Twins stuff from around the Web (Fangraphs, Twitter, Athletic, non-local news sites, etc)

[amjgt]

 

More Twins questions and answers than you can shake a stick at:

 

http://meadowparty.com/blog/2019/09/05/klawchat-9-5-19/

 

A lot of the same usual questions.

 

The Kepler one was the only surprise.

 

I was hoping someone would ask him about Bailey Ober. Something like....

 

"Hey Keith, you were in early on Jordan Balazovic, what about another Twins prospect this year. Bailey Ober has been putting up crazy numbers when healthy and certainly has the build to be a front line pitcher. Any thoughts on him"

[Squirrel]

A lot of the same usual questions.

 

The Kepler one was the only surprise.

 

I was hoping someone would ask him about Bailey Ober. Something like....

 

"Hey Keith, you were in early on Jordan Balazovic, what about another Twins prospect this year. Bailey Ober has been putting up crazy numbers when healthy and certainly has the build to be a front line pitcher. Any thoughts on him"

You should get in on the next chat and ask that!

[amjgt]

 

You should get in on the next chat and ask that!

 

His chats aren't the easiest to find. I literally searched "Keith Law Chat" yesterday morning and came up empty. Anyone please feel free to borrow my question next time he has a chat.

[Mike Sixel]

His chats aren't the easiest to find. I literally searched "Keith Law Chat" yesterday morning and came up empty. Anyone please feel free to borrow my question next time he has a chat.

They are almost every Thursday on his personal site.

[Mike Sixel]

http://meadowparty.com/blog/2019/10/17/klawchat-10-17-19/

 

Mike (NOT ME, BTW): Has what Royce Lewis done in the AFL given you more optimism that the swing adjustments are progressing and the talent is still intact? Kiley at Fangraphs said in his chat yesterday he’s still bullish.

 

Keith Law: What swing adjustments? He looked exactly the same – huge leg kick, big hitch – and did not hit at all during the regular season. Nothing is wrong with him physically, but I don’t think there’s a big leaguer who hits for average with a noisy approach like Lewis’s.

 

Dan: Hi Keith – thanks for your insights! Was wondering if you thought 2020 would be a realistic expectation for the White Sox to challenge for a division title with what they currently have? I know free agent additions could change this outlook. I also know they have a lot of question marks, especially on players coming back from injuries, but I’m not sure the Twins’ run this year is sustainable.

 

Keith Law: Not as currently constituted, but they should be very aggressive this winter. I do think the Twins’ run is sustainable, but the White Sox can match them with improvements from internal options plus two pieces added this winter.

 

Ron: Is this off season a good time for the Twins to trade Rosario? Would he bring any decent pitching? Your thoughts. Thanks as always for the chats!

 

Keith Law: A low-OBP corner outfielder who’s not a great defender and has two years remaining probably doesn’t bring back much pitching, especially if his power spike this year was more the baseball than anything new with him.

 

 

[jkcarew]

 

Keith Law: What swing adjustments? He looked exactly the same – huge leg kick, big hitch – and did not hit at all during the regular season. Nothing is wrong with him physically, but I don’t think there’s a big leaguer who hits for average with a noisy approach like Lewis’s.

FWIW...looking at the clip of Lewis hitting the AFL all-star home run...I don't see anything different, either. On the other hand...is it the goal of any prospect these days to "hit for average"? Rhetorical. It's fascinating to see/hear the experts have conflicting opinions on the same guy. Thanks.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

FWIW...looking at the clip of Lewis hitting the AFL all-star home run...I don't see anything different, either. On the other hand...is it the goal of any prospect these days to "hit for average"? Rhetorical. It's fascinating to see/hear the experts have conflicting opinions on the same guy. Thanks.

Law seems to be relatively accurate in his assessments but is hardly exempt from missing the mark relatively often, too (a good reminder that scouting is hardly a precise science). We should probably have concerns about Lewis but if we have concerns, Falvine probably also have concerns and possibly a solution.

[SpicyGarvSauce]

Sorry, I don't trust anything Law has to say.

[Mike Sixel]

Sorry, I don't trust anything Law has to say.

Based on? And why bother reading then?

[USAFChief]

 

Based on?  

KLaw hates the Twins. 

[SpicyGarvSauce]

 

Based on? And why bother reading then?

 

I read the bit that was posted in this thread....okay?

 

And because Law has proven himself to be wrong before...

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I read the bit that was posted in this thread....okay?

 

And because Law has proven himself to be wrong before...

 

Has someone out there not proven themselves wrong before?

[USAFChief]

 

Has someone out there not proven themselves wrong before?

Once I thought I was wrong, but I was mistaken about that.

[Mike Sixel]

JA
3:12 Hearing a lot of talk about the Twins being big players in free agent pitching. If the top 5-6 sign elsewhere, do you see enough prospect capital for them to pull off two or three substantial trades to put a World Series contending staff?
Steve Adams
3:13 I'll be surprised if the Twins don't sign one of those top 5-6 names. But yes, their system is deep and generally regarded to be among the upper third of farm clubs. Problem is, as mentioned before, there are more upside plays than sure things on the trade market.
Stevil
3:14 Last offseason we saw Lynn land a deal that seemed like a ridiculous overpay. Time proved it wasn't. Who could you see as the comparative this offseason?
Steve Adams
3:14 Kyle Gibson

 

https://www.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with-mlbtrs-steve-adams-11-19-19-6446.html

 

[redstorm]

Eno Sarris from The Athletic (behind a paywall) put out an article on the biggest remaining team needs and how to fill them.

 

For the Twins he has them making the following trade:

 

Lewis Thorpe, Cole Sands and Jovani Moran for Jon Gray and Daniel Murphy.

 

I'd do that in a heartbeat if I were the Twins but I see no way the Rockies pull the trigger on it

 

He also has them signing Rich Hill to a 1 year deal

 

https://theathletic.com/1468067/2019/12/18/the-biggest-remaining-mlb-team-needs-and-how-to-fill-them/

 

[nicksaviking]

 

Eno Sarris from The Athletic (behind a paywall) put out an article on the biggest remaining team needs and how to fill them.

 

For the Twins he has them making the following trade:

 

Lewis Thorpe, Cole Sands and Jovani Moran for Jon Gray and Daniel Murphy.

 

I'd do that in a heartbeat if I were the Twins but I see no way the Rockies pull the trigger on it

 

https://theathletic.com/1468067/2019/12/18/the-biggest-remaining-mlb-team-needs-and-how-to-fill-them/

 

Yes, that would be fantastic, let's do it!

[prouster]

Eno Sarris from The Athletic (behind a paywall) put out an article on the biggest remaining team needs and how to fill them.

 

For the Twins he has them making the following trade:

 

Lewis Thorpe, Cole Sands and Jovani Moran for Jon Gray and Daniel Murphy.

 

I'd do that in a heartbeat if I were the Twins but I see no way the Rockies pull the trigger on it

 

He also has them signing Rich Hill to a 1 year deal

 

https://theathletic.com/1468067/2019/12/18/the-biggest-remaining-mlb-team-needs-and-how-to-fill-them/

I’m on board. Eno is smart.

[GP830]

 

Eno Sarris from The Athletic (behind a paywall) put out an article on the biggest remaining team needs and how to fill them.

 

For the Twins he has them making the following trade:

 

Lewis Thorpe, Cole Sands and Jovani Moran for Jon Gray and Daniel Murphy.

 

I'd do that in a heartbeat if I were the Twins but I see no way the Rockies pull the trigger on it

 

He also has them signing Rich Hill to a 1 year deal

 

https://theathletic.com/1468067/2019/12/18/the-biggest-remaining-mlb-team-needs-and-how-to-fill-them/

You do that move 100% of the time. With Muprhy you get a legit LH corner bat, and Gray is the Ace. 

[gunnarthor]

 

You do that move 100% of the time. With Muprhy you get a legit LH corner bat, and Gray is the Ace. 

Murphy is not a good player anymore and failed to hit at Coors field. He played mostly first base and wasn't great there last year. His inclusion would be to save money for the Rockies. Assuming the Twins buy him out next season, would still cost the Twins 14m (8m this season and 6m next).

 

Gray is Arb 2 so we'd have him for two years. He'd likely cost 5.5m this season. So the trade would raise payroll 13.5 this season and probably 16 next? (guessing 10m in A3? that might be way off). 

 

I think this would be a great trade for the Twins but the Rockies could still probably get a better offer than Thorpe, Sands and Moran. 

 

 

[jkcarew]

 

Eno Sarris from The Athletic (behind a paywall) put out an article on the biggest remaining team needs and how to fill them.

 

For the Twins he has them making the following trade:

 

Lewis Thorpe, Cole Sands and Jovani Moran for Jon Gray and Daniel Murphy.

 

I'd do that in a heartbeat if I were the Twins but I see no way the Rockies pull the trigger on it

 

He also has them signing Rich Hill to a 1 year deal

 

https://theathletic.com/1468067/2019/12/18/the-biggest-remaining-mlb-team-needs-and-how-to-fill-them/

That for 2 years of Jon Gray? I wouldn't call it a no-brainer, but you'd have to pull the trigger given the current window/opportunity.

 

If this was offered by the Rockies, I'd consider Murphy a salary dump on the part of Colorado...and I'd do anything possible to do a deal that doesn't involve Murphy...but I'd take him if it was necessary to do the deal. Twins are better with Sano and CJ Cron, than with Sano and Murphy.

[big dog]

Those three players + $14 million in salary relief for Jon Gray...I don't see any reason to consider Murphy part of the solution to any problem we have. I'd be interested to see what team would offer more than that.

[70charger]

FWIW, the trade simulator (https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/) rejects this trade as very unbalanced.

 

Yes, including Murphy drags down the Rockies' value, but Gray is significantly more valuable than any other piece in the trade. The only appreciable value the Twins would be giving up would be Thorpe, which is kind of hard to disagree with, unless you're totally convinced that Sands is going to be something. 

[SmellEm]

"The Twins' guiding principle in free agency seems to be to seek out all the No. 3 starters they can find. That has worked out about as well as you'd expect: Sometimes they get a solid No. 3 and sometimes they get something worse. Coming off a big 101-win season and with payroll flexibility due to the youth on the roster, have the Twins aimed higher this offseason? Nope. They re-signed Michael Pineda."

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28290800/the-best-worst-free-agent-signing-decade-all-30-mlb-teams#AL%20Central

[Mike Sixel]

Twins brought on Chris Mitchell? the guy that invented KATOH?

 

Huh, and people here used to mock it.....

[nicksaviking]

 

FWIW, the trade simulator (https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/) rejects this trade as very unbalanced.

 

Yes, including Murphy drags down the Rockies' value, but Gray is significantly more valuable than any other piece in the trade. The only appreciable value the Twins would be giving up would be Thorpe, which is kind of hard to disagree with, unless you're totally convinced that Sands is going to be something. 

 

That trade simulator is really fun, but it kind of took the legitimacy out of it for me the other day trying to run trades for Blake Snell and realized that somehow Matt Wallner, Keoni Cavaco, Jordan Balazovic, Ryan Jeffers and Trevor Larnach are all more valuable than Miguel Sano. Eddie Rosario and Tyler Duffey too.  Taylor Rogers is 4x as valuable.

 

He's basically a push with Willian Astudillo though, so that part seems about right.

[70charger]

 

That trade simulator is really fun, but it kind of took the legitimacy out of it for me the other day trying to run trades for Blake Snell and realized that somehow Matt Wallner, Keoni Cavaco, Jordan Balazovic, Ryan Jeffers and Trevor Larnach are all more valuable than Miguel Sano. Eddie Rosario and Tyler Duffey too.  Taylor Rogers is 4x as valuable.

 

He's basically a push with Willian Astudillo though, so that part seems about right.

 

There were some surprising values in there, yeah. I'm guessing it's all "in a vacuum" kind of stuff, and a guy who's a defensive liability, hasn't been healthy or consistent, and is in the expensive part of his team control with only two years left doesn't look very good on paper.

 

On the other hand, if you have a team making a championship push that just needs that intimidating power bat to push it over the finish line, maybe Miguel Sano starts to look a lot more compelling. There's usually a market for a standout skill.

[prouster]

From a Ken Rosenthal article just posted to the Athletic (paywall):

 

“Don’t count the Twins out of the Josh Donaldson sweepstakes just yet.

 

Donaldson, 34, has multiple four-year offers, with both the Twins and Nationals believed to be at that level. If the Twins sign Donaldson, they will move Miguel Sanó from third to first base.”

[Don Walcott]

https://www.mlb.com/twins/news/dobnaks-give-back-to-st-jude-children-hospital

 

'Tis the Season, everyone!