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SmellEm

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Everything posted by SmellEm

  1. SmellEm
    The best part is that he has spent much of the last year complaining about how toxic social media is when he built his entire brand on being the snarky guy who would call people idiots for not agree with his opinions on prospects.
  2. SmellEm
    Baseball Reference WAR is heavily dependent on park factors for pitcher's which is hurting his value quite a bit. It's why they also had Mike Minor and Lance Lynn as the 2nd and 3rd highest WAR pitchers in the AL last year because Arlington graded as the most hitter friendly park in 2018. Fangraph's WAR grades him out quite a bit better.
  3. SmellEm
    In general, if Law thinks a guy is most likely going to the bullpen he will rank them much lower than the rest of the industry. He just doesn't think there is much value in relief prospects.
  4. SmellEm
    What an absurd question. Of course he will make the roster.
  5. SmellEm
    It's pretty difficult to tell exactly what we can learn from these sorts of stats without at least a few years of data to review. Advanced defensive stats tend to be pretty noisy. Their 2017 and 2018 numbers for Polanco are also poor, but nowhere near as bad as last year. And in 2017 Dozier graded as well above average and then in 2018 he was well below average. Obviously that's possible with the injuries Dozier was dealing with his last year here but that's a pretty significant swing.
  6. SmellEm
    That account actually came out a couple of days later and said he was just a Braves fan who made it all up.
  7. SmellEm
    This 100% reads as Donaldson trying to use the Twins as leverage to get Atlanta to up their offer.
  8. SmellEm
    Strib is reporting that the Twins think Donaldson has no interest in playing for them and they are now moving on. Just a wonderful off-season. http://m.startribune.com/twins-likely-out-of-the-bidding-for-josh-donaldson/566722402/
  9. SmellEm
    How big of a disaster would this off-season be if Odorizzi's agent was good at his job?
  10. SmellEm
    So there's our rotation. No impact free agent and no impact trade. We got swept by the Yankees, they add the best pitcher in baseball and we hope we can get Gibson/Perez level production from a guy whose ceiling is mediocre and the most injured pitcher in MLB history. Eagerly waiting to hear that we made a competitive offer to Donaldson but he chose Atlanta or DC for reasons. Great job on the front office for dropping this on a holiday so maybe no one will notice. What a joke.
  11. SmellEm
    People need to stop comparing the Bumgarner and Wheeler situations as they really aren’t the same at all. It looks like Bumgarner really did want to go to Arizona and took significantly less money to do so basically forcing Arizona to sign him. Obviously the Twins probably weren’t going to get him with any sort of reasonable offer. But he is also pretty clearly an exception as most free agents aren’t going to leave that much money on the table. But Wheeler’s situation was completely different. As far as we know he turned down a slightly higher offer from the White Sox to sign with Philadelphia because he preferred the location. Obviously if a player has multiple similar offers where the money is pretty similar, other factors are going to come into play. But we have no idea if he would have signed with the Twins if they made a similar offer because they didn’t. All we know is that he preferred the Phillies over the White Sox when the money was basically the same. There is no reason to think he wouldn’t have seriously considered the Twins if they truly made the best offer.
  12. SmellEm
    I'm fairly certain this is the article he was referring to. It names a US blog as the source and says he's going to sign for 4 years and $73 million. A translation for the blog's name comes up as "Bleachery Port" which I'm guessing is supposed to be Bleacher Report but I can find no mention of the story on Bleacher Report. http://news.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2019/12/19/2019121900618.html
  13. SmellEm
    "The Twins' guiding principle in free agency seems to be to seek out all the No. 3 starters they can find. That has worked out about as well as you'd expect: Sometimes they get a solid No. 3 and sometimes they get something worse. Coming off a big 101-win season and with payroll flexibility due to the youth on the roster, have the Twins aimed higher this offseason? Nope. They re-signed Michael Pineda." https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28290800/the-best-worst-free-agent-signing-decade-all-30-mlb-teams#AL%20Central
  14. SmellEm
    Yes, I'm sure it was very easy for the Polands to spend a half a billion tax payer dollars for Target Field. Now it's time for them to pay us back.
  15. SmellEm
    The big difference between guys like Odorizzi/Berrios vs Cole/Verlander/Scherzer/etc is that the real aces keep their teams "in the game" for 6 or 7 innings not 4 or 5.
  16. SmellEm
    The tweets saying he wouldn't like to come to Minnesota are from the FO leaking to local reporters as an excuse to why they're not going to sign him. His agents are leaking info to national reporters telling them that sure, he'd love to play here because the more teams in on him, the more money he gets.
  17. SmellEm
    Yep, the Marlins gave 250 at bats last year to an outfielder that had a .457 OPS. Rosario would become one of their top 2 or 3 hitters.
  18. SmellEm
    My prediction for the Twins big offseason move is they will trade Rosario for a starter then trade for Betts. Betts is going to make $30+ Million next year, and seems pretty committed to being a free agent after next season. The Red Sox want to cut salary and seem open to moving Betts. Betts wanting to hit free agency should depress his trade value a decent amount as whomever trades for him won't expect him to sign an extension. The Twins have tons of salary room, a real aversion to long-term contracts, plenty of prospects and a couple of young outfielders who may be ready to start in 2021. And if for some reason the Twins stumble next season they can probably get back a decent amount of what they gave up for him at the deadline. And I just don't think there will be that much competition from teams looking to pay him $30 million for just one year. In a world where Bumgarner may be pushing $25 million a year on a 5 or 6 year contract, paying an actual elite player like Betts $30 million for one year is a bargain.
  19. SmellEm
    The Astros literally came within a game of winning the World Series and the team they lost to has given huge contracts to Scherzer, Strasburg and Corbin in recent years. I'm not sure you could have picked a worse example to show that signing elite starting pitchers is a bad idea.
  20. SmellEm
    It's becoming pretty clear that the front office is leaking stuff like this to local reporters about Bumgarner and Ryu so they have an excuse when they don't sign them. And in response both player's camps have leaked to national reporters that they would come to Minnesota if the money is right. I'm guessing neither guy has us at the top of their list, but either would come here if the money is right. In a few days we'll hear about how they loved the organization but they just wanted to stay on the West Coast, or go to a bigger city, or be closer to home, etc. And then they'll try to pretend that is the reason we didn't sign them and not the fact that our offer was for 20% less than the winning one.
  21. SmellEm
    The team that swept the Twins in the playoffs just signed the best pitcher in baseball. The window might already be shut.
  22. SmellEm
    The Padres are apparently trying to dump Myers contract, wonder if they would be willing to part with Mackensie Gore in order to do so. Myers is owed about $68.5 million over the next three years (+ the buyout for his 4th year) and may only be usable as a platoon bat against lefties, so they're going to have to include a decent amount to get rid of him. Twins may have to throw in some assets as well, but there's your potential future Cole or Verlander.
  23. SmellEm
    My girlfriend will be happy to know that despite the fact I didn't get her anything for Christmas I actually made several unsuccessful Ebay bids for really nice gifts she would have loved!
  24. SmellEm
    They should do it as helping the Yankees sign Cole will be the closest the Twins come to acquiring an ace. And considering that the front office is now floating Keuchel as an "impact" pitcher, despite the fact the guy couldn't even get a long term deal last year and is coming off a season with a 4.76 FIP, Happ is probably as good as we're going to get.
  25. SmellEm
    Thank goodness someone didn't feel the same way about Jack Morris in 1991 as the Twins were coming off a 74 win season. Or the 1985 team that was out of contention in August when they traded for Blyleven.
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