3 Twins Development Success Stories

[Cody Christie]

Fans can focus on prospects that never reach their full potential, but that doesn't always paint a complete picture of an organization's development process. Here are three development success stories from players that will impact the Twins in 2023.

Image courtesy of Dave Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

Few players follow a linear path to becoming a big-league regular. Multiple obstacles can hinder a player's development, and every team is still dealing with a lost minor-league season in 2020. Some players might never reach their full potential because of the development lost during the pandemic. However, the Twins have seen three players develop into regular pieces of the big-league roster after the pandemic. 

Nick Gordon, UTL
Gordon was a top-five pick in the 2014 MLB Draft, so some might not call him a development success story because teams expect high draft picks to produce. However, there were points when Gordon's future looked bleak. The Twins added him to the 40-man roster leading into the 2019 season, but that was coming off a season where he posted a .653 OPS between Double-A and Triple-A. Gordon was limited to 70 games in 2019 and saw a power surge at Triple-A with 36 extra-base hits and a .801 OPS. 

The 2020 season was supposed to be the year Gordon made his big-league debut. Instead, he dealt with a bad case of COVID and gastritis, which caused him to drop weight. Gordon couldn't even train at the team's alternate site because he was attempting to get healthy. Over the next two seasons, there were points where the Twins were likely close to removing Gordon from the 40-man roster. He was entering his mid-20s, and the previous regime drafted him, so this front office didn't have any allegiance to him. It was a low point in his career. 

Injuries kept the Twins from winning the AL Central in 2022 but also offered Gordon an opportunity to become a regular player. Finally healthy, he posted a 113 OPS+ with 28 doubles, four triples, and nine home runs in 136 games. He showed the ability to play multiple defensive positions, and there may be even more power in his swing. Gordon worked closely with first-year hitting coach David Popkins to combine data and mechanical tweaks to increase his power numbers. Gordon posted a .865 OPS with five home runs and 13 doubles from August 4-September 20, 2022. If Gordon can harness that power, he will be a critical piece to the Twins line-up for years. 

Bailey Ober, SP
For various reasons, Ober has been a unicorn throughout his professional career. The Twins drafted him with the 346th overall pick in the 2017 MLB Draft, so expectations have been relatively low. He's listed at 6-foot-9 and was previously considered a soft-tosser because his fastball sat in the upper-80s. Radar readings have never told Ober's entire story. He is so tall that he releases the ball closer to the plate, which causes some deception for the batter. Ober has a solid four-pitch mix, but everything works off his fastball. 

Last season, Ober threw his fastball less often (down 9% from 2021) and saw increased use of his slider. His fastball averaged 91.5 MPH, and batters posted a .433 SLG versus the pitch. His slider resulted in 25 strikeouts and a .261 SLG in 69 at-bats. Ober was limited to 11 starts in 2022 because of a groin injury that kept him out of the big leagues from June 1 to September 16. He ended the year with five solid September starts, and the Twins hope he can build off of that in 2023. 

Many Twins pitchers have been touting high velocities this spring, but Ober's increased fastball velocity is intriguing. So far in spring training, he is averaging over 93 MPH with his four-seamer. This velocity jump will play even better with his length because he releases the ball closer to the plate than other pitchers. Adding velocity (via release extension and/or refining mechanics) is one skill set the Twins have shown the ability to help their pitching prospects to improve their overall pitch quality. Ober's performance has been so good the Twins are considering opening the season with a six-man rotation. He might be one of the team's biggest x-factors if he can stay healthy.  

Griffin Jax, RP
The Twins selected Jax in the third round of the 2016 MLB Draft out of the United States Air Force Academy. As a higher draft pick, Minnesota likely hoped Jax would develop into a starting pitcher, and that's how he was used throughout his minor-league career. In 2019, he made 23 starts (127 1/3 innings) between Double- and Triple-A with a 2.90 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 94-to-27 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He may have been able to break into the big leagues in 2020, but the shortened season didn't allow that to happen. 

Jax debuted during the 2021 season but struggled to put it all together as a starter. In 18 games (14 starts), he posted a 6.37 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP. He allowed too many home runs (2.5 HR/9) and did not strike out enough batters (7.1 K/9). His strikeout rate had been low throughout his professional career, which is one reason the Twins decided it was time to try him in the bullpen. 

Entering last season, he had only made ten professional appearances as a reliever. The Twins had a clear message for Jax in his transition: to increase his slider usage by over 15%. His fastball and slider velocity increased by roughly three miles per hour for 2022, and he has been showcasing even higher velocities this spring. Finding dominant late-inning relievers is challenging for a team, making Jax a success story. 

Who will be the next development success stories in the Twins organization? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[Doctor Gast]

Thanks Cody. Always like a success story, these three are very enjoyable.

[Karbo]

Ober has been pitching 2 innings at time this spring with excellent results. Move him to the pen!

[Rosterman]

Ober could actually work out well as the long-man out of the pen, especially if he could pitch 2-3 innings with limited rest between appearances. He also could be a change of pace depending on who he follows on the mound.

You would hope you could push him towards 100 innings at the least in 2023. And that is entirely possibly if you use him well over the whole season, which would not diminish his potential to be a back-of-the-rotation arm. Plus, being the long guy could also means that he gets the spot start jobs or is the replacement starter (if you don't need to bring up someone like Woods Richardson or Var-30 starts for the others with mixed inning totals (how many 4-5 inning starts vs. 5+ innings). 28land dazzling at AAA). As that guy who would pitch the second game of a double-header, you could then bring up someone just for the relief role for the extra roster spot.

Yes, six starters. You hope to get 30-32 out of a couple of the Twins guys (Ryan, Gray). You could live with 26-28 starts for the others as they build up innings. And Ober you do wish to keep in the mix if Gray, Maeda and Mahle walk for 2024 (or it allows you to dangle one of the impedning free agents as tade bait).

But do you still keep 8 guys in the pen (and does MLB allow you to do so). Thus leaving your bench/DH as Taylor, Jeffers, Gordon, Farmer and no Solarno. Do the Twins have a 7-man pen to pitch 3-4 innings a night?

 

[TwinsDr2021]

I like all these guys and for each one personally it has to be a success stories, but man it is really stretching it to consider any of these real development success stories. Jax has 18 career holds 1 save and 6 blown saves, Ober has fought injuries and might even start the year in the majors, and Gordon is a good utility player and if he had any options might be one of the first guys demoted if he was struggling.

I am cheering for all 3 to one day become development success stories!

[Linus]

I would say Spencer Steer. No expectations but turns out to be a good trade chip. 

[roger]

As Gordon seemed to struggle year after year in the minors, mostly due to injury, he became an afterthought for me.  Certainly was surprised last year when he announced he belonged in the big leagues.  Expect he will be a valuable part of the Twins for several years to come.  Great having guys that are solid at more than one or two positions.

Huge fan of Ober and expect he will not be the sixth best starter come opening day, especially if his heater stays at 93.  Don't have a clue how they are going to handle that.  Should be interesting watching this staff.

Have also been a Jax fan since drafted.  Someone going thru any of the service academies is better prepared for life than most of us.  Having a pitcher on the mound who has trained for combat, I have always expected the results would come and expect he will take another step forward in 2023.

[Bodie]

1 hour ago, Rosterman said:

Ober could actually work out well as the long-man out of the pen, especially if he could pitch 2-3 innings with limited rest between appearances. He also could be a change of pace depending on who he follows on the mound.

You would hope you could push him towards 100 innings at the least in 2023. And that is entirely possibly if you use him well over the whole season, which would not diminish his potential to be a back-of-the-rotation arm. Plus, being the long guy could also means that he gets the spot start jobs or is the replacement starter (if you don't need to bring up someone like Woods Richardson or Var-30 starts for the others with mixed inning totals (how many 4-5 inning starts vs. 5+ innings). 28land dazzling at AAA). As that guy who would pitch the second game of a double-header, you could then bring up someone just for the relief role for the extra roster spot.

Yes, six starters. You hope to get 30-32 out of a couple of the Twins guys (Ryan, Gray). You could live with 26-28 starts for the others as they build up innings. And Ober you do wish to keep in the mix if Gray, Maeda and Mahle walk for 2024 (or it allows you to dangle one of the impedning free agents as tade bait).

But do you still keep 8 guys in the pen (and does MLB allow you to do so). Thus leaving your bench/DH as Taylor, Jeffers, Gordon, Farmer and no Solarno. Do the Twins have a 7-man pen to pitch 3-4 innings a night?

 

To answer your final question, NO!  No one has (and possibly no one has ever had) a bullpen that can stand up to Rocco's bullpen use (or abuse).  

The way to use that "6th starter" is to put him in the bullpen and use him 2-3 (even4+ on occasion) regularly.  Keep an eye on the days you use him, as I can see (especially early on) Kenta Maeda needing a day or two extra between starts,if not actually skipping a start as he makes his return from his Tommy John+ surgery(s).  

Ober can help the Twins this way (as opposed to the Saints) and still get significant innings to build up his arm strength for future as a starter.

[Nine of twelve]

What I would like to see is to have two or three major league success stories like these every year.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Bodie said:

To answer your final question, NO!  No one has (and possibly no one has ever had) a bullpen that can stand up to Rocco's bullpen use (or abuse).  

Man, I'd hate to see what your thoughts are on the Rays, Angels, Orioles, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Pirates, Tigers, Giants, Rangers, Padres, and Brewers bullpen usage. Those 11 teams have all used their relievers more since Rocco took over than Rocco has.

As for the topic of developmental success stories, these are some nice success stories, but they need to start producing more high level guys. They could have many more names on a list like this if their young guys could stay healthy. They've actually been above average at turning drafted players into major leaguers, but their next step is to start kicking out some stars. Producing major league talent regularly is an absolute must, but to really contend for championships some of those players need to be stars. They haven't figured that out yet. Keep doing what they're doing, but get some Lewis, Lee, Larnach, Kirilloff, Miranda types to become stars. That's what's needed next.

[Beast]

I’m not sure a top 5 overall draft pick with MLB bloodlines turning into a league average bench outfielder at age 27 is a success story.

Ober I could get on board with if he wasn’t hurt all the time.  He’s thrown a total of 361 innings since 2017, an average of 72 innings per year.

I also have a hard time calling a middle reliever with a negative career WAR a resounding developmental success.  He was drafted in the 3rd round, was fairly highly touted, etc.  I think you need a bit more there to call it highly successful.

I wouldn’t call them failures, and they could make further progress.  But, we’ve set the threshold pretty low on this one.

[HerbieFan]

Griffin Jax really is a great story.  Calling my shot....Cole Sands or Josh Winder are the next BP arm they develop

[mikelink45]

Right now our success stories are Duran, Miranda, and Gordon in that order.  I wish Ober was, but let's get in a full season and Jax is a filler at this point and I hope he improves again.

[AlGoreRythm]

12 hours ago, Rosterman said:

Yes, six starters...

But do you still keep 8 guys in the pen (and does MLB allow you to do so).

 

If you have 6 starters you can't have 8 relievers due to the 13 pitcher limit.

[Major League Ready]

11 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Right now our success stories are Duran, Miranda, and Gordon in that order.  I wish Ober was, but let's get in a full season and Jax is a filler at this point and I hope he improves again.

Have to agree that any discussion of success in these terms should start with Miranda and Duran.  Nick Gordon was an average player last year.  I would not really call that a success or a failure from a #5 overall pick.  The good news is he has a shot at becoming a better story now that he is healthy.  I am more inclined to call Ober a success story given his draft position.  Ober and Jax are still so early in their careers that their relative success is yet to be determined.  Let's hope they take the next step this year.  While we are hoping, let's hope to add Lewis / Julien / Varland, SWR and Moran to this list next year.  

[Trov]

I would less say Gordon was a development success story.  To me the 5th overall pick should be expected to make majors and contribute and not need a ton of development to be a success.  Yes, he was slower to develop and would have issues with health and learning at each level, but to me a development success story is taking a guy no one expects much from, and turning them into a major league level player. 

[tcttejtf]

It seems to me that players develop at different rates. Sandy Koufax pitched five nondescript years with the Dodgers before becoming an all-star. Happily for the Dodgers they didn't give up on him. Nelson Cruz was also a late bloomer. It is often a marathon and not a foot race.

[Tyler from Oregon]

I've been so impressed with all three of these guys. Of all the success stories out there, I'm so blown away by what Nick Gordon has achieved. Dude was close to falling out of baseball relevancy entirely, and now he's agreed upon as one of the most consistently solid players on the team. Pretty dang cool to see.

[TwinsDr2021]

22 minutes ago, tcttejtf said:

It seems to me that players develop at different rates. Sandy Koufax pitched five nondescript years with the Dodgers before becoming an all-star. Happily for the Dodgers they didn't give up on him. Nelson Cruz was also a late bloomer. It is often a marathon and not a foot race.

Koufax was pitching in the majors at age 19, and for 5 years pitched half of his games out of the pen, Nelson Cruz in 2004 as a 23 year old hit 42 doubles,26 homers and batted .326 at 3 levels, in 2005 he hit 32 doubles, 27 homers and batted .290 and was in the majors. He didn't get to the minors until he was 20 (not sure why) it took him getting traded twice  to be given a chance and a couple of years later was hitting 30 homers a year. You can find players that develop into really good players in their mid 20's and later but they are the exception to the rule and the majority of those players don't turn into all star MVP/CY type of players. The end up as bullpen pieces and utility guys. I like Gordon and besides screaming to trade him 4 years ago I cheer for him but the overwhelming odds say he will never be much more than what he is and teams need this type of player to fill out their roster. You can hope for him to become a solid everyday player but expecting him or players like him to is just asking to be let down.

[Cody Christie]

On 3/15/2023 at 11:43 AM, Karbo said:

Ober has been pitching 2 innings at time this spring with excellent results. Move him to the pen!

I don't think they want Ober to pitch out of the bullpen. He's been successful as a starter and they want to keep him in that role. Ober has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter for multiple seasons which provides tremendous value. 

[AlGoreRythm]

9 hours ago, tcttejtf said:

It seems to me that players develop at different rates. Sandy Koufax pitched five nondescript years with the Dodgers before becoming an all-star. Happily for the Dodgers they didn't give up on him. Nelson Cruz was also a late bloomer. It is often a marathon and not a foot race.

Marathons are very long foot races😉

Joking aside, I take your point and have to agree.

[Karbo]

13 hours ago, Cody Christie said:

I don't think they want Ober to pitch out of the bullpen. He's been successful as a starter and they want to keep him in that role. Ober has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter for multiple seasons which provides tremendous value. 

If he can stay healthy, which has been a problem in his short career.

[Fatbat]

On 3/15/2023 at 2:47 PM, chpettit19 said:

Man, I'd hate to see what your thoughts are on the Rays, Angels, Orioles, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Pirates, Tigers, Giants, Rangers, Padres, and Brewers bullpen usage. Those 11 teams have all used their relievers more since Rocco took over than Rocco has.

As for the topic of developmental success stories, these are some nice success stories, but they need to start producing more high level guys. They could have many more names on a list like this if their young guys could stay healthy. They've actually been above average at turning drafted players into major leaguers, but their next step is to start kicking out some stars. Producing major league talent regularly is an absolute must, but to really contend for championships some of those players need to be stars. They haven't figured that out yet. Keep doing what they're doing, but get some Lewis, Lee, Larnach, Kirilloff, Miranda types to become stars. That's what's needed next.

and develop a #1 ace SP like say the next Frank Viola aka Connor Priellip.