Twins Showing "Strong" Interest in Bumgarner

[goulik]

I would prefer a pitcher controllable beyond the remainder of the season and I’m willing to pay prospects for that controllable pitcher. If it means Extending Bumgarner, fine but I’m worried about next year too and I hope the front office is looking for more than just rentals. Same goes foe Smith. If we don’t trade real prospects we will lose real prospects to rule 5. They want outfielders? We have lots of them close to MLB ready. For rentals I’m only dealing from surplus not guys I believe could be in our future.

[USAFChief]

 

People are irrational when it comes to assessments of Sano.

Look at his career OPS to date (.813). In his first 6 season in the major leagues, Harmon Killebrew surpassed that number 1 time. Think about that. David Ortiz one time (and he wasn’t good until he was 26+).

I don’t know why Ks are even in the conversation anymore. Look around the league. Domingo Santana, who is having a great year, Javy Baez, Bryce Harper, Trevor Story, Luke Voit are all in the top 10 in Ks right now (Miguel is not due to less PT I’m sure). People are striking out a ton these days. Some of the best players in the game are striking out a ton these days.

Writing him off now is asinine. Yet, the same people keep pimping Astudillo and his .685 OPS and awful defense. It’s really mind boggling, and frankly, an awful take IMO.

Did nobody learn from Thrylos wanting to swap Buxton for a bag of balls and replace him with Granite?

I did think about it, but not for long. That might be the worst comparison I've seen on this board.

 

As was pointed out, Killebrew was in the majors at 18, and didn't play. His first 5 years consisted of 15, 89, 110, 33, and 33 PAs.

 

Then at 23, he was given a full time position. OPS's for the next three years, starting that first full year: .870, .909, 1.012 with 1800 PAs in those three years. At THAT point, he was still a year younger than Sano is today.

 

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Not to ask the question, but why? 

 

Go look at his numbers. He's not been that good. He's a rental. I want them to trade for someone, but perferably someone getting results. He's not pitching like a difference maker right now.

 

Only reason I can think of is that he's cheap (those fan proposals were ridiculous). Spend the prospects and get Boyd. 

[a-wan]

How much extra value does the Giant get for name recognition with Bumgarner?

[USAFChief]

 

Not to ask the question, but why? 

 

Go look at his numbers. He's not been that good. He's a rental. I want them to trade for someone, but perferably someone getting results. He's not pitching like a difference maker right now.

 

Only reason I can think of is that he's cheap (those fan proposals were ridiculous). Spend the prospects and get Boyd. 

It sort of depends on if you confine your "look" to 2019 only, or if you expand it a bit.

 

And even 2019 is pretty decent.

[Linus]

Some of the proposals are extreme for a 2 month rental of an aging starter. I want more pitching but we need to calm down a little

[Mr. Brooks]

How was that sarcasm? I wasn’t being sarcastic.

The post you respond to was.

[Squirrel]

The post you respond to was.

Yeah, if you read on, I eventually got it

[Mr. Brooks]

Yeah, if you read on, I eventually got it

Yep, that's what I get for jumping the gun and not reading through.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

It sort of depends on if you confine your "look" to 2019 only, or if you expand it a bit.

 

And even 2019 is pretty decent.

Well, the ERA is north of 4 this season and has steadily risen in 2017 and 18. His strike out rate the last couple seasons is in decline. His WHIP is also up in that timeframe, as is his HR rate the last couple seasons... and that's in a nice friendly pitchers park in the NL. This season he's been prone to the long ball surrendering 1.5 HR every 9 innings. They are paying for a name and results that haven't been achieved in 2+ seasons now. Bumgardner won't necessarily hurt the team, but I'm not seeing him to be that difference maker either. 

 

Go get Boyd, Grienke, Scherzer, Thor or someone in that category. Pay the prospects to do it. Pay for results, but don't pay for a name. That's the classic mistake that teams make at the deadline. 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Go get Boyd, Grienke, Scherzer, Thor or someone in that category. Pay the prospects to do it. Pay for results, but don't pay for a name. That's the classic mistake that teams make at the deadline.

Well, there is strong evidence that none of those 4 will be available (to the Twins, at least), even if we are willing pay the price. How does Bumgarner look then?

 

No one is arguing that Bumgarner is perfect, but he might be the best of the realistic options for us. Don't let perfect be the enemy of good!

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Well, there is strong evidence that none of those 4 will be available (to the Twins, at least), even if we are willing pay the price. How does Bumgarner look then?

No one is arguing that Bumgarner is perfect, but he might be the best of the realistic options for us. Don't let perfect be the enemy of good!

I generally agree, but it's also why I don't rule out Stroman.

 

Again, I don't like attaching myself to specific names. My real hope is that the front office goes and gets the guy they are most confident in going forward, price be damned (within reason, of course).

[USAFChief]

 

Well, the ERA is north of 4 this season and has steadily risen in 2017 and 18. His strike out rate the last couple seasons is in decline. His WHIP is also up in that timeframe, as is his HR rate the last couple seasons... and that's in a nice friendly pitchers park in the NL. This season he's been prone to the long ball surrendering 1.5 HR every 9 innings. They are paying for a name and results that haven't been achieved in 2+ seasons now. Bumgardner won't necessarily hurt the team, but I'm not seeing him to be that difference maker either. 

 

Go get Boyd, Grienke, Scherzer, Thor or someone in that category. Pay the prospects to do it. Pay for results, but don't pay for a name. That's the classic mistake that teams make at the deadline. 

I've been pounding my fist on the desk for Scherzer for over a month, but the dang Nationals haven't gone in the tank, like I hoped. Maybe Detroit trades Boyd, but why? 

 

As for the "2+ seasons" for Bumgarner, other than missing some time, 2018 and 2019 were both very much in line with his career.

[Squirrel]

Well, there is strong evidence that none of those 4 will be available (to the Twins, at least), even if we are willing pay the price. How does Bumgarner look then?

No one is arguing that Bumgarner is perfect, but he might be the best of the realistic options for us. Don't let perfect be the enemy of good!

I won’t mind if we get Bumgarner over the others mentioned, even though I like those other options better. But I don’t want to pay the same price. I’m not willing to overpay for Bumgarner, but I would be willing to for, say, Schezer.

[USAFChief]

 

I won’t mind if we get Bumgarner over the others mentioned, even though I like those other options better. But I don’t want to pay the same price. I’m not willing to overpay for Bumgarner, but I would be willing to for, say, Schezer.

I'm not sure you CAN overpay for Scherzer. AFAIC, they can have the entire Twins minor league system and a couple of counties that are trending red.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Well, there is strong evidence that none of those 4 will be available (to the Twins, at least), even if we are willing pay the price. How does Bumgarner look then?

No one is arguing that Bumgarner is perfect, but he might be the best of the realistic options for us. Don't let perfect be the enemy of good!

I won't argue this, but I'll be a bit surprised if Boyd isn't available. Tigers can get peak value for him this offseason, and he won't be around for when their window opens again. I think the Twins would be smart to trade for him. 

 

My point is that Bumgardner shouldn't  be the primary target. Heck, I've been low on Stroman and I think I'd take him over Bumgardner for no other reason than 2020 control. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I've been pounding my fist on the desk for Scherzer for over a month, but the dang Nationals haven't gone in the tank, like I hoped. Maybe Detroit trades Boyd, but why? 

 

As for the "2+ seasons" for Bumgarner, other than missing some time, 2018 and 2019 were both very much in line with his career.

 

Detroit trades Boyd b/c they're bad. Their farm is bad. They've just started to tank. He won't be around when they are good, and they could easily pick up a premium prospect or two for him. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I won't argue this, but I'll be a bit surprised if Boyd isn't available. Tigers can get peak value for him this offseason, and he won't be around for when their window opens again. I think the Twins would be smart to trade for him.

 

Even if he's available generally, I am not sure the Tigers will make Boyd equally available to the Twins.

[Otto von Ballpark]

My point is that Bumgardner shouldn't be the primary target. Heck, I've been low on Stroman and I think I'd take him over Bumgardner for no other reason than 2020 control.

Sure, but it's a balancing act. The longer you wait, the greater the risk you get shut out of any SP acquisitions. Once the Giants are willing to deal Bumgarner for a reasonable price, it will be risky to pass that up and pin your hopes on just Stroman (to say nothing of the much longer shots).

 

Fortunately I don't think the Giants are at that point yet.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Even if he's available generally, I am not sure the Tigers will make Boyd equally available to the Twins.

That would be foolish of the Tigers but I wouldn't rule it out.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

That would be foolish of the Tigers but I wouldn't rule it out.

If the Tigers make Boyd available, as a quality controllable SP, they will have no shortage of suitors. It should be relatively easy to avoid consummating a deal with the Twins -- the Twins aren't the only team that can put together a quality prospect package, nor is there any evidence at this point that the Twins would pay a premium to definitively top all other prospect packages. How is any of that foolish?

[Brock Beauchamp]

If the Tigers make Boyd available, as a quality controllable SP, they will have no shortage of suitors. It should be relatively easy to avoid consummating a deal with the Twins -- the Twins aren't the only team that can put together a quality prospect package, nor is there any evidence at this point that the Twins would pay a premium to definitively top all other prospect packages. How is any of that foolish?

There aren’t many teams that can offer a Royce Lewis. I’m saying it’s foolish to talk yourself out of taking the best deal because the other team is in your division.

 

Take the best deal, period. I’m not saying the Twins would offer the best deal but I firmly believe in BP(s)A in this situation.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

There aren’t many teams that can offer a Royce Lewis. I’m saying it’s foolish to talk yourself out of taking the best deal because the other team is in your division.

Take the best deal, period. I’m not saying the Twins would offer the best deal but I firmly believe in BP(s)A in this situation.

Who said anything about talking yourself out of taking the best deal?

 

I get your take, in theory. But in terms of actual prospect packages, I'm not sure the "best deal" is usually all that clear. In all likelihood, the Twins best offer will be roughly equivalent to the best offers of 5 other teams, with or without Royce Lewis.

 

In a case where a player has a more limited market and/or less control, like Realmuto or Eovaldi, you may more often find the best deal is in your division. But for a SP, with 3.5 years control? The market is broad enough where the Tigers probably don't have to consummate a deal with the Twins, without any foolishness necessary.

 

It doesn't take accusations of Detroit foolishness to suggest that it's highly unlikely that Boyd lands in Minnesota. (There's plenty of actual Detroit foolishness to make up for that, though!)

[Steve Lein]

There's two path's I like the Twins taking:

 

1. Spend lesser prospect capital to land Bumgarner and Will Smith.

 

As in other topics, my ceiling for being "okay" with this trade is Trevor Larnach and Nick Gordon. I think it should take less than that for them as rentals, but they are going to be in demand.

 

2. Go all out and get an ace. I'm looking at the likes of Thor/DeGrom.

 

Anyone is on the table there, as I don't think that conversation starts without Lewis or Kirilloff.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Who said anything about talking yourself out of taking the best deal?

 

I get your take, in theory. But in terms of actual prospect packages, I'm not sure the "best deal" is usually all that clear. In all likelihood, the Twins best offer will be roughly equivalent to the best offers of 5 other teams, with or without Royce Lewis.

 

In a case where a player has a more limited market and/or less control, like Realmuto or Eovaldi, you may more often find the best deal is in your division. But for a SP, with 3.5 years control? The market is broad enough where the Tigers probably don't have to consummate a deal with the Twins, without any foolishness necessary.

 

It doesn't take accusations of Detroit foolishness to suggest that it's highly unlikely that Boyd lands in Minnesota. (There's plenty of actual Detroit foolishness to make up for that, though!)

I think we're talking past each other a bit. I don't think it's foolish at all to believe it's unlikely Boyd lands in Minnesota.

 

But when talking about the prospect haul required to get that kind of guy, the field narrows quickly. Out of MLB's top 100, only Houston can match the 7/13 Lewis/Kirilloff the Twins could offer... and if I was Detroit, that's the kind of package I'd look to front a deal of that magnitude.

 

But anyway, I don't think it's foolish if Detroit declines Minnesota's theoretical offer if they believe they have a better package (or even equal, though I don't believe "equal" is something that should come up often in development circles) from someone else on the table, I only feel it's foolish if Detroit believes Minnesota's theoretical package is the best and declines because they play in the same division.

[Mike Sixel]

Brandon
12:55 Chances the mets sell syndergaard or Degrom at the deadline?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:55 LOL no.

 

12:59 Look, they signed deGrom long term, with full no-trade protection. He's not going anywhere — you have to imagine that before he did so, he played out the various scenarios in his mind, including something on the order of a ****show like this, and decided he's still better off in Queens than elsewhere — and I have a very hard time imagining they're selling low on Syndergaard with two years of club control remaining. And it's very clear that they're not a dreadful team in need of a rebuild. I'd start with a new manager — I'd have fired Callaway long ago — and see where it goes from there.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jay-jaffe-fangraphs-chat-6-27-19/

[Thrylos]

 

What have been MadBum's numbers in interleague in AL parks?

 

Exactly the same as yours and mine this season.  He has not pitched a game in an AL park.

[Mike Sixel]

Big Joe Mufferaw
1:57 Clint Frazier, Domingo German (2 MLB ready, good players under 5+ years on control) for Scherzer? Is that a good trade scenario?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:57 Max isn't going anywhere.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

That would be foolish of the Tigers but I wouldn't rule it out.

 

It would be incredibly dumb... want not let the Twins lower the draft seed a bit more over the next few years while taking at least one top 100 prospect from them. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

There aren’t many teams that can offer a Royce Lewis. I’m saying it’s foolish to talk yourself out of taking the best deal because the other team is in your division.

Take the best deal, period. I’m not saying the Twins would offer the best deal but I firmly believe in BP(s)A in this situation.

 

yeah, it's Minny that would be hesitant... after all, it will be their prospects terrorizing them down the road.