3 Options for the Twins with Dallas Keuchel's Pending Opt-Out

[Cody Christie]

The Twins signed Dallas Keuchel to add veteran starting pitching depth to the organization for the second half. Now, the club is facing a crossroads with a handful of options on the table.

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints

Minnesota agreed to a minor league deal with Dallas Keuchel at the end of June. He was coming off of two disastrous seasons where he posted a 6.35 ERA in over 222 innings. Keuchel has never been a flame-throwing lefty, but his average fastball velocity dipped to under 88 mph last season. No teams showed interest in him over the winter, but Keuchel wasn't ready to retire. Instead, he headed to Driveline Baseball and started working on his repertoire. 

Keuchel added some velocity while also seeing some improvement in his sinker and sweeper during his time at Driveline. With improved results, the Twins hoped that he could show the ability to be a back-of-the-rotation starter or even a bulk-inning reliever. His performance with the Saints has been terrific, and that might leave the Twins with some tough decisions before his opt-out on August 1st. 

In six starts, Keuchel allowed four earned runs (1.13 ERA) on 28 hits in 32 innings. He posted a 28-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His numbers have been terrific, and he is likely done pitching in minor-league games. Either the Twins or another big-league team will want Keuchel pitching innings for them in the season's final months.

Following his final start, Keuchel said, "I know my opt-out is on Tuesday. Derek (Falvey) and the organization have been very transparent with me. A lot of teams that need help still are figuring out moves in the big leagues. This is a place that I want to be, and I'd still like to be up with Minnesota. I have provided what I needed to do, and shown myself what I am still capable of doing."

So, what are the Twins' options with Keuchel before his opt-out deadline?

Option 1: Add Keuchel to the Twins' 26-man roster
According to reports, the Twins considered trading Kenta Maeda to make room for Keuchel in the team's starting rotation. However, Maeda has recently been the team's best starter, so he forced the team to readjust their plans. Minnesota has two scheduled off days in less than a week, so the club has dropped down to 12 pitchers on the active roster. The Twins can add Keuchel to the 26-man roster following Monday's off-day before the St. Louis series. Keuchel can be added as another long-man in the bullpen, or the club can temporarily switch to a six-man starting rotation, a strategy the front office has considered in 2023. 

Option 2: Trade Keuchel
Another option is to trade Keuchel if the Twins get an appropriate offer or if the team can't find room for him on the 26-man roster. His Triple-A performance indicates that he can be a capable back-of-the-rotation option, and plenty of teams need depth to make it through the second half. Keuchel likely won't bring back a significant return, but he might garner a lower-level minor-league player with potential upside. The Twins are expected to make multiple trades before the deadline so that the club can include Keuchel in a deal. There is also a possibility the club trades another starter, opening a spot for Keuchel at the big-league level. 

Option 3: Allow Keuchel to Exercise His Opt-Out
Allowing Keuchel to leave for nothing is the least likely option for the Twins at this point. Minnesota would only do this if Keuchel drew no trade interest or if they wanted to allow Keuchel to select his next destination. His opt-out aligns nicely with the trade deadline's conclusion, letting him know which contending teams need rotation help. Besides losing him for nothing, the Twins likely want to avoid seeing him jump to a team like the Guardians, which are in direct competition with Minnesota for the AL Central title.

Which option is the most likely for the Twins and Keuchel? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[jorgenswest]

I have no idea if Keuchel is a playoff caliber capable pitcher. If the Twins believe he is they should keep him. They won’t get a return near that level and they need more playoff caliber pitchers.

Keeping him means that one of the 6 goes to the pen in a high leverage late inning role. Maeda has shown he can be that capable late inning reliever but it has been a few years. Is it a role where Ober or Keuchel could be successful? Ober hasn’t done it but it would reduce an inning count that is already at a career high. Can Keuchel fill the need of a left handed reliever?

While I am not a buyer at the deadline I am also not selling off any playoff caliber pitchers.

[Karbo]

Would he accept a role in the pen? That's the biggest need as I see it right now. IMO, DFA Gallo, add Keuchel to the pen, hopefully Theilbar is ready to add then option Moran to AAA. As far as playoff caliber, I'm more concerned with even making the playoffs at this point. As many people seem to think that's a given, I'm not convinced.

[saviking]

Actually only have one option. Promote him to the bigs or lose him.

[Whitey333]

I'm not convinced they are going to make the playoffs either.  I think they will but playing as mediocre as they have been for the past 2+ years they aren't a playoff calibre team right now.  But someone has to win the division right?  Dallas Kuechel is an interesting situation.  A typical Twins reclamation project hopeful.  He's done his job at AAA.  But that's what it is AAA, not the majors.  His last 4 big league seasons produced ERA over5, then over 7, then over 9 then over 12.  He's only been here since June.  I'd hate to see some misplaced loyalty for Kuechel result in him replacing a starting pitcher who's been here a while. I just don't think there is enough in his big league tank left.  I say trade him for some prospect.  

[David Maro]

Don't think Keuchel will add much with a 88 mph fastball. Had that last year with Bundy. May work for 1 inning,but we are going to get Theilbar back any day now. The pitching has been not good since the break. Ober has now shown he may have hit the wall,and the BP couldn't stop KC from adding on. Why is Rocco so in love with Moran,he has shown nothing for weeks now and is giving runs. At this time this team is in trouble and will be lucky to make playoffs.

[madtowntwin]

The man has one of the "Best Beards" in sports....Option #4 - Trade him to Manscape for cash and a cache of razors. 

[mnfireman]

Send Moran to St. Paul, promote Keuchel. Use him out of the BP on either Sunday or Monday to see what he has against MLB batting. Trade either him or Gray and use the other going forward.

[twinfan]

If we can put a package with or without him to St Louis for Arrenado, that would be the best move the Twins could possibly do right now. If not Arrenado, then Candelario from Washington. I don't really believe that Kuechel is the answer to anything for us. Trading Maeda in a package makes sense as you always trade when a player is doing well to get the best return. Let's see what happens but I want Arrenado- NOW.

[Daniel Anderson]

Looks to me like a few of the starters are wearing down. Maybe plug him in and rotate starters through a tired arm IL stint, starting with Ryan.

[mnfireman]

22 minutes ago, twinfan said:

If we can put a package with or without him to St Louis for Arrenado, that would be the best move the Twins could possibly do right now. If not Arrenado, then Candelario from Washington. I don't really believe that Kuechel is the answer to anything for us. Trading Maeda in a package makes sense as you always trade when a player is doing well to get the best return. Let's see what happens but I want Arrenado- NOW.

Cards are not dealing Arrenado.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/07/mozeliak-cardinals-are-not-trading-nolan-arenado.html

[mikelink45]

39 minutes ago, Daniel Anderson said:

Looks to me like a few of the starters are wearing down. Maybe plug him in and rotate starters through a tired arm IL stint, starting with Ryan.

This was my immediate reaction too.  After a great start to the season by the SP and then the initial spurt after the all-star break it looked like our overused BP was the only problem, but in the last few games we  have seen our SP showing that they might benefit from an extra day of rest.  I would go 6 man until I determined who is set for the last month of the season.  

Ober had his first bad performance, but as we know he has exceeded previous years innings.  Ryan is looking like he might need a little restart and Gray has suddenly become less dependable.  So would it hurt to have Keuchel step in?  

Yes I know Moran can go down and needs a reset too, but who else do we have for the BP?  None of the experiments - Sands, Ortega, Winder have shown that they are the answers and the new acquisition does not give me confidence either. 

But Maeda has been our best SP of late so putting him in the BP does not seem wise to me. 

[JD-TWINS]

He doesn’t need to displace somebody going forward - Option Ryan for 10 days……..he gets a nice break & re-sets………then do the same thing with Ober. If managed properly, they both miss 2 starts.

Gotta try him v. St. Louis or preferably at home in the following series. Soon. This guy has experience and at his age he has “want”!! He doesn’t need $$$.

Can implement the same strategy with Gray &, if needed with López…….he may keep spot starting if he’s effective or he’s released by August 20…….worth a shot!

Maeda’s inning total will be fine with minimal number thrown and a rebuilt arm.

He’s bringing essentially no value in trade until MLB proven again & it’s too late for that in ‘23.

[wabene]

55 minutes ago, Daniel Anderson said:

Looks to me like a few of the starters are wearing down. Maybe plug him in and rotate starters through a tired arm IL stint, starting with Ryan.

Hopefully this is the plan. If you want a strong rotation going forward, this is the best way. They could trade Maeda or Gray and plug in Dallas, but that would just weaken a tiring rotation. I could see that option if the return significantly strengthened another area of the team. 

[roger]

1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

Send Moran to St. Paul, promote Keuchel. Use him out of the BP on either Sunday or Monday to see what he has against MLB batting. Trade either him or Gray and use the other going forward.

Totally agree in sending Moran to St Paul, however, I would bring back Thielbar in his place.  Would add Kuechel as the 13th pitcher and piggy back him with several starters who seem to be wearing down.  Start Ober with the intent of his only going say 2.0 innings.  Then bring in Kuechel for 5 innings.  Do that a couple times and maybe Ober gets back towards what he was.  Then do the same with Ryan or whomever.  Probably only guy who doesn't need less innings is Maeda, who spent so much time on the IL.  When Stewart is ready, replace Winder or whomever is not pitching well at that point.

And hopefully, there is another bullpen decision to make with some type of trade in the next 48 hours.

[darin617]

3 hours ago, David Maro said:

Don't think Keuchel will add much with a 88 mph fastball. Had that last year with Bundy. May work for 1 inning,but we are going to get Theilbar back any day now. The pitching has been not good since the break. Ober has now shown he may have hit the wall,and the BP couldn't stop KC from adding on. Why is Rocco so in love with Moran,he has shown nothing for weeks now and is giving runs. At this time this team is in trouble and will be lucky to make playoffs.

Pitchers don't need to throw 100 mph to get people out. I'm not calling Keuchel the best pitchers ever either.

Go look back at Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine. They never threw hard but knew how to pitch. To be honest, with everyone trying to hit a home run every time coming up all a pitcher needs is the ability to effectively change speeds and have great location with their pitches and these hitters would have no chance.

[Dantes929]

3 hours ago, Daniel Anderson said:

Looks to me like a few of the starters are wearing down. Maybe plug him in and rotate starters through a tired arm IL stint, starting with Ryan.

Yes.  This.   88 mph doesn't seem like a lot but they have identified a minimum velocity in order for him to be effective and he is there or slightly better.    His numbers in the minors certainly justify a shot so this is no charity case.   Might be just the shot in the arm we need.   6th starter or long relief as needed.

[D.C Twins]

3 hours ago, Daniel Anderson said:

Looks to me like a few of the starters are wearing down. Maybe plug him in and rotate starters through a tired arm IL stint, starting with Ryan.

This, this aaaaaaaaand THIS!

[karcherd]

What is this fascination with Keuchel, another washed up veteran pitcher.  So he has some good stats at the AAA level.  Are we just going to ignore what he has done at  the major league level the last three years.  He is just another Bundy, Happ, Shoemaker, Archer reclamation project.  Championship teams try to improve their roster with proven players not reclamation projects that they hope will do something, especially not in August.  The time to try this is in spring training.  If there was a LH prospect with his stuff pitching with his numbers this board would be saying that those numbers would not be sustainable with the Twins.  But yet because it is a name who has had no success in 4 years, we think he can come up here and help win a pennant for us.

[gman]

See what you can in a trade, otherwise bring him up Tuesday to piggy back with the other starters. We don't need to stretch the relief group anymore than it is, so I would have him come in in the 4th inning hopefully pitch 3-4 innings.

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, karcherd said:

What is this fascination with Keuchel, another washed up veteran pitcher.  So he has some good stats at the AAA level.  Are we just going to ignore what he has done at  the major league level the last three years.  He is just another Bundy, Happ, Shoemaker, Archer reclamation project.  Championship teams try to improve their roster with proven players not reclamation projects that they hope will do something, especially not in August.  The time to try this is in spring training.  If there was a LH prospect with his stuff pitching with his numbers this board would be saying that those numbers would not be sustainable with the Twins.  But yet because it is a name who has had no success in 4 years, we think he can come up here and help win a pennant for us.

I wouldn’t call any of the players Atlanta and the Dodgers picked up to be anything great. You add sometimes to get better than what you have..

[PatPfund]

If you can't trade Keuchel, I see no reason not to bring him up and give a couple starts. If it works, great (and keep rolling with it), if not at least you've given some our starters extra rest. The team turned him into an asset, and they should use him one way or another.

[JD-TWINS]

7 hours ago, wabene said:

Hopefully this is the plan. If you want a strong rotation going forward, this is the best way. They could trade Maeda or Gray and plug in Dallas, but that would just weaken a tiring rotation. I could see that option if the return significantly strengthened another area of the team. 

Can’t strengthen our team solely with a 33 or 35 year old rental trade ……..actually, due to the rental status, age doesn’t matter to other teams - may be a benefit.

HIGH risk turning to Kuechel without a back-up…….w/o trading guys we have a back-up & potentially, he provides necessary rest for 4 guys.

All we would get is for future benefit. IMO we don’t need to risk wins over the next couple months for future benefit.

[karcherd]

3 hours ago, old nurse said:

I wouldn’t call any of the players Atlanta and the Dodgers picked up to be anything great. You add sometimes to get better than what you have..

The Dodgers picked up players who at least have been in the majors this year and have had some measure of recent success.  So what is the difference, Keuchel wasn't even signed to a minor league until June, he had an opt out clause in July and chose not to take it.  Why didn't he take the opt out because teams were not calling his agent saying hey come pitch for us.  He also has no success for 4 years.  Big difference in the caliber of players.

 

[D.C Twins]

7 hours ago, karcherd said:

What is this fascination with Keuchel, another washed up veteran pitcher.  So he has some good stats at the AAA level.  Are we just going to ignore what he has done at  the major league level the last three years.  He is just another Bundy, Happ, Shoemaker, Archer reclamation project.  Championship teams try to improve their roster with proven players not reclamation projects that they hope will do something, especially not in August.  The time to try this is in spring training.  If there was a LH prospect with his stuff pitching with his numbers this board would be saying that those numbers would not be sustainable with the Twins.  But yet because it is a name who has had no success in 4 years, we think he can come up here and help win a pennant for us.

You could very well be right... but I think there is minimal risk to call him up and see how his current 'stuff' plays at the MLB level.

I do think our rotation will need more rest coming down the home stretch in some form or fashion (Ober and Ryan especially)