Cleveland Got Worse at the Deadline; Thank the Dolans

[Peter Labuza]

Once again, the Twins find themselves in a tight race with the Guardians going the American League Central Division. And lucky for Twins fans, the only thing keeping the team alive in that race is the Cleveland Front Office going in as sellers at the deadline.

In a neck and neck race for the division, the Guardians could have easily improved their line up given the under performing Twins. Instead, they traded top pitcher Aaron Civale with two more years of team control to the Tampa Bay Rays for a first basemen prospect.

What is Cleveland doing? They had a chance to strike big and run away with the division. Once again, they seem desperate to let the Twins—who also opted for a very quiet deadline—stay in the race.

Their biggest addition was dealing away their poorly performing starting shortstop Amed Rosario to the Los Angeles Dodgers for an even more risky choice: former All Star starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard. Syndergaard took a one year deal with the Dodgers during the off season in the hopes their development team might turn him into a high quality rebound like Tyler Anderson or Andrew Heaney. But Syndergaard seemed more focused on bringing back his velocity than his pitch design, ending up on the Injured List as a way to stash him rather than let him throw. Cleveland’s plan seems to be to try their own development, and his Guardians debut against the Astros looks good until he took a ball to the knee (though xWOBA tells a very different story), but it's hard to say whether real changes in approach are coming. 

Another trade? Giving up recent acquisition Josh Bell for the Marlins' Jean Segura, who has a 55 WRC+ this season and the Guardians plan on immediately releasing, alongside shortstop prospect Kahlil Watson.

 

So once again, Cleveland acted more as a seller than a buyer. It has worked out in the past—just ask a 2022 team that almost slipped by the Yankees in the Division series. But why can’t the Guardians build on this weak division and become perennial contenders rather than slipping in thanks to injuries?

The truth is always been what it is: The Dolan Family, father Larry and son Paul, are the biggest culprit in keeping the Guardians from real competition. The ownership family has continually run a payroll less than half of the White Sox and Twins. They have one of the most underrated players in baseball accept a ridiculously team friendly extension worth less than Carlos Correa’s foot-hampered price tag. They get $19 million a year from city and state officials to pay for their stadium while bringing in over $250 million. The Dolan family is worth over $5 billion; what is a couple of all stars to mix in with their standout graduates from the farm? Why own a team if you don't want them to win?

Attendance is up by 44% this season for this young and exciting team, and the front officer would rather create dissapointment more than excitement.

Cleveland has at least some good reasons to stay wary about a long October run this year. The run support of last year’s single-mashing team has put them in a worse place than the Twins’ shaky offense (they ran 23rd compared to Minnesota at 15th). Three of their top starters are sidelined with iffy return dates, while their rookies are reaching their innings limits. But that should be all reasons to add, especially with a farm still ranked #2 despite major promotions in the last two years.

The only reason teams like the White Sox and the Twins have been able to steal so many division titles over the years is Dolans' refusal to put any chips in.Instead, they will roll the dice and hope Minnesota falters. Not an impossible hope, but one that benefits less competition rather than more.

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[jmlease1]

the most charitable thing you can say about the Cleveland moves is they're doing what Twins fans wish we would do with Gallo: make an underperforming player go away. Or making room for prospects to play. but it sure looks like surrender to me.

Maybe Kyle Manzardo is ready to take MLB by storm...but I don't see it.

[MMMordabito]

At least they didn't trade Civale to the Twins for E-Rod ... wait, WTF! I would have done that!

[Althebum82]

Good observation, I was actually thinking this same thought.....in any other division they should be sellers.  But not the AL Central and not this season.  

Egads Segura has hit the wall hard making a fine career through last season appear to be very over.

[1991]

The Twins should have done the same with Gray as the Guardians did with Civale.  IF the Twins make the playoffs, they will be trounced.  Sometimes you have to be a realist.  Hope is not a strategy...

[LastOnePicked]

It is odd, but it also seems like a vote of confidence for their developmental system. And that's probably earned at this point. They know the Twins at this point - they know still have a very good chance of taking this terrible division, even without Civale. We'll see.

[Nashvilletwin]

Yeah, horrible owners and franchise.  Last time in the World Series was way back in 2016 for crying out loud. They haven’t won a playoff series, or a playoff game for that matter, since October 2022.  They are so stupid and cheap they continue to retain the best manager in baseball year over year. Boy are they dumb.

Yeah, dumb - like a fox.

Despite the way the schedules roll out the last two months, let’s not count our division championship chickens before they hatch.  We’ve all seen this movie before…

 

[JD-TWINS]

9 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

It is odd, but it also seems like a vote of confidence for their developmental system. And that's probably earned at this point. They know the Twins at this point - they know still have a very good chance of taking this terrible division, even without Civale. We'll see.

Guardians play 38 games v. teams over .500 in their last 54.

Twins play 15 games v. teams over .500 in their last 54 games.

Guardians pitching is really banged up (60 day IL) & they traded Civale.

Conclusion?

[Battle ur tail off]

6 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Yeah, horrible owners and franchise.  Last time in the World Series was way back in 2016 for crying out loud. They haven’t won a playoff series, or a playoff game for that matter, since October 2022.  They are so stupid and cheap they continue to retain the best manager in baseball year over year. Boy are they dumb.

Yeah, dumb - like a fox.

Despite the way the schedules roll out the last two months, let’s not count our division championship chickens before they hatch.  We’ve all seen this movie before…

 

Agree, us DFAing Gallo and spare bullpen parts would likely lead to better performance out of our system guys. Not sure why the Twins have always been afraid to do this over the years. They HATE eating dead money on guys not on their roster I think.

[Dman]

I think the Cleveland FO is smart.  The team they have isn't ready to make any noise in the playoffs this year so even if they do lose the division what difference does it really make.  They desperately need good bats and the guy they got from Tampa has a really good chance to be not just a good bat but a special bat.  They are playing more for 2024 than 2023.  They gave their young pitcher's good experience this year and Manzardo has a good chance to make their team next year strengthening their lineup.  They look lined up to do well next year.

Despite losing Civale who knows with the way the Twins love to squander games they still might win the division as well.  I think what they did with Civale makes a ton of sense. Getting rid of Bell for an under performing bat taken high in the draft also seemed like a good play.  Even if he doesn't work out they got rid of Bell and can invest that money in another player next year.  If Watson does work out they got a 5 tool player for peanuts.  I like the risk reward factor there.

I said this in another article the Cleveland FO has the balls to make tough moves and it seems to pay off more often than not.  After those moves the Twins might be the favorites for the division this year but Cleveland will be setup better for 2024.

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Conclusion?

The Twins really don't scare the Guardians?  

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 hour ago, Dman said:

I think the Cleveland FO is smart.  The team they have isn't ready to make any noise in the playoffs this year so even if they do lose the division what difference does it really make.  They desperately need good bats and the guy they got from Tampa has a really good chance to be not just a good bat but a special bat.  They are playing more for 2024 than 2023.  They gave their young pitcher's good experience this year and Manzardo has a good chance to make their team next year strengthening their lineup.  They look lined up to do well next year.

Despite losing Civale who knows with the way the Twins love to squander games they still might win the division as well.  I think what they did with Civale makes a ton of sense. Getting rid of Bell for an under performing bat taken high in the draft also seemed like a good play.  Even if he doesn't work out they got rid of Bell and can invest that money in another player next year.  If Watson does work out they got a 5 tool player for peanuts.  I like the risk reward factor there.

I said this in another article the Cleveland FO has the balls to make tough moves and it seems to pay off more often than not.  After those moves the Twins might be the favorites for the division this year but Cleveland will be setup better for 2024.

This, thank you. 

[Beast]

So, Cleveland’s front office is smart enough to see the writing on the wall and isn’t scared to make deals?  Good for them.

I don’t care about what Cleveland did.  They still will likely beat this dog and pony show we have for the division, which makes it all the more egregious.  The Twins coughing up a big contract for a player for the second time in franchise history doesn’t change the fact that they’ve been running circles around our FO in terms of roster management on a budget for quite a long time now.

Anybody we’ll face in the playoffs, if we do make it, got much better and is going to drub us like they would a little league team.

Winning this division isn’t an accomplishment.  It should be the baseline. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

It is odd, but it also seems like a vote of confidence for their developmental system. And that's probably earned at this point. They know the Twins at this point - they know still have a very good chance of taking this terrible division, even without Civale. We'll see.

Civale is doing great but is a continual injury risk. They definitely sold high. Gutsy and probably smart. Someone compared Manzardo to Miranda, lol, did they even look at their minor league numbers?

What Cleveland did here was the equivalent of the Twins trading Gallo and Maeda. If the Twins had done that, all of the writers on here would be praising the front office to no end.

And none of the writers are mentioning how Cleveland lost their top two starters to injury. Convenient omission. Imagine the angst if the Twins had lost two of their best starters. (No, Mahle doesn’t count.)

This was the perfect season for Cleveland to retool. They can give some of their young starters a nice run, see how they perform. And Cleveland does have some nice young starters ready for the chance to break through. They always do. I don’t think they are trying to win the division this year. All the better for the Twins who seem to be in “win now” mode anyway. Unlike the Twins, Cleveland does have some problems to address in the offseason, but Antonetti has set them up nicely for 2024 and beyond. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

5 minutes ago, Beast said:

Winning this division isn’t an accomplishment.  It should be the baseline

Cleveland and Minnesota should be dueling it out with 90-plus win seasons year after year. That’s what a fun summer of baseball looks like to me! 

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

Civale's trade value was likely 4x-5x higher than Sonny Gray's and 6x-7x higher than Maeda's. Our prospect haul for those guys likely would not have made a meaningful impact in 2024/25/26. There's no reason to punt on playoffs this year just to marginally improve our chances in 2027.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

23 minutes ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

Civale's trade value was likely 4x-5x higher than Sonny Gray's and 6x-7x higher than Maeda's. Our prospect haul for those guys likely would not have made a meaningful impact in 2024/25/26. There's no reason to punt on playoffs this year just to marginally improve our chances in 2027.

I want to see a competitive AL Central race as much as the next guy, but Cleveland has had the looks of a 90 loss team since about mid-June. Their GM apparently saw the same thing I was seeing. Or vice versa. Good year for them to retool. 

I’m seeing people really downplaying that 1B prospect. Sounds more like sour grapes, but who knows. You mention he will have impact in 2027. By that timeline, we should expect Julien to start having an impact by 2026, then? 

By the way, welcome to Twins Daily. 🙂

[Eris]

It is also possible that a straightened out Syndergaard is a better pitcher than Civale. Depends on whether Syndergaard is willing to listen to Cleveland’s coaches better that the Dodgers. Looks like Cleveland sold high on Civale and bought low on Syndergaard. 

[RickOShea]

2 hours ago, Dman said:

I think the Cleveland FO is smart.  The team they have isn't ready to make any noise in the playoffs this year so even if they do lose the division what difference does it really make.  They desperately need good bats and the guy they got from Tampa has a really good chance to be not just a good bat but a special bat.  They are playing more for 2024 than 2023.  They gave their young pitcher's good experience this year and Manzardo has a good chance to make their team next year strengthening their lineup.  They look lined up to do well next year.

Despite losing Civale who knows with the way the Twins love to squander games they still might win the division as well.  I think what they did with Civale makes a ton of sense. Getting rid of Bell for an under performing bat taken high in the draft also seemed like a good play.  Even if he doesn't work out they got rid of Bell and can invest that money in another player next year.  If Watson does work out they got a 5 tool player for peanuts.  I like the risk reward factor there.

I said this in another article the Cleveland FO has the balls to make tough moves and it seems to pay off more often than not.  After those moves the Twins might be the favorites for the division this year but Cleveland will be setup better for 2024.

Another smart move was letting Minnesota hire Falvey.  They knew what Falvey was all about.

[jmlease1]

6 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I’m seeing people really downplaying that 1B prospect. Sounds more like sour grapes, but who knows. You mention he will have impact in 2027. By that timeline, we should expect Julien to start having an impact by 2026, then? 

 

The prospect is fine, just doesn't look like one who is ready to contribute today, which means they dumped one of their best pitchers, a player under team control for 2 more seasons after this one for a prospect that's not ready for prime time while in the middle of a division race,

I get the argument that if you don't see yourself winning the title this year you should sell off assets to try and retool yourself into a title contender. I just think it's a deeply flawed argument, especially in baseball. the differences between the best teams in baseball and the ones in the middle often show the most strongly over the length of a season, not in a 5 or 7 game series, where all it might take for things to get flipped the other way is a reliever to implode out of nowhere or a couple of key bats going 0-10 at the wrong time while the other side plays its best baseball. but the second part of it is if you're retooling for 2024 or even 2025...why would you move on from a quality starting pitcher under team control for that period? If Cleveland is planning on competing in 2024, Civale could be a difference-maker. If they're not planning on competing until 2026 or later, why aren't you dealing Jose Ramirez as well, since he'll be on the down side of 30 with a lot of miles on him. I mean, his value's never been higher, right?

[jkcarew]

Cleveland has a pretty well established record of doing more with less than the Twins. This seems pretty consistent with that trend, IMO.

Takes guts to acknowledge when a race really isn’t a race. Civale will sting…but the Bell move doesn’t make them an ounce worse.

[wsnydes]

3 hours ago, Dman said:

I think the Cleveland FO is smart.  The team they have isn't ready to make any noise in the playoffs this year so even if they do lose the division what difference does it really make.  They desperately need good bats and the guy they got from Tampa has a really good chance to be not just a good bat but a special bat.  They are playing more for 2024 than 2023.  They gave their young pitcher's good experience this year and Manzardo has a good chance to make their team next year strengthening their lineup.  They look lined up to do well next year.

Despite losing Civale who knows with the way the Twins love to squander games they still might win the division as well.  I think what they did with Civale makes a ton of sense. Getting rid of Bell for an under performing bat taken high in the draft also seemed like a good play.  Even if he doesn't work out they got rid of Bell and can invest that money in another player next year.  If Watson does work out they got a 5 tool player for peanuts.  I like the risk reward factor there.

I said this in another article the Cleveland FO has the balls to make tough moves and it seems to pay off more often than not.  After those moves the Twins might be the favorites for the division this year but Cleveland will be setup better for 2024.

I think there's a of truth in this.  I also think Cleveland's window is probably opening back up, whereas it's closing here.  That's a big difference in my mind, but there are merits to your post that are hard to disagree with.

[Dman]

34 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

 

I’m seeing people really downplaying that 1B prospect. Sounds more like sour grapes, but who knows. You mention he will have impact in 2027. By that timeline, we should expect Julien to start having an impact by 2026, then? 

 

Yeah people need to read the MLB bio. His walk and K rates were virtually identical at High A and he still has had good ratio's all the way up to AAA. He averaged a 1.000 OPS his first full pro season.  Not many, if any players do that for a full season let alone their first full pro season.  While his AAA numbers this year aren't as good they aren't bad either.  Just not elite.  Still his hitting profile looks really strong it is a Brooks Lee profile as he doesn't have a ton of power but he can still hit some.  At any rate with good contact skills and eye at the plate this is a good pickup for the Guardians.

[Mike Sixel]

Who win the division last year? They traded a bad SS and made room for good prospects. I wish Minnesota would do that. 

Civale is not as good as his era and gets hurt. They sold high. Might be a mistake, might not. But doing nothing is risky too. It is a choice. They decided to try to make their team younger and better. I applaud that. 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, wsnydes said:

I think there's a of truth in this.  I also think Cleveland's window is probably opening back up, whereas it's closing here.  That's a big difference in my mind, but there are merits to your post that are hard to disagree with.

Why is our window closing?  The position players making the biggest difference right now are Julien / Kirilloff and Jeffers.  Lewis looks to be a big contributor and Wallner has flashed signs of brilliance.  That's 5 core position players that are just getting started with Lee waiting in the wings.  Do we think Correa and Buxton are cooked.   

We have multiple years of control left with Lopez / Ryan / Ober / Paddack / Duran / Jax and Stewart.  All that young talent will give us about 50M to spend on free agents.  Why is our window closing.  I say it might be ready to open.

[wsnydes]

26 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Why is our window closing?  The position players making the biggest difference right now are Julien / Kirilloff and Jeffers.  Lewis looks to be a big contributor and Wallner has flashed signs of brilliance.  That's 5 core position players that are just getting started with Lee waiting in the wings.  Do we think Correa and Buxton are cooked.   

We have multiple years of control left with Lopez / Ryan / Ober / Paddack / Duran / Jax and Stewart.  All that young talent will give us about 50M to spend on free agents.  Why is our window closing.  I say it might be ready to open.

Mainly because of the long term outlook on the position players.  Even the depth in the pitching doesn't excite me too much.  I think there needs to be more development from the young core.  

I'm also not suggesting that they're headed towards rebuild territory.  I think other teams will pass them by though.  Which is a big part in this conversation, in my opinion.  It's not just about this team.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, wsnydes said:

Mainly because of the long term outlook on the position players.  Even the depth in the pitching doesn't excite me too much.  I think there needs to be more development from the young core.  

I'm also not suggesting that they're headed towards rebuild territory.  I think other teams will pass them by though.  Which is a big part in this conversation, in my opinion.  It's not just about this team.

We are basically on the same page.  I see the Rosario / Sano / Polanco / Kepler core window closing and the Julien / Lewis / Kirilloff / Wallner / Lee core emerging.  Only time will tell but I am pretty bullish on the long-term outlook of that group.  The previous group did not have any hold over (extended players).  This group has Buxton and Correa.  Theoretically, that should be a big advantage over the previous group.  Of course, this group has a far better core of pitchers with Lopez / Ryan / Ober / Duran and Jax.  Stewart might just be a core player too.   All of this is an optimistic view but that's a lot to build around.  Like any team entering a new window, the relative advancement of these young guys will determine if they are pretenders or contenders.  

It would really help if a couple of prospects that are relatively surprising this year turn out to be real.  Guys like Prato and Severino might be nothing but could be quite good.  A happy surprise or two would be real nice.    Perhaps I just prefer to see a window opening vs one closing but it's more fun to be an optimist.

[old nurse]

The production of Josh Bell this year is such that if he was with the Twins these threads would be full of trade him comments. See Kepler, Max. Cleveland sold Civale high. Numbers ve peripherals. ERA he is a stud, peripherals, he is as he has been, a 4th starter

[Minny505]

Trading away Bell and Rosario is improvement by subtraction.

Essentially swapping Civale for Syndergard is a loss, but I think it is a net improvement with who will take the places of Bell and Rosario.

Seeing what the Guards got for Josh Bell makes me wonder why the Twins couldn't do the same with Gallo, who likely has more value with (1)positional flexibility, (2)a better OPS, (3)a lower $$ contract, and (4)is only signed through 2023. 

I don't want my favorite team to be run like the Guardians in all aspects, but the ability to pivot when their original plan went south, is admirable.

To make a bad analogy: Falvey plays GM like the guy at the poker table that gets pocket Ace and King of spades. Raises the blind, then flops numbered red cards...and goes all in. 

[jmlease1]

12 hours ago, Minny505 said:

.Seeing what the Guards got for Josh Bell makes me wonder why the Twins couldn't do the same with Gallo, who likely has more value with (1)positional flexibility, (2)a better OPS, (3)a lower $$ contract, and (4)is only signed through 2023. 

Didn't they trade Bell for a player that they're cutting? That was a pure salary dump. Gallo may have a better OPS right now, but it's been in free fall since the first month of the season; Bell has been at least consistent and might be effective as a platoon bat. I'm not going to pretend Bell has significant value, but he's still more likely to be consistently productive.