BOS 4, MIN 2: More Missed Opportunities, Another Blown Lead

[Jamie Cameron]

The Minnesota Twins went 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position and left 10 men on base in their 4-2 loss to the Red Sox Tuesday afternoon. Read more about the game in today’s recap.Box Score

J.A. Happ: 4.2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K

Home Runs: None

Bottom 3 WPA: Simmons -.230, Cave -.133, Polanco -.073

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs):

Download attachment: chart.png

 

Snow Instead of Rain, Cruz Scratched

As J.A. Happ took to the mound for his first start of the season at Target Field. The Twins ballpark was a frigid 34 degrees with flurries of snow. Nelson Cruz was a late scratch from the lineup with a non COVID related illness (why does this keep happening?). Josh Donaldson, it seems, will make his return to the lineup from an opening day hamstring strain on Wednesday, when first pitch temperatures are predicted to be in the mid 40s.

 

 

Buxton Leads Off, Stays Hot.

J.A. Happ managed a scoreless top of the first despite getting into some deep counts with the top of Boston’s lineup. Hitting leadoff for the first time in 2021, Byron Buxton continued his searing form, ripping a first pitch, broken bat double down the first base line.

 

 

Kyle Garlick was hit by a pitch before old friend Martin Pérez walked Mitch Garver to load the bases. Jorge Polanco hit a deep sacrifice fly, scoring Buxton, before a Luis Arraez groundout scored Garlick to push the Twins to a 2-0 lead.

 

Arraez Flashes the Leather

Happ continued to work inefficiently in the second inning putting two men on with no outs. Luis Arraez helped squash the threat with a beautiful double play, forcing Xander Bogaerts at third before a beautiful Willians Astudillo scoop got Christian Vazquez at first.

 

Happ Steady Enough, Until he Wasn’t

After an inefficient first three innings with several three ball counts, Happ finally settled in the fourth. Andrew Thares noted early that Happ had a clear plan of attack for some of Boston’s better hitters.

 

 

While Happ was hardly an exciting offseason signing, his command in the fourth inning improved notably and showed what he is capable of from the fifth spot in the rotation, painting the corners as the game went on, and taking advantage of strong framing from Mitch Garver, and a generous strike zone from Mark Carlson.

 

Happ is one of the oldest starters in MLB, and has proved to be exactly what we thought he would be so far in 2021, a solid, average, MLB starter.

 

 

Happ finally blinked in the fifth inning, as a Hunter Renfroe solo home run to straight center got the Red Sox on the board. Noted Twins assassin Bobby Dalbec doubled in Vazquez to tie the game, knocking Happ out after 4 2/3 innings.

 

Bullpens Battle, Twins Fall Short Again

After a promising start against Pérez, the Twins offense again sputtered to a dejecting halt, doing little to trouble the Red Sox starter after the first inning. As Randy Dobnak entered the game in the sixth inning, the clouds parted and the flurries melted away, as if Dobnak was the spark the Twins were waiting for.

 

Dobnak cruised through the sixth and seventh innings, inducing five ground balls in a flawless 15 pitches before giving up back to back doubles to begin the eighth inning, Bobby Dalbec again stinging the Twins, bringing home Christian Arroyo.

 

Jorge Alcala served up a solo shot to Rafael Devers in the ninth. The insurance run was more than enough for Boston. Darwinzon Hernandez and and Matt Barnes combining for two scoreless innings in the eighth and ninth.

 

After a promising start, the Twins managed one hit in four innings against the Red Sox bullpen, which will inevitably lead to frustration about another game squandered from a winning position.

 

 

To finish on a positive, Willians Astudillo provided the lone Twins offensive highlight in the latter innings, sliding under a tag from Bobby Dalbec on his way to first base.

 

 

What were your highlights from the game today? What were your frustrations? What do you think the Twins need to get them back to winning ways?

 

Postgame Interview

 

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

Click here to see the bullpen usage over the past five days (link opens a Google Sheet).

 

Click here to view the article

[USAFChief]

Just goona be really tough to win with this bullpen.

 

I know the offense is struggling, but hopefully that'll turn around at least some.

 

But I don't know how you can ever trust this bullpen to win close games. 

[Doctor Gast]

Dobnak has lost his groove and confidence. Sad to see

[cHawk]

 

Just goona be really tough to win with this bullpen.

 

I think it’s gonna be more tough to win with this manager.

[rico7961]

Twins are a 72-90 team. Not much going for them. Terrible bullpen will sink any team and the offense is very weak. We won’t lose any playoff games this season. Cause we won’t be playing any.

[Aggies7]

So many players had career years in 2019 offensively, I think it skewed our expectations. Polanco, garver, Kepler, sano...just not the same since. Throw in auto out cave and below avg austudillo and I guess 6-6 is to be expected

[Darius]

...and the bullpen is predictably derailing what should be an excellent start to the season.

 

Everyone on Earth, besides Falvine and a couple of pocket protectors here, saw it coming from miles away. Awful roster management.

[peterb18]

 

I think it’s gonna be more tough to win with this manager.

No kidding!

[Danchat]

I'm more concerned about the offense going 0 for 8 in RISP situations than the bullpen. We saw this countless times in 2020, was the primary reason why we got swept in the playoffs, and the hitters are looking cold yet again. The bullpen giving up 2 runs over 4 1/3 innings isn't a huge concern to me

[twinbythebay]

 

Dobnak has lost his groove and confidence. Sad to see

He gave up two hits and one run over three innings... Seems to me that he had the best outing of any Twins pitcher today!

[blindeke]

 

I'm more concerned about the offense going 0 for 8 in RISP situations than the bullpen. We saw this countless times in 2020, was the primary reason why we got swept in the playoffs, and the hitters are looking cold yet again. The bullpen giving up 2 runs over 4 1/3 innings isn't a huge concern to me

 

They were also literally cold.

[twinbythebay]

 

...and the bullpen is predictably derailing what should be an excellent start to the season.

Everyone on Earth, besides Falvine and a couple of pocket protectors here, saw it coming from miles away. Awful roster management.

The bullpen is in the top five in the league in almost every meaningful metric... I think too many people here are blaming the bullpen for these losses when the bats are disappearing in the mid to late innings.

[cHawk]

 

...and the bullpen is predictably derailing what should be an excellent start to the season.

 

I think you’re worrying too much about our regular season record. I thought the regular season didn’t matter? There are 152 games left.

[Aggies7]

He gave up two hits and one run over three innings... Seems to me that he had the best outing of any Twins pitcher today!

I think it’s a fair question to ask why we used a long reliever into the 8th inning of a tie game coming off an off day. Maybe nothing would have been different but why did we need to try and get 3 innings out of him?

[cHawk]

 

Twins are a 72-90 team. Not much going for them. Terrible bullpen will sink any team and the offense is very weak. We won’t lose any playoff games this season. Cause we won’t be playing any.

 

This isn’t out of the question. But they’re .500 without two of their best hitters in the lineup. Also the bullpen has a 2.54 ERA so far. I’m not saying the pen is good but everyone here is letting the hitters get off scot free for scoring 0 runs in the 9th or 10th Inning.

[twinbythebay]

 

I think it’s a fair question to ask why we used a long reliever into the 8th inning of a tie game coming off an off day. Maybe nothing would have been different but why did we need to try and get 3 innings out of him?

Sure, I think that's fair. Perhaps if the bats had shown any sign of life, Rocco would've managed things differently, but there's not much to be done when nobody is hitting.

[Dr. Evil]

Blame the bullpen??? Must be based on emotion but not backed up by reality. How about some timely hitting and more productive at bats maybe?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I think it’s a fair question to ask why we used a long reliever into the 8th inning of a tie game coming off an off day. Maybe nothing would have been different but why did we need to try and get 3 innings out of him?

I liked the idea of keeping a long guy in the game if he’s warmed up, and effective. Instead of bringing in a string of guys cold off the bench until one of them implodes.

[Tom Froemming]

 

The bullpen is in the top five in the league in almost every meaningful metric... I think too many people here are blaming the bullpen for these losses when the bats are disappearing in the mid to late innings.

Fact. Bullpen ranks entering today:

 

ERA 8th

WHIP 5th

FIP 4th

xFIP 3rd

SIERA 3rd

K-BB% 4th

CSW 6th

 

And giving up two runs on three hits and a walk over 4 1/3 innings today shouldn't do too much to hurt those numbers. The bullpen's WPA is junk, 19th in the league entering today, and that's part of how we get to 5-5, but all other signs are pointing to this unit not being an area of concern overall.

 

To your other point ...

 

Twins runs scored 2021

Innings 1-3: 21

Innings 4-6: 23

Innings 7-9: 13

 

When you're basically asking the bullpen to be perfect almost every night it's easy for it to feel like they're performing miserably.

[Tom Froemming]

Sure feels like this lineup could use a spark. Too bad they don't have  a top hitting prospect just waiting in the wings across town. That'd be too good to be true.

[USAFChief]

Color me unimpressed with XFIP, Sierra, dohickky, or other new age hoohah.

 

The bullpen is weak, and has directly impacted every loss.

 

I expect the offense to be better. I think the defense is fine. Starting pitching isn't overpowering, but should keep us in plenty of games.

 

But it's up to the pen to turn all that into W's. I don't think Falvine have done a good job of building one capable of that on a consistent enough basis.

 

And I don't know what the fix is.

[Boesepj]

Too many holes in the lineup.

Cave, Sano, either catcher.

Without Cruz in the lineup it has no teeth.

[Aggies7]

seems as though the twins offense observed 8 innings of silence this afternoon

[cHawk]

 

Blame the bullpen??? Must be based on emotion but not backed up by reality. How about some timely hitting and more productive at bats maybe?

 

Exactly. WPA is a completely garbage stat.

 

Although averaging 12 runs given up in the 9th Inning (slightly less than one earned run per ninth inning) is a problem but that’s due to a pair of three run implosions.

[Boesepj]

Color me unimpressed with XFIP, Sierra, dohickky, or other new age hoohah.The bullpen is weak, and has directly impacted every loss. I expect the offense to be better. I think the defense is fine. Starting pitching isn't overpowering, but should keep us in plenty of games.But it's up to the pen to turn all that into W's. I don't think Falvine have done a good job of building one capable of that on a consistent enough basis. And I don't know what the fix is.

 

Why do you expect the offense to be better? They were not great last year. Haven't shown any signs of being better this year. Sano is a black hole in the lineup. Whatever they are doing with left field is a disaster. Neither catcher can be counted on for contributing much to the offense. Not sure what is going on with Polanco and Kepler. Their pitching staff is going to have to win a lot of low scoring games. Not sure they're equipped to do that.

[cHawk]

 

And I don't know what the fix is.

 

There’s a solution to every problem.

[Aggies7]

 

Exactly. WPA is a completely garbage stat.

 

Although averaging 12 runs given up in the 9th Inning (slightly less than one earned run per ninth inning) is a problem but that’s due to a pair of three run implosions.

I'm only in my 30's but the only WPA i've ever heard of was part of FDR's New Deal

[MMMordabito]

Not going to panic 10 games into the season with a .500 team on a snowy day after another series of off-field unfortunate events, but Baldelli's lineup today puzzled me. It doesn't get much colder than Garver/Polanco/Sano, and yet it was decided that said trio would be the heart of the order. I know the Cruz scratch f'd things up, but I'm still scratching my head on today's order.

 

Arraez has a career 15% walk rate and 370 OBP against lefties, so I don't understand why he isn't batting leadoff every game regardless of handedness on the mound. Too bad Mike Bell isn't still around to bark in Roccobot's ear on that one. May he rest in peace.

[Monticore]

The bullpen and the inept late inning bats are both deficits. I'd also like to see a new manager. He's lackluster, non-creative, couldn't win a playoff game to save his life. I don't know what they saw in him to begin with.

[Aggies7]

 

The bullpen and the inept late inning bats are both deficits. I'd also like to see a new manager. He's lackluster, non-creative, couldn't win a playoff game to save his life. I don't know what they saw in him to begin with.

the twins need to make in-game management a social justice issue. that way Rocco will be all over it