Twins stuff from around the Web (Fangraphs, Twitter, Athletic, non-local news sites, etc)

[Mike Sixel]

An article on Odo's fastball:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-best-fastball-of-2019/

[Mike Sixel]

[Mike Sixel]

Ben
1:07 Is this the Max Kepler you were expecting?

 

Keith Law
1:07 Yes but I was a year early, again.

 

http://meadowparty.com/blog/2019/06/21/klawchat-6-21-19/

[Vanimal46]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-zips-almost-midseason-update-american-league/

 

Zips projected standings halfway through the year... They have the Twins finishing with 98 wins this season.

[jkcarew]

 

Ben
1:07 Is this the Max Kepler you were expecting?

 

Keith Law
1:07 Yes but I was a year early, again.

 

http://meadowparty.com/blog/2019/06/21/klawchat-6-21-19/

Don't have any data to back it up...but it's at least my impression that Max has been incredibly streaky in his professional career. I'm not talking about stuff that shows up in 1st/2nd half, or even monthly, splits. But over 20- 30 PA...where he can be so hot or so cold that his numbers swing pretty dramatically, even when the denominators are big. But I agree it seems there's a breakout here, where both the peaks and troughs are going to be materially better/higher. Fun.

[Mike Sixel]

Sam: Have you heard anything on Royce Lewis? Numbers don’t look so great…thanks for the chat!

 

Keith Law: I’ve mentioned his swing & setup changes already … way too many moving parts. Not sure who taught him that but I imagine the Twins aren’t pleased.

 

Dustin: Is there any reason to temper Twins fan’s excitement for Alex Kiriloff? Do you see him getting called up in September?

 

Keith Law: No reason. Don’t think they add him to the 40-man just yet.

[yarnivek1972]

Some data about Kepler:

 

2017

 

April 12-21: 12 for 31, 5 2b, 3b, HR, 3 BB, 6 K

 

May 3-12: 2 for 23, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 7 K

 

May 13-27: 17 for 48, 6 2b, 3 HR, 5 BB, 7 K

 

July 1-9: 14 for 30, 5 2b, 3b, HR, 7 RBI, 5 BB, 3 K

 

July 29-Aug 10: 6 for 37, 2b, 3 HR, 0 BB, 5 K

 

Sep 21-28: 8 for 22, 3 2b, HR

 

 

2018

 

May 11-30: 12 for 62, 5 2b, 3b, 2 HR, 8 BB, 12 K

 

June 10-27: 5 for 46, 2 2b, HR, 4 BB, 9 K

 

July 5-11: 10 for 25, 2b, 3b, 2 HR, 4 BB, 2 K

 

Sep 5-12: 8 for 21, 3 2b, 4 BB, 4 K

 

2019

 

April 2-10: 12 for 36, 2b, 3 HR, 3 BB, 7 K

 

May 2-13: 7 for 46, 2b, HR, 4 BB, 7 K

 

May 17-27: 17 for 36, 7 2b, 3 HR, 4 BB, 4 K

 

May 30-Jun 5: 0 for 21, 2 BB, 7 K

 

 

So, yeah. I’d call that streaky. Moreso than others? Maybe. I have no reference to make that assesment.

[dbminn]

 

Some data about Kepler:

So, yeah. I’d call that streaky. Moreso than others? Maybe. I have no reference to make that assesment.

 

Here's a link to the Twins hitters and their stats by month. Look at OPS and you'll see that all of the hitters have good and bad runs. You can separate the data by week if you like, at the top-right of the page. 

 

Added: Okay, I sorted the weekly data. Seems Kepler has had 4 of the 15 best weeks on the team by OPS. Nobody else has more than 2. On the low side, Kep has 1 of the 15 worst weeks (and the 16th). Buxton, Rosario, Cave and Gonzalez have each had 2 rotten weeks. 

 

Maybe we notice Kepler's streaks because he's had so many good ones?

 

Also, everybody is streaky compared to Polanco. 

[David A]

Nice article on Berrios. He's characterized as a top 10-15 pitcher in the game. And, it's argued that he can be a cy young contender if he can just bury the curve against righties.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cy-young-award-is-attainable-for-jose-berrios/

[Mike Sixel]

PD
12:24 Is a team slugging percentage of .501 good?

 

AvatarJay Jaffe
12:25 heh, it (the Twins' current SLG) would break the record held by the 2003 Red Sox (.491). Yet another silly number from a silly season, offensively.

[Mike Sixel]

IsIt2020Yet?
1:12 What other teams besides the Dodgers figure to try and make a back of the bullpen move? Twins, Rays, missing anyone?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:12 Every. Single. Contender. Needs. Bullpen. Help. Because. You. Can. Never. Have. Too. Much. Pitching.

 

Ryan
1:29 The Twins haven't lost 3 games in a row yet this season. Since 1900, only the 1902 Pirates managed to avoid a 3 game losing streak all season. What do you think the chances are the Twins manage to go the entire season without a three game losing streak?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:31 Wow, that's cool, but I highly doubt they get through the season with no 3-game losing streak. They're plenty good but it also takes a lot of luck to avoid such a thing, and when you consider that they've only given four starts to pitchers out of their front five, you can imagine, say, a DL stint weakening the rotation and making such a streak possible in a given week.

 

Homers
1:51 Do the (almost) healthy Yankees catch the Twins in homers by EOS?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:51 I think so and said as much in today's piece.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jay-jaffe-fangraphs-chat-6-27-19/

[yarnivek1972]

IsIt2020Yet?

1:12 What other teams besides the Dodgers figure to try and make a back of the bullpen move? Twins, Rays, missing anyone?

AvatarJay Jaffe

1:12 Every. Single. Contender. Needs. Bullpen. Help. Because. You. Can. Never. Have. Too. Much. Pitching.

 

Ryan

1:29 The Twins haven't lost 3 games in a row yet this season. Since 1900, only the 1902 Pirates managed to avoid a 3 game losing streak all season. What do you think the chances are the Twins manage to go the entire season without a three game losing streak?

AvatarJay Jaffe

1:31 Wow, that's cool, but I highly doubt they get through the season with no 3-game losing streak. They're plenty good but it also takes a lot of luck to avoid such a thing, and when you consider that they've only given four starts to pitchers out of their front five, you can imagine, say, a DL stint weakening the rotation and making such a streak possible in a given week.

 

Homers

1:51 Do the (almost) healthy Yankees catch the Twins in homers by EOS?

AvatarJay Jaffe

1:51 I think so and said as much in today's piece.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jay-jaffe-fangraphs-chat-6-27-19/

There appears to be something wrong his keyboard. The “.” Symbol seems to be malfunctioning.

[SpicyGarvSauce]

 

IsIt2020Yet?
1:12 What other teams besides the Dodgers figure to try and make a back of the bullpen move? Twins, Rays, missing anyone?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:12 Every. Single. Contender. Needs. Bullpen. Help. Because. You. Can. Never. Have. Too. Much. Pitching.

 

Ryan
1:29 The Twins haven't lost 3 games in a row yet this season. Since 1900, only the 1902 Pirates managed to avoid a 3 game losing streak all season. What do you think the chances are the Twins manage to go the entire season without a three game losing streak?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:31 Wow, that's cool, but I highly doubt they get through the season with no 3-game losing streak. They're plenty good but it also takes a lot of luck to avoid such a thing, and when you consider that they've only given four starts to pitchers out of their front five, you can imagine, say, a DL stint weakening the rotation and making such a streak possible in a given week.

 

Homers
1:51 Do the (almost) healthy Yankees catch the Twins in homers by EOS?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:51 I think so and said as much in today's piece.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jay-jaffe-fangraphs-chat-6-27-19/

 

Jaffe is such a Yankees homer.

[Mike Sixel]

I already posted this in the minor league area, but many of you don't go there.....

 

mike sixel
1:47 Royce Lewis.....is his fall mostly that your fears of him at SS are confirmed? A year of not hitting in A+? Clearly his change to his hitting is not going well. Did he do that on his own? Thanks,

 

Keith Law
1:48 Much more about not hitting/visible changes to his mechanics. I have never bought into the claims that he'll stay at short: He's not good there, and he could be very good in CF, maybe a 70 or better defender there. Most organizations would probably have moved him but the Twins have an 80 defender in center in the majors, so that may be one reason why they haven't.

 

http://meadowparty.com/blog/2019/07/11/klawchat-7-11-19/

[USAFChief]

http://www.startribune.com/five-things-to-monitor-as-the-twins-emerge-from-the-all-star-break/512639012/

 

LENIII's take as the second half starts.

 

The takes themselves aren't that interesting, if you ask me, but count the number of typos, poorly worded sentences, and flat out sloppy writing. 

 

This is the Star Tribune. Do they no longer employ editors? 

 

I find it disturbing to see the decline of the print news industry. 

[howeda7]

 

http://www.startribune.com/five-things-to-monitor-as-the-twins-emerge-from-the-all-star-break/512639012/

 

LENIII's take as the second half starts.

 

The takes themselves aren't that interesting, if you ask me, but count the number of typos, poorly worded sentences, and flat out sloppy writing. 

 

This is the Star Tribune. Do they no longer employ editors? 

 

I find it disturbing to see the decline of the print news industry. 

Pretty sure they do, but far fewer. I doubt a blog post goes through an editor. And honestly with modern spell check and a writer with 20 years experience, there shouldn't be many typos.

[Mike Sixel]

Cheese: Brent Rooker putting up huge numbers. What keeps him back from MLB stardom?
1:00
Eric A Longenhagen: nodef value and mediocre breaking ball recog

 

Kris: How much reliever-risk is there with Jhoan Duran?
1:14
Eric A Longenhagen: i don’t think there’s a ton

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/eric-longenhagen-chat-7-12-19/

 

There is also a Royce Lewis question...

[ashbury]

What is reliever-risk? The risk that a starter turns out to have a ceiling as a reliever? Or a risk that he won't be able to adapt to the relief role if called on?

[Mike Sixel]

What is reliever-risk? The risk that a starter turns out to have a ceiling as a reliever? Or a risk that he won't be able to adapt to the relief role if called on?

Reliever risk is that because of command and or control issues, or stature, or pitch mix, that it is likely they won't actually be a starter.

[jkcarew]

Reliever risk is that because of command and or control issues, or stature, or pitch mix, that it is likely they won't actually be a starter.

Well stated. And in the case of a 21-year-old that stands 6-5 like Duran, I would agree with Longenhagen. No obvious reason to doubt that he could have the strength and leverage to maintain velocity through many innings. Of course, we’ll need to wait and see how many of his offerings will have major-league quality/command.

[Darius]

http://www.startribune.com/five-things-to-monitor-as-the-twins-emerge-from-the-all-star-break/512639012/

 

LENIII's take as the second half starts.

 

The takes themselves aren't that interesting, if you ask me, but count the number of typos, poorly worded sentences, and flat out sloppy writing.

 

This is the Star Tribune. Do they no longer employ editors?

 

I find it disturbing to see the decline of the print news industry.

These places just aren’t where you can get quality info anymore. Neal has gotten so far off the rails in terms of being impartial that you can’t take anything he writes/says at face value (even if it were well written, apparently).

 

I wonder if it has anything to do with Dozier calling him out in the clubhouse a few years back for saying the Twins wouldn’t be contenders (or something along those lines). But, he seems to be more concerned with keeping certain sources within the Twins (maybe elsewhere) appeased than reporting reality often times.

 

Barreiro actually had a good quote on him on KFAN within the last couple of days. Neal has apparently been flaunting how wise the Twins were for not signing Kimbrel because he’s had some early struggles (in a microscopic sample size, mind you). To paraphrase, if the Twins had signed Kimbrel and he had the same struggles, Neal would be ripping any critics because of SSS, no spring training, etc. I was glad someone else is finally noticing (even though it may have been toungue in cheek, it’s spot on).

 

Then, when he takes a stand on some of these stances developed solely out of self preservation, he gets extremely dismissive and condescending towards any average joe that disagrees (often with the right take), like he is the gate keeper of baseball knowledge and will chooseth onto whom he will bestow enlightenment (he and Doogie are both elite in this department, and not much else).

[Mike Sixel]

Jhoan Duran, RHP, Twins (45 FV to 50 fV):
Duran’s velo is up, with the right-hander sitting 95-99 now. The secondaries are good, as is the frame. He’s athletic, and strike throwing has improved but is still just okay. He could continue to rise if that aspect turns a corner, which is possible given Duran’s grace and body control.

 

Interestingly, they did not move Lewis down like everyone else is.......

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/we-adjusted-several-prospects-rankings/

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Jhoan Duran, RHP, Twins (45 FV to 50 fV):
Duran’s velo is up, with the right-hander sitting 95-99 now. The secondaries are good, as is the frame. He’s athletic, and strike throwing has improved but is still just okay. He could continue to rise if that aspect turns a corner, which is possible given Duran’s grace and body control.

 

Interestingly, they did not move Lewis down like everyone else is.......

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/we-adjusted-several-prospects-rankings/

Hadn't checked on Duran's season in awhile and noticed this oddity:

 

3.44 ERA, 1.17 WHIP.... 1-8 record. His teammates must hate him or something.

[Thrylos]

 

Well stated. And in the case of a 21-year-old that stands 6-5 like Duran, I would agree with Longenhagen. No obvious reason to doubt that he could have the strength and leverage to maintain velocity through many innings.

 

Do you remember Tyler Robertson?  Also 6-5 with the physique of a defensive end, but his fastball was 85-88 mph. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Do you remember Tyler Robertson?  Also 6-5 with the physique of a defensive end, but his fastball was 85-88 mph. 

Endurance is different than maximum effort or peak but, yeah, there are plenty of huge guys out there who just didn't throw very hard (Jon Rauch was another).

[Mike Sixel]

I did send a follow up, indicating I was talking about KLAW and MLBPipeline....since his reply was a bit "you are stupid to ask"....

 

[nicksaviking]

These places just aren’t where you can get quality info anymore. Neal has gotten so far off the rails in terms of being impartial that you can’t take anything he writes/says at face value (even if it were well written, apparently).

I wonder if it has anything to do with Dozier calling him out in the clubhouse a few years back for saying the Twins wouldn’t be contenders (or something along those lines). But, he seems to be more concerned with keeping certain sources within the Twins (maybe elsewhere) appeased than reporting reality often times.

Barreiro actually had a good quote on him on KFAN within the last couple of days. Neal has apparently been flaunting how wise the Twins were for not signing Kimbrel because he’s had some early struggles (in a microscopic sample size, mind you). To paraphrase, if the Twins had signed Kimbrel and he had the same struggles, Neal would be ripping any critics because of SSS, no spring training, etc. I was glad someone else is finally noticing (even though it may have been toungue in cheek, it’s spot on).

Then, when he takes a stand on some of these stances developed solely out of self preservation, he gets extremely dismissive and condescending towards any average joe that disagrees (often with the right take), like he is the gate keeper of baseball knowledge and will chooseth onto whom he will bestow enlightenment (he and Doogie are both elite in this department, and not much else).

I’ve met La Velle, he seemed like a really nice guy, easy to talk to and relatable. My immediate instinct is to defend him.

 

That’s probably the same instinct La Velle gets while writing about the players, coaches and front office, and unlike me, he probably spent more than ten minutes getting to know his subjects.

[nicksaviking]

I did send a follow up, indicating I was talking about KLAW and MLBPipeline....since his reply was a bit "you are stupid to ask"....

 

https://twitter.com/kileymcd/status/1150909182931021824?s=20

I love it. Swing changes seem to be a dime a dozen in the minors. If it isn’t working, you can be sure it will be scrapped. Tinker away Royce, we aren’t expecting to see you at the MLB level this year either way.

[bird]

 

Jhoan Duran, RHP, Twins (45 FV to 50 fV):
Duran’s velo is up, with the right-hander sitting 95-99 now. The secondaries are good, as is the frame. He’s athletic, and strike throwing has improved but is still just okay. He could continue to rise if that aspect turns a corner, which is possible given Duran’s grace and body control.

 

Interestingly, they did not move Lewis down like everyone else is.......

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/we-adjusted-several-prospects-rankings/

 

 

In the ALC, 3 teams garnered an additional 50FV prospect (Witt is 55FV actually) via the draft. There are a total of 18 prospects with a FV of 50 or above, and the Twins hold 5 of them, as do CWS and Detroit, and Cleveland has 4. So in terms of high-end talent in the pipeline, it appears that outside of KCR, things are reasonably even, with CWS and Detroit maybe having a slight edge because of a couple of mercurial talents.

 

This evenness extends down, with the Twins having maybe a couple more guys in the 45FV category. 

 

But they still hold a considerable and unquestionable advantage when it comes to depth. They have 41 prospects who get at least a 40FV grade. Cleveland's fairly close, with 34 such prospects. KCR has 28, CWS and Detroit each have 24.

 

It's interesting, to me at least, to note some of the names who can only muster a 40FV. It includes Walner, Rooker, Gordon, Gonsalves, Enlow, Alcala, Blankenhorn, Baddoo, Raley, and Wade, among many others. And guys like Jaylin Davis, Ben Rortvedt, Lewin Diaz and Zander Wiel are still at 35FV. I just find it interesting that so many of the prospects that we get cranked up about aren't that highly regarded at the moment. It's fluid when it comes to individual names, we know that.

[yarnivek1972]

Out of curiousity, where did Areaez rate coming into this year? 35 or less?

 

Which simply proves no one really knows how a guy will do at the MLB level until he starts playing at the MLB level.