Article: Twins To Sign Lance Lynn

[Nine of twelve]

Haven't read through the thread yet, but I'll make this observation. It's rare for a team to have a significant postseason run with no left handed starting pitcher. It would not surprise me to see the front office trade for one if the team looks strong during the month of July.

[Nine of twelve]

What was your favorite Anibal Sanchez moment?

His release.

[KirbyDome89]

 

If his K rate is down and his walk rate and HR Rate is up... Fielding Independent Stats are not going to look good... Especially with a BABIP of .244. 

 

However... to think that he was extraordinarily lucky and we are talking nearly unprecedented type luck for his difference between ERA and FIP... Is also not considering that he has never had an ERA Below 4.00 in his career. 

 

Somehow Someway... Lance Lynn seems to get it done. 

Of course, K rate, BB rate, and HR rate are all factors in FIP. The point was that they all moved in the wrong direction, and the HR rate shockingly so.

 

I agree, some guys just seem to get by with wider margins between ERA and FIP. They're the exception to the rule. His FIP-ERA pre TJ was usually around .5, which I believe would put him into that "exception," group, but last season that FIP-ERA margin tripled. Even for a guy who typically has an ERA lower than his FIP that's an alarming spike. He's coming off a season missed with TJ surgery, followed by a year where his peripheral stats dipped to career lows, and now he's pitching in the AL. That doesn't instill a ton of confidence in me. 

[Riverbrian]

Of course, K rate, BB rate, and HR rate are all factors in FIP. The point was that they all moved in the wrong direction, and the HR rate shockingly so.

 

I agree, some guys just seem to get by with wider margins between ERA and FIP. They're the exception to the rule. His FIP-ERA pre TJ was usually around .5, which I believe would put him into that "exception," group, but last season that FIP-ERA margin tripled. Even for a guy who typically has an ERA lower than his FIP that's an alarming spike. He's coming off a season missed with TJ surgery, followed by a year where his peripheral stats dipped to career lows, and now he's pitching in the AL. That doesn't instill a ton of confidence in me.

Might be the reason why he settled for a 1 year deal. Might have found longer terms not coming his way. Twins might be giving him a chance to stabilize things post TJ for a bigger pay day.

 

I like a guy getting a chance to prove himself with a chip on his shoulder. As long as there are no problems with his shoulder.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Well... I'm done complaining. They picked up 2 SPs, made a huge upgrade to the lineup, and added 2 (maybe 3) solid arms to the pen. I wanted Darvish, but if someone had told me that the Twins would walk away with Lynn (my number 2), Reed, Rodney, Morrison, and Odorizzi, I'd have been ecstatic.

 

This team has a legitimate shot at 95 wins. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

Might be the reason why he settled for a 1 year deal. Might have found longer terms not coming his way.

That has been my contention the whole time. I'm not sure why pointing that out is being "tough," on the FO but hopefully he makes good on proving himself. 

[Circus Boy]

 

I'd say we definitely got a quantity of higher quality over the mostly mediocrity that was the Twins staff in 2017.

My wife's been waiting 25 years for me to break out of mostly mediocrity.

[Teflon]

 

The signing puts the Twins payroll near $130 million for the year, up about $25 million from last year and the highest payroll in team history

 

Kudos to the Twins for spending HALF of the additional $50 million they received in the sale of BamTech.

[Riverbrian]

 

That has been my contention the whole time. I'm not sure why pointing that out is being "tough," on the FO but hopefully he makes good on proving himself. 

 

I think you'll find a wide variety of opinions on TwinsDaily. 

 

I once typed that my leg hurt and someone responded with "no it doesn't". 

 

 

[howieramone2]

 

I think this puts an explanation mark for the new front office's off-season acquisitions!

I predicted this off season would be the greatest in franchise history, but unfortunately it got deleted.

[drivlikejehu]

 

These are short term deals. They have to do the same thing next year or the year after. This is one nice of season, I'm not ready to crown them yet. But, it is a nice of season!

 

The problem is that no one is "crowning" the Twins' front office . . . and also, every team signs short-term free agent deals (even if they also sign some long-term ones). So I guess this is really just another repetition of how the F.O. is a failure for not getting an ace-caliber starter this off-season, which you emphasize later in the thread by saying that no team has ever succeeded through short-term FA deals with zero level of evidence.

 

----

 

Something I like about having both Lynn and Odorizzi is that, between the two of them, there is a pretty decent chance of *one* significant bounce back. That's obviously important from a post-season perspective, because a bunch of #4s aren't ideal for the playoff rotation. While they likely won't have a true #1 guy, that's not a requirement to win the WS (e.g., 2015 Royals, 2013 Red Sox, etc.). 

 

The teams without an elite starter did have good depth, though.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Therefore...

 

Falvine = TR?

 

I don't think so..... we're now witness to a series of trades and signings well above scrap heap level @ perceived strong value plays. And it's not just agents who misjudge the markets, it's contention vs. 29 other teams to perceive value and/or succeed or fail at acting upon said value.

 

Odorizzi = Santiago? Please

Lynn = Pelfrey? Nope. TR couldn't wait to extend injured mediocrity

LoMo = ByungHo Park? Not in this galaxy

Castro = JR Murphy? Major misperceptions of C value by previous regime

Reed = Boshers? Is there a FA RP down to his last shot that TR didn't covet?

nope, I’m saying TR never had this kind of offseason where he could really play hardball like Levine has. TR overpaid for Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes because the market was there for the better talent to take contracts outside of his ability/willingness to pay.

 

This new FO has done really good things, but they’ll need to do it again next year. I can’t wait to watcj

[USAFChief]

I think you'll find a wide variety of opinions on TwinsDaily. 

 

I once typed that my leg hurt and someone responded with "no it doesn't". 

No you didn’t.

[DocBauer]

I'm not savy in the modern day metrics. I hear them. I understand a little. I'm a little old fashioned and look at K/9, BB/9, WHIP, etc. But I get it, regardless of which stats you look at, guy slid some last year.

 

Maybe it's just me, but when a guy gets it done pretty consistently for a few years, then misses a season due to surgery, then isn't quite his previous self the next season, I'm going to line upon the "dud it before" side of the argument, especially when history also has shown pitchers coming back from TJ seem to take a step forward their second year back

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

These are short term deals. They have to do the same thing next year or the year after. This is one nice of season, I'm not ready to crown them yet. But, it is a nice of season!

Well... not really. They have an option on Morrison and Odorizzi is arg eligible in 2019 as well. And they can expect to see a healthy Pineda in 2019 as well. They also picked up a second year of Reed. 

 

Other than Lynn, the front office locked up the guys you might want to see locked up for more than one season. They didn't get a second year on Rodney but does anyone want that anyway?

 

The front office did a very good job of dipping their toes into the water without overcommitting to any single player. It's a pretty impressive feat and given how little the front office paid to do it all, several other MLB front offices should be kinda embarrassed right now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I take Darvish. I only care about this team being formidable in the playoffs and I don't have any faith in Lynn or Odorizzi matching up with the top of the other rotations in the AL.

That said, they couldn't/didn't get Darvish. The front office was active and bold. I don't like all the players brought in, but they made splashes unlike any other year. I'm glad for the effort and the deals are short, they can try again next year.

Dunno, I kinda lean with the "more is better" approach for an 85 win team. If 50% of your pitching staff is a black hole, one guy might not get it done in the regular season. Picking up two pretty good starters and two pretty good relievers might reap more rewards on a staff that flawed.

 

If the Twins were a 90+ team, then obviously you want that front line starter because it's harder to gain wins at that level. But the Twins certainly didn't have that problem; they could shore up half a dozen roster spots and potentially gain more wins in the process, though obviously your team looks weaker on paper in postseason play.

 

But if you don't make the postseason at all, that frontline starter is a moot point. And I think the Twins' acquisitions have given them a better chance at the postseason than Darvish alone.

[kab21]

 

I literally praised the moves, just said I'm not willing to crown them yet.... Literally praised the moves.

I have no idea what you even mean by this. Nobody is crowning anyone anything. 

This was a very good offseason where the Twins were able to get a lot done. They made 6 significant additions (plus Pineda) and kept any future payroll damage. They took care of the short term issues in the bullpen. And arguably most of these additions (except Lynn) are under control for two seasons so they don't have to do it again next year. Signing contracts for any longer period of time quickly becomes a very risky issue. Which of these players do you want to guarantee 3 or more years to?

What more could you expect in a single offseason?

[Otto von Ballpark]

I know there are some Lynn skeptics here -- would any have preferred Arrieta? Just signed for 3 years, $75 mil with Philadelphia.

[Squirrel]

I know there are some Lynn skeptics here -- would any have preferred Arrieta? Just signed for 3 years, $75 mil with Philadelphia.

Wow, no way I’d have given Arrieta that. I’d have been back to ‘What are they thinking!?!?!?’ if our FO committed to him for 3 yrs.

[jimmer]

 

I know there are some Lynn skeptics here -- would any have preferred Arrieta? Just signed for 3 years, $75 mil with Philadelphia.

nope

[kab21]

 

Wow, no way I’d have given Arrieta that. I’d have been back to ‘What are they thinking!?!?!?’ if our FO committed to him for 3 yrs.

3/75 was my upper limit for Arrieta but I significantly prefer 1 year of Lance Lynn. 

And my upper limit of 3/75 was when the Twins hadn't added any pitchers and needed to make a move. The FO though shrewdly avoided this though.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I know there are some Lynn skeptics here -- would any have preferred Arrieta? Just signed for 3 years, $75 mil with Philadelphia.

That's not a terrible deal, as you're only on the hook for three seasons but that's a lot of money per season.

 

I'll take Lynn, thanks.

[Squirrel]

3/75 was my upper limit for Arrieta but I significantly prefer 1 year of Lance Lynn. 

And my upper limit of 3/75 was when the Twins hadn't added any pitchers and needed to make a move. The FO though shrewdly avoided this though.

Yeah, if the off season had gone differently I might have begrudgingly been okay with that eventually if we hadn’t done anything else. I just think he’s going to have a huge drop off. I’m not sure I’d have given him a guaranteed 3rd year.

 

And I agree. I like what we ended up doing much better.

[KirbyDome89]

 

nope, I’m saying TR never had this kind of offseason where he could really play hardball like Levine has. TR overpaid for Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes because the market was there for the better talent to take contracts outside of his ability/willingness to pay.

This new FO has done really good things, but they’ll need to do it again next year. I can’t wait to watcj

TR never had this kind of money to work with either. MN was a lower tier payroll every season during his first tenure, and when he came back after 2011 the Twins started slashing $$ and "rebuilding." It's disingenuous to say he was incapable of making the moves we've seen when he never really had the opportunity to do so.  

[Riverbrian]

 

These are short term deals. They have to do the same thing next year or the year after. This is one nice of season, I'm not ready to crown them yet. But, it is a nice of season!

 

They absolutely gotta do it again next year... They gotta do it again every time they gotta make a decision... which might be daily.    

[jimmer]

Why do we keep talking about what Ryan did or didn't do and/or could or couldn't do?  We don't know what he was allowed to spend.  We don't know if he was frugal or spent all of what he could. And even if we did, it's irrelevant now. 

 

We need to move on instead of continuously slamming/defending his moves/non-moves. He is gone.

[ewen21]

Help me understand how that Arietta deal is so bad when some folks here were upset we didn't outbid Chicago to get Darvish.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Help me understand how that Arietta deal is so bad when some folks here were upset we didn't outbid Chicago to get Darvish.

because prices on free agents are dropping right now

[jimmer]

 

because prices on free agents are dropping right now

and because Darvish is much better and getting paid less per year.

[USAFChief]

I would have preferred the Arrieta deal, but it’s close, and even I understand committing $75m is a lot different than committing $12m.

 

They’ve done quite a remarkable makeover of the pitching staff. That’s enough.