Week in Review: Sticking to the Script

[Nick Nelson]

In typical fashion, the Twins followed a faith-inspiring run of success with a confidence-crushing descent into miserable, punchless play against a beatable opponent. From five straight wins to four straight losses, just like that.

In typical fashion, they lost no ground in the AL Central despite this latest relapse.

Image courtesy of Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/7 through Sun, 8/13
***
Record Last Week: 3-4 (Overall: 62-58)
Run Differential Last Week: -8 (Overall: +39)
Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (4.5 GA)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 114 | MIN 9, DET 3: Bats Break Through Against Lefty Starter
Game 115 | DET 6, MIN 0: Dominant E-Rod Snaps Winning Streak
Game 116 | DET 9, MIN 5: Ober, Balazovic Bomb in Ugly Loss
Game 117 | DET 3, MIN 0: Offense No-shows Again Behind Solid Maeda
Game 118 | PHI 13, MIN 2: Phillies Obliterate Twins Pitching in Blowout
Game 119 | MIN 8, PHI 1: Lopez, Gallo Lead in Slump-Ending Victory
Game 120 | MIN 3, PHI 0: Gray Combines with Bullpen for Shutout

NEWS & NOTES

The Twins had some injury scares last week, with Donovan Solano tweaking his knee in Detroit and Max Kepler taking a(nother!) ball off his toe in Philly, but it appears both players avoided anything too serious. Solano was back in the starting lineup on Sunday at DH and Kepler entered later as a sub.

It was a fairly quiet week in terms of roster action, with Minnesota making only one move: swapping out Brent Headrick after he threw 67 pitches on Friday for a fresh arm in Cole Sands.

The impending return of Royce Lewis is the big roster storyline. We'll cover it in depth shortly.

HIGHLIGHTS

The Twins sandwiched a very ugly stretch of baseball between some fine efforts against the Tigers and Phillies, with a pair of blowout wins and a shutout bookending their brutal midweek four-game losing streak. 

Among the highlights from the past seven days: 

• Joey Gallo shaking out of his massive slump with a two-homer, 4-for-4 game on Saturday night.
• Pablo López firing six shutout innings against the Phillies in the same game, lowering his ERA to 3.66 on the season and improving to 3-0 with 0.47 ERA in three August starts. 
• Sonny Gray (6 IP, 0 ER) and Kenta Maeda (6 IP, 1 ER) adding their own brilliant efforts, and fortifying confidence in what is quickly taking shape as the likely Twins playoff rotation. Combined, that trio has a collective 3.05 ERA and 122-to-24 K/BB ratio in 18 starts since the All-Star break, including a 1.84 ERA and 49-to-2 K/BB ratio in August.
• Michael A. Taylor delivering a pair of web gems in the same inning on Friday night, albeit in a losing effort, and adding another diving catch in a much more meaningful spot on Saturday.

Perhaps most consequential of all: Carlos Correa shows real signs of coming on. He ran his hitting streak to eight games in a week where he was 8-for-19 with three homers, two doubles and six RBIs. Importantly: his plate approach was noticeably improved, resulting in a 3-to-4 K/BB ratio.

Will this be the breakthrough that sticks? I'm skeptical, but hopeful. It would be a massive development for the Twins and their postseason outlook.

LOWLIGHTS

The Twins offense can't shake free of its eternal pattern, with each short burst of life followed by an inevitable return to widespread mega-slumping. The lineup impressively scored nine runs in the series opener against Detroit, then got shut out twice in the next three games, and barely made a whimper in the opener against Philly. Sunday saw another unremarkable left-handed starter mow through the Twins lineup with ease.

Ranger Suarez was one of five lefties the Twins saw in seven games, which helped to minimize the impacts of Edouard Julien (1-for-16) and Matt Wallner (2-for-18). The prevalence of LH match-ups made it all the more frustrating that aside from Correa, Minnesota's right-handed bats continued to flounder. 

Kyle Farmer went 3-for-21 with one walk and zero extra-base hits. Christian Vázquez was 2-for-15. Taylor was 2-for-20, offsetting his defensive excellence. Willi Castro (stunningly the LEADOFF hitter in Friday night's blowout loss) was 2-for-19. 

It's understood these aren't great hitters overall, but their collective inability to produce at all in favorable spots is just killing the Twins offense. 

Meanwhile, the once-exemplary Minnesota pitching staff is experiencing a major midseason swoon. We can only hope it's temporary. As Aaron Gleeman tweeted, their 13-run shellacking by the Phillies on Friday night left them with the worst ERA and second-highest OPS allowed in the American League since the All-Star break, though they rebounded nicely the next two days.

The Dallas Keuchel experiment, as expected, quickly went off the rails, as Philadelphia hitters feasted on his soft arsenal for six runs on six hits and two walks in 1 ⅔ innings. In two starts with the Twins, Keuchel struck out zero of the 36 batters he faced, yielding a 9.45 ERA that's even worse than last year's mark (9.20). 

We've likely seen the end of Keuchel's ill-fated Twins tenure, with Louie Varland looking like a far superior option (3-0 with a 0.47 ERA in three August starts at Triple-A) and throwing a gem on the same night. It was a worth a shot.

The fifth rotation spot is not of terribly high concern in the grand scheme – you only need four starters at most for the playoffs – but Bailey Ober's struggles are more troubling, from both a micro and macro perspective. 

Just two starts after giving up a season-high 11 hits against the Royals, he matched that total against the Tigers on Wednesday, allowing five runs (four earned) in five innings. These two starts represented a stark departure from Ober's previous dependability, and they came against two of the league's worst offenses.

I don't necessarily want to overreact to an altogether short downturn for Ober, especially when his 7.71 ERA over the past three starts comes attached to a 17-to-1 K/BB ratio, and no detectable dip in velocity or control. But it's hard to ignore the fact that he's already well past his previous workload precedent as a pro. Rocco Baldelli and the Twins will need to be very cautious in how they proceed with this key fixture on their staff's present and future.

TRENDING STORYLINE

Lewis has convincingly looked ready in his rehab stint at St. Paul, going 5-for-12 with two homers in four games last week. He will likely rejoin the Twins on Tuesday at Target Field. The return of Lewis will force some interesting decisions elsewhere.

Most immediately, the Twins need to make room on the active roster. Who goes to make room? Jordan Luplow is a logical candidate, although he's made a nice short-term impact and Castro is more functionally redundant. Both have options.

Then the question becomes: how does Lewis fit back into the lineup? Presumably he'll take over on a semi-regular basis at third, although that seems to leave Jorge Polanco in the lurch. It would be really helpful if either of those guys could step in at first base, but there's no indication that's in the cards. 

We'll see how Lewis slots back into the lineup with a bunch of righty match-ups on deck, but the idea of him mixing into the top of the order alongside Julien, Correa and Wallner is pretty exciting.

LOOKING AHEAD

The schedule is about to get much kinder to the Twins, now that they've finally completed a grueling stretch full of consecutive road trips and few days off. All but two of their remaining games in August will be at Target Field, where they have a .580 winning percentage this year. 

Their five games in the coming week are all at home, where the Twins will face two bottom-tier opponents with a pair of off days mixed in. Here's a chance to catch their breath and hopefully rattle off some dubs.

TUESDAY, 8/15: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Alex Faedo v. RHP Bailey Ober
WEDNESDAY, 8/16: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Reese Olson v. RHP Kenta Maeda
FRIDAY, 8/18: PIRATES @ TWINS – TBD v. TBD
SATURDAY, 8/19: PIRATES @ TWINS – RHP Mitch Keller v. RHP Pablo Lopez
SUNDAY, 8/20: PIRATES @ TWINS – RHP Quinn Priester v. RHP Sonny Gray

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[Maybebaby]

These guys are professional athletes someone be it Lewis or Polanco should be fine at 1b!

 

[Craig Arko]

Prediction: Castro and his bad back to IL to make room for Lewis.

[IndianaTwin]

If Keuchel was done, I suspect they would have done it immediately.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I agree with Craig Arko. Castro will go on the IL on Monday or Tuesday backdated to Saturday to make room for Lewis. Luplow and Gallo will stay with the team.

Keuchel is a tough one. I could see them giving him one more shot against a poor team like the Pirates since he's had one good outing and one bad one, unless Ryan is ready to go. I could also see them dropping him for Ryan or for Varland, or making him the long man out of the bullpen. I would prefer they DFA him with Varland up if Ryan isn't ready or Varland in the bullpen if Ryan is ready. I don't think I'm right though; I think Keuchel gets at least one more start. Doesn't make sense to me short term and really no sense long term but I just can see it happening that way.  

[USAFChief]

36 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I agree with Craig Arko. Castro will go on the IL on Monday or Tuesday backdated to Saturday to make room for Lewis. Luplow and Gallo will stay with the team.

Keuchel is a tough one. I could see them giving him one more shot against a poor team like the Pirates since he's had one good outing and one bad one, unless Ryan is ready to go. I could also see them dropping him for Ryan or for Varland, or making him the long man out of the bullpen. I would prefer they DFA him with Varland up if Ryan isn't ready or Varland in the bullpen if Ryan is ready. I don't think I'm right though; I think Keuchel gets at least one more start. Doesn't make sense to me short term and really no sense long term but I just can see it happening that way.  

I think Ryan went on 15 day IL on 3 Aug. Can't come back until at least the 18th.

They can get there without using Kuechel given 2 off days this week. Lopez' regular turn would be the off day Thursday. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

I think if they go with a 4 man rotation everyone gets at least 4 days rest through the 25th. Ober on the 15th, Maeda the 16th (both on 5 days rest), Lopez the 18th (5 days rest), Gray the 19th (5 days rest), and then, next Sunday the 20th, Ober is back on 4 days rest. Maeda on 5 days rest on Tuesday the 22nd, Lopez and Gray on 4 days rest on the 23rd and 24th, Ober on 4 days rest on the 25th. We really don't need the 5th guy until the 26th. 

Makes one wonder if a Keuchel DFA as a way to open up a spot for Lewis on Tuesday might make sense. He doesn't get claimed, we outright him to AAA, and he can be depth again.  We go with 12 pitchers for the next 10 days. Might make a lot of sense.   

[mikelink45]

This team likes the vets - not sure they will move on from Keuchel even though it makes sense. 

I am so confused between Twins great and Twins awful and the ying and yang of their play that I am stumped to find something meaningful to add to your posting.

[rv78]

The more things change the more they stay the same. This team is so inconsistant that regardless of who is in the lineup or on the mound you have no idea what you're going to get. Get swept by KC to lose 5 in a row, then beat up on the Cards and DBacks, then lose 3 of 4 to Detroit then take 2 of 3 from Philly. On again off again. Yeah, the next 5 are against the easy Tigers and Pirates and they will probably lose 4 of 5. It's a good thing for the FO, Rocco and the coaches that they'll be able to back their way into the playoffs since they have no competition in their division. That alone will probably save their jobs for another season and we'll get to live with this crap in 2024 again.

[mickster]

13 hours ago, Maybebaby said:

These guys are professional athletes someone be it Lewis or Polanco should be fine at 1b!

 

If we could stick Arraez at 1B last year, I am sure either of these two could do it.

[chpettit19]

I think I've been pretty clear that I disliked the Keuchel experiment from the jump, but I won't be convinced it's done until he's officially off the roster. I wouldn't at all be surprised to find out that Ober has a very similar groin issue to Ryan that he didn't tell the team about that happened just before he started to struggle. And with the off days they have coming up it's pretty easy to shift Keuchel to Ober's rotation spot when Ryan comes off the IL (hopefully this week). This FO loves it's washed up vets, so I'll believe Keuchel is done when they actually cut him.

[Minny505]

8 hours ago, mickster said:

If we could stick Arraez at 1B last year, I am sure either of these two could do it.

Or just move Julien to 1B. I don't know if his long-term future is at 1B, but I do know it isn't at 2B.

[Major League Ready]

43 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

Or just move Julien to 1B. I don't know if his long-term future is at 1B, but I do know it isn't at 2B.

If Julien is healthy, I would take an even money bet that he gets the most innings at 2B of anyone on the team in 2024.

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

If Julien is healthy, I would take an even money bet that he gets the most innings at 2B of anyone on the team in 2024.

100% this. 

[Minny505]

32 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

If Julien is healthy, I would take an even money bet that he gets the most innings at 2B of anyone on the team in 2024.

Because you believe that is the best decision for ther team?

Or you think that is what the team believes is the best decision for the team?

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

Because you believe that is the best decision for ther team?

Or you think that is what the team believes is the best decision for the team?

Speaking for me, because he's the best for the team......he hits like a legit OF, but can play 2B....and he likely can't play anywhere else. I'd be ok if he was the DH, but I don't see that happening any time soon....

[Blyleven2011]

Week review  ...

Cleveland bad and Twins are bad ...

Standings pretty much the same as the week before  ...

Seems like No one wants to play to win ,  some is going to limp in and win this weak division  ....

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Week review  ...

Cleveland bad and Twins are bad ...

Standings pretty much the same as the week before  ...

Seems like No one wants to play to win ,  some is going to limp in and win this weak division  ....

Fangraphs has the TWins the 11th best team.....and they are over .500. I'm not sure "bad" is the correct word at all. Mediocre I can buy....but not BAD.

[Blyleven2011]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Fangraphs has the TWins the 11th best team.....and they are over .500. I'm not sure "bad" is the correct word at all. Mediocre I can buy....but not BAD.

Don't really care what the right word is ,  

The point was the teams , Cleveland and Twins are the same as the week before ...

Cleveland was a seller at deadline and still hanging in contention  for the division  , maybe even Detroit has a shot too  ...

I haven't followed the standings much this year , bit ill go check them now ...

[Minny505]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Speaking for me, because he's the best for the team......he hits like a legit OF, but can play 2B....and he likely can't play anywhere else. I'd be ok if he was the DH, but I don't see that happening any time soon....

At 6'2" and a 65th percentile sprint speed, plus decently strong arm with the caveat of a 60 foot throw that looks like it might not cut it at 2B on a Town Ball club (he looks like he has the yips on short throws), I think his 1a position would be LF and his 1b position would be 1B. He legitimately looks like one of the most awkward, unathletic 2B I have ever seen play at the MLB level.

And if (when🤞) we have the situation of Lewis, Lee, and Julien vying for regular playing time a year from now, I can't imagine keeping Julien at 2B over one of those two, but I also don't want to relegate Julien, or any player, to full-time DH. 

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

At 6'2" and a 65th percentile sprint speed, plus decently strong arm with the caveat of a 60 foot throw that looks like it might not cut it at 2B on a Town Ball club (he looks like he has the yips on short throws), I think his 1a position would be LF and his 1b position would be 1B. He legitimately looks like one of the most awkward, unathletic 2B I have ever seen play at the MLB level.

And if (when🤞) we have the situation of Lewis, Lee, and Julien vying for regular playing time a year from now, I can't imagine keeping Julien at 2B over one of those two, but I also don't want to relegate Julien, or any player, to full-time DH. 

They had him in LF in the minors. They have Wallner in left, he's not going anywhere most likely, unless they don't bring back Kepler and move Wallner to RF. Also, Martin is likely to be a MUCH better LFer than Julien, much like Lee will be 2B......so if you move him for Lee, do you move him for Martin? That said, yes, Lee will field much better, but will he hit like Julien? If Julien had played all year, he'd be a top 5 or so 2b in fWAR, even with his bad defense......

Why are people so opposed to Julien being the full time DH, if he hits like this?

[Major League Ready]

14 hours ago, Minny505 said:

Because you believe that is the best decision for ther team?

Or you think that is what the team believes is the best decision for the team?

What Mike said.  I would add that I have never seen him play 1B nor do I have access to all the coaches providing feedback.  Other factors like where they think Lewis and Lee end up also come into play.  No doubt, this will be a factor.  Lewis to the OF where they need help much more so than the IF would change things substantially.  I also don’t develop players for a living.  With all of this in mind, it would be naïve for me to believe I have a better understanding of where Julien should play than Twin’s management so all I can do is speculate knowing I don't know enough.

An IF of Kirilloff / Julien / Lee and Correa with an OF of Lewis / Wallner / Buxton and Jeffers catching looks pretty good to me.  
 

[Minny505]

5 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

What Mike said.  I would add that I have never seen him play 1B nor do I have access to all the coaches providing feedback.  Other factors like where they think Lewis and Lee end up also come into play.  No doubt, this will be a factor.  Lewis to the OF where they need help much more so than the IF would change things substantially.  I also don’t develop players for a living.  With all of this in mind, it would be naïve for me to believe I have a better understanding of where Julien should play than Twin’s management so all I can do is speculate knowing I don't know enough.

An IF of Kirilloff / Julien / Lee and Correa with an OF of Lewis / Wallner / Buxton and Jeffers catching looks pretty good to me.  
 

Taking SS (Correa) and DH (to keep it roving) out of play, let's discuss.

The Twins have stated Lewis will not play the OF. That leaves 3B, 2B, or 1B. Seems like a waste of athleticism to put him at 1B, so let's limit it to 3B/2B.

The Twins have stated Julien will play 2B and that is all. That leaves Lewis with 3B.

Does Lee go to 1B then? I doubt he moves to the OF.

Maybe a 4 player rotation of Lewis, Lee, Julien, and Correa at SS/2B/3B? That could work to keep them all healthy and the way the team has used Lee at AAA would indicate this is a possibility.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. After Lewis's injury in the OF, I find it more likely that Julien moves to the OF than Lewis. 

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

Taking SS (Correa) and DH (to keep it roving) out of play, let's discuss.

The Twins have stated Lewis will not play the OF. That leaves 3B, 2B, or 1B. Seems like a waste of athleticism to put him at 1B, so let's limit it to 3B/2B.

The Twins have stated Julien will play 2B and that is all. That leaves Lewis with 3B.

Does Lee go to 1B then? I doubt he moves to the OF.

Maybe a 4 player rotation of Lewis, Lee, Julien, and Correa at SS/2B/3B? That could work to keep them all healthy and the way the team has used Lee at AAA would indicate this is a possibility.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. After Lewis's injury in the OF, I find it more likely that Julien moves to the OF than Lewis. 

Have they said Lewis won't play OF in the future, or this year?

[Minny505]

18 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

They had him in LF in the minors. They have Wallner in left, he's not going anywhere most likely, unless they don't bring back Kepler and move Wallner to RF. Also, Martin is likely to be a MUCH better LFer than Julien, much like Lee will be 2B......so if you move him for Lee, do you move him for Martin? That said, yes, Lee will field much better, but will he hit like Julien? If Julien had played all year, he'd be a top 5 or so 2b in fWAR, even with his bad defense......

Why are people so opposed to Julien being the full time DH, if he hits like this?

I'm not disuting his value as a 2B. My point is that he might provide even more value eslewhere.

I'm not opposed to him being a DH, I'd just rather find a place in the field he can provide average-ish defense if possible. Maybe he can do that at 2B. But even so, I have no doubt Lewis and Lee would both be better defenders at 2B. 

For right now, there is no rush to move him off 2B, but he may be forced off the position by this time next year. I hope he is. That means both Lewis and Lee are crushing it. It's a good "problem" to have.

[wabene]

1 minute ago, Minny505 said:

I'm not disuting his value as a 2B. My point is that he might provide even more value eslewhere.

I'm not opposed to him being a DH, I'd just rather find a place in the field he can provide average-ish defense if possible. Maybe he can do that at 2B. But even so, I have no doubt Lewis and Lee would both be better defenders at 2B. 

For right now, there is no rush to move him off 2B, but he may be forced off the position by this time next year. I hope he is. That means both Lewis and Lee are crushing it. It's a good "problem" to have.

I don't think Lee will be up this year. Maybe a cup of coffee. I'd also bet he starts next year at AAA and comes up based on service time manipulation. That's the way the system is set up. 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, wabene said:

I don't think Lee will be up this year. Maybe a cup of coffee. I'd also bet he starts next year at AAA and comes up based on service time manipulation. That's the way the system is set up. 

The Twins have largely ignored service time manipulation....Buxton maybe being the one exception with this FO. I just don't buy that....if they need Lee at the start of next year, he'll be in MN, IMO.

[Minny505]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

Have they said Lewis won't play OF in the future, or this year?

Just as with Julien playing 2B, I am not aware of the team having given a timeline regarding their positional statements.

But just as a hypothetical, if Lewis can be a good defensive 2B and Julien can be an average LF (the bar for LF defense is very low), I'd prefer that to Lewis being a good LF and Julien a below-average 2B.

[Minny505]

2 minutes ago, wabene said:

I don't think Lee will be up this year. Maybe a cup of coffee. I'd also bet he starts next year at AAA and comes up based on service time manipulation. That's the way the system is set up. 

That's why I said this time next year.

[Minny505]

20 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Fangraphs has the TWins the 11th best team.....and they are over .500. I'm not sure "bad" is the correct word at all. Mediocre I can buy....but not BAD.

By the BaseRuns metric, Fangraphs ranks the Twins as the 7th best team in MLB. Hardly bad.