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Everything posted by twins1095

  1. Kirilloff's hard hit rate and average exit velocity is above Cruz and just behind Buxton for 2nd best on the Twins. I think the Twins see the process over the current results and rightfully so. If he keeps smacking line drives like he has been....he's pretty quickly going to be hitting in the middle of the order. Arraez Donaldson Buxton Cruz Kirilloff Polanco Kepler Garver Simmons
  2. Fun fact: Kirilloff's hard hit percentage (63.2%) and average exit velocity (94.2 mph) is higher than Cruz's hard hit percentage (59%) and average exit velocity (93.9mph) and just behind Buxton's at 64.6% and 95 mp, but he's hitting .115. Classic.
  3. I think I hate Colome. I think I hate just about everything about this year’s team. I disagree with just about every Baldelli managerial move this year. I disagree with the Twins calling up these two bit scrubs over giving actual legit prospects a shot (the worst thing that happens is they play the same as all of these career minor leaguers). I hate prioritizing dart throws like Shoemaker and Happ (despite decent performance) over a guy like Dobnak and making him a long reliever (if we are going to make dart throws). Everything from top to bottom feels wrong.
  4. Well deserved. Guy is gonna be spraying balls in gaps for years.
  5. So remind me again why using your long reliever in this situation forcing you to use multiple 1 inning relievers 2-3 innings makes sense?
  6. Interesting to only have Dobnak go 1-inning, what's the point of him? I also don't really get prioritizing Shoemaker/Happ over Dobnak. Both have pretty much the same type of floors with less ceiling. Make one of the vets the long-reliever guy.
  7. Dobnak's had some pretty putrid BABIP luck. I wouldn't be too worried, it will even out.
  8. Thanks I was off by a decimal, but that's what I meant. I would guess it's some combination of colder weather and hitters needing time to fully get their timing down. I think it's informative to some degree when reacting to early season hitting struggles.
  9. Overall BABIP during the first two months of the season is .05-.09 lower than the BABIP during the final months of the season after that. I think that the lower BABIP on grounders in those figures last season (basically a first 2 month of the season sprint) and thus far this season has as much to do with that factor as anything else. Even if hitters BABIP on ground balls has gone down slightly, fewer hitters are trying to hit ground balls as they lift balls into the air. There is a higher BABIP on fly balls than ground balls... in the end it's a neutral factor. Again, unless you think the shift is the causal factor of the reason that players are trying to lift the ball in the air more often and create more extra base hits--it's not really a primary or significant determinant in the reason that the game has changed in the way that it has that many view is negative or produces boring baseball.
  10. What I would add to this discussion is that a lot of fans focus on the shift and other ways teams have tried to use data to better position fielders based on where hitters are more likely to hit the ball and labeled that as one of the primary determinants of baseball seemingly being three true outcome reliant. Throwing last years shortened season out for reasons I am happy to get into, increasing prevalence of shifting by teams hasn’t meaningfully changed league-wide BABIP. Theoretically, this is what shifting should impact the most. The reason that baseball feels the way it does is because of less balls put into play. This means less movement on the basis and more stationary action. Teams are reluctant to give up outs or baserunners or risk the chance of doing so—meaning there’s less sacrifice bunting, hit and running, productive out emphasis, or stealing bases. Players are reluctant to “waste” ABs trying to put balls in play with minimal high value contact or outcome potential. Instead, players focus on emphasizing trying to barrel balls in order to create extra base hits even with two strikes in the count. I’m not sure shifting seems to meaningfully impact outcomes when the ball is put into play over large sample sizes—for every ball you see that fielders get it appears there’s a ball that fielders don’t get because of the shift. Unless, you potentially think that because fielders shift...hitters see that and that’s the reason they are trying to make a certain type of contact that leads to less balls put into play—though I would argue that’s not really at all why they do. I just don’t think any regulation of shifts is anything other than shifting around deck chairs and doing something for the sake of doing something instead of actually doing something that would lead to meaningful or impactful changes in style of play.
  11. Buxton lost plenty of years to injury and no one had ABs in 2020. The reason I would have kept him around was the 25 SBs, 44 XBH, and 15% walk rate. Not many guys flash plus power potential, speed, and walk rate. He’s pretty much the type of prospect you should always keep around because of ceiling. I mean it’s not like his RC+’s of 120, 130, and 180 mean more than his 13 games stretch prior to injury of 103 We have plenty of low ceiling career minor league or borderline MLB ceiling prospects that we kept that we could have given up instead.
  12. Why would you not walk Baddoo? What advantage does not having a force out have especially when he's there hottest hitter and you have a bench player on a Tigers team next? I don't understand. I want to toot my own horn that I had Baddoo in my top 8 for Twins prospects 2 years ago. That's all I have to hang my hat on after this loss.
  13. How does that happen? Do we know what the injury is?
  14. Is Arraez okay or did they just take him out because of the blowout?
  15. I want to go on record because it's pretty clear. Dobnak is going to have a really strong season. The Twins infield defense and the changes in the ball will allow him to thrive. He has legit plus stuff, though many folks just focus on velocity. The vertical movement on his fastball is the best of any starter in the league by the metrics (99th percentile). Combined with plus command and secondary pitches that grade out to above average puts him in the category to be Marcus Stroman type pitcher.
  16. I vote re-tool. I would bring back Cruz. I would also bring back Odorizzi. I would let Rosario/Adrianza/Gonzalez/etc. walk. I think many have discussed the disappointment or inconsistency of many of the at bats this season. However, I think many have called out positivity behind many of the call-ups (Jeffers, Rooker, Kirillof, etc). I want the Twins to be more aggressive and more willing to call-up minor league players earlier than possible. I think the Twins likely have something with Jeffers/Rooker/Kirillof & Larnach at a minimum. I think it's possible players like Gordon/Lewis can contribute as well--and soon. I want the Twins to be aggressive next season in getting Rooker, Jeffers, and Kirilloff ABs as well as Gordon or others that you identify to take over Rosario/Cave/Adrianza/Marwin/Avila's ABs. I also want the Twins to try and be aggressive with Duran/Colina/Balazovic in trying to get them big league time--especially given that the Twins can seemingly feel pretty comfortable with the depth of arms that they have in place (Berrios, Maeda, Pineda, Odorrizi, Dobnak).
  17. Pitching Homer Bailey has less to do with expectations for him by the Twins and everything to do with allowing the Twins to stack their rotation in a way that lines up Maeda/Berrios/Pineda or Hill for the first playoff series.
  18. On the flip side, the extreme downward vertical movement on Dobnak's pitches makes me more confident that other teams aren't going to tee off and break games open with a HR against Dobnak... which is what I want in a playoff series. I'd be worried that Odorizzi, with his propensity to pitch at the top of the zone, if he isn't perfect... gives up a couple of bombas which we cannot afford.
  19. I am pretty confident in Dobnak's ability to develop into a pitcher of a similar caliber to Odorizzi, Pineda, and even Maeda (Maeda's peripheral's have always been good, but he hasn't always been as good as this season). His fastball has the most vertical movement out of any fastball in the MLB. He also generally has really strong control, though we say that control fade a little bit during his struggles--which was the main difference for him. I would argue that his control issues were due to a recent change in fastball grip that he has made that has given him even MORE movement... he's having trouble learning to control the movement... however long-term I think it's still a good thing. I understand that in this short of a season, with the SP depth that the Twins have, Dobnak may not be someone who is a playoff starter. However, I do really think that Dobnak is definitely a rotation piece going forward that has the potential to even develop into a solid #3 or maybe even touch higher than that in his best seasons. He is reliant on his defense though and the BABIP gods more-so than most pitchers these days. That is to say that in a modern-MLB where the philosophy is all about trying to control as many outcomes as possible... Dobnak has less control over his own outcomes than most pitchers. I think this will lead to some games or periods where he struggles, however it shouldn't always be a concern if his struggles consist of infield hits, bloopers, and seeing eye singles.
  20. This is just not at all true in terms of a comparison to Arraez. It's actually one of the worst takes I've seen here in awhile. Prior to his hamate bone injury, Kirilloff had 71 XBH in 131 games including 7 triples and 20 HRs. He also really doesn't walk a lot, his BB% in the minors has been between 4-8%. He doesn't strike out a lot either, his strikeout rate has been in the mid-teen percentage wise. If you're looking for a comparable based on that it's Eddie Rosario. I would actually compare Kirilloff a lot to a young Eddie Rosario who came up and hit 18 2Bs, 15 3Bs (led the league), and 13 HRs in 122 games. Basically, Rosario had gap power that eventually developed into HR power. Or I guess Joe Mauer if you want to go there. Luis Arraez has singles power and is a really patient hitter. That's not Kirilloff at all. Like at all at all.
  21. Kirilloff played his last season less than a year removed from a hamate bone--an injury notoriously known for sapping power for a year post-surgery. This injury generally does not have a long-term effect on power potential, but in virtually all cases has a significant short-term effect even after the injury is healed and the player has returned to play. Here's an article: https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/5/2/5672834/hamate-fractures-and-power-in-the-pitchfx-era Here's the conclusion: Overall, it appears that with time, player's who succumb to a hamate injury will find themselves back to previous power numbers upon their return to play, though it will probably take roughly a full season of at bats to do so. Of course a number of other factors could predispose a player to not bounce back quite as quickly or as robustly—age of injury, previous injury history, and even the time it took for correct diagnosis and treatment approach all play potential roles—but compared to other upper extremity injuries, the outlook for a full return to health and hitting power with the hamate fracture is generally promising. Kirilloff's low-power numbers are not only not surprising, but expected. In addition, if you look at his second half splits versus his first half splits as he got further removed from the surgery... predictably his power numbers really began to improve. Kirlloff, as a hitter, is a couple of magnitudes better than Jeffers.
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