Why an Elvis Andrus Trade Will Solve All of the Twins' Problems (Almost)

[Buenos_beisbol]

Thirty-three year old short stop, Elvis Andrus, is nearing the end of a 8 year, 120,000,000 dollar extension that he signed in 2016 with the Texas Rangers.  Andrus has been a constant and solid defender with complimentary bat to ball skills.  Should the Twins make a move to acquire his services until the likes of Royce Lewis and Austin Martin are ready to take the reigns? 

[TwinsDr2021]

It couldn't hurt, and it shouldn't cost the Twins a top 50 prospect, so at this time why not. Worst case he sucks and it costs the Twins 6.75 million, best case he is good, a youngster steps up and they flip him a the deadline for something better than they gave up.

[Major League Ready]

37 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

It couldn't hurt, and it shouldn't cost the Twins a top 50 prospect, so at this time why not. Worst case he sucks and it costs the Twins 6.75 million, best case he is good, a youngster steps up and they flip him a the deadline for something better than they gave up.

He has no trade value or probably negative trade value so we wouldn't need to give up anything.  That said, he is a decent one year solution.

[miracleb]

oh boy,......let's go get a light hitting shortstop with good defense.........where have I heard that before?

 

[TopGunn#22]

I voted "Like to Read a little more" because as always "It depends on what else you get back."  Here is a trade scenario based on MLB Trade Values where we acquire Andrus a little somethin' else:

 

Athletics Get:  Arraez  27.9 and Simeon Woods-Richardson 9.6  Total 37.5

Twins Get:  Elvis Andrus  -4.2 and Frankie Montas  39.6  Total 35.4

It's a bit of an overpay for the Twins but the A's would do it to get a versatile bat and a young pitcher with very good potential.

I'd do it in a heartbeat for the Twins because I get Montas to head my rotation for at minimum 2 seasons while my young pitchers sort out who's a keeper and who isn't.  One thing I have to applaud the current FO for is that at times we've listed at least 16 young, up and coming pitchers in the Twins organization.  16 !!  We can't possibly expect all of them to work out and with our current dire need for "experienced" pitching (that is also fairly young and talented) we can afford to part with ONE promising arm to get a proven big league #1 or #2.  AND, while Andrus may not be the BEST SS out there he does check several boxes.  1:  He's a dependable fielder and he's durable.  He still has decent bat to ball skills, in other words, he won't put up a Simmons type offensive year.  2:  He's a perfect stop gap SS while the Twins figure out that Austin Martin is their future LF'er and Lewis either shows he's the future SS or he's a RF/3B candidate.  

Montas is valued at 39.6.  Bassitt is 17.0 and Manaea is 18.0 for a total value of 35.5.  If you wanted, you could swap Bassitt and Manaea in for Montas and get a little something more from Oakland, but I'm choosing Montas because Bassitt and Manaea are one season acquisitions and Montas has Ace potential and is multiple.  Plus, with the pipeline of young pitchers ripening in our organization, we don't need 2 "placeholders" we need an Ace to build around.  If Montas ends up being the equal of Berrios (or even better) then I sign HIM to the extension Jose wanted because by that time, the Twins will have multiple, young pitchers who are extremely affordable contributing at the big league level.  

THIS is why I would consider trading for Elvis Andrus.  

[sthpstm]

His option (potential player option) is too complicated. The first year isn’t the issue, it’s the second year that is and I’m not sure you can accurately value that.

[wsnydes]

For me, it depends on how long the lockout goes.  If it starts impacting the regular season, it might make more sense to bring in a veteran and see how far that will take you. 

But it depends on what the FO is really trying to do.  If they're punting on the season, then I'd be against it.  Let the kids play at that point.  But if they're trying to catch lighting in a bottle and go after a playoff spot, especially in a short season, then I'd be all for it.

[sthpstm]

And in the next year or 2 he absolutely could have as bad a year as Simmons did. Look at his last 3 years. He’s heading that direction.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Sure, why not? I’ve pretty much given up on this off-season, may as well put a cherry on top of my disappointment sundae.

 

[miller761]

Think Andrus has a full no trade clause because of his trade to Oakland. I f that is the case the deal becomes much more difficult. Otherwise I would be in favor of that 2 for2 deal.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, sthpstm said:

His option (potential player option) is too complicated. The first year isn’t the issue, it’s the second year that is and I’m not sure you can accurately value that.

Good point.  I didn't realize he had a player option.  It's not a great solution to begin with so this takes it off the table.

[tony&rodney]

FWIW - from BaseballProspectus-

Elvis Andrus ss
8 years/$120M (2015-22), plus 2023 option - this contract was signed with Texas

• 8 years/$120M (2015-22), plus 2023 vesting option
  • 22:$14M, 23:$15M club option
  • 2023 becomes player option with 1) trade or waiver claim and 2) 550 plate appearances in 2022 or 1,100 PAs in 2021-22 combined
  • if traded, Andrus receives full no-trade protection with new club

 

[RonCoomersOPS]

I wouldn't be opposed to it if he was included with Montas and Manaea, especially as he would likely lessen the cost on our side. Worst case, he's designated   make way for Lewis or Martin.

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

FWIW - from BaseballProspectus-

Elvis Andrus ss
8 years/$120M (2015-22), plus 2023 option - this contract was signed with Texas

• 8 years/$120M (2015-22), plus 2023 vesting option
  • 22:$14M, 23:$15M club option
  • 2023 becomes player option with 1) trade or waiver claim and 2) 550 plate appearances in 2022 or 1,100 PAs in 2021-22 combined
  • if traded, Andrus receives full no-trade protection with new club

 

I am sure he would waive the no trade clause if his option were picked up.  (Note: I wouldn't advocate picking up his option to trade him, but he will want to go where it is most likely to vest) But I would want a SP included in any trade for Elvis.  

It would be fun to have Elvis on the Twins.  I wonder which Elvis song would be his walkup.

but I disagree with Montas as getting Bassit would be significantly cheaper, and we could sign him to a 3 year 40 - 45 million or 4-year contract I the 60-64 million range basically getting 4 years of Berrios for the cost of 3.  

[Doctor Gast]

4 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I voted "Like to Read a little more" because as always "It depends on what else you get back."  Here is a trade scenario based on MLB Trade Values where we acquire Andrus a little somethin' else:

 

Athletics Get:  Arraez  27.9 and Simeon Woods-Richardson 9.6  Total 37.5

Twins Get:  Elvis Andrus  -4.2 and Frankie Montas  39.6  Total 35.4

It's a bit of an overpay for the Twins but the A's would do it to get a versatile bat and a young pitcher with very good potential.

I'd do it in a heartbeat for the Twins because I get Montas to head my rotation for at minimum 2 seasons while my young pitchers sort out who's a keeper and who isn't.  One thing I have to applaud the current FO for is that at times we've listed at least 16 young, up and coming pitchers in the Twins organization.  16 !!  We can't possibly expect all of them to work out and with our current dire need for "experienced" pitching (that is also fairly young and talented) we can afford to part with ONE promising arm to get a proven big league #1 or #2.  AND, while Andrus may not be the BEST SS out there he does check several boxes.  1:  He's a dependable fielder and he's durable.  He still has decent bat to ball skills, in other words, he won't put up a Simmons type offensive year.  2:  He's a perfect stop gap SS while the Twins figure out that Austin Martin is their future LF'er and Lewis either shows he's the future SS or he's a RF/3B candidate.  

Montas is valued at 39.6.  Bassitt is 17.0 and Manaea is 18.0 for a total value of 35.5.  If you wanted, you could swap Bassitt and Manaea in for Montas and get a little something more from Oakland, but I'm choosing Montas because Bassitt and Manaea are one season acquisitions and Montas has Ace potential and is multiple.  Plus, with the pipeline of young pitchers ripening in our organization, we don't need 2 "placeholders" we need an Ace to build around.  If Montas ends up being the equal of Berrios (or even better) then I sign HIM to the extension Jose wanted because by that time, the Twins will have multiple, young pitchers who are extremely affordable contributing at the big league level.  

THIS is why I would consider trading for Elvis Andrus.  

I'd probably wouldn't trade for Andrus straight up, I don't know how good he is defensively. But with Montas, I'd do it. I'd personally like to hold on to SWR and go with a different pitching prospect.

[Old fox]

I wouldn’t because I want to keep the Simmons- Woods - Richardson as he is very young, & has outstanding skills. I would make the trade Arraez, Dobnik, Sands, Vallimont, Rooker & Thorp for for Montas, Andries

[nicksaviking]

I was waiting to read what kind of players the Twins get back in taking on Andrus. I have no interest in him otherwise, his bat died years ago.

And good lord, what if the Twins were so strapped for alternatives later in the year that his 2023 option kicked in? Yuk.

[PseudoSABR]

A mere placeholder, which would the A's would probably pay us in prospects to take off their hands.  Added bonus, no resigning of Simmons. 

[RpR]

20 hours ago, Buenos_beisbol said:

Thirty-three year old short stop, Elvis Andrus, is nearing the end of a 8 year, 120,000,000 dollar extension that he signed in 2016 with the Texas Rangers.  Andrus has been a constant and solid defender with complimentary bat to ball skills.  Should the Twins make a move to acquire his services until the likes of

Royce Lewis and Austin Martin are ready to take the reigns? 

Here is Simmons' defense, -- that would be a foolish move' --  Andrus career BA is .272, after this year Simmons is .265.

[bean5302]

Andrus' defense is universally below average from defensive metrics, and to top it off, the Athletics shift heavily which makes values from Baseball Reference (Rdrs and RF/9) optimistic. Fangraphs' UZR/150 is slightly negative in what winds up being a pretty small sample size and it's trended down to average-ish from good as Andrus has aged. Finally, Baseball Savant shows Andrus' lateral movement both to right and left are below average. 

We know Andrus cannot hit. It also seems pretty conclusive he's not a good fielder, either. I don't see any value in playing Andrus over Gordon or Palacios.

Top players were flying off the boards as both teams and players were aggressive, but the Twins didn't even seem to be in the discussion on anyone prior to the lockout. The signals they were sending were clear. The Twins do not plan to seriously compete this year. It's a build or rebuild year and we won't know which until the lockout ends and the trades are all consummated.

[Buenos_beisbol]

Sorry for taking so long to respond and write this.  To start off I'd like to address some negatives and positives I've found in an Elvis Andrus trade.  First the Positives

It's no secret that the Twins probably aren't willing to dish out a 9 figure, 10 year deal to the likes of Carlos Correa or Trevor Story.  Behind those, the options to fill in as a bridge to get to our youngsters is slim pickings.  An Elvis Andrus trade would do just that.  Andrus has spent 13 years in the majors, and is only 33.  In this 13 years he as had two all star appearances and owns a .272 batting average.  Another positive is his injury history, or lack thereof.  For comparison Josh Donaldson has been in the league for 9 years.  During those nine years he has spent 207 days in the injured list.  Andrus, on the other had has only spend 115 games on the injured list, the majority of which came from an elbow injury; he spent 63 days on the il.  

It has been reported that the Athletics are looking to ship away some of their key pieces.  It's not really a stretch of the imagination that they'd be looking to move on from an older shortstop who is on the downward side of his prime.  That being said, the cost of acquiring his services should be decently low.  The twins should be able to move a non top 150 prospect in order to aquire him.  I think a guy like Chris Vallimont or Cole Sands would be enough.

Remember, this move isn't about being competitive.  Yes, I know he's older and his stats are on the decline, but we only need him until Lewis and/or Martin are ready for the bigs.  

[Buenos_beisbol]

7 hours ago, Old fox said:

I wouldn’t because I want to keep the Simmons- Woods - Richardson as he is very young, & has outstanding skills. I would make the trade Arraez, Dobnik, Sands, Vallimont, Rooker & Thorp for for Montas, Andries

The Twins could move Arreaz and probably get a pitcher or two along with Andrus

[Buenos_beisbol]

29 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Andrus' defense is universally below average from defensive metrics, and to top it off, the Athletics shift heavily which makes values from Baseball Reference (Rdrs and RF/9) optimistic. Fangraphs' UZR/150 is slightly negative in what winds up being a pretty small sample size and it's trended down to average-ish from good as Andrus has aged. Finally, Baseball Savant shows Andrus' lateral movement both to right and left are below average. 

We know Andrus cannot hit. It also seems pretty conclusive he's not a good fielder, either. I don't see any value in playing Andrus over Gordon or Palacios.

Top players were flying off the boards as both teams and players were aggressive, but the Twins didn't even seem to be in the discussion on anyone prior to the lockout. The signals they were sending were clear. The Twins do not plan to seriously compete this year. It's a build or rebuild year and we won't know which until the lockout ends and the trades are all consummated.

I think that the Twins will continue to use Nick Gordon in a super utility role.  He has shown potential in the outfield while filling in for Buxton, and Gordon could still get his at bats filling in when guys need a day off.  Hey, who knows, maybe Gordon proves he can hit consistently and you move him into an everyday role.  Keeping him in a utility role to start the season would keep his doors open to where he could slid into every day.  An Andrus trade isn't going to be a move in a competitive direction, but it will help to make sure Lewis and Martin aren't pressed into action too soon.

[RpR]

So would re-singing Simmons.

[TheLeviathan]

Let's aim for major-league level competence as both a fielder and a hitter.  We just had an atrocity of a season offensively from a guy and we've seen what defensive atrociousness can do to a team....let's do better than anyone named in this thread.

[Buenos_beisbol]

Just now, TheLeviathan said:

Let's aim for major-league level competence as both a fielder and a hitter.  We just had an atrocity of a season offensively from a guy and we've seen what defensive atrociousness can do to a team....let's do better than anyone named in this thread.

Who would you suggest?  

[TheLeviathan]

1 minute ago, Buenos_beisbol said:

Who would you suggest?  

Well, I'm on the record saying I'd have shelled out for a SS in this market.  There was a bevy of options and the Twins have plenty of money to sign one.  So, Trevor Story.  Or ask about Kiner-Falefa on Texas if you want a cheaper option.  At least that's a guy with some upside and not on the down-slide.

[tony&rodney]

Neither Andrus nor Simmons are reasonable options for the Twins, whether they are hoping to compete in 2022 or are  in a rebuild/lose 90+ strategy phase looking to build toward 2025.

[rv78]

Just like starting pitching the Twins, IMO have no intention of signing a top Free Agent at shortstop. We were all hoping for a major acquisition to the rotation and we got Bundy. (Last year they waited for the left-overs and got Shoemaker and Happ and we know how that turned out). We were all hoping for a Trevor Story type upgrade and we'll end up with someone like Simmons, Ehire Adrianza or they'll just run Nick Gordon out there and cross their fingers hoping that works. There is no urgency with this FO to make this a contending team. Saving money looks like the move they decided on and with no end in site to the current lockout it might make them look like geniuses.

[Buenos_beisbol]

12 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

So, Trevor Story.  Or ask about Kiner-Falefa on Texas if you want a cheaper option.

I'd be all for a Kiner-Falefa trade.  He's was kinda pushed to the side when the Rangers signed Marcus Simien and Corey Seager.  That would seem to be an interesting trade. However I'd imagine that the Rangers would want a pitching prospect, and who we'd have to give up is my concern.