Big Questions on a Pair of Relievers

[Cody Pirkl]

Blayne Enlow and Cody Stashak are separated by five years of age and 72 MLB innings, with Enlow having yet to debut. Despite their stark differences, they both find themselves on the 40-man bubble this winter. What might the future hold for these two wild card bullpen options for 2023?

Image courtesy of Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins have a returning base for their bullpen in theory, though it could be argued that one more dependable arm would be a good addition. Still, this year we saw how important it is for the fringes of your bullpen to have depth and talent in addition to the back end. For that reason, the Twins have some difficult decisions to make on a pair of relievers already holding 40-man spots this winter who are far from sure things.

Cody Stashak
Stashak at his best is the perfect reliever to occupy the fringes of a good team’s bullpen. His low velocity, two-pitch mix has been plenty effective with a career 27.6% K-rate and 4.7% walk rate. He established himself enough in both 2019 and 2020 to make appearances in the postseason. For a reliever that seems to have endeared himself to the Twins in his career, why does he find himself on the bubble?

We haven’t heard Stashak’s name in a long time, as he was shut down after just 16 1/3 innings this year with shoulder issues that turned out to be a torn labrum. Pitchers do make their returns from such an injury, but with the question marks the recovery process raises, 28-year-old Stashak is far from a sure thing. Plenty of players will have to be trimmed from the 40-man to fit all of the returning 60-Day IL players back onto the team. With no-brainers including Jorge Alcala, Kenta Maeda, etc., Stashak's limited role and ceiling even when at 100% could make him a 40-man casualty.

Also consider that it likely wasn’t a given that Stashak would return at all after a 2021 season in which he posted a near 7.00 ERA, due mostly to the fact that his impeccable walk rate swelled to 13.3%. It would be awesome to see Stashak return and fill a middle relief spot, but the fact of the matter is even though he’s a solid arm for the middle innings, his ceiling is limited, his health is in question, and it may not be hard to fill his role with upcoming players such as Ronny Henriquez or Cole Sands if either get moved to the bullpen full time. The Twins will have a tough decision to make on one of the few remaining pieces of the 2019 Bomba Squad bullpen.

Blayne Enlow
It feels like we’ve heard Enlow’s name for years… because we have. Despite being selected 76th overall in 2017, Enlow is still just 23 years old. One of their top pitching prospects for several years, Enlow’s prospect stock has taken a hit. Having missed 2021 with Tommy John surgery, he returned in 2022 making a few starts before finishing the season out of the bullpen, making it Double-A Wichita.

At 23, it’s likely Enlow could build back up and have a normal career as a starting pitcher. His move to the bullpen, however, is an indication that the clock is ticking and that the Twins were hoping to see a shortened path for the 6’3 right-hander to the majors. Having made his last start on August 6, Enlow made 12 appearances out of the bullpen. He went 1-1 with 3 saves, but his 6.06 ERA with a 22.2% K rate and 12.3% BB rate doesn’t exactly indicate that he’ll be close to the majors to start 2023. It’s easy to argue that given his new role, he needs more time to adjust to the routines of a starting pitcher, but the biggest concern in terms of Enlow’s future as a Twin is how long such an adjustment could take. 

It’s possible he spends the winter adjusting and comes out of the gate more well-prepared for a short-stint role in 2023. It’s also possible that the Twins decide they don’t have the 40-man roster space to make such a gamble. At this point, the best-case scenario is that everything goes perfectly and he can debut in the Twins bullpen in mid-to-late 2023. Having only periodically flashed the high-end talent that compelled the Twins to take a prep pitcher early in the 2017 draft, it’s certainly possible that they see better uses for the 40-man spot he currently possesses.

For two fringe bullpen pieces, it may not seem like that impactful of a decision for the Twins to make in regards to keeping them on the 40-man roster. Still though, their decisions on these two likely impact whether the team goes out and brings in external help or possibly impacts other players who will be on the 40-man roster bubble. Should the Twins keep one or both around for one more year? Should they let them go? Let us know below.

 

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[RJA]

Frankly, I don't see either of these guys around much this year.  I think with his limited stuff and the injury issue, Stashak will be left off the 40 man roster.  Enlow has the magic word--potential--so I expect they might keep him to see if he can adjust to the bullpen role, but he is not someone I would protect over a lot of others if there is a crunch.  I would be surprised if we see either of them at Target Field next summer.

[Blyleven2011]

1 more year  for Enlow on the 40 man roster so he can show us if he has fully recovered from the tommy john surgery , young and still a prospect  for at least another year ...

That's my plan and I'm sticking to it  ...

[jorgenswest]

They both have options so they have value in a back end bullpen shuttle role. Is Enlow ready for that role? Did his pitches improve during the season as he moved further from Tommy John? There is no way to evaluate that with the data we have available. 

[stringer bell]

Stashak has had multiple injuries and is older. He also has far less upside than Enlow. If the Twins choose only one to protect on the 40-man roster, they really have to go with Enlow. It is obvious that relievers aren't as highly regarded as starters, making it quite possible that the Twins might cut ties with both of these guys. 

[gman]

I expect Enlow will be on the 40 man roster next year and will be working as a starter for the season.. His 2019 year at adv A ball was very good. He lost a year in 2020 like everyone else in the minors. When he returned in 2021, he started off great if for only 21 innings before he went down with elbow surgery. Until that point his walks per nine was about 2.2 showing, very good control. Last year as is typical of post tommy john surgery his walk rate was closer to 4.7/9. i think he has a bright future as a starter in the Twins org.

[roger]

We will all know what they do with Stashak over the next few weeks.  Is he on the bubble, I would guess yes.

I disagree with one of the assumptions you are making, Cody, regarding Enlow.  I don't see his move to the bullpen in mid-August as a sign that it was a decision about his future.  I see it as someone coming back from TJ and they were limiting his innings pitched in 2022.  It is possible they were deciding whether he made three more starts of 12-15 innings, or kept pitching for the remainder of the year out of the bullpen getting the same 15 innings.  They chose the bullpen. 

Doesn't mean he isn't penciled into their plans for 2023 as a starting pitcher at level X?  What that means about his 40-man roster status, I don't have a clue.  His numbers for this year are meaningless to me.  The important fact is that he was on the mound pitching and finished the season without any additional injury.

 

[Doctor Gast]

IMO Enlow has more value. Like what was discussed, Enlow has more potential and be interesting how he responds this year if he survives the crunch. As always I'd like to see trades to help reduce players on the 40 man, so we can keep Enlow to see what he has.

[mikelink45]

Not excited by Enlow, never have been.  Stashak does not have the qualities we need, but I would DFA Pagan first. 

[Linus]

Enlow to me is an example of prospect love. He’s never really pitched that well at any point in the minors. 

[DocBauer]

Stashak has been pretty reliable when healthy and has options, but, missing almost the entire season due to injury and not looking very good before being shut down, I'd say he's off the 40 man. There just isn't room for him.

Enlow was really looking like he was starting to figure some stuff out before he blew his arm out. I'd be surprised if the Twins kept h for 2yrs only to dump him now. He needs 2023 to prove he's got it going again, or is never going to get it going.

As glfar as being a reliever, I think that's way off base. Until the Twins announce something different, I'm sure he's still a starting pitcher who finished in the pen just to curtail his IP.

[tony&rodney]

Enlow is likely kept and I hope the Twins keep Stashak, but I think he gets left off the 40 person squad.

[old nurse]

About 1/3 of the pitchers could be off the 40 man.  Would anyone miss them? Only after that month they might perform well for another club. 

[MN_ExPat]

21 hours ago, gman said:

I expect Enlow will be on the 40 man roster next year and will be working as a starter for the season.. His 2019 year at adv A ball was very good. He lost a year in 2020 like everyone else in the minors. When he returned in 2021, he started off great if for only 21 innings before he went down with shoulder surgery. Until that point his walks per nine was about 2.2 showing, very good control. Last year as is typical of post tommy john surgery his walk rate was closer to 4.7/9. i think he has a bright future as a starter in the Twins org.

He had Tommy John, not shoulder surgery (that was Stashak with the bum shoulder).  

[bighat]

I think that continuing to hope that either of these guys will be meaningful contributors is a mistake. It would be nice to see Enlow get a cup of coffee at least and see what he's got.

Stashak's career numbers in 4 seasons include a 4.13 career ERA and he's never pitched more than 25 innings in a season. He'll be 29 next season. Take a step back and imagine Stashak was playing for Pittsburgh or something. You might take a peek at his stats and say "One of the reasons Pittsburgh is struggling is they continue to waste roster spots on guys like that".

We need to take off our rose-colored fan goggles on a lot of these guys. Dead weight.

[CRF]

Stashak...no. Let him go. Enlow...maybe. At least give him a look. If you gave Sands innings, you can give Enlow a look. 

[gman]

1 hour ago, MN_ExPat said:

He had Tommy John, not shoulder surgery (that was Stashak with the bum shoulder).  

I know. I mis typed.

[MN_ExPat]

2 hours ago, gman said:

I know. I mis typed.

All good, do it all the time myself .

[baul0010]

On 10/17/2022 at 7:52 AM, RJA said:

Frankly, I don't see either of these guys around much this year.  I think with his limited stuff and the injury issue, Stashak will be left off the 40 man roster.  Enlow has the magic word--potential--so I expect they might keep him to see if he can adjust to the bullpen role, but he is not someone I would protect over a lot of others if there is a crunch.  I would be surprised if we see either of them at Target Field next summer.

That was my first thought as well.  If we need these two to step into anything more than fringe roles we may be in trouble again next year.  

I am excited for a healthy Jorge Alcala.  Anyone know what his status is?  I haven't heard anything.  I think, if healthy, he could be a very good addition to the pen.  

[PatPfund]

Just because you let somebody go off the 40 man doesn't mean they are gone (look how many times Cotton got waived this year).

Stashak isn't on the bubble, he is a bounce from the 40 man as soon as they have to. Nobody is claiming a labrum-issue whose last good year was years ago, so he may well be back next year. Enlow is probably more likely to be claimed, but that still might be less than a 50-50 shot.

So I guess he is on the bubble, but I won't lose sleep if Enlow gets dropped (especially if it protects a better player). There are likely to be better players on the waiver wire.