Report: Twins Willing to Back Out on Blockbuster Deal

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I concur with Aaron Gleeman listening to their last podcast. How can the Red Sox;

1) Determine solely off a medical report Graterol is not a starting pitcher?

1. A player's medical report is very comprehensive. Sorry I've linked this a million times already, but it's basically every exam, every interaction with trainers, every treatment recommended, and the results of those treatments. It's absolutely possible that some data in there would shift their original forecast for Graterol, as compared to the publicly available information:

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2020/02/06/how-baseball-teams-exchange-medical-information-after-agreeing-trade/Nu56T96T3GENiqQQs0amZN/story.html?outputType=amp

 

The fact that the Twins were willing to deal Graterol for Maeda suggests that there's some pessimistic non-public info on Graterol. Perhaps this should have been a hint to the Red Sox, although the extent of it may not have been known. And of course the nature of such analysis is going to be subjective -- not every team or trainer is going to look at the medical report and agree on the same forecast for the player. For example, the Twins may have given him 30% odds of returning to starting and conveyed that to the Red Sox during negotiations, but after the medical review, the Red Sox independently may have thought it more like 10%.

 

And...

2) Still want him included in the trade after his medical report halted this whole negotiation?

If Graterol is such a red flag, then the Sox should have requested another starting pitching prospect. That would have been a somewhat reasonable negotiation tactic... Still requesting Graterol + another top prospect? That seems fishy....

Rumor suggests that the Red Sox did request Balazovic in place of Graterol, and the Twins declined. I'm sure they asked about Dodgers pitching prospects earlier in the process too and were rebuffed, hence how the Twins and Maeda got involved in the first place.

 

Graterol is still a good pitcher with value. The Red Sox likely wanted a young pitching component to the trade, and it seems that Graterol was probably still the best young pitcher the Red Sox could feasibly get, even if it his forecast value wasn't as high to them after the medical review.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Why not? Throw in a Rooker, who cares. Do we really want Maeda? I do not know the medical issues so I cannot comment on them. In the end if we keep Graterol, but lose Maeda is that a satisfactory ending?

We don’t know what the alternative prospects offered were. I think it’s highly likely one of the glut of outfield prospects were offered.

 

I’d rather have Graterol than lose too much on a trade for Maeda. I like Maeda, but not at the cost of two top ten pitching prospects.

 

Part of this is the state of the Twins rotation. In the zombie apocalypse, always leave a bullet in the mag to do yourself in before the horde can overtake you.

 

They’re going to have to make more moves. Giving up too much value for Maeda now means not being able to make another trade later.

[ashbury]

Headline is wrong. Boston IS the team that backed out.

Came here to say this. I kept seeing the phrasing in the comments on MLBTR articles concerning the trade, and wondering where this spin was coming from.

 

Turn around and walk away, after the Bosox backed out, fine.

[jmlease1]

 

The vitriol at a team that got the medical details, and then decided they didn't like the idea as much, is amazing to me. They did nothing wrong at all.

 

Except it doesn't look like this at all. They still want Graterol, they just want more now, and it seems impossible to be able to get any more information off the medicals right now than what we already knew from the Twins public actions: they weren't sure he could hold up as a starter and thought he was best off in the bullpen this season. This also jives with what a lot of independent analysts were saying about Graterol. If the medicals showed an actual injury, there's no way the BoSox would have still wanted him as part of the deal.

 

And that's the crux of this: they're asking for Graterol plus another top pick as if Graterol isn't a top pick any longer. And it seems like the reason isn't the medicals at all but the fact that they're getting crushed by their fan base and by everyone, everyone in the media. People are calling this deal a massive steal for the Dodgers and a travesty for the BoSox, particularly because people see it as throwing in the towel on this season and giving up a generational talent in order to get out from under a bad contract in Price and save the owners money. They're not a small market team: they're printing money there and even using a Twins-like 1/2 gross revenue = payroll cap they could afford a payroll of like $250M a year without breaking a sweat.

 

The other reason to crush Boston on this one is they're asking for more from the Twins on this, rather than the Dodgers. Graterol for Meada is a pretty reasonable trade. It's one that made a lot of Twins fans twitchy because of the potential of Graterol and the fact that Maeda has never had an elite season. Again: you have to give up something to get something and it sure seemed like most people thought this was a fair value. But the BoSox want more from the Twins, not the Dodgers, even though the Dodgers are getting the best player in this deal by far. And it sure looks like it's because the BoSox like the Twins prospects more than the Dodgers prospects, but that's no reason for the Twins to overpay to make those clowns happy. We're not their farm system.

 

If the Twins decide they really like Maeda and it's worth tossing in their #27 prospect who's a A-ball lottery ticket pitcher or a corner OF who's only shown one plus skill or something...fine? But they're right not to overpay here, and they're right to do everything they can to make Boston look like the incompetent fools they are here. They don't look like a team that has honest concerns about medical issues here, they look like a team who realized they were getting fleeced for Betts, were getting killed in the media for it, and decided to throw Graterol under the bus to try and save it for themselves. Bad staff work.

[Squirrel]

 

Why not?  Throw in a Rooker, who cares.  Do we really want Maeda?  I do not know the medical issues so I cannot comment on them.  In the end if we keep Graterol, but lose Maeda is that a satisfactory ending?

 

The Twins did offer someone in addition to Graterol ... don't know who, but supposedly in the 15-20 range. Boston said no. Boston wants a top 10 in addition to Graterol. And good for the FO to say no to that. I don't know what's in the medicals, either ... but Boston does, and Boston still wants him. That should say something. What's been said as that they no longer view him as a starter (which really isn't anything new, imo), but they still want him. They've said no to our offers and we're not offering a top 10 in addition. So ... they are the ones who have said no to the trade. But I'm okay with keeping Graterol. There's still a possibility of working out a trade with the Dodgers for Maeda. Not sure what will get it done, though, or if that will get done at this point.

[Vanimal46]

Do the rules change during the season? Otherwise why couldn’t the Twins back out of the Dyson trade last year after reviewing his medical reports? They learned within a week he was damaged goods and needed surgery.

 

Chaim gets a good week to review medicals in February while teams at the trade deadline get 10 minutes to review medical reports?

[jorgenswest]

I think the difference might be the deadline. I think the paperwork needs to be completed and to the league by the deadline. This deal wasn’t never completed. It wasn’t announced by the teams. The Red Sox didn’t like the medical and didn’t complete the deal. Clearly it would be best if teams and agents could keep all of this quiet until the trade is officially announced and completed.

[Det95Twins]

That’s great news! I hope those cheating Red Sox choke on Mookie Betts and David Price!

[TKGuy]

Bloom has no credibility left after this, tough spot for a GM. Plus he was dealing with former colleague in Friedman, just looks bad

[twinsnorth49]

They get the Twins #3 prospect, a hard throwing pitcher no less, and then say they want another top 10 prospect as well?

 

I hope Falvine made sure Bloom heard the laughter before they hung up the phone.

[Ruven]

Reusse’s take is top notch:

Hey, Boston: Duress is no excuse for making a bad trade. http://strib.mn/38b0J9D

[bunsen82]

I ultimately think Gratoral goes to the Red Sox, I think he is still highly rated by the Red Sox, however as long as a deal gets done between the Red Sox and Dodgers even if it doesn't include us,  I think we still get Maeda. 

 

The irony of that is we might actual get a better deal for the Twins as we will be trading from a surplus, likely our bats for a pitcher, rather than one of our top 3 or 4 current pitching prospects.  The Dodgers currently do not have a starting pitcher spot for Maeda and view him as a surplus if they get Price.  They still need to trade Maeda then.  I still think the Twins value Maeda more than any other team and are interested in trading for him, and now our hitting prospects now come into play as the Dodgers are loaded on the pitching side.  My guess is this all resolved by Tuesday.   We will see.  

[Vanimal46]

 

It’s not dead yet... Glad the Twins are just working with the Dodgers to get Maeda.

[Dantes929]

In a perfect world we trade outfield prospects for Maeda, Graterol stays with us, becomes a starter next year, wins multiple Cy Young awards and leads the Twins to multiple World Series just so we can say "Suck it" to Boston management and their fans.   Ok, really it would be great for its own sake.   I don't really care that much about Boston or its fans but it would be a nice little bonus.

[wabene]

With this latest twist there is a chance we get Maeda for a bat instead of Brusdar and to me that would be the best possible outcome. I would be more than happy to watch our flamethrower's career unfold.

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

Seem to me that the Dodgers would be more interested in young bats than almost MLB ready pitchers.  Getting the cheating Sox out of the process may benefit the Twins.

[sftwinsfan]

I'm liking this deal less and less if it sounds like the Twins have to send Graterol plus more to the Dodgers for Maeda. I really hope it's not another significant prospect.

[gunnarthor]

Did this get posted yet?

 

[Rigby]

 

I'm liking this deal less and less if it sounds like the Twins have to send Graterol plus more to the Dodgers for Maeda. I really hope it's not another significant prospect.

 

If the Dodgers thought Maeda was more valuable than Graterol, Friedman would have asked for more initially. He is teaching a lesson now....

[Bomba2026]

Like my dad use to say, You don't get rid of a Good, dependable car....

[cardsfan]

Let us worry about that. Why did your team sit out the offseason?

My team signed one of the best Korean pitchers for 2 years for $4 million per year. Very, good slider. We don't know if he will relieve or start. He's been back from surgery for a couple years now.

 

Our 100 mph pitcher, Alex Reyes, who has recovered from arm surgery a couple years ago, then some abdomen strain or tear, and then last year may be finally ready to go. I'm surprised the Dodgers didn't offer to trade Maeda for him.

 

We have 10-11 real major possible starters counting the Korean lefty. Plus we got Tampa's top minor league pitching prospect this offseason.

 

We've tried inquiring how to get Arenado if Colorado wants to eliminate a disgruntled employee cheaply. Why give lots of prospects and pay $$$$ when could sign a comparable FA.

[Squirrel]

It sounds like they are now close to a deal ...

[TwinsFan347]

 

Unfairly? His velocity contributed to a shoulder impingement and a Tommy John surgery. How many games do you think he will start over the next 6 years before he becomes a free agent?

 

None of us know how many games he will start, but do you how many games G. Cole will start during his 9 year contract, No, no one does. Pitching is hard on the body and injuries happen all the time and not just to guys throwing 100+. Nolan Ryan was one of the most durable pitchers in recent history and he had 300+ IP in multiple years and was dominant into his 40's. The point is nobody knows.

 

Then there's that obvious fact that relievers have much more value in today's game than they did years ago since SP's don't go nearly as deep into games and we have opener's. If Brusdar pitches the next 6 years in our BP is very effective that's way more valuable than what Maeda was likely to give us over the next 2,3 or 4 years depending on how long he held up. 

 

I'm so glad the Twins are out of this deal. Thank You Boston.

[Riverbrian]

 

It sounds like they are now close to a deal ...

 

It's Sunday

 

This trade was announced Tuesday Night.

 

I have joined Tony Clark, Scott Boras and Arte Moreno in the "this is ridiculous" chorus. 

 

The tragedy is a 21 year old pitcher by the name of Brusdar Graterol who has been type cast.  

 

If he goes to the Red Sox, he walks in the door with a label. 

If he goes to the Dodgers, he walks in the door with a label. 

If he stays with the Twins, he will wear the label. 

 

He won't be allowed simple injuries like everyone else without being accused of fragility by outsiders. He is famous for it now. 

 

I follow Heyman, Rosenthal and Passan and this makes me guilty. 

 

This trade should not have been announced before the I's and T's were dotted and crossed. 

 

Whatever, the results of this soon to be announced solution, it'll be shame. 

 

[Squirrel]

It's Sunday

 

This trade was announced Tuesday Night.

 

I have joined Tony Clark, Scott Boras and Arte Moreno in the "this is ridiculous" chorus. 

 

The tragedy is a 21 year old pitcher by the name of Brusdar Graterol who has been type cast.  

 

If he goes to the Red Sox, he walks in the door with a label. 

If he goes to the Dodgers, he walks in the door with a label. 

If he stays with the Twins, he will wear the label. 

 

He won't be allowed simple injuries like everyone else without being accused of fragility by outsiders. He is famous for it now. 

 

I follow Heyman, Rosenthal and Passan and this makes me guilty. 

 

This trade should not have been announced before the I's and T's were dotted and crossed. 

 

Whatever, the results of this soon to be announced solution, it'll be shame. 

I don’t disagree. And yeah, who knows. But my comment was based on LaVelle’s very recent post that there has been a lot of movement this morning and an update would be coming soon. Said that Graterol and another piece would be outgoing, and Maeda and a little something else would be coming in. Don’t know to whom or from whom beyond Twins and Dodgers.

[Danchat]

Do the rules change during the season? Otherwise why couldn’t the Twins back out of the Dyson trade last year after reviewing his medical reports? They learned within a week he was damaged goods and needed surgery.

 

Chaim gets a good week to review medicals in February while teams at the trade deadline get 10 minutes to review medical reports?

I’m pretty sure Dyson’s medical were clean, and was in the midst of developing an injury when we acquired him. He had surgery 25 days after the trade, and after tossing 10.2 innings for us. Just seemed like bad luck.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

http://m.startribune.com/minnesota-twins-dodgers-red-sox-work-toward-finalizing-deal/567710582/?refresh=true

 

Two highlights:

 

“ As of last night, the Twins had added a second minor leaguer to the deal - a player outside their top ten prospects”

 

And

 

“ This also means that the chances that Brusdar Graterol remain a Twin are slim. Personally, I was surprised to see him on the mound yesterday amidst the turmoil surrounding the deal and the Red Sox concerns over his medical information. But he threw his bullpen session despite all of it.”

[Riverbrian]

 

I don’t disagree. And yeah, who knows. But my comment was based on LaVelle’s very recent post that there has been a lot of movement this morning and an update would be coming soon. Said that Graterol and another piece would be outgoing, and Maeda and a little something else would be coming in. Don’t know to whom or from whom beyond Twins and Dodgers.

 

I was just stating in my own way that "it's too late anyway". This can happen in 5 minutes or 2 years. The Red Sox have scarred this kid. It can happen soon as reported but we still got some melted ice cream here. 

 

I no longer want the kid subjected to the Boston Media and Fans. 

 

 

[Squirrel]

I was just stating in my own way that "it's too late anyway". This can happen in 5 minutes or 2 years. The Red Sox have scarred this kid. It can happen soon as reported but we still got some melted ice cream here.

 

I no longer want the kid subjected to the Boston Media and Fans.

From what I’ve read he won’t be landing in Boston. But, again, who knows

[jmlease1]

I agree with Gleeman: what could they have possibly seen on the medicals that changes Graterol's value so much that they're asking for another top 10 pick...yet they still want Graterol in the deal? That's the bit that makes no sense about this whole "medicals" bit. The reality is, the Red Sox got cold feet (probably because they've been getting hammered on this deal by almost everyone) and are using "medicals" as the excuse to try and redo the deal.

 

I would like Maeda, but I don't think Graterol plus anything significant is worth it. If they want to toss a flyer on there, well...ok? But that's about as far as I'd go. And I'm fine with working out the deal with the Dodgers on the side and if the Dodgers plus up their end, the Twins can do the same. But man, screw the BoSox.