Twins 5, White Sox 4: Twins Rally to Stun and Sweep the White Sox

[Riverbrian]

10 hours ago, davidborton said:

I respectfully disagree.

Maybe Baldelli is playing chess. I will play checkers and have the manager say, "Let's see -- I have a young developing player, Wallner. He is 2-2 today. It's important to show the young man that I have confidence in him. Not going to have a .215 catcher hit for him."

This kind of demonstration of belief in a person is part of the game. It's a long view in developing a ballclub. Pulling Wallner was a resounding, "I don't trust you." Very wrong message, IMHO.

I agree with ya. 

WIth the long view in my mind. Young left handed batters need exposure to left handed pitchers because what exactly are you developing if you don't. 

If they don't get that exposure.

1. You need to pinch hit Vazquez for them. Rocco has no choice but to pinch hit Vazquez. 

He has been keeping our left handed hitters from left handed pitchers all year long. Vazquez has been getting exposure to left handed hitters all along. 

Matt Wallner has 3 AB's vs LH. 

Julien has 21 AB's vs LH.

Rocco is going to Vazquez because he hasn't been preparing them for these moments. 

2. Occasionally, you will get painted into a corner late in the game. There are only 4 bench moves, When pink eye strikes there may only be two bench moves available. Sometimes Vazquez isn't available to pinch hit when the opposing manager brings in a LHP late in the game.

Instead of letting your young left handed hitting getting a look at left handed pitching in the early innings... you starve them of the opportunity. Then you need them late in the game when the game is on the line!

IMO this is backwards... they should get looks at left handed pitching early in the game when there is plenty of game left to go... instead of getting a look they don't normally get... with the game on the line. 

3. Occasionally... injuries will get you painted into a corner late in the season. With the importance of September games during a pennant chase and the obvious importance of the playoffs to follow. Injuries to your right handed hitters will force you consistently start your left handed hitter against left handed starters in the playoffs or with playoffs on the line. Hey... haven't let you face left handers all year... but... I guess I need you now my right handed guy is unavailable.    

4. I'd rather that they develop players like Julien. Kirilloff and Wallner into something more than Joc Pederson. 

Anyway... Rocco was going to pinch hit Vazquez. He has been starving left handed batters consistently.

Game on the line, season on the line is an unfortunate time to change that approach. 

 

[Karbo]

12 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Rocco made a lot of pretty good moves and handled the bullpen expertly. I don't think Baldelli is an expert tactician, but he isn't among the worst at handling his personnel IMHO.

He has improved, but maybe that says more to the Twins bench this year.

[Peter]

What a comeback!!! Down 3-0 in 9th then get 3 in bottom of inning to tie it up then win in 12th !!! This is huge huge huge massive massive massive win!!! 3 game lead in division-

[Ghost of Kirby Puckett]

11 hours ago, Brandon said:

Especially since we have so many more games against opponents with losing records over the ones with a winning record.  We have one of the easiest schedules for the 2nd half which should help us in the standings.  Because of the ease I would be surprised if we couldn’t go 35-26 to close out the season putting us at 88 wins on the season.  

I'm going big, 39-21. Twins make three big trades for Royce Lewis, Caleb and Brock, to fill the three biggest needs on the team. RH bat, check. Solid lefty bp arm, check. Flame throwing righty bp arm, check. Also, Keith Law put out his new top 60. Three twins in the top 25. Lee, ERod and Jenkins. 

[Old Twins Hat]

I was at the game.  Body language on the Pale Hose, Anderson, Graveman, Robert, just terrible.

If those guys were on my team, I would just give up already.  No life in them.  At all.

The ball Wallner hit off the right field wall, that was a bullet.  Haven't seen a ball hit like that since Cruz was on the team.

Terrible base-running by Wallner though.  He's fast enough, just way too conservative.  He and Gallo should spend more time together.  You put saddles on those two guys, they could carry the team.

[mikelink45]

My first reflection is on the WPA ratings.  Gallo third???  He is a ghost runner and not a good one.  He comes home when the inept White Sox fielder falls down.  

Now I have to say that the White Sox should have taught the Twins a strong lesson - their defense and overall play is like watching the Keystone Kops (I know I am dating myself) or the three stooges.  They basically played themselves into a loss and that includes their BP.

Good for Jeffers.

But I thought Rocco was overthinking in the last innings (thanks for saving him Sox).  Vasquez for Wallner who was 2/2 with a walk and HBP?  Gallo in as ghost runner meaning he had to stay in with his 179 BA.   This meant no bench left.  Lucky we won as we did.

But we did win and it feels like the Twins are about to take off!  I know, weak competition, but just keep beating them. 

[JD-TWINS]

11 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

He was pretty significant in yesterday’s win.

& I think Rocco was riding that vibe but he killed the momentum…..I understand it can happen to anyone but reality is, after Saturday’s success, his % to succeed again was pretty slim.

[Linus]

I know this will be an unpopular opinion as he is everyone s darling but Julien is flailing the last couple of days. He’s always had plenty of swing and miss in his game and it’s showing up now. Hopefully temporary. 

[USAFChief]

21 minutes ago, Linus said:

I know this will be an unpopular opinion as he is everyone s darling but Julien is flailing the last couple of days. He’s always had plenty of swing and miss in his game and it’s showing up now. Hopefully temporary. 

Can't speak for others, but as for me I know I was expecting 3 hits and a walk every single game. 

[DJL44]

38 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

My first reflection is on the WPA ratings.  Gallo third???  He is a ghost runner and not a good one.  He comes home when the inept White Sox fielder falls down.

I think WPA gives him credit for getting to 2B.

[wabene]

42 minutes ago, Linus said:

I know this will be an unpopular opinion as he is everyone s darling but Julien is flailing the last couple of days. He’s always had plenty of swing and miss in his game and it’s showing up now. Hopefully temporary. 

Yes he has scuffled the last 2 games with 6 strikeouts and an 0 fer Saturday. He did show some life Sunday with a walk and a hit late. I think they were working him in with breaking balls, hopefully he'll adjust. 

[saviking]

15 hours ago, USAFChief said:

GREAT WIN!!

 

I must say, I was originally going to blister Rocco for PHing Vazquez, but upon thinking about it, I give Rocco props for thinking 2 innings ahead. 

"We will have a bases loaded, no out situation in the 12th. We can't do **** with the bases loaded. I need Vazquez to, uh, UNload 'em. 2 on, 2 out? Much better. Jeffers will single, bingo bango bongo, adios Chicago, walk off here we come, off to a nice Sunday night dinner, bring on the Mariners."

Rocco's playing 3d chess, while I'm playing checkers.

 

You beat me to it and with first class sarcasm to book. I was dumbfounded when he pulled Wallner for Vasquez. Not that Wallner deserved to bat as he had only been on base all four times up. Maybe coach was playing the old, regression to the mean theory. On base four times in a row how could he possibly make it 5. 

I get it, left handed pitcher and Wallner bats left. We're much better off putting in an inferior hitter that is so slow he clogs up the bases. And our only back up catcher too boot but no way our starting catcher takes a ball to the adam's apple with a chance of being removed from the game and the Twins having to decide who will play catcher and what outfield position a pitchers can play because you sure can't put the pitcher at first and Vazquez in the outfield.

Batting right handed against a left handed pitcher should not trump everything ..  

[wabene]

Wallner has a track record of hitting either handed pitcher similarly in the minors. In a very small sample he has a 293 OPS in the bigs. 

[GNess]

1 hour ago, Ghost of Kirby Puckett said:

I'm going big, 39-21. Twins make three big trades for Royce Lewis, Caleb and Brock, to fill the three biggest needs on the team. RH bat, check. Solid lefty bp arm, check. Flame throwing righty bp arm, check. Also, Keith Law put out his new top 60. Three twins in the top 25. Lee, ERod and Jenkins. 

Notable on the schedule: final nine games 3 at home vs Angels, 3 at home vs. the A's and 3 in Colorado vs the Rockies. There are no locks in baseball, but if the Twins lead the division when they get to the final nine you have to love their chances. (At least on paper.)

[IndianaTwin]

15 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Odd, Larnach pulled after 1 AB tonight with St. Paul. Would he now be coming up with Gallo going on the IL? Probably not but odd.........  The other bad news is that he has been mostly dreadful with the Saints for a month after posting great early numbers there.

Correlation doesn't equal causation, but it's been reported that Larnach will be activated on Monday, with Buxton to the paternity list. Perhaps the Twins got word the birth was impending. 

[insagt1]

Doesn't happen very much that a team that has been shut out for 8 innings and trailing by more than 1 run, scores enough in the 9th to tie it up. I'm thinking the pre-ASG Twins probably would have hung their heads and accepted defeat. Winning begets winning. Also Sox probably had to feel good getting that sacks loaded no outs DP, so Jeffers GWH was even sweeter.

Most of us here have screamed for Pagan to get unloaded this season. But he has really pitched well lately. Almost effectively. In tough situations. Wow. The planets have re-aligned

[mikelink45]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I think WPA gives him credit for getting to 2B.

As a ghost runner?  That is some accomplishment

 

[Nine of twelve]

Comment on Gallo pinch running for Solano in the 10th. Even though I have never thought of Gallo as a particularly fast runner I suspect Solano is slower. But beyond that base running is about more than just speed. For example, Tom Kelly has said that Kent Hrbek was a good base runner because he had good baseball instincts and was a good judge of his own speed. Gallo scoring on the sac fly in the 10th inning is a play that some players don't make. He knew he needed to go all out from the base when the ball was caught just in case something weird happened and as a result he was in position to score.

[Steven Trefz]

10 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

As a ghost runner?  That is some accomplishment

 

That was my thought too, that we found a glitch in the statistical matrix with extra inning rule changes. If Kirilloff can't get above that with the game saving hit in the 9th, then the stat loses its "stat-ness" for me.

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, Steven Trefz said:

That was my thought too, that we found a glitch in the statistical matrix with extra inning rule changes. If Kirilloff can't get above that with the game saving hit in the 9th, then the stat loses its "stat-ness" for me.

The fact that WPA completely ignores defensive contributions makes it useless for me. It tells the story of game events but it is terrible at assigning value to players.

[Ghost of Kirby Puckett]

3 hours ago, Linus said:

I know this will be an unpopular opinion as he is everyone s darling but Julien is flailing the last couple of days. He’s always had plenty of swing and miss in his game and it’s showing up now. Hopefully temporary. 

Ill personally be going with the previous 5 years dating back to his college days vs 2 games.

[IaBeanCounter]

1 hour ago, Nine of twelve said:

Comment on Gallo pinch running for Solano in the 10th. Even though I have never thought of Gallo as a particularly fast runner I suspect Solano is slower. But beyond that base running is about more than just speed. For example, Tom Kelly has said that Kent Hrbek was a good base runner because he had good baseball instincts and was a good judge of his own speed. Gallo scoring on the sac fly in the 10th inning is a play that some players don't make. He knew he needed to go all out from the base when the ball was caught just in case something weird happened and as a result he was in position to score.

Gallo has a sprint speed of 26.7 ft/sec. and Solano is 25.4.  Over 90 ft that's about .2 seconds.  I doubt Solana would have even tried to score on that play.

[Brandon]

8 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I agree with ya. 

WIth the long view in my mind. Young left handed batters need exposure to left handed pitchers because what exactly are you developing if you don't. 

If they don't get that exposure.

1. You need to pinch hit Vazquez for them. Rocco has no choice but to pinch hit Vazquez. 

He has been keeping our left handed hitters from left handed pitchers all year long. Vazquez has been getting exposure to left handed hitters all along. 

Matt Wallner has 3 AB's vs LH. 

Julien has 21 AB's vs LH.

Rocco is going to Vazquez because he hasn't been preparing them for these moments. 

2. Occasionally, you will get painted into a corner late in the game. There are only 4 bench moves, When pink eye strikes there may only be two bench moves available. Sometimes Vazquez isn't available to pinch hit when the opposing manager brings in a LHP late in the game.

Instead of letting your young left handed hitting getting a look at left handed pitching in the early innings... you starve them of the opportunity. Then you need them late in the game when the game is on the line!

IMO this is backwards... they should get looks at left handed pitching early in the game when there is plenty of game left to go... instead of getting a look they don't normally get... with the game on the line. 

3. Occasionally... injuries will get you painted into a corner late in the season. With the importance of September games during a pennant chase and the obvious importance of the playoffs to follow. Injuries to your right handed hitters will force you consistently start your left handed hitter against left handed starters in the playoffs or with playoffs on the line. Hey... haven't let you face left handers all year... but... I guess I need you now my right handed guy is unavailable.    

4. I'd rather that they develop players like Julien. Kirilloff and Wallner into something more than Joc Pederson. 

Anyway... Rocco was going to pinch hit Vazquez. He has been starving left handed batters consistently.

Game on the line, season on the line is an unfortunate time to change that approach. 

 

I agree with this, though I do understand the importance of going for the win and substituting players just not all the time.  

[Nine of twelve]

34 minutes ago, Brandon said:

I agree with this, though I do understand the importance of going for the win and substituting players just not all the time.  

So in other words, a manager should make only the right moves and never the wrong moves.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

I agree with this, though I do understand the importance of going for the win and substituting players just not all the time.  

I'm not anti-platoon... I always feel that I have to put that disclaimer out there. 

The strict adherence to it is what I'm against. 

Look at the splits of Arraez this year and last year. 

Rocco would sit Arraez against left handers quite a bit last year and his splits in 2022 suggested that it made sense. 

This year... the Marlins are letting him hit both sides and his splits are not split... he is hitting both hands with equal ability.  

Look at the splits of Ryan Jeffers this year and last year. 

In 2022... Splits indicated that Jeffers shouldn't face right handed hitters. This year is splits are reversed. He's hitting right handers and not hitting left handers. 

I guess... I'm saying that sometimes the monster is of your own creation. 

If he is going to continue to strictly adhere to right/lefty matchups... He leaves himself no choice but to turn to Vazquez late in the game and Vazquez could end up playing 1B in extra innings as a result. 

[stringer bell]

55 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm not anti-platoon... I always feel that I have to put that disclaimer out there. 

The strict adherence to it is what I'm against. 

Look at the splits of Arraez this year and last year. 

Rocco would sit Arraez against left handers quite a bit last year and his splits in 2022 suggested that it made sense. 

This year... the Marlins are letting him hit both sides and his splits are not split... he is hitting both hands with equal ability.  

Look at the splits of Ryan Jeffers this year and last year. 

In 2022... Splits indicated that Jeffers shouldn't face right handed hitters. This year is splits are reversed. He's hitting right handers and not hitting left handers. 

I guess... I'm saying that sometimes the monster is of your own creation. 

If he is going to continue to strictly adhere to right/lefty matchups... He leaves himself no choice but to turn to Vazquez late in the game and Vazquez could end up playing 1B in extra innings as a result. 

Arraez has 323 PAs against RH pitching and 81 against RH pitching. I would say that the Marlins are playing him less against lefties. Last year, Arraez had 479 PAs vs. RH pitching and 124 against lefties, almost exactly the same proportion. 

[stringer bell]

56 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm not anti-platoon... I always feel that I have to put that disclaimer out there. 

The strict adherence to it is what I'm against. 

Look at the splits of Arraez this year and last year. 

Rocco would sit Arraez against left handers quite a bit last year and his splits in 2022 suggested that it made sense. 

This year... the Marlins are letting him hit both sides and his splits are not split... he is hitting both hands with equal ability.  

Look at the splits of Ryan Jeffers this year and last year. 

In 2022... Splits indicated that Jeffers shouldn't face right handed hitters. This year is splits are reversed. He's hitting right handers and not hitting left handers. 

I guess... I'm saying that sometimes the monster is of your own creation. 

If he is going to continue to strictly adhere to right/lefty matchups... He leaves himself no choice but to turn to Vazquez late in the game and Vazquez could end up playing 1B in extra innings as a result. 

I am not saying that you are wrong by any means. I don't think certain players should be strictly platooned (Kirilloff) despite some struggles. Julien should probably eventually be in the same category. Getting somebody like Farmer who has quite a history of a large platoon split and who is a good defender is a worthwhile move. Hurting the defense while having a marginal upgrade isn't worth it. 

[Riverbrian]

46 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Arraez has 323 PAs against RH pitching and 81 against RH pitching. I would say that the Marlins are playing him less against lefties. Last year, Arraez had 479 PAs vs. RH pitching and 124 against lefties, almost exactly the same proportion. 

Arraez has played in 95 out of 101 games for Marlins. He played in 144 games for the Twins out of 162. Yeah... the percentages are similar but also consider that Arraez was healthy amongst a team full of unhealthy players in 2022. Arraez bounced around DH, 1B and 2B and we didn't have 3 healthy players for those positions at the same time during the season so there was no competition for his playing time.

Next compare left handed AB's against his teammates. 

In 2023... Arraez is 2nd in AB's vs Lefthanders for the Marlins. Only Bryan De La Cruz has more AB's vs Lefties. 

De La Cruz 81

Arraez 75

In 2022... Arraez was 5th in AB's vs lefthanders. for the Twins. 

Urshela led the way with 148, Followed by Correa, Polanco and Miranda. 

Arraez 113

Celestino had 108 AB's vs left handers last year. 

With our injuries last year... the proportion should be slanted in the Twins favor. 

 

 

 

[stringer bell]

5 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Arraez has played in 95 out of 101 games for Marlins. He played in 144 games for the Twins out of 162. Yeah... the percentages are similar but also consider that Arraez was healthy amongst a team full of unhealthy players in 2022. Arraez bounced around DH, 1B and 2B and we didn't have 3 healthy players for those positions at the same time during the season so there was no competition for his playing time.

Next compare left handed AB's against his teammates. 

In 2023... Arraez is 2nd in AB's vs Lefthanders for the Marlins. Only Bryan De La Cruz has more AB's vs Lefties. 

De La Cruz 81

Arraez 75

In 2022... Arraez was 5th in AB's vs lefthanders. for the Twins. 

Urshela led the way with 148, Followed by Correa, Polanco and Miranda. 

Arraez 113

Celestino had 108 AB's vs left handers last year. 

With our injuries last year... the proportion should be slanted in the Twins favor. 

 

 

 

I'd argue that Arraez was not healthy the last quarter of the season and that Rocco "rested" him against lefties, which would be when to rest him. I guess you'd have to go game to game to see how strict of a platoon situation he was in. Splits vary from year to year. For whatever reason, Max Kepler has had one season only where he was decent against lefties and in fact his OPS in 2019 (his career year) was better against left handers than righties.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

I'd argue that Arraez was not healthy the last quarter of the season and that Rocco "rested" him against lefties, which would be when to rest him. I guess you'd have to go game to game to see how strict of a platoon situation he was in. Splits vary from year to year. For whatever reason, Max Kepler has had one season only where he was decent against lefties and in fact his OPS in 2019 (his career year) was better against left handers than righties.

Luis made 129 starts for the Twins in 2022 out of 162 games.

1B 60

DH 34

2B 31

3B 4

He played in 144 games total which means 15 of them he entered off the bench. Eyeballing his 2022 game log... I count 14 games where he received 2 or less AB's so that adds up. 

I can't speak about the nagging unreported health of Arraez in 2022.

According to what was reported.

He missed 5 games from May 5th to May 11th due to Covid.

He missed a game June 8th for something undisclosed against the Yankees... Cortes just happened to start that game for the Yanks.  

And he missed a couple of games at the end of the year (Oct. 2,3) for a hamstring issue. 

With the Marlins thus far. 

He has started 91 games out of 100. 

2B 88

1B 2

DH 1 

He has played in 95 so he has entered 4 games off the bench. 

Could be injury... Could be Rocco but there was a difference in comparison.