Article: Twins To Sign Lance Lynn

[Vanimal46]

Now the Twins don't need to feel any urgency about promoting any of their top pitching prospects. This means that as it stands today, the Twins will have something like a MLB average pitching staff, which is saying a lot.

 

This reminds me how the Vikings grabbed a couple key FA's for the offensive line, and how just having an average NFL O line was a revelation. Same could happen here for the Twins. An average pitching staff could make this team a real competitor.

Concur. And ideally it keeps Hughes and/or Sanchez from the opening day rotation.

 

Pray for the injury gods to stay away and this team is a contender for the division title.

Edited March 11, 2018 by Vanimal46

[twinsfanstreif]

Yeah.  There is another part of that equation here:  Lots of the Angels' helium is based on Ohtani helium who so far seems unable to get AAAA players out.  Ohtani has been so bad that the Angels had him pitch at the back fields his last start so will not attract attention.  That team will be a circus this season.  Mark my words

Also he was supposed to be a two way player and so far he looks lost at the plate, it doesn't look good for him so far, now I'm glad we dodged that bullet

[cmoss84]

 

Odorizzi was acquired straight up for Palacios, and Lynn wasn't fielding interest anywhere near the level he'd hoped for. MN isn't pulling one over on TB and the rest of the league with these acquisitions. There are reasons the Twins were able to bring these two in for "virtually nothing." They each have question marks after their respective performances last season. Yes, they're better than Mejia and Hughes, and I said as much in an earlier post, but that isn't exactly a high bar to clear. 

 

I gave the FO credit for pivoting and solidifying a starting rotation that badly needed it, but I'm not going to pretend like either of these two are front end talent. Realistic would be a better adjective for those who don't share your confident outlook. 

Isn't this true for this year's entire FA class? 

3.38 ERA in nearly 1000 inn...he wanted to come here. Who knows how he will pitch this year, but this was a REALLY good signing. 

Some of you guys are tough! 

[GP830]

I have a feeling Cobb will be swayed here too by his buddies. Also— Holland is still out there. I have to imagine Falvine is still evaluating.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Isn't this true for this year's entire FA class? 

3.38 ERA in nearly 1000 inn...he wanted to come here. Who knows how he will pitch this year, but this was a REALLY good signing. 

Some of you guys are tough! 

Yes, the market was certainly was down; Darvish moved from 6/160 to 6/126 and JD Martinez "settled," for 5/110. Teams are adjusting their approach to FA but $$ is still being spent; Wade Davis just signed the largest relief contract ever and Eric Hosmer somehow was able to coax an eighth year out of San Diego. It's fair to say most FAs didn't get exactly what they were looking for, but the upper tier players still walked away with significant deals. Lynn just isn't anywhere near that group and I think that the interest/offers he received reflected that.  

 

Yeah his career 3.38 ERA looks nice, but his 2016 TJ surgery followed by a 2017 season where he posted a career high 4.82 FIP, a decreased SO rate, an increased BB rate, and a HR rate that nearly doubled in the NL makes me nervous. 

[David HK]

I've been waiting for this- I think we're looking at a solid 15 wins from this guy, and I think we're contending for the Central.

[RaoulDuke]

What a weird off season.  Losing out on Darvish and watching a lot of good relievers come off the board to end up with Rodney were super frustrating.  In the end however 5 solid pitchers and a big bat were added all for minimal commitments and an expendable prospect and middling draft pick.  

 

The offense is legit and the rotation and pen are both much improved and have quality depth.

 

A long Buxton extension would be the cherry on top. 

Edited March 11, 2018 by RaoulDuke

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Are you insinuating that what was accomplished by the braintrust this offseason might have been mere luck or accidental?

 

Pardon me, but all evidence suggests that what was demonstrated this offseason was a lesson taught from a pair of sharp, well-trained 21st Century baseball business minds- accumulating valuable and talented pieces that build upon last years' success- without busting the budget, and without damaging continued future improvements and upgrades incoming from the farm pipeline.

 

Let's revisit this topic one year from now; what we've seen thus far suggests that the braintrust this offseason have laid the groundwork for further similar personnel upgrades next offseason, while simultaneously securing and extending the optimum veteran core going forward.

 

Short term moves or not, they have not shown anything thus far that suggests that this team isn't being positioned for an extended run well into the 2020s.

oportunity may not be the same next year. It doesn’t matter how good you are, if the opportunity to sign someone who misjudged the market doesn’t exist, the FO won’t get the same perceived “value” they’ll get scrap heap ala TR Edited March 11, 2018 by Sconnie

[AlwaysinModeration]

Lynn has posted 3+ WAR the last three years he has pitched; 2017, 2015, and 2014.

 

The Twins have had exactly one pitcher post 3+ WAR in each of the past four seasons; Ervin, Ervin, Gibson, and Hughes.

 

In short, Lynn is likely to be one of the best two pitchers on the team this year.

 

Add to it the fact that he was signed for a single year at a bargain price, this is an excellent signing. There is almost nothing not to like about this deal.

 

Well done, Thad Levine.

[laloesch]

Lynn has posted 3+ WAR the last three years he has pitched; 2017, 2015, and 2014.

The Twins have had exactly one pitcher post 3+ WAR in each of the past four seasons; Ervin, Ervin, Gibson, and Hughes.

In short, Lynn is likely to be one of the best two pitchers on the team this year.

Add to it the fact that he was signed for a single year at a bargain price, this is an excellent signing. There is almost nothing not to like about this deal.

Well done, Thad Levine.

 

 

YES!! 3+ War and an average of 8+ career K's per game. This is not a bad deal. I can see why the Twins wanted a two year deal but i'm still happy with this. Buys more time for the prospects in AA/AAA to advance.

[Doctor Wu]

I sense a big dose of excitement, if not optimism, on the board after the Lynn signing. Very cool! All of us long-suffering Twins fans can be forgiven for feeling excited at the moment.

[alarp33]

Sanchez released to make room on 40-man

[Don Walcott]

Sanchez released to make room on 40-man

My new favorite Sanchez moment.

[wabene]

oportunity may not be the same next year. It doesn’t matter how good you are, if the opportunity to sign someone who misjudged the market doesn’t exist, the FO won’t get the same perceived “value” they’ll get scrap heap ala TR

I agree the same opportunity most likely won't exist but I don't see TR making this splash and I don't see Falvine I the scrap heap.

[LeatherAntenna]

Last I saw, Vegas had given the Twins an over/under of 82.5, which would leave them just out of the second Wild Card spot, held by the Angels with an over/under of 84.5. This should close that gap.

 

But the larger point is that the Twins are on the fringes of competitiveness, and that's when it makes sense to bite the bullet and spend a little extra money to help out that postseason appearance. This doesn't guarantee anything, but it helps it along. The Twins chances of another postseason appearance were helped quite a bit today.

Doesn’t this make the Twins a 90+ win team this year, especially with the condition of the division this year?

[kab21]

This FO just can't win. There would have been criticisms about the back end of a 6 year Darvish contract or a 4 yr Lynn/Cobb contract. But now there are criticisms because the FO signed guys that will only be here one year (Lynn - Rodney - Duke). Yes, it would be nice to have an option or a second year on Lynn but the one year deal is what got him to sign here. I will be happy that he is here in 2018 and I will be happy that the Twins can be free of Rodney and Duke next year if they want to.

[Mike Sixel]

Are you insinuating that what was accomplished by the braintrust this offseason might have been mere luck or accidental?

 

Pardon me, but all evidence suggests that what was demonstrated this offseason was a lesson taught from a pair of sharp, well-trained 21st Century baseball business minds- accumulating valuable and talented pieces that build upon last years' success- without busting the budget, and without damaging continued future improvements and upgrades incoming from the farm pipeline.

 

Let's revisit this topic one year from now; what we've seen thus far suggests that the braintrust this offseason have laid the groundwork for further similar personnel upgrades next offseason, while simultaneously securing and extending the optimum veteran core going forward.

 

Short term moves or not, they have not shown anything thus far that suggests that this team isn't being positioned for an extended run well into the 2020s.

I don't see the word luck anywhere in my post. I'm suggesting it isn't easy to be successful signing short term deals year after year. That's been the contention of this site since it was founded, and I'm agreeing. Maybe they have a secret formula that has never worked in MLB before, but I'm not willing to draw that conclusion already. If others are, no skin off my nose.

[wabene]

This FO just can't win. There would have been criticisms about the back end of a 6 year Darvish contract or a 4 yr Lynn/Cobb contract. But now there are criticisms because the FO signed guys that will only be here one year (Lynn - Rodney - Duke). Yes, it would be nice to have an option or a second year on Lynn but the one year deal is what got him to sign here. I will be happy that he is here in 2018 and I will be happy that the Twins can be free of Rodney and Duke next year if they want to.

"there is no such thing as a bad one year deal" unknown

[Mike Sixel]

This FO just can't win. There would have been criticisms about the back end of a 6 year Darvish contract or a 4 yr Lynn/Cobb contract. But now there are criticisms because the FO signed guys that will only be here one year (Lynn - Rodney - Duke). Yes, it would be nice to have an option or a second year on Lynn but the one year deal is what got him to sign here. I will be happy that he is here in 2018 and I will be happy that the Twins can be free of Rodney and Duke next year if they want to.

I literally praised the moves, just said I'm not willing to crown them yet.... Literally praised the moves.

[jokin]

 

oportunity may not be the same next year. It doesn’t matter how good you are, if the opportunity to sign someone who misjudged the market doesn’t exist, the FO won’t get the same perceived “value” they’ll get scrap heap ala TR

 

Therefore...

 

Falvine = TR?

 

I don't think so..... we're now witness to a series of trades and signings well above scrap heap level @ perceived strong value plays. And it's not just agents who misjudge the markets, it's contention vs. 29 other teams to perceive value and/or succeed or fail at acting upon said value.

 

Odorizzi = Santiago? Please

Lynn = Pelfrey? Nope. TR couldn't wait to extend injured mediocrity

LoMo = ByungHo Park? Not in this galaxy

Castro = JR Murphy? Major misperceptions of C value by previous regime

Reed = Boshers? Is there a FA RP down to his last shot that TR didn't covet?

Edited March 11, 2018 by jokin

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm suggesting it isn't easy to be successful signing short term deals year after year.

Good point. It has already been referenced how Bill Smith once had a good offseason of short term deals too. I think the current offseason/team/FO should turn out better, of course, but the question remains, how much so.

[wabene]

At 6'5"and a listed 280 maybe Lynn can take a little heat off Sano

[jokin]

 

I don't see the word luck anywhere in my post. 

 

"Insinuating" means you didn't say the word. It's a means of fleshing out in conversation of just what you do mean. I think you added some clarity here. Thank you.

 

A good GM has to recognize his current needs, where his team is at in the competitive cycle, where the main competition is similarly at, and then extending these concepts out in time via game theory the what ifs in the timeline for going all in. So far, the braintrust has avoided jumping into tempting, yet dangerously expensive risky FA or blockbuster trade gambles or hasty internal personnel moves that either hamstring the team or leave gaping holes going forward.

 

The results of where we are now has been more than luck (even though you didn't insinuate that it was      ). My take from all of this in this first 1+ year is that these guys have been both prudent and shrewd (even though still wet behind the ears) and suggests that there's no reason yet to think they can't continue in this prudent yet shrewd vein going forward.

 

 

Edited March 11, 2018 by jokin

[jokin]

 

This FO just can't win. There would have been criticisms about the back end of a 6 year Darvish contract or a 4 yr Lynn/Cobb contract. But now there are criticisms because the FO signed guys that will only be here one year (Lynn - Rodney - Duke). Yes, it would be nice to have an option or a second year on Lynn but the one year deal is what got him to sign here. I will be happy that he is here in 2018 and I will be happy that the Twins can be free of Rodney and Duke next year if they want to.

 

This + 1000.

[Riverbrian]

 

 

 

Yeah his career 3.38 ERA looks nice, but his 2016 TJ surgery followed by a 2017 season where he posted a career high 4.82 FIP, a decreased SO rate, an increased BB rate, and a HR rate that nearly doubled in the NL makes me nervous. 

 

If his K rate is down and his walk rate and HR Rate is up... Fielding Independent Stats are not going to look good... Especially with a BABIP of .244. 

 

However... to think that he was extraordinarily lucky and we are talking nearly unprecedented type luck for his difference between ERA and FIP... Is also not considering that he has never had an ERA Below 4.00 in his career. 

 

Somehow Someway... Lance Lynn seems to get it done. 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

I literally praised the moves, just said I'm not willing to crown them yet.... Literally praised the moves.

 

Crowns can be purchased at Crown's R Us... when you decide to schedule a coronation. 

[jokin]

 

If his K rate is down and his walk rate and HR Rate is up... Fielding Independent Stats are not going to look good... Especially with a BABIP of .244. 

 

However... to think that he was extraordinarily lucky and we are talking nearly unprecedented type luck for his difference between ERA and FIP... Is also not considering that he has never had an ERA Below 4.00 in his career. 

 

Somehow Someway... Lance Lynn seems to get it done. 

 

Just hopefully not like Hector Santiago....

[Riverbrian]

 

Just hopefully not like Hector Santiago....

 

I'm trying to be positive and happy

 

And you got to go all Hector on us. 

 

Listen... Hector is left handed and everyone knows that lefties do not follow the rules of nature like right handers do. 

 

 

[Han Joelo]

Is it coincidence this news broke about the same time the Twins were busy scoring 9 runs in the first?  I imagine that Levine texted Lynn after about the third batter with the offer, and Lynn texted back something like, "if they can bat around without making an out, I'll sign it."

 

Seriously, though--while having a winning team may not be a prerequisite to signing these types of deals, it certainly can't hurt.  If a guy is going to "settle," I guess he can still take solace in using his free agency to choose to go somewhere he thinks he can win, and join a positive environment.

 

Rather than overpay/outbid for a guy who maybe doesn't want to be here, I think moves like they've made have an unquantifiable chemistry bonus as well.

[jorgenswest]

I don't see the word luck anywhere in my post. I'm suggesting it isn't easy to be successful signing short term deals year after year. That's been the contention of this site since it was founded, and I'm agreeing. Maybe they have a secret formula that has never worked in MLB before, but I'm not willing to draw that conclusion already. If others are, no skin off my nose.

I agree.

 

The only road to winning for a small to mid revenue team is devloping minor league talent. The Twins won’t sustain success unless they develop their own pitching. Signing free agent pitchers whether short or long term will not lead to sustained success.

 

The free agent signings this winter are great. Lynn is a great add on a short term deal. The long term success relies on their ability to develop their talent to success at the major league level.