Twins Showing "Strong" Interest in Bumgarner

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I would not give up much for MadBum alone. I would consider those 4 are untouchable: Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol and Balazovic.

That's fine, but your prospect proposals so far didn't just omit those 4 -- they seem to omit our top 15-20 or so.

 

Even with those untouchables, I'm guessing the Giants are going to be asking about Larnach, and/or Javier, and/or Duran, etc., from us, and about their equivalents from other orgs.

[curt1965]

The Giant’s organization is not stupid. As a rebuilding organization, they will try to maximize all of their non essential assets. And all the contenting teams know this. I think they will say, “ these guys are on the block, give me your best offer and realize we are also talking to 8(?) other teams.” Why would they not do this?

If the Twins were interested in either or both of these guys, I would first try to extend them (can this be done), then make them an offer of xxxxx players, and say you have 3 days to respond. It will not get any better.

By striking first, it would prevent the rich teams from coming in just before the deadline, and swallowing them up.

[amjgt]

 

I would not give up much for MadBum alone. I would consider those 4 are untouchable for any trade this season. Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol and Balazovic.

 

Nobody is untouchable for Syndegard or deGrom

 

Nobody is untouchable for Scherzer or Grienke, if their current teams pick up a reasonable portion of the contract.

 

Other than those 4 pitchers, yes, those prospects are untouchable in my mind. 

[twins_89]

I definitely wouldn't give up any of our top 10 prospects for Bumgarner (other than Thorpe). He's a mid rotation starter who would be a rental. Take away the name recognition and his value is not particularly high.

[jz7233]

 

That's fine, but your prospect proposals so far didn't just omit those 4 -- they seem to omit our top 15-20 or so.

 

Even with those untouchables, I'm guessing the Giants are going to be asking about Larnach, and/or Javier, and/or Duran, etc., from us, and about their equivalents from other orgs.

One of those three is fine, I would try to save as much pitching as possible. Sano could also be included in the trade.

[amjgt]

 

I would not give up much for MadBum alone. I would consider those 4 are untouchable for any trade this season. Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol and Balazovic.

 

 

Nobody is untouchable for Syndegard or deGrom

 

Nobody is untouchable for Scherzer or Grienke, if their current teams pick up a reasonable portion of the contract.

 

Other than those 4 pitchers, yes, those prospects are untouchable in my mind. 

 

 

Slight amendment...

 

I'd include any pitching prospect for Matthew Boyd. He still has 3 years of team control left.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

One of those three is fine, I would try to save as much pitching as possible. Sano could also be included in the trade.

Sano would be highly unlikely -- most teams that are sellers probably don't assign a whole lot of value to his two remaining seasons of team control (at arbitration prices). The Giants in particular would probably have zero interest, as they are already stuck with commitments to Belt (and Posey) and Longoria and have no DH spot available either.

[Trov]

I would be happy to bring in Mad Bum and one of SF bullpen guys in a trade.  Mad Bum is not pitching at same level of his 4 huge hears in mid twenties, but SF defense is not good, they as a team are negitive 5 runs defense, and Twins are plus 23.  Having better defense should help him, he is still striking out at career average.  

 

More importantly, he has done it in the playoffs and can bring that experience to team.  Also, getting onto a winning playoff team may reinvigorate him, remember how Verlander responded when going to Houston.  I would not break the bank trying to get him, but I believe he would add value to team. 

[ChrisKnutson]

While I like the idea that we’re finally going after a big name starter like Bumgarner, I still feel like we’re going to come up short of actually getting a deal done. I mean, there’s a specific reason why we weren’t on MadBum’s no-trade list; he doesn’t want to play for the Minnesota Twins. And because Bumgarner’s such a respected figure in the Giants organization, I gotta believe they’ll honor that by trading him to the team of his choice.

 

If I had to make a prediction, I’d predict that Bumgarner ends up with the Atlanta Braves, the team he grew up cheering for as a kid.

 

Now when it comes to acquiring Smith, well that deal should’ve been done yesterday...

[SpicyGarvSauce]

 

While I like the idea that we’re finally going after a big name starter like Bumgarner, I still feel like we’re going to come up short of actually getting a deal done. I mean, there’s a specific reason why we weren’t on MadBum’s no-trade list; he doesn’t want to play for the Minnesota Twins. And because Bumgarner’s such a respected figure in the Giants organization, I gotta believe they’ll honor that by trading him to the team of his choice.

If I had to make a prediction, I’d predict that Bumgarner ends up with the Atlanta Braves, the team he grew up cheering for as a kid.

Now when it comes to acquiring Smith, well that deal should’ve been done yesterday...

 

And that is fair, considering we have heard the Twins would make a splash in FA before and they never did; or they idea of a "splash" was trading for a middling arm/bat.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I mean, there’s a specific reason why we weren’t on MadBum’s no-trade list; he doesn’t want to play for the Minnesota Twins.

?

 

If he really didn't want to play here, why would he omit us from his no-trade list?

 

That said, no-trade lists are a combination of preferences and likelihood of a deal. No one would want to be traded to the Marlins this year (or any year?), but there is little or no likelihood of that happening anyway, so generally no one will waste a limited no-trade spot on them either.

[Otto von Ballpark]

For reference, here are the 8 teams on Bumgarner's no trade list this season:

 

Astros

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Phillies

Red Sox

Yankees

 

It appears that he just named the 8 most likely/aggressive suitors (preseason), to try to maximize control.

[DocBauer]

I'm all for making smart and needed additions. I'm not saying no to this 2 player idea, but I'm really not crazy about it.

 

Regardless of the players dealt, it is for TWO rental players, not one. Personally, unless Bumgarner comes much cheaper than speculated here, I think I'm out and would look at someone who still has control. Even if it cost me a bit more.

 

I'm in on Watson to join Rogers and then make the necessary move for a RHRP to join Rogers at the end of games. Preferably with an extra year or so.

 

I just think that's a smarter way to manage assets and future potential for this club.

[Thrylos]

Here is some food for thought:

 

2019 MadBum: 

4.16 FIP, 1.227 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, 4.3 K/BB, 6.04 Inn/GS

 

Verlander in 2017 with Tigers before he moved to Astros:

4.07 FIP, 1.279 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 2.6 K/BB, 6.14 Inn/GS

The rest is history

 

Cannot get closer than that and Bumgarner is 5 years younger than Verlander was then.

 

A change of scenery might make him a game changer for a team, and I hope that this team is the Twins, instead of, let's say, the Indians or the Yankees.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

more importantly, whether the team to which he is traded gives him an extension on his contract at favorable terms to the player or picks up an option.

Agreed. Of course, in Bumgarner's case, I don't think this part is much of a factor -- there's no option on his contract, and I'm guessing he'd rather negotiate his next contract on the open market this winter, after a (hopefully successful) pennant race and postseason, than negotiate an extension in July.

 

I suppose he could leverage the no-trade to hear extension offers from these clubs, which would be informative even if he didn't opt to sign them.

 

But destination control is still a factor too.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Here is some food for thought:

 

2019 MadBum: 

4.16 FIP, 1.227 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, 4.3 K/BB, 6.04 Inn/GS

 

Verlander in 2017 with Tigers before he moved to Astros:

4.07 FIP, 1.279 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 2.6 K/BB, 6.14 Inn/GS

The rest is history

 

Cannot get closer than that and Bumgarner is 5 years younger than Verlander was then.

Well, you probably could get closer. For starters, those FIPs aren't adjusted for league or park -- Verlander's was a 92 FIP- once adjusted, compared to Bumgarner's current 101. (xFIP- actually favors Bumgarner, though -- 94 to 100.)

 

And of course, Verlander was also coming off of 81 and 85 FIP- marks the previous two seasons, as compared to 104 and 97 for Bumgarner.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

I'm cautiously optimistic. I'd love to have Bumgarner on the team, but don't break the bank for him. He's not an ace any more, but that also means he might be available as a low-cost rental. As he is now, he would still be a back of the rotation upgrade, with upside.

He could also pinch hit.

[VATwinsFan]

 

He could also pinch hit.

For Sano?

[Riverbrian]

 

The Giants fansite "Around the Foghorn" had an article a month ago regarding building a trade with the Twins. They suggested 2 separate trades for Smith and Bumgarner to maximize their value.

 

San Francisco Giants Trade Proposal #1

To Twins: LHP Will Smith
To Giants: SS Wander Javier, RHP Jhoan Duran, and 1B/OF Brent Rooker

 

San Francisco Giants Trade Proposal #2

To Twins: LHP Madison Bumgarner and RHP Nick Vincent
To Giants: RHP Brusdar Graterol, 2B Yunior Severino and C Ryan Jeffers

 

Remember it is a Giants fansite, so seems extremely lofty on their part. These would decimate our farm system. Not gonna happen at those prices...

 

At those prices... You gotta walk away. 

[dex8425]

 

The Giants fansite "Around the Foghorn" had an article a month ago regarding building a trade with the Twins. They suggested 2 separate trades for Smith and Bumgarner to maximize their value.

 

San Francisco Giants Trade Proposal #1

To Twins: LHP Will Smith
To Giants: SS Wander Javier, RHP Jhoan Duran, and 1B/OF Brent Rooker

 

San Francisco Giants Trade Proposal #2

To Twins: LHP Madison Bumgarner and RHP Nick Vincent
To Giants: RHP Brusdar Graterol, 2B Yunior Severino and C Ryan Jeffers

 

Remember it is a Giants fansite, so seems extremely lofty on their part. These would decimate our farm system. Not gonna happen at those prices...

H-E-C-K to the no. 

[Riverbrian]

 

For reference, here are the 8 teams on Bumgarner's no trade list this season:

 

Astros

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Phillies

Red Sox

Yankees

 

It appears that he just named the 8 most likely/aggressive suitors (preseason), to try to maximize control.

 

We just can't get any respect. 

[Riverbrian]

I'd love to have Bumgarner... Just worried about paying for the same real estate twice after Bumgarner his free agency in the off-season. But Yeah... I'd love to have Bumgarner. 

 

Yes... we need to add bullpen arms regardless but if anyone thinks that we need bullpen more than starting pitching... I strongly suggest that you take a look at how many innings our starters/bullpen are eating and compare that ratio with the rest of the league.

 

Then I strongly suggest looking at past starting pitching injury history for all teams for the past decade and use that information for probability assessments and then take a look at how many starters suffered second half collapses.

 

If you can't see the need for a strong starter... you are missing some important history lessons.  

[KFEY93]

 

Forget Madbum and forget Smith if he's costly. Go after Tony Watson. He should be affordable and he's quietly been a great lefty setup man out of the SF pen the last couple of years. If the Twins can win the division with the starting staff they have (which I think they can) they only need three starters in the playoffs. That can be Berrios, Odo, and whoever is pitching better at the time between Pineda or Gibson. Our relief really ins't that bad. The league RP ERA is 4.50 right now. Look a Rodgers' ERA, look at Harpers', May has gotten better, and maybe he can improve more. Littel sure looked like he figured it out against Boston a week ago and I've heard they've been working on changing some things. Obviously we need to see more from him. Same can be said about Stewart. Duff man has been looking filthy as of late. Very strange year for relief pitching, Liam Hendricks might be the best one this season!I

If you are talking about making a deep playoff run you CAN NOT compare our BP ERA to the LEAGUE when most of the league is average to garbage and obviously wont be IN the play offs. You must compare us to who we will be facing in the play offs because thats who matters. When you do that you see how lacking we are in ALL phases of pitching. 

[KFEY93]

 

For Sano?

Yes

[Squirrel]

At those prices... You gotta walk away.

at that suggestion, you laugh first and then walk away

[Squirrel]

We just can't get any respect.

At the time he made that list, did anyone think the Twins would be winning as they are? At the time he made that list he came up with a reasonable list of who would be playoff teams to give himself some leverage. And it could play to our advantage. I don’t think it has anything to do with respect. More that no one thought the Twins would be where they are before the season started.

[Mr. Brooks]

At the time he made that list, did anyone think the Twins would be winning as they are? At the time he made that list he came up with a reasonable list of who would be playoff teams to give himself some leverage. And it could play to our advantage. I don’t think it has anything to do with respect. More that no one thought the Twins would be where they are before the season started.

Someday TD will give us that sarcasm emoji...

[amjgt]

 

Someday TD will give us that sarcasm emoji...

is about as close as we get

[yarnivek1972]

Value isn't determined in a vacuum. I'm certain that several teams can and would beat that offer.

Bumgarnee has blocked “several teams”. So, those teams (almost all the other contenders) aren’t relevant to the discusion.

[amjgt]

 

Bumgarnee has blocked “several teams”. So, those teams (almost all the other contenders) aren’t relevant to the discusion.

 

While I disagree that them being on the no-trade list makes them irrelevant, if for some reason (I suppose I could come up with a few) he WANTS to come to Minnesota, then it's a huge advantage for us.