the other comments and I probably won’t. I’ll just say it’s obvious to me that when our turn came around no available player was worth getting. So coming up empty is good. 

[Mike Sixel]

38 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Martin doesn't need to be up today, but I'd really like to see him added to the 40-man today. I'm fine waiting til tomorrow to add him to the 28-man, though. Very highly doubt that happens, though.

sure, that's all I meant......but I doubt they put him on the 40 w/o calling him up asap. Not that anyone needs replacing who is playing al lthe time.....