Twins Wrestle with Trade Deadline Consequences of a Spring Decision

[Nate Palmer]

The Twins gave away a quality reliever just before the start of the season. That decision will haunt them the rest of the season as they were only able to swap relievers and not truly add to their bullpen depth for the stretch run. 

Image courtesy of Mike Watters, USA TODAY Sports

As well documented, the Minnesota Twins trade deadline came with much noise but no action. That deadline could have looked much better if the front office hadn't made things tougher on themselves just before the season began. 

As the opening day roster was getting its final refinements, a decision about the once often-injured left-handed reliever, Danny Coulombe, was needed. Over the past three seasons, Coulombe pitched for the Twins in a somewhat limited fashion, with his 34 1/3 innings in 2021 being the most for a single season. Even though limited, when he was healthy, Coulombe proved to be a quality secondary setup man for the Twins over the past three seasons. 

As Coulombe was healthy and pitching well this spring, he appeared to have earned himself a spot in the Twins' pen. In the Twins' eyes, there was still a battle for the last spot. That battle for the final spot came down to Coulombe or Cole Sands. (Emilio Pagan's name should likely be here, but we know that story by now.) The Twins went with Sands and collected cash from Baltimore for Coulombe. 

That has made Coulombe an essential part of the Orioles bullpen, throwing 37 innings with a 2.92 ERA, 11.2 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, and a 144 ERA+. The lefty has pitched well against both sides of the plate, although with much more success getting strikeouts against right-handed batters. With the ongoing struggles with injuries and ineffectiveness in the Twins bullpen, Coulombe would have been a valuable piece in Minnesota. Coulombe would have helped Pagan pitch fewer innings, Jovani Moran pitch fewer innings, and more help during Caleb Thielbar and Brock Stewart's injury. 

Instead, the Twins went with Sands to begin the season. Sands has appeared in 10 games, throwing 14 innings. That comes with a 4.50 ERA, 9.0 K/9, 5.8 BB/9, and a 98 ERA+. It also includes about a week when Sands was in the bullpen, and the Twins seemed unwilling and unconfident to pitch him even though the rest was running on fumes. 

The handling of Coulombe is a further example of how the Twins need help to self-evaluate players within their system. Coulombe may not go on to become the next great setup man or closer for anyone, but he has found an impactful role on a very competitive team. A role he should have filled in Minnesota. 

The negative impact of the move is only that much more accented now that the Twins were unable or unwilling to swing a trade for a reliever at the deadline. The lack of movement might have been more tolerable if Coulombe was still in a Twins uniform. As it stands, this roster has a lot of question marks attached to it. If they aren't now answered internally in a way that leads to the playoffs, the questions might begin getting more heated for the front office. While it was a minor move, the Coulombe decision has significant ripple effects on the season for the Twins. 

View full article

[dxpavelka]

You're right. That decision may well have come down to him or Emilio Pagan.  Now take your Emilio Pagan sucks goggles off an compare the two objectively.  Is it REALLY a slam dunk either way?

 

[Blyleven2011]

Velocity over ruled finesse  ...

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Yet another "we made the wrong choice in hindsight" article...

Amazing that we are cheering for a first place team and virtually every op-ed article is negative...

[RpR]

7 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Yet another "we made the wrong choice in hindsight" article...

Amazing that we are cheering for a first place team and virtually every op-ed article is negative...

Grass is greener on the other side of the fence.

[GKuehl]

If only some of us were hollering for the Twins to keep Coulombe. Oh wait ... *checks own comments from Spring Training* ... some of us were. 

[DocBauer]

Sands should have opened in St Paul and Coulombe should have been a 3rd LH in the pen. Further, Fulmer should have been re-signed with Alcala probably also with the Saints instead of being depended on coming off injury. Think how different the pen...which hasn't been bad...looks with Coulombe and Fulmer kept?

[adorduan]

3 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Yet another "we made the wrong choice in hindsight" article...

Amazing that we are cheering for a first place team and virtually every op-ed article is negative...

A team barely over .500 in the worst division in baseball.....how inspiring.

[Kenny Powers]

Cole Sands has pitched in 10 games this year.  Eight of those ten appearances, he gave up zero runs.  In one of the other two appearances, he pitched two innings and gave up one (solo) HR.  And, yeah - he had one (6 run) clunker.

His numbers at AAA this year are very good.  I'm fine with keeping 25 year old Cole Sands with options over 33 year old Coulumbe without options.  They've had success rotating AAA guys in/out when the bullpen gets burned.  Sands, Winder, Ortega, Headrick etc. all have been part of that rotation/flexibility.  It's like having a floating active roster spot and all those guys have been fine IMO.

[USAFChief]

22 minutes ago, Kenny Powers said:

Cole Sands has pitched in 10 games this year.  Eight of those ten appearances, he gave up zero runs.  In one of the other two appearances, he pitched two innings and gave up one (solo) HR.  And, yeah - he had one (6 run) clunker.

His numbers at AAA this year are very good.  I'm fine with keeping 25 year old Cole Sands with options over 33 year old Coulumbe without options.  They've had success rotating AAA guys in/out when the bullpen gets burned.  Sands, Winder, Ortega, Headrick etc. all have been part of that rotation/flexibility.  It's like having a floating active roster spot and all those guys have been fine IMO.

Cole Sands effectively makes the 26 man roster 25.

The object is to win games. Roster filler doesn't win baseball games. 

Has Sands had any actual impact on the 2023 MN Twins?

[FlyingFinn]

Cano bugs me even more. Orioles changed his arm angle and suddenly he is a hard throwing reliever who throws strikes in the majors. 

[Kenny Powers]

19 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Cole Sands effectively makes the 26 man roster 25.

The object is to win games. Roster filler doesn't win baseball games. 

Has Sands had any actual impact on the 2023 MN Twins?

Yes.  He's given them 14 innings (so far) plus flexibility and depth.  

How has he hurt them?  To win games, you need outs.  Using that last bullpen spot to rotate in AAA guys helps save the rest of the bullpen from being over used.  It's not turning the 26 man roster into 25 as you stated.  It's turning the 26 man roster into 27.

[dxpavelka]

Headline's a little deceptive.  My guess is that the Twins aren't wrestling with that at all.  Rubes and guys who write for websites might be but the team not so much.

 

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Kenny Powers said:

Yes.  He's given them 14 innings (so far) plus flexibility and depth.  

How has he hurt them?  To win games, you need outs.  Using that last bullpen spot to rotate in AAA guys helps save the rest of the bullpen from being over used.  It's not turning the 26 man roster into 25 as you stated.  It's turning the 26 man roster into 27.

Sands was active from May 13 through June 4. He got 8.1 innings.

He then went on the DL, back active July 5 through 28. 3 appearances, 1.2 IP. One. Point. Two.

During that stretch the Twins went 8-12 and the pen was stretched thinner than thin.

He didn't help "save the rest of the pen." In the least. Nobody, including Baldelli, wants him in any game that hasn't been decided. Emergency or mop up only. 

He doesnt give them "flexibility and depth." A warm body isn't depth. He wastes a roster spot. 

[Eris]

Baltimore is a fun team to watch this year. By having hindsight regret we are assuming Coulombe would have pitched as well for the Twins as he has for the Orioles. Both Cano and Coulombe are having career years. Maybe the coaching staffs have something to do with this. 

[Twodogs]

1 hour ago, Eris said:

Baltimore is a fun team to watch this year. By having hindsight regret we are assuming Coulombe would have pitched as well for the Twins as he has for the Orioles. Both Cano and Coulombe are having career years. Maybe the coaching staffs have something to do with this. 

This is exactly correct.  This is all about spilt milk.  It's all said and done and no one really complained about sending Cano for Lopez last season and no one cried when Danny didn't make the roster.  But now that they are doing well people are upset.  But like the post above says, it probably says more about the coaching than it does about the players in the Twins system.  It appears that either Baltimore's coaches are better than the Twins coaches, or maybe the Twins coaches mess with the players too much and maybe Baltimore just let them be themselves and play??  I'm not sure which one happened, but one of them did because these weren't 21 year olds with their first taste in the pros and all of the sudden they got it, these guys had a lot of years behind them and re found what got them looked at in the first place.

[Nate Palmer]

3 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Headline's a little deceptive.  My guess is that the Twins aren't wrestling with that at all.  Rubes and guys who write for websites might be but the team not so much.

 

So, we're good with this bullpen? 

[Nate Palmer]

4 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Cano bugs me even more. Orioles changed his arm angle and suddenly he is a hard throwing reliever who throws strikes in the majors. 

The difference with Cano is he was hurt and not doing anything for the Twins last season when traded off. Cano flashed some intriguing stuff but wasn't by any means a sure thing. Coulombe was sitting there ready to contribute as soon as the season started and the only thing keeping him from doing that in the past with the Twins was injury. 

[TwinkieFan4life]

9 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Yet another "we made the wrong choice in hindsight" article...

Amazing that we are cheering for a first place team and virtually every op-ed article is negative...

Given the team's record, I just would have left it at "Amazing that we are cheering for a first place team".

Do you really think that "virtually every op-ed is negative"?  In the past two weeks Twinsdaily writers have written pieces highlighting breakouts from Pagan, Balazovic, and Jeffers.  The Twinsdaily writers are plenty positive.  

I'm sorry that the front office keeps making bad choices.  Look at the decisions from the deadline last year to now.  What are writers supposed to do?  

 

[IndianaTwin]

8 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Sands should have opened in St Paul and Coulombe should have been a 3rd LH in the pen. Further, Fulmer should have been re-signed with Alcala probably also with the Saints instead of being depended on coming off injury. Think how different the pen...which hasn't been bad...looks with Coulombe and Fulmer kept?

Agree on Coulombe. I think his lack of having an option played a big part in letting him go. 

I was one who chimed in a couple times on wanting to re-sign Fulmer. He's started to come around, but he's really struggled for much of the year. He had a 7.36 ERA at the end of May and lost his closer job. Had he been re-signed, I suspect he'd have been getting the TD abuse Pagan did.  

[dxpavelka]

2 hours ago, Nate Palmer said:

So, we're good with this bullpen? 

Coulombe would likely have replaced Pagan.  Hasn't been any better than Pagan.  No matter how much afformentioned rubes and website writers dislike Pagan.

 

[Doctor Wu]

11 hours ago, Eris said:

Baltimore is a fun team to watch this year. By having hindsight regret we are assuming Coulombe would have pitched as well for the Twins as he has for the Orioles. Both Cano and Coulombe are having career years. Maybe the coaching staffs have something to do with this. 

That's a good question, and I've always wondered how do you measure the coaching thing? Players move to a new team and all of a sudden they become lights-out pitchers, or awesome hitters. Is the change of scenery/team, better coaching, or just plain luck? 

[Nate Palmer]

7 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Coulombe would likely have replaced Pagan.  Hasn't been any better than Pagan.  No matter how much afformentioned rubes and website writers dislike Pagan.

 

As written above, it seemed it was really between him and Sands. Pagan very well should or could have been part of that conversation but nothing has given us evidence that that was the case. Also, Coulombe has been better in just about every measure than Pagan. K/9, BB/9, K%, ERA, xERA, FIP, xFIP, WPA, and he doubles Pagan in WAR.

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, Nate Palmer said:

As written above, it seemed it was really between him and Sands. Pagan very well should or could have been part of that conversation but nothing has given us evidence that that was the case. Also, Coulombe has been better in just about every measure than Pagan. K/9, BB/9, K%, ERA, xERA, FIP, xFIP, WPA, and he doubles Pagan in WAR.

And Brock Stewart has a better WAR than Duran.  So he should be the closer when healthy?  Advanced metrics are an excellent method of predicting the past.

 

[dxpavelka]

14 hours ago, TwinkieFan4life said:

Given the team's record, I just would have left it at "Amazing that we are cheering for a first place team".

Do you really think that "virtually every op-ed is negative"?  In the past two weeks Twinsdaily writers have written pieces highlighting breakouts from Pagan, Balazovic, and Jeffers.  The Twinsdaily writers are plenty positive.  

I'm sorry that the front office keeps making bad choices.  Look at the decisions from the deadline last year to now.  What are writers supposed to do?  

 

Funny thing about baseball is that it has this thing that at the end of the day determines whether or not folks should be cheering for a first place team or any team.  It's called October.

[TwinkieFan4life]

58 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Funny thing about baseball is that it has this thing that at the end of the day determines whether or not folks should be cheering for a first place team or any team.  It's called October.

I don't disagree that fans can and should enjoy the postseason of it happens, regardless of how we get in.

I just don't agree that fans must be happy with the decisions the front office is making because we are hovering around .500 baseball.

[Kenny Powers]

18 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Sands was active from May 13 through June 4. He got 8.1 innings.

He then went on the DL, back active July 5 through 28. 3 appearances, 1.2 IP. One. Point. Two.

During that stretch the Twins went 8-12 and the pen was stretched thinner than thin.

He didn't help "save the rest of the pen." In the least. Nobody, including Baldelli, wants him in any game that hasn't been decided. Emergency or mop up only. 

He doesnt give them "flexibility and depth." A warm body isn't depth. He wastes a roster spot. 

 

From what I see, the Twins record from July 5th - July 28 was 10-8 (not 8-12 as you wrote).

As far as the 1.2 IP, did you look at the context for why that was?  From what I can see, it was a well rested pen the day he was recalled on July 5th.  The next day was a complete game by Lopez.  And then they had a day off after that.  The following week was the All Star break.  Definitely not "stretched thinner than thin" as you wrote.

Sands pitched twice the week following the All Star break which I think it pretty normal.  He allowed zero earned runs in those two appearances. 

They didn't pitch him the final week before he was sent down.  But looking at the Bullpen usage worksheets from that week, I don't really see an over worked pen.   In fact, when they optioned him on the 28th, they brought back a position player (Polanco) instead of another arm.

You have your right to your opinion that he's a "wasted roster spot".  But I'm just not seeing anything to get too bothered over with Cole Sands.  He just turned 26.  This is his first year as a full time reliever.  He's doing really well at AAA (1.80  ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 12.6 K/9).  Other than one clunker, he's pitched well when called upon this season.  As far as I'm concerned, he might be a useful arm for a few years.

 

[dxpavelka]

1 hour ago, TwinkieFan4life said:

I don't disagree that fans can and should enjoy the postseason of it happens, regardless of how we get in.

I just don't agree that fans must be happy with the decisions the front office is making because we are hovering around .500 baseball.

My point had nothing to do with enjoying the post-season and everything to do with the fact that hovering around .500 baseball does not preclude the possibility of a team making a post-season run.  Especially a team whose starting rotation leads the league in innings pitched and strikeouts and is on the cusp of leading in WHIP & BAA and not far off the lead in ERA.

 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

2 hours ago, TwinkieFan4life said:

I don't disagree that fans can and should enjoy the postseason of it happens, regardless of how we get in.

I just don't agree that fans must be happy with the decisions the front office is making because we are hovering around .500 baseball.

I will agree that I thought that this team was capable of a better record, but being in first place, while a little lucky to reside in the ALC, is an excellent place to be.  If we're in first place, I can be pleased with that fact.  It provides joy to many fans, including me.  It is also a fact that the pitching rotation, which is most of the reason the Twins are in first place, is also the result of decisions made by the front office, so apparently they don't suck at everything.  I'm certain that I haven't agreed with everything they have done, but taken as a whole, we're in a position to be successful. 

So now that that has been established, what is the magic number at which fans should be pleased?  Is it .500?  is it .550?  .600?  How about .750?  That's a 120 win season!  Now that would be something! 

Reading people's comments I sometimes feel like anything short of 162-0 wouldn't be good enough and the outrage machine would still be fully engaged because we weren't winning games by enough runs.  Back to the original post, relief pitchers are far too unpredictable to fret over a seemingly logical choice made before the season started.  If we are going to do that, we must also fully rejoice the choices that do work out, like signing Stewart or Castro.

[TwinkieFan4life]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

My point had nothing to do with enjoying the post-season and everything to do with the fact that hovering around .500 baseball does not preclude the possibility of a team making a post-season run.  Especially a team whose starting rotation leads the league in innings pitched and strikeouts and is on the cusp of leading in WHIP & BAA and not far off the lead in ERA.

 

This rotation is more deep than top heavy.  The quality of your top two or three is what matters come postseason.  Most other teams in contention have added quality arms fo the stretch run (team stats acquired earlier in the season aren't that relevant).  Ober is likely to tire.  Ryan is....well we have seen how things have unfolded.  The remaining three starters are still solid.  They will have to be incredible give the lineups they will face, the lack of depth in our pen, and our lack of offensive firepower.