Twins looking at Giles and Yates

[mendozaline]

 

I think Stroman and Giles together would require at least one of Lewis and Kiriloff and probably both. With Graterol out with an undiagnosed arm injury, I would assume he has zero trade value. A deal of Lewis/Larnich/Balovic/Duran might not be enough.

I don't think there is any chance that 2 top 10 prospects in all of baseball are going in the same deal for Stroman and Giles. I know Lewis and AK haven't exactly improved their stock to this point but it would absolutely blow my mind if that happened. I feel like it's one of the big two and spare parts or it's 2-3 high quality prospects and a lotto ticket. 

 

I would offer something like: Graterol, Rooker, Gordon, and Jeffers/Rortvedt. That might even be too much.

[nicksaviking]

 

Apparently the Twins and Yankees have looked in on packaging Giles and Stroman. I'd be very OK with it, if the price is right. One of the Twittereres suggested Graterol....Straight up? maybe...

I’d guess that Twitterer was a Twins fan?

[nicksaviking]

I don't think there is any chance that 2 top 10 prospects in all of baseball are going in the same deal for Stroman and Giles. I know Lewis and AK haven't exactly improved their stock to this point but it would absolutely blow my mind if that happened. I feel like it's one of the big two and spare parts or it's 2-3 high quality prospects and a lotto ticket.

 

I don’t think most scouts would say the Twins have two top ten prospects, and I’m certain they wouldn’t go by a publication to make their decision.

[Obsvr]

 

 

 

I would offer something like: Graterol, Rooker, Gordon, and Jeffers/Rortvedt. That might even be too much.

 

Zero chance they offer up a package like that.  Maybe one of the first three and maybe 1 of the second two at best.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

I think Stroman and Giles together would require at least one of Lewis and Kiriloff and probably both. 

 

Wow. I doubt it. Look at past trades to see what kind of guys this would take. One of our top 3-10 guys and 2 guys in that 10-20 range would do it. 

 

 

[dbminn]

 

Wow. I doubt it. Look at past trades to see what kind of guys this would take. One of our top 3-10 guys and 2 guys in that 10-20 range would do it. 

 

The Blue Jays need a lot of pitching, 1B, and OF. I propose:

 

Rooker, JDavis, Balazovic/Duran and Alcala. 

 

By WAR value...

 

Stroman and Giles are eligible for arbitration in 2020. Assume they put up similar numbers as they have so far in 2019: 3.2 WAR remainder of this year, 5.7 WAR in 2020. That's 8.9 WAR x $9M/WAR = approximately $80M. Salaries will be $8.5M for the rest of this year and maybe $25M in 2020 - let's say $35M total. That leaves $45M in excess value. One 50 FV position player and one 50 FV pitcher are estimated to be worth $49M. Add in a premium and I think the Twins could make the trade right now.

 

Balazovic, Duran and Rooker will all be ranked at 50 FV at the end of the season. Davis has some helium right now. Alcala can throw a 100 MPH, even if he hasn't developed all that much. 

 

* - a 50 Future Value player is defined as a solid starter in the major leagues.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don’t think most scouts would say the Twins have two top ten prospects, and I’m certain they wouldn’t go by a publication to make their decision.

No, the Jays probably don't have them both top ten but disregarding publications is pretty misleading and misses the point. We literally have no idea how the Jays (or literally any of the 30 MLB teams, including the Twins) honestly view any prospect. For all we know, the Jays have Kirilloff ahead of Lewis. Maybe they love them both. Maybe they hate them both. No one knows except the Jays.

 

What we do have is publications that do a generalized ranking of all prospects. Lewis is consensus top ten and Kirilloff is ranked 9 by MLB.com, 15 by BA, and 39 by BP (obviously because Gleeman hates the Twins).

 

Not consensus top ten for both but definitely highly ranked.

[nicksaviking]

Both are strong prospects, but neither are hitting great. My point is simply that Toronto would be terrible at negotiating if they allowed the Twins to value both of them as top ten prospects in negotiations considering both players current struggles.

[Thrylos]

 

Um, you realize that in the first sentence of the MLBTR piece, the link to LEN3's article was included, right?  They actually got to it faster than you did, and then wrote 700 words of analysis.  While MLBTR definitely starts from a source, moreso than attempting to "break" stories, they are hardly an aggregator.

 

I was not trying to compete with MLBTR as far as linking to LEN3's piece where they got their info.  My issue was linking to the MLBTR post, instead of the original post (LEN3's) that has more information.

 

And, yes, they are an aggregator of other people's news, other than their chats.

 

[IndianaTwin]

I don't get the "the Twins never do anything" argument.

 

First, I think it's unfair to compare 2016 and before to the present. Sure, the owner is the same and that matters a lot, but it's Falvey and Levine in the chairs now rather than their predecessors. 

 

Second, I'd love to have someone smarter than me (which means many of you) do a serious analysis of their transactions since coming on board and measure how many "wins" and "losses" they've had. I tend to be an optimist, but it seems to me like they've had a lot more wins than losses. And one can't quantify these, but it seems like they've also had plenty of "wins" in the "pass" category as well (Darvish, most of the relievers in last winter's class, as it turns out). 

 

Third, I don't know whether this is a legitimate way to quantify things, but I did a search for "traded" in MLB.com's list of July 2018 transactions. It showed up 52 times. Each trade needs two partners, so that's 104. Divide by 30 and you get that teams, on average, made about 3.5 trades. The Twins made seven. In 2017, there were 62 trades, so an average of just over 4 trades per team. The Twins made five, and remember that they seemed to spend much of 2017 in "analysis" mode. That is at least suggesting that it's possible that the Twins make more transactions than average, at least during July.

 

Fourth, in addition to making more than an average number of trades over the past two Julys, I'd also suggest that that in both seasons, they made the right type of trade for their context. If they've done that the past two years, what is to suggest that they won't do it again this year?

 

In addition, in this very unscientific study, it also seems worth noting that in 2017, 30 of the 62 trades happened on July 26 or later (and another 5 on the 24th). In 2018, 36 of the 52 trades happened on July 26 or later, including 23 (close to half) on the 30th and 31st alone. In both years, trades were made throughout the month, but it takes two to tango, and the reality is that over the past two years, 58 percent of the trades were made in the last six days of the month.

 

We don't know what effect not having waiver trades this year will make. We also can "make an offer they can't refuse," but that's pretty synonymous with "give up more than you need to," which doesn't seem to be this front office's mindset. But based on history, I'll be surprised if the team (read "pitching staff" doesn't look significantly different three weeks from Thursday.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Both are strong prospects, but neither are hitting great. My point is simply that Toronto would be terrible at negotiating if they allowed the Twins to value both of them as top ten prospects in negotiations considering both players current struggles.

Ah, if you're talking about preseason rankings versus in-season struggles that may have changed their rankings, I completely misunderstood your point. 

 

Yes, both have almost certainly dropped down lists due to recent performance.

[gunnarthor]

 

Wow. I doubt it. Look at past trades to see what kind of guys this would take. One of our top 3-10 guys and 2 guys in that 10-20 range would do it. 

Except in salary dump situations, which this isn't, what trades would you think would be comparable?

 

1.5 years of an ace and 1.5 years of an elite closer. Both instantly become our best starting pitcher and best bullpen arm. And you think a backend top 100 guy and two throw-ins would be enough? I'd love it if that were true but I doubt it. Chris Archer brought back a ransom. Stroman is arguably a better pitcher than Archer was although not years of control favored Archer a bit. The Astros traded Ken Giles, David Paulino and a prospect for Roberto Osuna who was at the time suspended for DV.

 

Last year, we traded Pressly for the Astros 10th and 15th best prospects. Do you think the Twins would have kicked in Gibson for someone like Cionel Perez, their #5 prospect? Gibby and Pressly had the same years of control as Giles/Stroman. That seems like a bad trade for the Twins and Storman/Giles are a lot better than Gibby/Pressly were.

[Mr. Brooks]

Except in salary dump situations, which this isn't, what trades would you think would be comparable?

 

1.5 years of an ace and 1.5 years of an elite closer. Both instantly become our best starting pitcher and best bullpen arm. And you think a backend top 100 guy and two throw-ins would be enough? I'd love it if that were true but I doubt it. Chris Archer brought back a ransom. Stroman is arguably a better pitcher than Archer was although not years of control favored Archer a bit. The Astros traded Ken Giles, David Paulino and a prospect for Roberto Osuna who was at the time suspended for DV.

 

Last year, we traded Pressly for the Astros 10th and 15th best prospects. Do you think the Twins would have kicked in Gibson for someone like Cionel Perez, their #5 prospect? Gibby and Pressly had the same years of control as Giles/Stroman. That seems like a bad trade for the Twins and Storman/Giles are a lot better than Gibby/Pressly were.

Stroman is not an ace.

[Thrylos]

 

Stroman is not an ace.

 

The best comparable to Stroman is Archer.  Not.quite.an.ace.

[Danchat]

 

The best comparable to Stroman is Archer.  Not.quite.an.ace.

Pre-2019 Archer, sure. But wow, he's had a awful season with a rough 5.49 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and even worse 5.91 FIP. But your description is fitting for Stroman.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Except in salary dump situations, which this isn't, what trades would you think would be comparable?

 

1.5 years of an ace and 1.5 years of an elite closer. Both instantly become our best starting pitcher and best bullpen arm. And you think a backend top 100 guy and two throw-ins would be enough? I'd love it if that were true but I doubt it. Chris Archer brought back a ransom. Stroman is arguably a better pitcher than Archer was although not years of control favored Archer a bit. The Astros traded Ken Giles, David Paulino and a prospect for Roberto Osuna who was at the time suspended for DV.

 

Last year, we traded Pressly for the Astros 10th and 15th best prospects. Do you think the Twins would have kicked in Gibson for someone like Cionel Perez, their #5 prospect? Gibby and Pressly had the same years of control as Giles/Stroman. That seems like a bad trade for the Twins and Storman/Giles are a lot better than Gibby/Pressly were.

“1.5 years of an ace” and then comparing Stroman to Gibson... Gibson is no “ace” either.

 

Gibson is a good comp. 2019, Perez is a better comp with recency bias. Clearly I’d take Stroman over either Gibson or Perez. Stroman would absolutely bolster the middle of the Twins rotation, not compete w/ Berrios for #1, let alone “ace” (definition of ace TBD).

 

Stroman

K% 18.6

Whip 1.26

FIP 3.81

 

Berrios

K% 21.6

Whip 1.11

FIP 3.83

 

Odorizzi

K% 26.8

Whip 1.12

FIP 3.59

 

Gibson

K% 23.6

Whip 1.26

FIP 4.05

 

Perez

K% 20.7

Whip 1.37

FIP 3.7

 

Giles would clearly be the best reliever on the team. Does his being a bit notorious reduce the price?

 

Giles

K% 43.4

Whip 1.0

FIP 1.49

 

Rogers

K% 31.9

Whip .98

FIP 2.77

 

Funny enough, Pressly would not be a clear cut upgrade over Rogers (but dang it’d be great to get him back, wouldn’t it?

 

Pressly

K% 31.3

Whip .78

FIP 2.97

 

I lost track of where I was going with this... oh yeah, Graterol is a heck of a prospect. Him plus a couple B/C prospects should get it done huh?

[David HK]

I think we've pretty much milked the cow dry as far as looking for in-house prospects to step up in relief roles. And Blake Parker is not the saviour we need, being the only piece added in the offseason.

 

Kimbrel had a bit of a rocky start, but that's to be expected after such a long layoff- now he's starting to look like the real deal. But I'm liking me some Will Smith. He could have a 2nd-half audition for a contract extension, and SF has major offensive woes, so they'd be looking for hitters, of which we have a surplus.

 

Go get him, Falvine. And maybe MadBum, too, for a rental.

[gunnarthor]

 

I lost track of where I was going with this... oh yeah, Graterol is a heck of a prospect. Him plus a couple B/C prospects should get it done huh?

Graterol is injured, out indefinitely. That's usually not good for trade value.

 

And the point remains, last year we would have screamed if we had traded Gibby/Pressly for Houston's #5, 10, 15 prospects. It would have been a bad trade for us. It's unlikely that Toronto would trade the superior package of Stroman/Giles for the Twins 5, 10, 15 prospects now, as suggested above.

[gunnarthor]

 

 

Stroman is not an ace.

Semantics. He's on pace for another 4-5ish WAR season, would be our best pitcher (although I'll listen on arguments on Berrios) and I'd trust him a lot more in the post-season than I'd trust Odorizzi. If you don't want to call him an ace, fine. Doesn't matter. He'd be a great fit.

[darin617]

Is this like when you gave your parents crazy ideas for Christmas and ended up getting socks & underwear?

[DocBauer]

NOT throwing cold water on potential moves, or this FO. I'm only offering up a couple things to consider.

 

1] From day ONE this FO has talked about building a system from the ground up, players, coaches, way of doing things, etc, to create a sustainable winning team/system.

 

They have also clearly stated they would make moves when the window of opportunity was available.

 

2] The FO's opinions/analytics thus far, have looked pretty smart. Witness Cron, Schoop, Pineda and Perez as examples. We might even toss Odorizzi in for this scenario.

 

Like it or not, bank it or not, they were actually proven pretty smart to not dive too deep in to the FA pool of RP available off season. Luck or the caveat it may be too early to say is debatable.

 

3] This FO has shown a willingness at times to eat contract dollars for a higher return.

 

My point is really rather direct. It's easy to toss out names and scenarios for a trade. But I don't believe this FO will make a trade for someone just to make a trade. If you really believe a change of scenery and Wes Johnson will help make a difference for Bumgarner or Greinke, GREAT! But does the FO see enough value? (I'm just using a couple examples here).

 

They may have their own version of Pressly this season to acquire, and it may not be a name we all know and jump at. Just how many frontline SP are actually available? What is their cost, if made so? Maybe they look at our rotation, and building depth with Smeltzer and Thorpe and feel the pen is the way to go since there isn't anyone available to make a real difference. Maybe they feel a guy like Kennedy is really smart for a small trade if they eat some contract and then bring in a solid pro like Watson. What if one of the BP arms we so easily dismiss from reports here on TD is a guy they really think they can work with?

 

I firmly believe this FO WILL make 1-3 additions. The window of opportunity is there and the depth in the system is there. I'm just saying the numbers and names may not be as easy to speculate as we all seem to think.

[nicksaviking]

Semantics. He's on pace for another 4-5ish WAR season, would be our best pitcher (although I'll listen on arguments on Berrios) and I'd trust him a lot more in the post-season than I'd trust Odorizzi. If you don't want to call him an ace, fine. Doesn't matter. He'd be a great fit.

I’d have some interest in Stroman, but come playoff time I don’t care about WAR, I care about keeping runs off the board, and I’m not going to trust a pitcher to do that in the post season against the Yankees and Astros if he can’t miss bats.

[Mr. Brooks]

Semantics. He's on pace for another 4-5ish WAR season, would be our best pitcher (although I'll listen on arguments on Berrios) and I'd trust him a lot more in the post-season than I'd trust Odorizzi. If you don't want to call him an ace, fine. Doesn't matter. He'd be a great fit.

He'd be a wonderful fit. I'd love them to get Stroman, as much for 2020 as this year. But let's not forget he's also got a few sub 2 WAR seasons mixed in as well, including 0.2 last year.

When we're discussing what it would take to acquire him, it's not just "semantics" to call him an ace, he's not an ace, and paying ace price would be a pretty big overpay, IMO.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Except in salary dump situations, which this isn't, what trades would you think would be comparable?

 

1.5 years of an ace and 1.5 years of an elite closer. Both instantly become our best starting pitcher and best bullpen arm. And you think a backend top 100 guy and two throw-ins would be enough? I'd love it if that were true but I doubt it. Chris Archer brought back a ransom. Stroman is arguably a better pitcher than Archer was although not years of control favored Archer a bit. The Astros traded Ken Giles, David Paulino and a prospect for Roberto Osuna who was at the time suspended for DV.

 

Last year, we traded Pressly for the Astros 10th and 15th best prospects. Do you think the Twins would have kicked in Gibson for someone like Cionel Perez, their #5 prospect? Gibby and Pressly had the same years of control as Giles/Stroman. That seems like a bad trade for the Twins and Storman/Giles are a lot better than Gibby/Pressly were.

 

Stroman isn't an ace... that's probably my biggest beef here. His peripherals scream regression for what that's worth... he does get an elite GB rate, which certainly helps things, but this isn't a high K guy. Personally, I think there are better starting options than Stroman. I'm not against getting him, but I'm not sure I'd fork out a huge prospect haul for him. If I'm going to do that, I'd go after Boyd or Grienke…. maybe even Thor who is having a down year. 

[GCTF]

 

Is this like when you gave your parents crazy ideas for Christmas and ended up getting socks & underwear?

We should be so lucky. Getting Phil Nevin was more like getting used crusty underwear.

[prouster]

come playoff time I don’t care about WAR, I care about keeping runs off the board.

I’m interested to know how you think pitching WAR works. Because keeping runs off the board more or less corresponds to greater WAR.

[USAFChief]

 

I’m interested to know how you think pitching WAR works. Because keeping runs off the board more or less corresponds to greater WAR.

Actually, in the case of fWAR, it corresponds to someone's opinion as to how many runs should or shouldn't have been kept off the board.

 

fWAR is calculated using FIP (with infield flies!) rather than actual runs allowed.

 

https://library.fangraphs.com/war/calculating-war-pitchers/

 

Whether that's useful in evaluating pitchers is open to debate. 

[twins1095]

 

“1.5 years of an ace” and then comparing Stroman to Gibson... Gibson is no “ace” either.

Gibson is a good comp. 2019, Perez is a better comp with recency bias. Clearly I’d take Stroman over either Gibson or Perez. Stroman would absolutely bolster the middle of the Twins rotation, not compete w/ Berrios for #1, let alone “ace” (definition of ace TBD).

Stroman
K% 18.6
Whip 1.26
FIP 3.81

Berrios
K% 21.6
Whip 1.11
FIP 3.83

Odorizzi
K% 26.8
Whip 1.12
FIP 3.59

Gibson
K% 23.6
Whip 1.26
FIP 4.05

Perez
K% 20.7
Whip 1.37
FIP 3.7

Giles would clearly be the best reliever on the team. Does his being a bit notorious reduce the price?

Giles
K% 43.4
Whip 1.0
FIP 1.49

Rogers
K% 31.9
Whip .98
FIP 2.77

Funny enough, Pressly would not be a clear cut upgrade over Rogers (but dang it’d be great to get him back, wouldn’t it?

Pressly
K% 31.3
Whip .78
FIP 2.97

I lost track of where I was going with this... oh yeah, Graterol is a heck of a prospect. Him plus a couple B/C prospects should get it done huh?

 

Best post on here in terms of grounding the argument.  

 

Would you give up a top 10 prospect in all of baseball for Kyle Gibson?  If not, what would you give up in our system for another Kyle Gibson level pitcher?  Or Stroman + what would pry a top 10 prospect from your team (although Lewis and Kirillof will likely drop in terms of next years rankings).   

 

Would Stroman + Giles be worth a top 10 prospect + to you?

 

Looking at past deals, most ace pitchers i.e. Sherzer, Santana, Grienke, Gerritt Cole, Justin Verlander etc.  did not command more than 1 top 50-70 guy + prospects outside the top 100.  

 

Giving a top 10-20 prospect from Stroman is a ludicrous overpay.

[Squirrel]

We should be so lucky. Getting Phil Nevin was more like getting used crusty underwear.

Okay, ish.

 

But I lol’d just the same.

[USAFChief]

 

We should be so lucky. Getting Phil Nevin was more like getting used crusty underwear.

 

"We are not amused."