twins1095

Right. I'm not disagreeing, I'm just saying that generally Buxton needs less times on base to produce the amount of runs compared to other players who need higher slash lines to produce the same amount of runs. There's some context to be had too. Buxton's struggled a bunch this season at the plate I'm not arguing that, but the sample size is small and most of it comes through a stretch in which injuries/etc further give reason to explain, but not excuse, the poor slash. Last year Buxton started out 4-49 in his first 13 games for a slash line of .082-.135-.257 with 1 run - 2 doubles - 0 3B - 0 HR - 0 RBI - 1 SB - 2 BB - 24 K's (~10% of the season) In the final 120 games Buxton played and 410 ABs (~90% of the season) for a slash line of .275/.335/.785 - 9 BB% - 30K% with 68 runs - 12 2B - 6 3B - 16 HR - 51 RBI - 28 SB 162 game pace for that production is: 90 runs - 16 2B - 8 3B - 21 HR - 68 RBI - 37 SB __________________________________________________________________________ I would argue that volume season numbers do matter, but should be taken with context. For 90% of Buxton's season (and consistently over a 122 game stretch) Buxton performed like the 2nd stat line--that's a lot of production from the bottom of the order. If you told me that a 9/10 times you're getting a player with the bottom line with the kind of defense Buxton plays I'm ecstatic. Even with the struggles to begin the year and the inconsistency, etc. Buxton's WAR numbers put him, depending on which calculation, somewhere in the top 15-25 position players from a value standpoint. Yes, a lot of that comes from his defense...Yes he's streaky...Yes he strikes out too much...Yes he isn't likely to ever develop into the hitter he was projected to have the potential to be. But with all of those things in mind, none of those very valid criticisms seem to bar him from being a borderline elite value player. _________________________________________________________________________ I think we need to take a longer view here. I understand all of the frustrations, especially as a hitter and in terms of health consistency and especially viewed within the context of what Buxton could be if some of these inconsistencies were fixed. But I think this lens prevents appreciation of what Buxton actually is despite a current track that suggests he's going to leave some potential and maybe quite a bit of potential on the table. But even leaving that on the table, Buxton is still tracking towards a player who, with what he does have, can be a top 20 or borderline top 20 position player in terms of positive value to a team. Yes, there's a lot of potential that is being left on the table, but there's also a lot there...even as a hitter.

It does tell a relatively accurate story, but I think it's important to note that Buxton is more efficient with his opportunities on base than other guys--maybe more so than any player on the bases. He's gonna pick up more bases and ultimately score more runs than other guys which means he doesn't need to be on base as much to ultimately produce the same amount of runs as other guys. So the slash line does tell an accurate story, but there's a little more value there to that slash line than meets the eye because of how efficient and productive he is when on base.

I like it. I was hesitant to use Kubel because of the way his career turned out and wanted to use a more positive comparision of what production could like *something* like at the MLB level if Kirrilloff continues to perform--I use something loosely as Morneau is a lofty comparision, but I think there are some general similarities there in the types of ways both players hitting styles work and the kinds of things they look to do to be successful. I guess on this board pre-injury Jason Kubel is about as high of praise as you can receive though, sometimes I forget where I am The biggest difference I see between the two is Kubel's 9.7 BB% and 11.3 K% compared to Kirrilloff's 4.3 BB% and 21.1 K%. The difference may slightly be the results of a different age in hitting with different focuses and less negativity towards strikeout's, but Kubel's average/power toolset combined with his low strikeout totals and good walk rate was why he was the second-coming pre-injury. That's an almost perfect hitter. I guess you can't have everything in a comparision so I still feel it's as good as any, especially in trying to compare Kirrilloff to former prospects that have moved through the Twins system--but I do think the differences in BB%/K% profiles do to some degree make me want to put on the pre-injury Kubel hype train. I do like that they are both coming off about 50 games of experience in rookie ball and entering their first season of A ball at the same age 20 season. Although while I say that and go back and check Kirilloff's total's thus far, I am greeted with a 3-4 3 run, 1 3B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 0 strikeout performance by Kirilloff today--so maybe I should just shut up now . Kubel's A Season Per 162 Games (115 games): Slash: .321-.380 - 501 -. 901 PGP: 85 runs -36 2Bs - 6 3Bs - 24 HRs - 97 RBI Kirilloff A Season Per 162 Games (30 games): Slash: .317-.354-.618-.974 PGP: 97 runs - 70 2B - 16 3B - 33 HR - 157 RBIs 119 XBH and 157 RBIs!!!! ______________________________________________________________________ Of course, Kubel went on to have a 22 year old season in AA/AAA 2 years later playing 127 games with: Slash: .352-.414-.590-1.004 - 10.8 BB% 12,1K% Numbers: 96 runs - 42 2B - 4 3B - 22 HR - 100 RBI - and even 16 SB for his own measure. Per 162/pace: 123 runs - 54 2B - 5 3B - 28 HR - 128 RBI - 20 SB ____________________________________________________________________ It's still a little painful to see the kind of player Kubel could have been pre-leg injury. So yeah, overall the loose comparisons between the natural power in their swings that allow thing to them to hit somewhere close to 30 homers and a ridiculous amount of doubles and triples without sacrificing areas of their swing to generate that power enabling them to be able to maintain a .300+ average. The pessimist in me still can't get past the differences in their BB%/KK% profiles though. Kubel's above average walk rate combined with his borderline elite strikeout percentage which offers/offered a much stronger and more secure platform to launch the rest of the hit tool at higher levels and at the major league level. So I guess I agree that Kubel and Kirilloff seem to have a chance to operate similarily with the bat once contact is made, but I think different levels of plate approaches keep Kirilloff from being on Kubel pre-injury level yet _____________________________________________________________________ Thinking out loud: Are there any comparables we can think of for a guy with a 5-7 BB% and 20ish K%? I checked the 2017 HR leaders list and there actually are some closer possible comparables than I thought there would be: 1. Jose Abreu--156g - 95 runs - 43 2B - 6 3B - 33 HRs - 102 RBI -- .304/,354/.906 -- 5.2 BB% - 17.6 K% - 4.2 WAR 2. Jonathon Schoop -- 160g - 92 runs - 35 2B - 32 HRs - 105 RBI -- .293/.338/.841 - 5.2 BB% - 21 K% 0 3.8 WAR 3. Ryan Zimmerman -- 144g - 90 runs - 33 2B - 36 HR - 108 RBI -- .303/.358/.931 -- 7.6 BB% - 21.9 K% - 3.3 WAR 4. Gary Sanchez -- 122g - 20 2B - 33 HR - 90 RBI -- .280/.345/.876 -- 7.5 BB% - 23 K% - 4.4 WAR 5. Eddie Rosario -- 151g - 79 runs - 33 2B - 27 HR - 78 RBI -- .290/.328/.835 -- 5.9BB% - 18K% -- 2.5 WAR ________________________________________________________________________ So if the power, contact, and hit skills are true and continue to play at a higher levels ... Jose Abreu seems like somewhat close to what we can think of a best possible scenario for Kirilloff's future projection. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/abreujo02.shtml

There's plenty of time this thinking leads to the bullpen giving up runs coming in cold with men on base. Berrios wanted this inning bad you saw how animated he was. He was calling for that inning even when it was tied.

Not a fan of Molly taking Berrios out here. Berrios wanted it and has been dealing. That ball drifted a little inside in an at bat in which Berrios was ahead after striking out the first batter. Especially in a 3 run game. Guess he doesn't wanna have Berrios go from the stretch--admittedly he's a worse pitcher from the stretch.

Are we talking A+ or AA? Lewis (19 -- 20 in June) and Kirillof (20 -- 21 in Nov) at AA this quickly must be more than the Twins could even expect. Both guys could get 100 games and if the success continues, start at AAA sometime early in the 2019-20 season. Do you see the Twins moving Wade up to AAA when these two are moved up to AA?

I actually just made a post about him. He's been my guy for a year plus or now. I'm extremely high on guys that can command a plate appearance, get on base, and make contact in the way he's been able to with almost shocking consistency in his numbers at every level so far. He's gonna fly under the radar and he has and a lack of skillset with a potential superstar ceiling is gonna keep him from being talked about, but I will really be surprised if he doesn't outperform the #4 OF monicker given to him. Look at the career Grossman's been able to carve out for himself with this same type of trait as his most elite skill. This is despite Grossman being below average on the base paths and not being able to field a position positively. Grossman has even less of a hit tool than Wade has shown at similar levels and even if the hit tool is similar, Wade packages it with much fewer strikeouts, plus speed, positive baserunning value, and arguably plus defense at any OF position. If Wade is a Grossman clone with the bat, but has a bigger package with the speed, defense, and more contact...I can't see how that skillset doesn't play up even further than Grossman has been able to make it do. Further, in a modern MLB with rising strikeout numbers, fewer guys being able to hit for average, and even get on base. Wade's skillset is one that many teams are going to desperately try and seek and one that's a relatively scarce in the current market. Put it this way, there's tons of guys who can hit 20 HRs and 20-25 XBH to a degree that's never been seen before in the MLB. There was a time when this skillset was scarce and guys who could offer this were extremely sought after. Now 40 HR guys struggle to get signed and have to sign short term prove it deals for low AAVs (Logan Morrison). Modern MLB teams, the Twins included, are full of guys that can hit 40-50 extra bases and drive in tons of runs--but what they lack are guys that can get on base at somewhere close to a .380-.400 clip and also have speed. Kepler, Rosario, Sano, Dozier, and even Buxton if he returns to last year's numbers or basically the heart of the Twins lineup are all going to go for 40+ extra base hits...they're stuck throwing Mauer out in the leadoff spot or underutilizing Dozier's power. This is a skillset that the Twins and many teams want and Wade provides. The pitching will get tougher as Wade goes to AAA and the majors, but BB% numbers and the ability to command an at bat skill that Wade provides should allow him to continue to steadily provide a .275-.295 average and .370-.400 OBP. This ability along with speed to maximize bases while on base should allow Wade to be an extremely valuable player for a team even if he only hits 25 doubles, 4-5 triples, 10 HRs, and 15 SBs...which seems to be pretty much his floor in my eyes. Wade might not have a high ceiling or even a ceiling much higher than that (think 30 doubles, 5 3Bs, 15 HRs, 15 SBs), but he's gonna get on base a TON and score a TON of runs. You can't build your team around him, but adding him to a lineup with run producers in place--he's the perfect asset to maximize your run producers skillsets. That's all Wade is and isn't and I can't see him really being more or less than a guy who puts up those kinds of numbers--he might even be closer to the floor I listed. He's gonna help a team out big time.

I definitely agree on the BB%, getting that walk rate from ~6 range to the 8-10 range would be big for him. I do agree to that he's riding a high BABIP and that he's not gonna keep performing like this through the rest of the season--110+ XBH and 155+ RBIs per 162 games is a ridiculous pace. (If he does we might have the future GOAT on our hands). But I will push back a little bit on the BABIP measure, it's likely that he is operating with some luck, but power hitters who hit the ball as hard as he seemingly does and get a ton of XBH do carry higher BABIP's than the league average. Just for comparision some of the other names thrown around in threads trying to compare his development to--Oswaldo Arica, Jason Kubel, Miguel Sano, Justin Morneau, even Kennys Vargas--all of these are power hitting prospects that have developed through the Twins system over the previous years. All of these carries BABIP's in the mid-300's...especially at the lower level. If Kirillof is near these guys level in terms of a power prospect, carrying a BABIP in the .320-.360 range, again especially at the lower levels of the minors, wouldn't be by any means out of the norm. Kirillof's BABIP in rookie ball was .328 in 55 games, while this year its at .348...84 games through his minor league career Kirillof is carrying a BABIP of about .335. That's even towards the lower end of the BABIP's some of those power prospects carrying for longer stretches of time in the (especially in the low) minors. Now we'll see if Kirillof develops on the level that many of those prospects did, but if he is the kind of guy that early returns are trending him towards...we're talking about a guy who BABIP's below .315 or .320 probably mean he's going through periods of bad luck as opposed to fortune despite that number being well above the league average of .300. We'll see and again I fully expect regression, but again power prospects (Mike Trout's BABIP was closer to .400 then .350 in the minors. Bryce Harper's was about .340. Even Eddie Rosario was in the .320-.330 range with seasons well above that) I'm not comparing Kirillof to Harper or Trout, but important context when understanding his BABIP likely means expecting it to be .320 or .330 plus. Further, especially for a guy like Kirillof that uses all fields well and lets his natural power carry the ball to the entire field (2018: 39 pull - 31 center - 30 opposite field Rookie: 41 pull - 19 center - 40 opposite field) With that kind of approach, one would expect less at bats in which Kirillof gets himself out by trying to pull a ball on the outside part of the plate or something such as that. This is one of the bigger positive indicators in my mind that Kirillof will not only hit for power, but should also hit for a decent average. I expect the 85 2B + 3B pace per 162 to come down, but probably in exchange for singles more often than outs. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see him finish .330ish+ in the BABIP department. ______________________________________________________________________________________ He currently has 22 doubles, 3 3Bs, 12 HRs, 60 rbi's, .334 BABIP in 84 career minor league games (23 hr, 42 2B, 5 3B, 116 RBI pace). I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him finish at per game production levels similar to that. The biggest thing for me is that I'd like to see in the BB%, at about 5.8% this year and about 4.8% his initial stint in rookie ball. He seems to swing away and it hasn't at all hurt him yet--especially with his willingness to use all parts of the field. But at higher levels this seemingly could hurt him if he doesn't increase this rate. I do believe to some extent this metric and the type of approach at the plate that a high BB% or low BB% indicates is something that either a player has or doesn't. I don't think there are many players that go from one extreme to the other. Kirillof isn't Rosario walk avoidant levels, but he isn't all that far off. I'm not sure he'll ever be a guy that has an above average BB% nearing or above 10%, but hopefully he can get to 7 or 8% which should indicate enough of a certain type of approach at the plate that won't negatively effect him at higher levels. ____________________________________________________________________________________ Other than that small tweak, I can't state enough how much I like what I see and how much I think Twins fans should be positive about this guy. His success at A ball, if it continues, suggests that the Twins, if they want, could choose to move him up a level or two to A+ or AA to see how he handles it during the second half of this year. In my opinion orginazations should give players as much as they can chew especially if they haven't yet shown they can't handle it. If they continue to show they can handle higher levels of competition at a younger age than expected, than that bodes extremely well from them as a prospect. If they don't, well I think it's good for hitters to know their weaknesses that can be exploited at higher leves as early as possible. I don't think a little adversity is harmful negatively on a long-term basis, this does depend a little bit on the makeup of the prospect, but Kirilloff to me in interviews I've read shows a really mature demeanour and one of his touted strengths is his baseball IQ. I hope Kirilloff gets a chance at AA should his success continue, even it's just 10, 15, or 20 games near the end of the season. This should allow him to start next season at AA and put him in really good company and on a really good trend towards future major league success. Now with that being said, it's hard to remember that Kirilloff is only 20 years old, with only 29 games out of rookie ball coming off a Tommy John injury and a year away from competitive baseball. I would understand the orginization being careful and cautious with him. But I would argue that until he gives you a reason to be this way then you're envisioning things in your head that might not and probably aren't even there. __________________________________________________________________________________________ Overall, I couldn't be more excited that the Twins have seemingly hit on a big natural power bat who's power comes not from launch angle changes or approach switches to cheat and pull more balls, but naturally through driving the ball where it's pitched. I think that's an extremely strong skillset and formula to success at higher levels and eventually the majors. The Twins are going to have some really interesting orginzational decisions on their hands over the next 2-3 years. I think both Kirilloff and Lamonte Wade are going to be big-time players that have a major league skillset that the team is really intigued with having in their lineup. Where these guys fit in with Rosario, Kepler, and Buxton I'm not sure. I think there's room for both if you want to get creative with Rosario at DH, Kirillof at 1st, and Wade in LF. But I'm also not sure the Twins will be comfortable with Sano at 3rd long-term--if not for his defensive issues which I personally think are overblown, but because of his inability to stay healthy both playing in the field and hitting over a full-season. If that's the case, then Kepler (or possibly Rosario) could be an extremely interesting trade candidate that could fetch a pretty good return on a future position of need. _________________________________________________________________________________________ Regardless, I haven't been this excited for a Twins prospect group since Berrios/Buxton/Sano/Polanco/Rosario/Kepler were all in this position of being 1-2-3 years away from the majors. It's a testament to the Twins drafting and development that they've been able to stack groups of prospects of this kind of talent back to back in the way that they have. Lewis, Kirilloff, Gordon, Wade, Romero, Gonsalves, Graterol just might be as impactful if not more as the above group has turned out to be.

That's really encouraging. It seems the power is real and an advanced hitting approach developed from a young age suggests he drives the ball with power to all fields and doesn't rely on trying to pull everything over the fence. Maybe won't hit as many HRs as he could if he tried to pull everything, but he'll get lots of XBH, a higher average, and plenty of HRs too. Maybe Justin Morneau could be a similar comp? Too lofty to hope for, but in terms of their styles. Morneau's average 162 game stretch was: .280-.350-.830 37 2B - 2 3B - 26 HR - 103 RBIs Some positionality differences and such, but Morneau was a guy with big time natural power who never really gave up on driving the ball to left-right center and using all parts of the field. Topped out around 30 HRs though had the potential for more...tons of XBH and generally Morneau hit for a pretty nice average...he certainly developed himself into a guy that was able to at least.

Insane numbers for Kirilloff season-wide. Season-wide slash: .303/.344/.915 Pace Per 162: 85 runs - 73 2B - 11 3B - 28 HR -150 rbi What an amazing first 29 games for the guy!! Playing at that high of a level for about 20% of a minor league season is seriously impressive! It would be extremely hard to keep that pace up for an entire season, but 20 XBH, 27RBIs, and a +.300 batting average in 29 games is crazy good! You're right, he started slow too, 1 for his first 12! Since then (26 games), he's hitting: Slash line: .327-.371-.997 Per 162: 94 runs - 81 2Bs - 12 3B - 32 HR - 168 RBI It's extremely hard to be over an RBI a game for an entire month and Kirillof accomplished that (April 9 - May 14). I love how he has natural power too, he's not a huge pull guy or anything like that...his hit chart is a pretty even spread across all fields and he can go deep left-center/going the other way. Should mean tons of positive things for him. ________________________________________________________________________________ He keeps anything close to this up for the rest of the season and Royce Lewis might have to watch out for the best position prospect moniker, positionality value be damned! ________________________________________________________________________________ Really really impressed with the numbers our top guys are putting up universally across the board--Lewis, Romero, Gonsalves, Gordon, Kirillof, Graterol, Badoo are all doing big things across various levels in the Twins system! Not sure I've remembered this many guys with this kind of talent all going this well at once before. (With apologies to Javier, Rooker, Enlow...but you can't have everything)

I'm worried about Rooker, but the sample size is small and I'm not sure he's been quite as bad as the numbers appear--he was 0-11 with 7 K's his first 3 games, but has been marginally better since then. He's realistically within a couple week hot streak away of salvaging a respectable season. In those 31 games his slash is .240/.280/.670 and his strikeout to walk ratio is 33/6 K/BB. A strikeout a game is a little on the high side, but it feels a lot better than 40 in 34. Further, a 162 game pace for those 31 games would give him a game production projection of about 65 runs - 37 2B - 5 3B - 16 HR - 65 rbi. I'm most concerned about the drop in walk rate, I doubt the power is gone and he's hitting a decent number of extra base hits, but I'm not sure where the approach went. Hopefully he has a big second half. ___________________________________________________________________ I like Badoo's approach, I'm generally a fan of that kind of approach. I think there's value in making pitchers work, getting them deep into counts, and getting more opportunities for a mistake instead of swinging at a pitch that isn't the pitch you're looking for when you've got strikes to play with. High strikeout totals can be worrying, but context matters--if the strikeout totals are a result of going deep into counts and he strikes out after 5-6-7 pitches I'm fine with that. More often than not those kind of ABs are leading to a walk, a hitter's pitch to hit, and there's value to making a pitcher throw a lot of pitchers both for your own ability to hit a pitcher, but also for your teammates. So, not all strikeouts are created equal. I'm wondering where the extra base hit power has gone. For a guy that young and raw I'm not expecting a ton of home runs even if the projection is there to add some as he matures, but it would be nice to see him barrelling more balls and putting them in the gaps. After having 19 2Bs, 5 3Bs, and 4 HRs in just 53 games at Rookie Ball...there's some more there. He's getting on base a ton 22.6% walk rate and scoring almost a run per game and on pace to steal 40+ bases. Crazy that almost 54% of his plate appearances right now are ending in a strikeout or a walk. I'm sure that will normalize somewhere less to the extremes on both cases, but he's now drawn 82 walks in 118 games (16.6 BB%)--the eye is there. I don't think you can coach a guy out of that really if he likes to take pitches and work counts. Cool player. Excited to see what happens.

Wow, 6-2 240 is about as good as you can hope for in terms of build for projecting a guy who's gonna be able to pitch a bunch of innings. I try and keep tabs on prospects, but this guy has seemingly come out of nowhere for me which makes it even better. If he's able to stay healthy and continue to pitch like he has through the all-star break...does he get a shot at AA as the season closes? Or do the Twins shut him down to limit innings as he only pitched 40 innings in 2017? Fernando Romero track coming back from injury? A+ if he continues to light it up and after 10 or so more starts/50 innings at A? Innings cap at 100ish? The Berrios track was 103 innings at A his age 19 season--but he also struggled a little bit at A. His age 20 season he went A+, AA, cup of coffee AAA. Cautious this season? Aggressive next? Crazy to think that if they so choose and this success continues, he could probably handle a few AA starts to end the year.(And then from there it's majors watch at just 20) But that's just me wanting to see him up with the Twins as early as possible. __________________________________________________________________ I'm impressed with the control for someone as young as he is and will be watching to see if that continues. How's the movement on his FB, obviously when we're talking 100+ we're talking icing on the cake, but if he throws that hard with any kind of movement--wow. Or is that kind of thing where it flattens out at when he's touching 99-101 and when he's at 95-98 it's got a little bit more movement to it. What's his best secondary pitch? Can he control it yet? __________________________________________________________________ Maybe the track record isn't quite there to put him #2/#3 or even argue for why he's the best the Twins have yet, but if he stays healthy it's hard to imagine him not.

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/29814-let’s-talk-mitch-garver/ I wrote a post/article breaking down Garver the other day as well--I'm also interested in him and think there's a little bit there...although there's also some work needed. Mods feel free to merge either way or merge my thread into here. I'm all about generating discussion and don't care how that happens.

Really like Wade...big fan of guys with his kind of approach and command of an at bat. Those kind of guys usually outperform whatever their "tools" are. He's gonna get on base a lot, not chase and get himself out, and generally swing at pitches and be in counts that put him in favorable positions. If he's got anything more in his bat than Grossman and can field his position even at an average level there's a solid amount of value to that player. With Kepler, Buxton, Rosario I'm not sure exactly where he fits in the lineup, but he's a guy I wouldn't be surprised to see carve out a better than expected career. 4th outfielder floor.

Question -- Romero struggled with his command a little last night. Also one difference I noticed was that he was throwing a breaking ball that had a downward movement a lot more...was that his change-up or was his slider not moving east-west as much as it was in previous starts? He seemed to mostly use his fastball and something slower than that that moved mostly north and south... Anyone have any further thoughts on this?

It is a little disappointing. Speed and value created by speed running the bases covers a lot more than just SB numbers. If Gordon consistently uses his speed to create value on the base paths by taking as many extra bases as possible and is efficient with his movements in terms of doing things like going from 1st to 3rd, 2nd to home, scoring from 1st on extra base hits, taking extra bases on deep fly balls, etc. that creates a ton of positive value too. Gordon has better raw speed than Dozier, but to me, especially early Dozier was a great poster boy for this. He's never really stolen more than 20 bases, but he was one of the most efficient baserunners and created positive baserunning value near the league leaders because of his ability to take really efficient lines and awareness/baseball IQ to continually take extra bases and make the most of every time he was on base. Aside from batting leadoff, this skillset is a big reason why Dozier has been able to score as many runs as he has. If Gordon can steal 20 bases and create positive base-running value by continually making high IQ plays when on base and being really aggressive at taking extra bases consistently whenever an opportunity....I'd be pretty happy with that. I'm not saying what I want to say as concisely as I want to, but I hope you get the gist of what I'm trying to say. I can't speak to whether Gordin has this type of feel for running the bases, but that skillset and speed playing in that manner is more important to me than 20 SBs or 30 SBs.

I think you can acknowledge weak strike zones and the frustration that might cause and in the last 3 or 4 starts I've tuned in there's been a lot of interesting strike zones, while also acknowledging how Berrios has to learn to overcome that and change to those zones, not unravel, etc. 5-10 pitches a game that go one way or another can be 3, 4, 5 extra base-runners or extra outs which can be a multiple run difference. Now this is a little bit extreme, but completely denying this from being true is denying a reality. However, this factor goes both ways and is something that all teams and pitchers deal with...but it undeniably can affect a game and it can affect a game in a big way. Berrios struggles with command at times--yes this is true. However it seems to me, especially this year, when he's struggling command he's usually not missing by much. Now maybe Berrios needs to stop trying to make perfect pitches and attack the zone more, maybe he needs to do a bunch of things...it almost seems that Berrios is so confident in his ability to work on the blacks of the plate that he puts himself in those situations. But yes Berrios struggles with command at times, especially when pitching from the stretch with runners on. He gets himself in situations where his "pitcher's pitch" doesn't get called, base-runners get on, he loses composure and innings unravel and he gets even more frustrated. Acknowledging all of this isn't making excuses for Berrios nor is it saying that he doesn't have to figure out how to get better in these scenarios. He does and he'll learn. The margin of error in the MLB is extremely fine and Berrios is finding that out the hard way. A lot of this is just an experience thing that will get better with time.

I think you gotta ride Dozier, he's got a history of production that's too great to do anything else. If this were a situation where you had a Jorge Polanco or Eduardo Escobar pushing at Dozier's heels or something similar than I could potentially see a switch if the slump were to continue. I just can't see a situation where swapping Dozier's offensive production ceiling for an Adrianza or Petit bat in the lineup would be worth it...even if there's an immediate, albeit marginal jump in production. Dozier's in the middle of a big-time slump (maybe he just broke out of it), but I'd be surprised if this bottom is his new baseline over a long season. There are lots of ups and downs for players over the course of a season and even if Dozier is slipping, which is possible, I highly doubt that his new baseline is below the production that Pettit or other options would provide. I think we're talking about Dozier (at least before yesterday) in the midst of the bottom of a low cycle and it seems a longer-view approach would be more appropriate. With that being said, if Dozier has slipped and I'm not saying it isn't possible that he has, talks about moving him down in the lineup are definitely fair play. Further, hey on the bright side Dozier falling off would be a nice way to make it easy to get rid of him and let Polanco/Gordon or whoever get a shot. _________________________________________________________________________________ As we stand today and this does hide how inconsistent Dozier's season has been (basically a hot streak and a long cold streak) he's on pace for just under 30 doubles and HRs, 5 triples, 70 RBIs, and 98 runs. He's walking less in the past, but he's also only on pace for 127 strikeouts which is actually lower than his career average. With that being said, his OPS is way down and his production has definitely dropped. I'm just not sure it's dropped below Pettitt's level.

Did Buxton not hit .253 last year? Since when did becoming Kris Bryant, Bryce Harper, or Mike Trout be come the barometer of an impactful player. Buxton struggles to make consistent contact and is probably always going to struggle to do so. Further, injuries have pretty consistently kept him from being able to really get in a rhythm playing long stretches of games healthily--which obviously isn't a positive. Buxton had a similar type slump in his first 50-80 ABs last year and hit pretty close to .270 for the remaining 90% of the season. Buxton's gonna be a streaky hitter who struggles to hit for a high average, strikes out a lot, and because of this go through periods where he slumps hard. That doesn't mean that over a full 162 game season he isn't going to be a productive player. His speed and feel for base-running and his ability to drive balls and find gaps when he does make contact mean that he makes a bunch of positive plays too. His 162 game pace last year put him at 80 runs, 17 2Bs, 7 3Bs, 19 HRs, 60 RBIs, 35 SBs. I use the 162 game pace to just show his impact on a per game basis in a similar way to how the NBA lists player stats as 25 points per game/8 assists per game/etc. and players are judged that way even if they only play 65 games. (Not discounting that health is a concern) Those numbers were largely from hitting near the bottom of the order too. Is that Mike Trout? No, but that level of offensive production combined with the value his defense brings to a team put him somewhere between a top 15 and top 25 player in terms of WAR for position players. I'll take a guy with that kind of impact even with his limitations and the fact that he isn't "Mike Trout or Bryce Harper". __________________________________________________________________________________ I'm pretty excited we have a guy, who's only 24, on the team that can impact the game at that high of a level in his own way.

I'm gonna push back here a little bit. I think there's a tendency to penalize players for developing at the Major League level rather than in the minors. Berrios is almost penalized for dominating his peers and reaching the MLB at a time when his peers were at AA or such. It's obvious that Berrios does have some flaws, but it's also obvious that he had nothing left to prove at the minor league level. He's been inconsistent for sure, but I'm not sure growing pains and the real-time process of developing a more mature approach and the consistency it takes at the MLB level to be an "ace" and not just have "ace" stuff is really anything to be alarmed by. Especially towards a guy that at 23 just went 14-8 with a 3.8 era, striking out a batter an inning, allowing less than a hit per inning, and walking guys at lower than the league average rate at 23 years old. His peripherals are better than they were last year, although that does hide some inconsistency in his performance and he's near the league best in exit velocity off the bat--meaning he's generating a ton of weak contact. Progress is hard to see in real time. I highly doubt that Berrios's current 15% HR/FB rate is going to stay that high and I highly doubt a pitcher with well-above league average "stuff" is going to continue to have a strand rate as low as his. He's getting tons of "soft contact", tons of infield pop-ups, and a lot more GBs than previous years. He's generating elite (low) levels of hard contact, getting more swings and misses, etc. Again there are some things to worry about...too many HRs...too many line drives. Too inconsisent with command (although some of that is a little bit of getting squeezed) and a lack of focus and ability to overcome these types of things that are apart of baseball and limit damage. There's also a lot to be positive about too. ________________________________________________________________ I'm not sure if Berrios is going to develop into a true ace, the makeup concerns might prevent that. However concerns around Berrios are much more about whether his weaknesses will make him a "#2" or maybe a borderline #2/#3 (who maybe on an elite championship staff would be a #3, but you can have two #2 caliber pitchers and you should on an elite staff) instead of an ace ....than Berrios's weaknesses making him a #3/#4. Berrios's ERA last year alone was around the 25th-30 range for SPs, man if that's a #4.... Plus, if Berrios develops into a solid #2/elite #3 which he's pretty close to already and that's being a little negative...that's not really that much to be down about. Not many players become Kershaw or Verlander. If he's a tier or a couple tiers from that he's still a well above average player.

It seems like Berrios has been getting squeezed a lot lately. Also seems like there's been a lot of swinging bunt type hits that have fallen in. This has led to a lot of extended innings and extra base runners that might not have been there otherwise. Of course the home runs have been an issue too, although some of that has been compounded by the previous factors. I think he's going to be a guy that gives up some HRs though... With that being said, Berrios has to learn not to unravel when these things are happening and let things spiral. He also needs to become a better pitcher and more consistent with his command out of the stretch. I'm confident if Berrios isn't getting squeezed and the bloop hits aren't falling, he's going to pitch well...however can he overcome some of that adversity in games when it isn't? I want to see more 6 and 7 inning 3 run type starts when those things aren't going well as opposing to 7+ inning 0-1 run starts and 4-5 inning 4 and 5 run starts. This is a lot of what I see going on. Not the worst or most unexplainable thing to be hampering him at 23 on the MLB stage, but it's also a little bit of a concern because it's seemingly more of a makeup thing than something practice and repetition and tweaks with coaching can correct. It's also not a new trend. Not worried yet, but some improvement here would be nice to see soon.